Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[GJL]

Conservative majority now at 4/7. No overall majority at 13/8 with Labour majority at 20/1.

As they say, bookies rarely get it wrong!

[Orior]

Conservative majority now at 4/7. No overall majority at 13/8 with Labour majority at 20/1.

As they say, bookies rarely get it wrong!

Oh dear. Border down the Irish sea. The DUP will find this rather upsetting.

[drillsergeant]

Conservative majority now at 4/7. No overall majority at 13/8 with Labour majority at 20/1.

As they say, bookies rarely get it wrong!

Oh dear. Border down the Irish sea. The DUP will find this rather upsetting.

Oh won't they just, another Conservative government selling the Ulster men out lol! It just be like 1985 Anglo Irish Agreement all over again. Arlene,Dodds,Wilson,Campbell an co. will take to streets again. What's chances of another NEVER NEVER NEVER speech - Ulster says no campaign be on the cards.

[trailer]

Guys look I know it's great to gloat that the DUP have been fucked over and "border down the Irish sea" but this is a really shit deal for NI. While yes the DUP have been fucked over unfortunately we're all going to be pushed under that bus.
This is a shit deal that involves loads of more paperwork and red tape. It puts barriers on trade between East/West. In short it's terrible but it's terrible for everyone not just DUP voters.

[Hound]

Guys look I know it's great to gloat that the DUP have been fucked over and "border down the Irish sea" but this is a really shit deal for NI. While yes the DUP have been fucked over unfortunately we're all going to be pushed under that bus.
This is a shit deal that involves loads of more paperwork and red tape. It puts barriers on trade between East/West. In short it's terrible but it's terrible for everyone not just DUP voters.

So a better deal would be a border and checks between north and south?? Because it has to be one or the other.

I think you're overstating the "terribleness" of this deal. Once the teething problems are sorted out, I think it'll be fine. Once everything is up and running goods moving from NI to GB and vice versa will be seamless with no/minimal red tape. For goods that are moving to or coming from the EU, there will certainly be additional red tape, but just the same as goods moving directly to/from NI to/from mainland EU.

I think people forget that all types of Brexit will lead to red tape for NI. Even if the border was in Ireland and there was none in the Irish sea, there would still be red tape for goods going from NI to GB, where the ultimate destination of the goods is Europe.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-what-if-corbyn-offered-sinn-f%C3%A9in-a-border-poll-1.4079555

"The question is obvious and voters in Northern Ireland have a right to an answer before they go to the polls on December 12th. What will Sinn Féin do if the election results in a hung parliament? More specifically, what will it do if its votes could make Jeremy Corbyn prime minister and he makes the party an offer it surely can't refuse?
The offer is this: take your seats to vote me into office and support me on any confidence motions, and in return I will give you a Border poll. Does Sinn Féin really rule out such a deal? And if not, it surely needs to be honest with voters and prepare them in advance for the possibility that the policy of abstentionism is not as absolute as party dogma has always claimed it to be.


An important consideration here is that Sinn Féin has already in effect shifted its position on abstentionism. Last week the party announced it would not stand in South Belfast, East Belfast and North Down and urged its voters in those constituencies to support Remain candidates instead."

[imtommygunn]

How have they shifted it??

[johnnycool]

Guys look I know it's great to gloat that the DUP have been fucked over and "border down the Irish sea" but this is a really shit deal for NI. While yes the DUP have been fucked over unfortunately we're all going to be pushed under that bus.
This is a shit deal that involves loads of more paperwork and red tape. It puts barriers on trade between East/West. In short it's terrible but it's terrible for everyone not just DUP voters.

The only "good deal" is the status quo, i.e. remain in the EU.

yes, were all going to suffer due to the right wing nut jobs in the Tory party and their mates in the DUVF (stole that from someone else).
A UI and return to the EU can't come quick enough.

Surely to get "Brexit done" the Tories will need a majority, and to do that gain current Labour seats. Brexit party will surely cut into Tory vote in some Labour seats. I don't think it's as straightforward as some think

Me neither

Read somewhere that in the European elections that for every 3 votes the Brexit party got, two were from the Tories and one from Labour.

If that ratio persists in the forthcoming General election then Labour may hold more seats than they're expected to lose them.
European elections were almost like a protest vote and parties that did well aren't inclined to do as well in a GE.


Tories are going to lose out in Scotland so they need to make up that shortfall elsewhere and then some to have a majority.

It's looking like another hung parliament. 

[five points]

Guys look I know it's great to gloat that the DUP have been fucked over and "border down the Irish sea" but this is a really shit deal for NI. While yes the DUP have been fucked over unfortunately we're all going to be pushed under that bus.
This is a shit deal that involves loads of more paperwork and red tape. It puts barriers on trade between East/West. In short it's terrible but it's terrible for everyone not just DUP voters.

So a better deal would be a border and checks between north and south?? Because it has to be one or the other.

I think you're overstating the "terribleness" of this deal. Once the teething problems are sorted out, I think it'll be fine. Once everything is up and running goods moving from NI to GB and vice versa will be seamless with no/minimal red tape. For goods that are moving to or coming from the EU, there will certainly be additional red tape, but just the same as goods moving directly to/from NI to/from mainland EU.

I think people forget that all types of Brexit will lead to red tape for NI. Even if the border was in Ireland and there was none in the Irish sea, there would still be red tape for goods going from NI to GB, where the ultimate destination of the goods is Europe.

That red tape already exists. Cross-boirder VAT is already a nightmare for small businesses. It takes 6-8 weeks minimum now to get an ROI VAT number, so scared are the Revenue of scammers.

[armaghniac]

Guys look I know it's great to gloat that the DUP have been fucked over and "border down the Irish sea" but this is a really shit deal for NI. While yes the DUP have been fucked over unfortunately we're all going to be pushed under that bus.
This is a shit deal that involves loads of more paperwork and red tape. It puts barriers on trade between East/West. In short it's terrible but it's terrible for everyone not just DUP voters.

Anything resulting from Brexit was going to be worse, if the English are acting the maggot then it was always going to be substantially worse. The best you can say about the deal is that there are worse outcomes.

[magpie seanie]

The Tories entire electoral strategy is based on the assumption that most or enough people are thick. So thick they'll swallow the contionuos and unrelenting smears from 95% of the British media and distill it down to ridiculous assertions like "nationalise everything" as we saw earlier in this thread. Their strategy is underpinned by a horribly unequal education system so it's a solid bet unfortunately.

However, the way to beat this is not taking it on. It's to have a consistent and solid ground game and engage people on a more close and personal basis. Labour is doing this and will fight an incredible fight in this regard. Despite the horrific things he has been smeared with, the general consensus of those who've met him is that Corbyn is an absolute gentleman, full of empathy and respect and dignity. His consistency in his political viewpoints is undeniable. If wanting good healthcare, good education and equality are communism well then I guess I'm a communist too! The reality is that these fanciful labels like "communist", "Stalinist" and "socialist" are trotted out by the rich and powerful because they're afraid. Not just afraid of having to pay more taxes. They're afraid that everyone will get a chance in life similar to what their families and friends have had for generations.

It just amazes me that Corbyn is seen as a "threat". There is no bigger threat to Britain & Ireland, Europe than the Tories. With the Tories you're guaranteed a no-deal or bad deal Brexit and the economic carnage that will ensue. Who do you think they'll prioritise when the shit hits the fan? Labour offers the prospect of remain or a less damaging Brexit. And a fair chance for everyone. Properly funded public services.

[tbrick18]

The Tories entire electoral strategy is based on the assumption that most or enough people are thick. So thick they'll swallow the contionuos and unrelenting smears from 95% of the British media and distill it down to ridiculous assertions like "nationalise everything" as we saw earlier in this thread. Their strategy is underpinned by a horribly unequal education system so it's a solid bet unfortunately.

However, the way to beat this is not taking it on. It's to have a consistent and solid ground game and engage people on a more close and personal basis. Labour is doing this and will fight an incredible fight in this regard. Despite the horrific things he has been smeared with, the general consensus of those who've met him is that Corbyn is an absolute gentleman, full of empathy and respect and dignity. His consistency in his political viewpoints is undeniable. If wanting good healthcare, good education and equality are communism well then I guess I'm a communist too! The reality is that these fanciful labels like "communist", "Stalinist" and "socialist" are trotted out by the rich and powerful because they're afraid. Not just afraid of having to pay more taxes. They're afraid that everyone will get a chance in life similar to what their families and friends have had for generations.

It just amazes me that Corbyn is seen as a "threat". There is no bigger threat to Britain & Ireland, Europe than the Tories. With the Tories you're guaranteed a no-deal or bad deal Brexit and the economic carnage that will ensue. Who do you think they'll prioritise when the shit hits the fan? Labour offers the prospect of remain or a less damaging Brexit. And a fair chance for everyone. Properly funded public services.

+1
Very well put, I couldn't agree more

[maddog]

The Tories entire electoral strategy is based on the assumption that most or enough people are thick. So thick they'll swallow the contionuos and unrelenting smears from 95% of the British media and distill it down to ridiculous assertions like "nationalise everything" as we saw earlier in this thread. Their strategy is underpinned by a horribly unequal education system so it's a solid bet unfortunately.

However, the way to beat this is not taking it on. It's to have a consistent and solid ground game and engage people on a more close and personal basis. Labour is doing this and will fight an incredible fight in this regard. Despite the horrific things he has been smeared with, the general consensus of those who've met him is that Corbyn is an absolute gentleman, full of empathy and respect and dignity. His consistency in his political viewpoints is undeniable. If wanting good healthcare, good education and equality are communism well then I guess I'm a communist too! The reality is that these fanciful labels like "communist", "Stalinist" and "socialist" are trotted out by the rich and powerful because they're afraid. Not just afraid of having to pay more taxes. They're afraid that everyone will get a chance in life similar to what their families and friends have had for generations.

It just amazes me that Corbyn is seen as a "threat". There is no bigger threat to Britain & Ireland, Europe than the Tories. With the Tories you're guaranteed a no-deal or bad deal Brexit and the economic carnage that will ensue. Who do you think they'll prioritise when the shit hits the fan? Labour offers the prospect of remain or a less damaging Brexit. And a fair chance for everyone. Properly funded public services.

That's bang on Seanie.

[trailer]

Ok I get that this might be a slightly better deal than N/S checks or a border in Ireland. My point is more to do with people thinking it's funny that the DUP have been ditched. As if the consequences are completely localised to the DUP and their voters. It's such a naive view. This deal (which is awful) will have an economic impact on NI for years. So it must be opposed and in my view, we need to elect MPs who will go to Westminster and vote against it.

[tyrone08]

Spot on but you underestimate how thick the normal brit is. All you see on the news is smearing of labour and JC. It's ironic that given the age of smart phones we now have the ability to check or disprove any claim within a few minutes on Google. Unfortunately it seems the vast majority can't be bothered to do so.