Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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Solo_run

Quote from: Farrandeelin on April 02, 2019, 11:53:45 AM
Superb post easytiger.

+ 1

The DUP are screwed no matter what way Brexit goes. The Tories knew they needed a fall guy from the start just like they did with the Lib Dems.

trailer

Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

So let a "no deal" Brexit happen and f**k all the people in NI? Is that what you think is a good plan?

LCohen

Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

I have no problem with your analysis of DUP, the mess they are in and their role in creating their own mess.

But the way you let SF off the hook is shameful.

If we are economically crippled through a hard Brexit what do you say to those who can least afford to take that hit. This idea at look at DUP squirming that will feed and clothe the kids is as ideological hardline, blinkered and morally corrupt as DUP themselves

HiMucker

Quote from: Walter Cronc on April 02, 2019, 11:25:45 AM
Lads to say SF would have any influence is real pie in the sky stuff. Jesus there is upwards of 40 SNP MPs and look how they are treated.

A cohort of Tories would vote the exact opposite to anything SF does out of pure spite and anti irishness.

This shitshow is Englands doing and only the English can resolve it. Unfortunately we are cannon fodder in the middle.
Spot on

HiMucker

Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.
Excellent post

easytiger95

Quote from: trailer on April 02, 2019, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

So let a "no deal" Brexit happen and f**k all the people in NI? Is that what you think is a good plan?

I'd say the first element of any plan is learning to read. I did not suggest the above. I said that I think that the risk of a No Deal has only increased slightly and even if it does happen, it is completely unsustainable under international law and would not be permanent. Given that, there is no political advantage to Sinn Fein intervening.

The right of all people in Northern Ireland to declare themselves European (Irish) is guaranteed under international law, and can be prosecuted under that law. Which means no deal Brexit for NI is a non runner. And no amount of Brexiteer bluster is going to change that.

The immovable force of the DUP/ERG is about to be introduced to the irresistible force of reality. Stay out of the way of the collision and make sure that you are ready to exploit the situation after the smoke clears.

easytiger95

Quote from: LCohen on April 02, 2019, 12:27:13 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

I have no problem with your analysis of DUP, the mess they are in and their role in creating their own mess.

But the way you let SF off the hook is shameful.

If we are economically crippled through a hard Brexit what do you say to those who can least afford to take that hit. This idea at look at DUP squirming that will feed and clothe the kids is as ideological hardline, blinkered and morally corrupt as DUP themselves

Again, the reading and comprehension skills here aren't great. I'm not letting Sinn Fein off anything. I've been on this board 20 years and I am as far from a SF sympathiser as you could get. Check back my posts.

However, that doesn't prevent me analysing what their strategy should be. And there is a big difference between strategy and ideology.

I really don't understand your last line, your grammar is all over the shop, but I'm assuming that my view that DUP should be let squirm is ideologically hardline, corrupt, blinkered etc and that I am advocating for children not being fed or clothed?

Parliament has only found a majority for only one position re Brexit in the past 4 months - and that is to rule out a no Deal Brexit, which it has done on two occasion, both with large majorities. So, the odds are very long on a No Deal, even now. And even if Theresa May stumbles the UK into No Deal - either by prevaricating too long or deliberately taking it as an option (which would pit her against Parliament in the worst schism since Charles I), then, as I stated above, NI, uniquely in the UK, has guaranteed its people EU citizenship under the GFA. It couldn't last under international law.

Then throw in the fact that the DUP are now putting the "Union" (or de facto staying as close to the staus quo, including EU alignment) before "Brexit" (in other words a No Deal Brexit led by ERG) and it means that the DUP have accepted the need for a "backstop" and are now simply insisting it apply to the entire UK.

So, given all that, the odds of children going unfed and naked in the streets of Newry are quite small, in my opinion and please tell me if you think I'm wrong.

But at least then we would be arguing about my opinions and not the wrong headed and dishonest interpretation yourself and Trailer are putting on them.

mouview

Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.



No guarantee that Corbyn, who's almost unelectable anyway, would get to No. 10. While I wrote earlier that the DUP won't escape this unscathed, they still have a solid block of blind, unwavering electoral support behind them.

north_antrim_hound

I find it amusing that some people are trying to berate SF for their lack of involvement in one of the biggest farces in British Political History  (not Irish politics). If you oppose a foreign occupation in your country is their any argument for engaging in their political system. Some people on here are no better than politicians in Westminster that has taken a task voted for by their people and instead of implementing it have turned the whole process into internal pissing contest where no one seems to be gaining any ground over the other. As for the DUP it's getting to the stage where they should be physiologically anlylised for some sort of narcissism disorder. Every single time they adopt the polar opposite of the logical direction even to the detriment of their electorate at times.
There's a man with a mullet going mad with a mallet in Millets

easytiger95

#7134

Corbyn is the wildcard alright. If he had even a tenth of Blair's retail skills, he would be 30 points clear in the polls. People go on about Labour's dithering on this - but even their convoluted policy, if presented with real communication skills, would still command a hefty lead on the Tories. Corbyn just doesn't have "it"

However, spokespeople like Emily Thornberry yesterday very skilfully set out what was effectively a U-turn on their manifesto (supporting Common Market 2.0 is in direct opposition to their stated support for ending freedom of movement) by basically saying "when the facts change, we change our minds".

A rational approach like that may just be the thing to attract voters disillusioned with the Maybot's "Brexit means Brexit" and the ERG's doctrinaire and dogged attachment to the 17.2 million.

I still think that May hasn't found her floor yet, and even a charisma free zone like Jeremy can be elected on the back of it.


johnnycool

Quote from: north_antrim_hound on April 02, 2019, 01:04:30 PM
I find it amusing that some people are trying to berate SF for their lack of involvement in one of the biggest farces in British Political History  (not Irish politics). If you oppose a foreign occupation in your country is their any argument for engaging in their political system. Some people on here are no better than politicians in Westminster that has taken a task voted for by their people and instead of implementing it have turned the whole process into internal pissing contest where no one seems to be gaining any ground over the other. As for the DUP it's getting to the stage where they should be physiologically anlylised for some sort of narcissism disorder. Every single time they adopt the polar opposite of the logical direction even to the detriment of their electorate at times.

Logic and the DUP shouldn't be in the same sentence.

The DUP are in a sticky wicket and apart from Nigels spiel about it being better to remain in the EU than to jeopardise the precious Union they've very much remained on point through this.

That saying IF the Tories don't get a Brexit of sorts through I think they'll not forget the DUP for it. There'll be no Sirs or Lords for a while anyway.

LCohen

Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 12:34:23 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 02, 2019, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

So let a "no deal" Brexit happen and f**k all the people in NI? Is that what you think is a good plan?

I'd say the first element of any plan is learning to read. I did not suggest the above. I said that I think that the risk of a No Deal has only increased slightly and even if it does happen, it is completely unsustainable under international law and would not be permanent. Given that, there is no political advantage to Sinn Fein intervening.

The right of all people in Northern Ireland to declare themselves European (Irish) is guaranteed under international law, and can be prosecuted under that law. Which means no deal Brexit for NI is a non runner. And no amount of Brexiteer bluster is going to change that.

The immovable force of the DUP/ERG is about to be introduced to the irresistible force of reality. Stay out of the way of the collision and make sure that you are ready to exploit the situation after the smoke clears.
Which international law are you referring to? Is there a clause, page or section you can refer us to?

What part of a hard Brexit would stop people declaring themselves Irish?

LCohen

Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 12:54:17 PM
Quote from: LCohen on April 02, 2019, 12:27:13 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.


I have no problem with your analysis of DUP, the mess they are in and their role in creating their own mess.

But the way you let SF off the hook is shameful.

If we are economically crippled through a hard Brexit what do you say to those who can least afford to take that hit. This idea at look at DUP squirming that will feed and clothe the kids is as ideological hardline, blinkered and morally corrupt as DUP themselves

Again, the reading and comprehension skills here aren't great. I'm not letting Sinn Fein off anything. I've been on this board 20 years and I am as far from a SF sympathiser as you could get. Check back my posts.

However, that doesn't prevent me analysing what their strategy should be. And there is a big difference between strategy and ideology.

I really don't understand your last line, your grammar is all over the shop, but I'm assuming that my view that DUP should be let squirm is ideologically hardline, corrupt, blinkered etc and that I am advocating for children not being fed or clothed?

Parliament has only found a majority for only one position re Brexit in the past 4 months - and that is to rule out a no Deal Brexit, which it has done on two occasion, both with large majorities. So, the odds are very long on a No Deal, even now. And even if Theresa May stumbles the UK into No Deal - either by prevaricating too long or deliberately taking it as an option (which would pit her against Parliament in the worst schism since Charles I), then, as I stated above, NI, uniquely in the UK, has guaranteed its people EU citizenship under the GFA. It couldn't last under international law.

Then throw in the fact that the DUP are now putting the "Union" (or de facto staying as close to the staus quo, including EU alignment) before "Brexit" (in other words a No Deal Brexit led by ERG) and it means that the DUP have accepted the need for a "backstop" and are now simply insisting it apply to the entire UK.

So, given all that, the odds of children going unfed and naked in the streets of Newry are quite small, in my opinion and please tell me if you think I'm wrong.

But at least then we would be arguing about my opinions and not the wrong headed and dishonest interpretation yourself and Trailer are putting on them.

Point taken on the grammar. It isn't easy to type accurately when you are trying to disguise the fact that you are online whilst there is a Cabinet meeting going on in the room

The MPs may have voted against a no deal but what has been the actual impact of that? We can still stumble into a no deal. And you might well have stated that a no deal scenario won't last what is this actually based on??

tyroneman

Quote from: LCohen on April 02, 2019, 01:30:24 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 12:34:23 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 02, 2019, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

So let a "no deal" Brexit happen and f**k all the people in NI? Is that what you think is a good plan?

I'd say the first element of any plan is learning to read. I did not suggest the above. I said that I think that the risk of a No Deal has only increased slightly and even if it does happen, it is completely unsustainable under international law and would not be permanent. Given that, there is no political advantage to Sinn Fein intervening.

The right of all people in Northern Ireland to declare themselves European (Irish) is guaranteed under international law, and can be prosecuted under that law. Which means no deal Brexit for NI is a non runner. And no amount of Brexiteer bluster is going to change that.

The immovable force of the DUP/ERG is about to be introduced to the irresistible force of reality. Stay out of the way of the collision and make sure that you are ready to exploit the situation after the smoke clears.
Which international law are you referring to? Is there a clause, page or section you can refer us to?

What part of a hard Brexit would stop people declaring themselves Irish?

Genuine questuion here, as I'm no lawyer - while the GFA provides the right for NI citizens to call ourselves Irish - what other rights does that actually confer with regard to Europe or RoI?

To my knowledge we can call ourselves Irish and hold an Irish passport but we don't have many other rights that allow us to materially affect anything that happens in the Republic?

trailer

Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 12:34:23 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 02, 2019, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on April 02, 2019, 11:50:48 AM
Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

So let a "no deal" Brexit happen and f**k all the people in NI? Is that what you think is a good plan?

I'd say the first element of any plan is learning to read. I did not suggest the above. I said that I think that the risk of a No Deal has only increased slightly and even if it does happen, it is completely unsustainable under international law and would not be permanent. Given that, there is no political advantage to Sinn Fein intervening.

The right of all people in Northern Ireland to declare themselves European (Irish) is guaranteed under international law, and can be prosecuted under that law. Which means no deal Brexit for NI is a non runner. And no amount of Brexiteer bluster is going to change that.

The immovable force of the DUP/ERG is about to be introduced to the irresistible force of reality. Stay out of the way of the collision and make sure that you are ready to exploit the situation after the smoke clears.

I don't get the significance of being able to declare yourself European? No deal Brexit is the default position in 10 days. That's a fact. Whatever law you're on about, nobody in Ireland, UK or Europe seems privy to it.
This DUP / ERG collision course is pie in the sky. There's 25 or so hardline ERG members who are hell bent on a No deal. There's another block who voted for May's deal. The ERG are as split as the Tory party. There's nothing to collide with the DUP on.

Any form of Brexit is bad news but a No Deal looks more and more likely. This will have significant consequences for people not just in NI but Ireland as well.