Favoured Coalition Partnership

[AZOffaly]

But Hardy, look at it like this.

51 Fine Gael plus 20 Labour plus 6 greens = 77. Add in the PDs and you are at 79. Now look at the independents. Michael Lowry would support that proposal, as would (probably) Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory. That's 82.

I cannot see Jackie Healy Rae or Beverly Flynn making Enda Taoiseach. Also it is a stretch for Mary Harney and Noel Grealish (gene Pool FFers in the PDS) going with Fine Gael, but anyway.

That means that Fine Gael, in my view, will have to make a deal with Sinn Fein to get power, and that the government would be
Fine Gael, Labour, the PDs, the Greens, Sinn Fein, Michael Lowry, Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory. I don't think that's workable.

On the other hand, Fianna Fail and the Greens is an immediate stable government, as is FF and Labour. Even Bertie's favoured option (publicly at least) of the PDs, with Healy-Rae, Flynn, McGrath and Gregory is a much more stable looking arrangement.

I can't see the appetite for another election, especially amongst the Greens or PDs or the Indos, who are nervous after the big squeeze, so I think they will deal, and FF will have to handle the situation very carefully as they transition to Cowen, assuming that is what happens.

[Hardy]

Sorry AZ – I didn't make myself clear. What I meant was that I expect FF to form a government, but that I think it has now become more likely that it will be with Cowen as Taoiseach, because anyone sitting down to deal with FF may be forced, by media pressure and the fear of what will come out at the tribunal, to make that a condition.

[AZOffaly]

Very possible. The bonfires will be burning around Clara for 6 months.

[Declan]

The Chairman of the Mahon Tribunal has said he categorically rejects claims that the inquiry is biased against the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern.
Judge Alan Mahon said Mr Ahern had been treated exactly the same as any other witness appearing before the tribunal.
He was replying to what he called 'unprecedented' criticism yesterday by the Taoiseach's laywer, Conor Maguire SC, who said the tribunal risked interfering with the democratic process by circulating evidence prior to the election.
Judge Mahon said the tribunal was required to send out evidence before a module starts and it is sent on the condition of confidentiality.
He said the tribunal had investigated the leaks and brought legal proceedings against The Irish Times.
Meanwhile, opposition politicians have been commenting on the possible impact of the proceedings on the formation of a new government.
Joan Burton of the Labour Party said it was too early to say if the issue would have a bearing, but the Deputy Leader of Fine Gael, Richard Bruton, said there did seem to be clear problems with the Taoiseach's account of his dealings.Fine Gael's Fergus O'Dowd said the opening statement at yesterday's sitting of the Mahon Tribunal raises 'serious issues for parties or individuals considering supporting a Fianna Fáil-led government'.

However, the Minister of State, Brian Lenihan, said it was his understanding that counsel for the tribunal accepted that the matters could be explained.Mr Lenihan said he did not believe that the proceedings would have any impact on the formation of a government.The tribunal's inquiries into Mr Ahern's finances re-started yesterday after being suspended for the duration of the General Election campaign.The statement by Mr Ahern's legal team followed evidence from tribunal lawyers who say they have found discrepancies in Mr Ahern's explanation for bank lodgements in the 1990s.

[muppet]

 This election has thrown up quite a few dilemmas.

1. The electorate has sent a clear message that it doesn't want the PD's in government. It's elected candidates received 4950 & 2735 first preferences. That does not represent a mandate.

2. With the exception of Lowry and Gregory we have have hotch potch of independent TDs who just scraped in and will not want another election in the short term. Which ever way they vote they will want it to last.

3. While Healy-Rae and Flynn are considered FF gene-pool the former nearly brough down the 1997 government over one of his many rows with O'Donohue over taking credit for developments in Kerry. ( That this could happen shows that some of our politicians are really the dregs of the earth ). Flynn on the other hand has her own problems and may not want to be the one who prevents her own constituency getting a Taoiseach as it could hurt her next time.

4. Of the larger parties I'd say FF wouldn't fancy going back to the electorate while FG would be only too delighted to go again.

Bearing in mind the above I suspect we will have a minority FF government but I'm not that sure it will last long. The only chance of stability is to replace Bertie quickly. Cowan is eing calimed by some here as a superhero among politicians. It was easy for him to sit as a sniper during the last month, sitting in the hot seat would be a different matter altogether. I'm not sure his abrasive style would endear himself to the public.

I'll go for another election within 18 months.  

[AZOffaly]

I'm not sure his abrasive style would endear himself to the public.

Agreed Muppet. That's the one area I think Cowen would need to change. His public demeanour is way too abrasive for people to warm to him, despite what he may be like in private.

I do not think he is a superman politcian, but I think he is astute, direct and as honest as politicians go (which is probably not very by any other standards )

I hope there is not another election soon, but I agree it could happen. I'm just hoping that FF can make something stick with the Greens or else the PDs and the Indos.

[magpie seanie]

Flynn on the other hand has her own problems and may not want to be the one who prevents her own constituency getting a Taoiseach as it could hurt her next time

Seriously Muppet, do you think she (or more importantly the people who voted for her) would be one bit worried that?

[resdubwhite]

i agree with Declan.

The PD's (bless them) have been given a clear message. Your Ultra right wing politics are not welcome in this country.  Bertie should look elsewhere.

[Fishead_Sam]

On the other hand, Fianna Fail and the Greens is an immediate stable government, as is FF and Labour. Even Bertie's favoured option (publicly at least) of the PDs, with Healy-Rae, Flynn, McGrath and Gregory is a much more stable looking arrangement.

If it comes down to one vote Bev better think long and hard before voting against Enda, I can tell you she might as well run in another part of the country next time around, because she will lose Castlebar voters almost entirely, by the way without Castlebar Bev wouldn't have a hope in hell of re-election.

[AZOffaly]

Sure by that logic she should join Fine Gael altogether to have a chance of being elected on the coat tails of the mighty Enda. I am aware that she would have gotten transfers from Castlebar, but surely people who voted for her will understand exactly who she is and how aligned politically and idealogically she is to Fianna Fail.

I think the voters of Mayo would have enough gumption to know she is more likely to vote with Fianna Fail than Fine Gael, and given that, you can hardly blame her for following her own principles.

If you buy a Dog, you have to expect it to sh*t in the garden.

[Star Spangler]

The election results clearly demonstrate the electorate have decided they do not want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.  His current posturing goes against what the people have decided and show him up as what he is - greedy and arrogant.  Imo, if he had any character he would accept defeat with grace and honour.

[Fishead_Sam]

Sure by that logic she should join Fine Gael altogether to have a chance of being elected on the coat tails of the mighty Enda. I am aware that she would have gotten transfers from Castlebar, but surely people who voted for her will understand exactly who she is and how aligned politically and idealogically she is to Fianna Fail.

I think the voters of Mayo would have enough gumption to know she is more likely to vote with Fianna Fail than Fine Gael, and given that, you can hardly blame her for following her own principles.

If you buy a Dog, you have to expect it to sh*t in the garden.

You really don't get the desire for Enda to become Taoiseach in the town and County, on Market Square in Castlebar a fortnight ago thousands turned up to cheer on Enda & his team, I saw many hardcore Fianna Failers from Castlebar on the square cheering on Enda.

After the count I went to a late bar the other side of town, I was talking to several lads I went to secondary school with and I know for a fact they where clearly Not Fine Gaelers and they had all voted Enda first, many where very vocal that Bev should vote for Enda if it came to it.

Bev will experience a backlash in Mayo if she chooses herself over the Constituency

[Fishead_Sam]

The election results clearly demonstrate the electorate have decided they do not want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.  His current posturing goes against what the people have decided and show him up as what he is - greedy and arrogant.  Imo, if he had any character he would accept defeat with grace and honour.

This is Fianna Fail propeganda.

The people 60% voted against Fianna Fail, the reason the PDs where voted against was because their support rejected their government with Fianna Fail.

[Star Spangler]

You really don't get the desire for Enda to become Taoiseach in the town and County, on Market Square in Castlebar

It's not f**king Eurostar! 

The people 60% voted against Fianna Fail

And how many voted against Fine Gael so?

[Fishead_Sam]

You really don't get the desire for Enda to become Taoiseach in the town and County, on Market Square in Castlebar

It's not f**king Eurostar! 

The people 60% voted against Fianna Fail

And how many voted against Fine Gael so?

Its not the Sopranos  either but thats how Fianna Fail like to model themselves (GANGSTERS)