The far right

[Itchy]

Sinn Fein got 24.5 % of all FPVs in the 2020 GE

Anyone want to guess what their FPV % will be in the upcoming Local Elections

I'm going to say they will come in at 18%

You know we have proportional representation in elections don't you? So let's see do their seats go up or down. Let's see how the racists get on too.

Yes

But FPV% is a clearer indication as to whether top line support has gone up or down and it's bang front and center in every report written about the results of that election

https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/results-hub

Just listened to the Gript Podcast-Peasar Toibin very impressive. Hermann Kelly-very unimpressive

haha, Gript again but now with Hermann Kelly.

Listen lad, the only metric that matters is number of seats. Its very simple, even for you.

Well if their FPV% collapses, there a good chance their seat count will too (but not guaranteed)

So your prediction is a collapse in Sinn Fein vote in the local elections. You predicting the same in the European elections?

Yes and yes

1/4-1/3 of the people who voted for them in 2020 will not vote for them this go around

Now due to PR, they may not lose 1/4-1/3 of their seats, but they will lose some

Which is scandalous considering they are the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government

OK, Sinn Fein in South currently has 1 MEP. You think they might lose that but if they don't it'll be because of PR.

What if I told you SF are nailed on to get 3 MEPs with an outside chance of 2nd seats in the 3 constituencies? You are saying that im wrong.

I'm saying Sinn Feins FPV % will fall by somewhere between 25% and 33% over what the received in 2020

How many MEPs will they lose/gain and how many co councillors will they lose/gain. Surely a man with your local knowledge knows enough to make that prediction.

Don't know because it depends on Turnout and transfers which no one can predict

Well it's great we found something you don't know. If you were in Ireland you could have watched a harrowing 3 part series into the deaths of 48 people in the Stardust fire. Lynn Boylan has worked with those working class families for years to secure a new inquest which in the end finally brought truth to the fore. Lynn Boylan will top the poll by a mile in Dublin. At the same time the people you seem to have similar beliefs to, are out burning buildings. Think about that.

[whitey]

In addition. In the last council elections SF got 9.5% of first preference votes and 81 elected councillors. You are predicting their 1st preference votes will drop by between 2.3% and 3.1%. That's a brave call.

In addition. In the last council elections SF got 9.5% of first preference votes and 81 elected councillors. You are predicting their 1st preference votes will drop by between 2.3% and 3.1%. That's a brave call.

No-that's not what I said

I said their FPV % would drop by 25-33% off their 2020 GE FPV% where they got 24.5% of FPVs

[Itchy]

In addition. In the last council elections SF got 9.5% of first preference votes and 81 elected councillors. You are predicting their 1st preference votes will drop by between 2.3% and 3.1%. That's a brave call.

In addition. In the last council elections SF got 9.5% of first preference votes and 81 elected councillors. You are predicting their 1st preference votes will drop by between 2.3% and 3.1%. That's a brave call.

No-that's not what I said

I said their FPV % would drop by 25-33% off their 2020 GE FPV% where they got 24.5% of FPVs

General elections and Co Council elections 2 different things.

[whitey]

Sinn Fein got 24.5 % of all FPVs in the 2020 GE

Anyone want to guess what their FPV % will be in the upcoming Local Elections

I'm going to say they will come in at 18%

You know we have proportional representation in elections don't you? So let's see do their seats go up or down. Let's see how the racists get on too.

Yes

But FPV% is a clearer indication as to whether top line support has gone up or down and it's bang front and center in every report written about the results of that election

https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/results-hub

Just listened to the Gript Podcast-Peasar Toibin very impressive. Hermann Kelly-very unimpressive

haha, Gript again but now with Hermann Kelly.

Listen lad, the only metric that matters is number of seats. Its very simple, even for you.

Well if their FPV% collapses, there a good chance their seat count will too (but not guaranteed)

So your prediction is a collapse in Sinn Fein vote in the local elections. You predicting the same in the European elections?

Yes and yes

1/4-1/3 of the people who voted for them in 2020 will not vote for them this go around

Now due to PR, they may not lose 1/4-1/3 of their seats, but they will lose some

Which is scandalous considering they are the main opposition party to an historically unpopular government

OK, Sinn Fein in South currently has 1 MEP. You think they might lose that but if they don't it'll be because of PR.

What if I told you SF are nailed on to get 3 MEPs with an outside chance of 2nd seats in the 3 constituencies? You are saying that im wrong.

I'm saying Sinn Feins FPV % will fall by somewhere between 25% and 33% over what the received in 2020

How many MEPs will they lose/gain and how many co councillors will they lose/gain. Surely a man with your local knowledge knows enough to make that prediction.

Don't know because it depends on Turnout and transfers which no one can predict

Well it's great we found something you don't know. If you were in Ireland you could have watched a harrowing 3 part series into the deaths of 48 people in the Stardust fire. Lynn Boylan has worked with those working class families for years to secure a new inquest which in the end finally brought truth to the fore. Lynn Boylan will top the poll by a mile in Dublin. At the same time the people you seem to have similar beliefs to, are out burning buildings. Think about that.

No need to be getting mad at me just because Sinn Fein screwed up and sold out their base to the NGOs

I'll stand by my prediction-Sinn Feins FPV% vote will decline by 25-33% versus what they got during the 2020 general election

I'll make a €50 donation to a charity of your choice if I'm wrong

[whitey]

In addition. In the last council elections SF got 9.5% of first preference votes and 81 elected councillors. You are predicting their 1st preference votes will drop by between 2.3% and 3.1%. That's a brave call.

In addition. In the last council elections SF got 9.5% of first preference votes and 81 elected councillors. You are predicting their 1st preference votes will drop by between 2.3% and 3.1%. That's a brave call.

No-that's not what I said

I said their FPV % would drop by 25-33% off their 2020 GE FPV% where they got 24.5% of FPVs

General elections and Co Council elections 2 different things.

Never said they were

2020 should be Sinn Feins baseline. That's what I'm basing my prediction off

[burdizzo]

SF down 5 points in latest opinion poll.

[whitey]

SF down 5 points in latest opinion poll.

I saw that


But I also saw FG going up by 4 which I find hard to believe

Elections are decided by the voters, not the polls. It will all depend on who can turn out their voters on the day