The SDLP

[Angelo]

Difficult to put a figure on the current voting making up but it would be a lot more even than the 70/30 mentioned earlier

A lot more which way though? More than 70/30 Protestant:Catholic or the or the other way around.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Difficult to put a figure on the current voting making up but it would be a lot more even than the 70/30 mentioned earlier

A lot more which way though? More than 70/30 Protestant:Catholic or the or the other way around.

It will be closer to 50/50

[Rossfan]

Difficult to put a figure on the current voting making up but it would be a lot more even than the 70/30 mentioned earlier

A lot more which way though? More than 70/30 Protestant:Catholic or the or the other way around.

It will be closer to 50/50

Interesting.
These are the folks "we" have to convince to vote for a UI.

[Angelo]

Difficult to put a figure on the current voting making up but it would be a lot more even than the 70/30 mentioned earlier

A lot more which way though? More than 70/30 Protestant:Catholic or the or the other way around.

It will be closer to 50/50

Possibly, I don't know enough about their voter base.

I think if that is accurate it really shows how much a niche market "moderate" unionism actually is.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

When the latest census figures are released Unionism is in for a shock. Demographic change IN NI maybe happening at a snails pace but it is happening quickly in Belfast. South Belfast is unrecognisable politically from 30 yrs ago. North Belfast change has been stifled by Dodds and McCausland blocking housing but its still happening. The big shock will be East Belfast. Plenty of Catholics moving over as they cant afford neighbouring South Belfast.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Difficult to put a figure on the current voting making up but it would be a lot more even than the 70/30 mentioned earlier

A lot more which way though? More than 70/30 Protestant:Catholic or the or the other way around.

It will be closer to 50/50

Interesting.
These are the folks "we" have to convince to vote for a UI.

The previous lucid talk poll already shows this. That is why Unionists are so keen to discredit the poll. These are the preferences in a referendum of the voters of each party

DUP - UK 95% UI 1%  Dont know 4%
UUP - UK 86% UI 3% Dont know 11%
SF - UK 1% UI 96% Dont know 3%
SDLP - UK 9% UI 75% Dont know 16%
Alliance - UK 24% UI 40% Dont know 36%
Green - UK 13% UI 63% Dont know 24%
Non voters - UK 46% UI 44% Dont know 10%

That poll had overall UK at 46.8 UI 42.3 an actual decrease in support for UI since their previous poll.
Is it any wonder political unionism is spooked

[Angelo]

When the latest census figures are released Unionism is in for a shock. Demographic change IN NI maybe happening at a snails pace but it is happening quickly in Belfast. South Belfast is unrecognisable politically from 30 yrs ago. North Belfast change has been stifled by Dodds and McCausland blocking housing but its still happening. The big shock will be East Belfast. Plenty of Catholics moving over as they cant afford neighbouring South Belfast.

4/5 years will be a big change but how those demographic changes translate into votes is anyone's guess.

The constituencies seem to be very predictable along green/orange lines - they've always been divided to keep the unionist numbers up.

You probably have a better idea on East Belfast but it would need an absolutely seismic shift to see SF/SDLP get a candidate in there in the next election. Just looking at the result there and the SDLP candidate picked up 250 1st pref votes and the SF candidate picked up a little under 1,200 1st pref votes. The quota was nearly 7k.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

When the latest census figures are released Unionism is in for a shock. Demographic change IN NI maybe happening at a snails pace but it is happening quickly in Belfast. South Belfast is unrecognisable politically from 30 yrs ago. North Belfast change has been stifled by Dodds and McCausland blocking housing but its still happening. The big shock will be East Belfast. Plenty of Catholics moving over as they cant afford neighbouring South Belfast.

4/5 years will be a big change but how those demographic changes translate into votes is anyone's guess.

The constituencies seem to be very predictable along green/orange lines - they've always been divided to keep the unionist numbers up.

You probably have a better idea on East Belfast but it would need an absolutely seismic shift to see SF/SDLP get a candidate in there in the next election. Just looking at the result there and the SDLP candidate picked up 250 1st pref votes and the SF candidate picked up a little under 1,200 1st pref votes. The quota was nearly 7k.

SF and SDLP wont be doing a lot because SF dont seem to look beyond the markets area too much and SDLP have pretty much given up in EB and North Down but as we were mentioning earlier a lot of those votes will be going to Long in a Westminster election

[6th sam]

When the latest census figures are released Unionism is in for a shock. Demographic change IN NI maybe happening at a snails pace but it is happening quickly in Belfast. South Belfast is unrecognisable politically from 30 yrs ago. North Belfast change has been stifled by Dodds and McCausland blocking housing but its still happening. The big shock will be East Belfast. Plenty of Catholics moving over as they cant afford neighbouring South Belfast.

4/5 years will be a big change but how those demographic changes translate into votes is anyone's guess.

The constituencies seem to be very predictable along green/orange lines - they've always been divided to keep the unionist numbers up.

You probably have a better idea on East Belfast but it would need an absolutely seismic shift to see SF/SDLP get a candidate in there in the next election. Just looking at the result there and the SDLP candidate picked up 250 1st pref votes and the SF candidate picked up a little under 1,200 1st pref votes. The quota was nearly 7k.

But as noted before "Catholic " turnout tends to be historically low in areas where Sf/SDLP have no chance of winning. Any that do vote will vote anti-DUP eg Alliance or Sylvia Hermon

[GiveItToTheShooters]

Just to clarify what I meant , highlighted above . Of the 5 main parties only Alliance are probably drawn  equally from "both communities " however their policies don't suit many of us. Sf/SDLP/DUP/UUP on the other hand draw almost exclusively from one community ie a "sectarian" base, as the two main communities here are defined as being split along "sectarian" lines. That does not meant that  those of us who vote for those parties above are sectarian. I am anti-sectarian , but Alliance would never have been my voting choice. In much the same way as many "decent unionists" vote DUP as they feel it is currently the best way of maintaining the union, many of the rest of us vote on anti-DUP lines. If the anti-DUP vote gets stronger , and we can present a different alternative to "decent unionists " ( Alliance currently doing this very well), we can consign  DUP to history,  and focus on real political issues, as opposed to being dictated to by "anti-Irish" dinosaurs.
I often thought that orangeism and others labelling this conflict as a principled stand against Catholicism, was a convenient red herring . In reality it has  little to do with religion, it's often anti-Irish racism. The British planted loyal subjects into a position of superiority here, they then gave them their own state, where they reinforced anti-Irish superiority. It was convenient to soften this racism by labelling it a religious conflict.

Again, voting for SF and not for the DUP is not "sectarian", nor is one community a "sectarian base".

[Angelo]

Is there a considerable chance that Alliance will surpass both the UUP and SDLP in the next election? I'd say it could probably do so on 1st pref but less likely in seat numbers.

The real test for the Alliance will be how they get on in the nationalist areas. There is no Alliance MLA in Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry or Armagh and their two in Down are from the perimeters in Antrim. That's their limitation really.

[yellowcard]

When the latest census figures are released Unionism is in for a shock. Demographic change IN NI maybe happening at a snails pace but it is happening quickly in Belfast. South Belfast is unrecognisable politically from 30 yrs ago. North Belfast change has been stifled by Dodds and McCausland blocking housing but its still happening. The big shock will be East Belfast. Plenty of Catholics moving over as they cant afford neighbouring South Belfast.

From what I can gather the census results aren't out until the summer of 2022, that seems like an awful long time to release the information. It will certainly be interesting and will provide the clearest indication of the results of a possible border poll since it is information on the entirety of the population.

It will provide a decent guideline on the potential timing of a border poll in future.

[6th sam]

Just to clarify what I meant , highlighted above . Of the 5 main parties only Alliance are probably drawn  equally from "both communities " however their policies don't suit many of us. Sf/SDLP/DUP/UUP on the other hand draw almost exclusively from one community ie a "sectarian" base, as the two main communities here are defined as being split along "sectarian" lines. That does not meant that  those of us who vote for those parties above are sectarian. I am anti-sectarian , but Alliance would never have been my voting choice. In much the same way as many "decent unionists" vote DUP as they feel it is currently the best way of maintaining the union, many of the rest of us vote on anti-DUP lines. If the anti-DUP vote gets stronger , and we can present a different alternative to "decent unionists " ( Alliance currently doing this very well), we can consign  DUP to history,  and focus on real political issues, as opposed to being dictated to by "anti-Irish" dinosaurs.
I often thought that orangeism and others labelling this conflict as a principled stand against Catholicism, was a convenient red herring . In reality it has  little to do with religion, it's often anti-Irish racism. The British planted loyal subjects into a position of superiority here, they then gave them their own state, where they reinforced anti-Irish superiority. It was convenient to soften this racism by labelling it a religious conflict.

Again, voting for SF and not for the DUP is not "sectarian", nor is one community a "sectarian base".

Oxford dictionary: "adjective
denoting or concerning a sect or sects."

If we consider communities here as polarised along perceived religious affiliation, which unfortunately many of them are, then they are divided along sectarian lines. That does not mean that those that vote for parties within those communities are sectarian. I don't vote against DUP because they are Protestant , I vote against them because they are right wing, anti-Irish dinosaurs

[Eamonnca1]

Plus abstention is well past its sell by date.

Would you like to see FF & FG organise in the north? Would you like to see them sitting in westminster?

You see, you might yearn for Irish people getting their bums of the green benches, but personally I would argue that the very notion of Irish MPs sitting in westminster is what's long past it's sell by date. SF stand in elections promising to abstain and people overwhelmingly back them on that basis.

Take down Parnell's statue then. Re-name O'Connell St back to Sackville St. They took their seats, didn't they?

Different times....

SF's abstentionism policy was inspired by the Hungarian revolution of 1848 and their first abstentionist candidate stood in 1908. Times have changed a bit since then, wouldn't you say?

When you hear a SF rep explaining that they are abstaining from Westminster because of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848, then, and only then, should you come on here and use that as your argument.

Abstentionism is based on pretending that the British parliament has no jurisdiction in Ireland and can just be ignored, a position that SF adopted in 1908 and rejected in 1998 when they signed up to the Good Friday Agreement.

Declan Kearney was out here a few years back making that point, that as far as SF is concerned "Westminster is irrelevant." A few minutes later he was moaning about how the DUP had so much influence on Theresa May's government because of the electoral math at Westminster.

Abstentionism makes no sense in this day and age. You know it, I know it, and everybody in SF knows it.

[Eamonnca1]

Westminster does play a role in running NI so why not take your sears there.

Would you like to see FF & FG organise in the north? Would you like to see them sitting in Westminster?

The assembly was shut down for a few years so who was representing the people in westminster?

When the assembly was shut down, the place was being run by the Civil Service. Direct rule was not in place. How did you not know that much?

When the Tories needed the DUP to form a coalition SF could have used their seats in westminster to put pressure on the government, but by not taking their seats they missed out

And do you think that any MPs wavering on key Brexit votes would have risked the wrath of the Red Tops by allowing themselves be seen to take the same side as SF to swing the result? Cop yourself on. Besides, SF were mandated to abstain. I understand that the very notion of a party keeping an election promise might be a novel concept when you've lived your life under FFG governments, but there you are.

Perhaps have a word with your colleagues in north and ask them why they suddenly changed their position on abortion?

Surely they didn't suddenly take up a new position just because they think that's what would be the most popular decision with their voters up there instead of what they said in the south?

Seems SF electioneering can be just as cynical as FF/FG

But whatabout...but whatabout...

Would you like to see FF & FG organise in the north? Would you like to see them sitting in Westminster?

No thanks. Enogu bootlickers in the North thank you.

Was Parnell a "bootlicker?" Was O'Connell a "bootlicker?"