Test appetite for Irish Unity in Census 2021

[Stan Laurel]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

You're right. Seafoid had approximately the right number, but the wrong label.

The deficit (i.e. spending vs. income, as represented by borrowing) for the 12 months to March was £42.6 Billion.

The national debt is £1.79 Trillion.

For someone constantly being very diligent for factually correct posts, you can see how this wrong label is simply being used by the poster for shock value.

[seafoid]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

The UK is in serious shit , young man
1.7tn is the debt alright.  The deficit as a %  GDP is eyewatering. You can troll.all you want but the numbers won't change.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/27/project-fear-coming-true-after-all-two-years-later-brexit

Osborne warned that the Treasury's best minds had reached a terrible conclusion: that leaving the European Union would knock 6% off economic growth by 2030, costing each household £4,300 a year.

Last week, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said the UK was already following the trajectory mapped out by the Treasury.



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He said the UK had already lost almost 2% of predicted growth and 4% from household incomes. This translates into a £900 loss per household. Most of the damage, he said, was Brexit-related. The result is that the economy is £40bn smaller than it would have been without Brexit; it's possible to show that this amounts to a £15bn loss of tax revenue, or £300m a week.

The public, on the other hand, appeared to be nonplussed. This is partly because the loss is a notional one, based on economic forecasts that the Treasury and Bank of England have become notorious for getting wrong over the last 10 years.

Carney made this warning explicit in a speech last week that revealed the Bank is prepared to withdraw its plans for raising interest rates if this happens. Inflation, he said, had cut household spending power and accounted for around a third of the £900 loss. The remaining two-thirds was due to lost productivity – and that was largely due to a collapse in investment.

Figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development documenting foreign direct investment show a 90% collapse in flows to the UK in 2017 compared with the previous year. Granted, the previous year was characterised by a strong recovery from a miserable 2014 and 2015. Nevertheless, a 90% fall in funds coming to the UK shows how fragile Britain's reputation among corporate investors has become, and how positive sentiment can evaporate almost overnight.

Large domestic companies are of the same mind. They are the main losers from the Brexit vote and the costly trade and customs arrangements it could usher in. They are the most averse to making investment decisions until the situation is clearer. And even then, if it becomes obvious that a hard Brexit is the most likely result, with a customs deal no better than Canada's, they might ditch their investment plans altogether.

 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/25/uk-economy-posts-worst-quarterly-gdp-figures-for-five-years

The weakest household spending for three years and falling levels of business investment dragged the economy to the worst quarter for five years, official statisticians have said.

The Office for National Statisticsconfirmed its previous estimate that GDP growth slumped to 0.1% in the first quarter, while sticking to its view that the "beast from the east" had little impact. 



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The latest figures will further stoke concerns over the strength of the UK economy, amid increasing signals for deteriorating growth as Britain prepares to leave the EU next year. Some economists, including officials at the Bank of England, thought the growth rate would be revised higher as more data became available.

The figures show the services industries contributed the most to GDP growth, with an increase of 0.3% in the first quarter, while household spending grew at a meagre 0.2%. The construction industry declined by 2.7% and business investment fell by 0.2%.

[Stan Laurel]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

The UK is in serious shit , young man

You are full of shit, your posts are a means to be top poster on this site, most are cut and paste from web sites, you are the most uninformed person on this board.  You are a bit like the Tory Government, make it up as you go along.

[seafoid]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

The UK is in serious shit , young man

You are full of shit, your posts are a means to be top poster on this site, most are cut and paste from web sites, you are the most uninformed person on this board.  You are a bit like the Tory Government, make it up as you go along.

Are you looking for a reaction?
What's GDP outlook for the UK for the next 5 years ?

[Rossfan]

He's probably just another being affected by the heatwave and had decided to take his aggression out on Seafóidín.
Or maybe he's just a Brexiteer in heat

[Stan Laurel]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

The UK is in serious shit , young man

You are full of shit, your posts are a means to be top poster on this site, most are cut and paste from web sites, you are the most uninformed person on this board.  You are a bit like the Tory Government, make it up as you go along.

Are you looking for a reaction?
What's GDP outlook for the UK for the next 5 years ?

I am sure you will cut and paste some shite from the interweb to let us all know.

[seafoid]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

The UK is in serious shit , young man

You are full of shit, your posts are a means to be top poster on this site, most are cut and paste from web sites, you are the most uninformed person on this board.  You are a bit like the Tory Government, make it up as you go along.

Are you looking for a reaction?
What's GDP outlook for the UK for the next 5 years ?

I am sure you will cut and paste some shite from the interweb to let us all know.

What's your view on it?

[Stan Laurel]

My view is you post lies to get a reaction / your post count up, or maybe you just can't determine what the truth is and believe every article on the web!

[Solo_run]

My view is you post lies to get a reaction / your post count up, or maybe you just can't determine what the truth is and believe every article on the web!

That isn't really a view on Brexit.

[seafoid]

My view is you post lies to get a reaction / your post count up, or maybe you just can't determine what the truth is and believe every article on the web!

Have you spent your confirmation money yet?

[LCohen]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

You can say it undermines the GFA but that is not same as saying that a UI is any more appealing to the respective citizenry of RoI and NI

As for the economy, GB being outside the EU is a disaster for NI and for ROI. But the argument that NI needs to leave it largest free trade partner in order to maintain its position with its second biggest free trade partner has not yet been set out. If you find in convincing could you set out the argument?

[omaghjoe]

TBF Seafoid was way off the mark here.

Not only did he say deficit, he also described what the deficit is and then proceeded to post the figure for national debt.

This is the same thing as quoting your mortgage balance when examining how much you overspent on your grocery budget, so to call it the wrong label is the understatement of the century.

Im proUI, opposed to Brexit and sovereign debt BTW... but muddling basic facts like this is an instant turn off to any argument

[LCohen]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

You're right. Seafoid had approximately the right number, but the wrong label.

The deficit (i.e. spending vs. income, as represented by borrowing) for the 12 months to March was £42.6 Billion.

The national debt is £1.79 Trillion.

UK lives beyond its means. So do a lot of others.

No matter what Bexits long term implications are its safe to say that the short term implications will be negative. The belt tightening isn't over yet.

NI is a trillion miles away from being able to survive without a major subvention. That subvention could never be extracted from the RoI economy. It's a fraction of the UK economy though

[snoopdog]

It all boils down to money. If its gonna cost people thousands for a utd ire then it wont be voted in.

[seafoid]

It all boils down to money. If its gonna cost people thousands for a utd ire then it wont be voted in.

There would also be synergies
There are less with the UK
There is a lot of duplication between NI and the South
If there was a programme to identify best practice between the 2 things would also improve.
The pension funds do nothing with their money.