Gerry's moving south...

[Hurler on the Bitch]

He probably will top the poll in Louth - no doubt. Bit if he doesn't ...........................................

[Maguire01]

Who'll take his seat in the west?

Two seats up for grabs - Westminster and Stormont.

Maguire,
My understanding is that he will resign his Westminster seat IF he wins in Louth.
That makes sense and shows that he is hedging his bets.

I understand he is to hold onto the Westminster seat until the election is called. He can't be seen to look like he's hedging his bets.

[Orangemac]

You would imagine he would get elected in Louth.

The bigger issue is his leadership and where the party is going as a whole. Doherty is a future leader at some point and may be more palatable to some Southern voters.

Sinn Fein seem to have hit a wall in the South. At a time when Labour have moved to the middle and be all things to all people, Sinn Fein should be coming to the fore as the party on the left.

The problem is hanging on to the existing supporter base and attracting anti government votes from people with no interest in the North.

[stephenite]

Whilst Adams may well be comfortably elected in Louth, Sinn Fein as an organisaton will struggle to gain traction in the Republic as a whole whilst himself and McGuinness are still involved as figureheads within the organisation.

[Nally Stand]

Not much analyzes going on here just more of the same shit.

Any decent observer would see this or what it is. Morgan never intended to run next time out, that was common knowledge. SF have probably been planning this for years.
Adams will stand down as an MLA (immediately I think) and as an MP when Cowen calls an election.
Thomas Sharky who stood in the Euros would probably have been favourite to replace Morgan (?) but I don't think it will be an issue as Sharky could struggle to hold the seat while Adams will storm home. I wouldn't be surprised if he topped the poll. I'd say the grass roots SF in Louth are delighted with this. THey could be the Constituency that will put Adams in the Dail.
If any area can lose an MLA/MP and the party not suffer from it it's west Belfast and Gerry Adams.
This is a no Brainer for SF and I'm surprised he hasn't stood in the 26 before. In fairness i wouldn't have thought of it.
We'll see over the next few weeks how this impacts on Eamon Gilmores popularity. He could be the big loser in all this.

About time someone decided to put up a sensible post instead of some shite about westminster wages or Adams' brother, as if it has any relevance to the story. No harm to complete WUMs like spanner (apt name) but do people honestly think that someone who is the longest serving political leader in the country by a looooooong way, has not got any rational, tactical reasons for this move other than westminster wages?

From what I can see, this is a very open tactical move. SF simply need to consolidate their dominance in the six counties and build further in the 26 counties and getting their most recognisable personality (Adams) and their potential future leader (Doherty) both into the Dáil, seems to me like their perfect starting point.

[Banana Man]

Not much analyzes going on here just more of the same shit.

Any decent observer would see this or what it is. Morgan never intended to run next time out, that was common knowledge. SF have probably been planning this for years.
Adams will stand down as an MLA (immediately I think) and as an MP when Cowen calls an election.
Thomas Sharky who stood in the Euros would probably have been favourite to replace Morgan (?) but I don't think it will be an issue as Sharky could struggle to hold the seat while Adams will storm home. I wouldn't be surprised if he topped the poll. I'd say the grass roots SF in Louth are delighted with this. THey could be the Constituency that will put Adams in the Dail.
If any area can lose an MLA/MP and the party not suffer from it it's west Belfast and Gerry Adams.
This is a no Brainer for SF and I'm surprised he hasn't stood in the 26 before. In fairness i wouldn't have thought of it.
We'll see over the next few weeks how this impacts on Eamon Gilmores popularity. He could be the big loser in all this.

Good points there Zap. Out of interest what happens to Adams seat in West Belfast? Can they co-opt or will they be forced to run a by election, which would end in same result, a shinner MP at a cost of about £50k.

Morgan was interviewed yesterday and seemed very happy with the move, could work well for Sinn Fein. I still think they need a credible and elected joing leader form the South. I always wondered why Martin Ferris wasn't more prominent??

[Banana Man]

Good points there Zap. Out of interest what happens to Adams seat in West Belfast? Can they co-opt or will they be forced to run a by election, which would end in same result, a shinner MP at a cost of about £50k.

Morgan was interviewed yesterday and seemed very happy with the move, could work well for Sinn Fein. I still think they need a credible and elected joing leader form the South. I always wondered why Martin Ferris wasn't more prominent??

I'd guess a co-op for the MLA seat but a by-eletion will be needed for the MP seat. If a by-election is needed for the MLA seat it would be at minimal cost run along side the Westminster by-election.

Ferris would be the least capable of the 4 tds imho. I don't think any partry could survive with two leaders. If you mean credible as 'clean history' then I suppose MAry Lou Mc Donald was supposed to be that? I always thought Morgan was good.

yeah Mary Lou done the job but I suppose I mean she lost sway by having no personal mandate. She was an able speaker and had a southern accent (which I think is a must to relate to the people in the 26 counties).

I wouldn't have any knowledge of the day to day capabilities of the 4 TD's but Morgan struck me as a cute enough operator when Jim Fitzpatrick interviewed him yesterday. He seemed a genuine lad and argued out his point well of being 56 now and wanting to pursue a few other projects before it was too late.

[Doogie Browser]

Who is the obvious successor for the West Belfast MP position then?  Heard Eamonn Mallie on Fat boy Nolan's show mentioning Tom Hartley.

[Nally Stand]

I'd imagine Bobby Storey would be a possibility

[Bogball XV]

Haven't read the rest of this thread but heard him on Newstalk this morning.  He did quite well I thought, a big, big improvement on the live debate before the last general election when he was totally unprepared.
Though at the end of the conversation, he seemingly ruled out the possibility of going into coalition with FG, and imo with the next breath he put out a feeler to FF.

Iirc he said something along the lines of "there is no compatibility between our policies and those of FG", he then said Labour have to go back to their Connolly roots and finally said that "FF have lost their way a bit and need"  then the call was dropped (British Army jamming device in divis I reckon).  I'm not sure of the exact words, but thats what I think I heard.

[Canalman]

Not a certainty imo that he will win a seat. The "blow in" monicker is a very hard obstacle  to overcome in Irish politics........ particularly down south.

[Banana Man]

Not a certainty imo that he will win a seat. The "blow in" monicker is a very hard obstacle  to overcome in Irish politics........ particularly down south.

lad you are forgetting half of Dundalk is originally from Belfast 

[bloodybreakball]

^{_{lad you are forgetting half of Dundalk is originally from Belfast}} 

lol very good banna man and i suppose true]

[TransitVanMan]

Safe in the knowledge that he has played his part in securing the Union, Gerry wants to embark on his next major project, Ireland's re-entry into the Commonwealth.

[spanner]

Safe in the knowledge that he has played his part in securing the Union, Gerry's want to embark on his next major project, Ireland's re-entry into the Commonwealth.