The Recession

[The Real Laoislad]

He works all over the Louth, Meath, Cavan area as well as home in south Armagh. Like you he has the small jobs, but even they are few and far between.  He is focusing on gettinh into council work doing servicing of gas systems for the council and may have an opening, but he will be back as an employee something he hasn't been for 20 years!

I do a good bit of work around Meath/Westmeath and often get asked if a know a plumber etc,If you want to pm me his number i don't mind passing it on the next time im asked

[small white mayoman]

in the process of building a house and to tell you the truth i'm getting great quotes from super tradesmen ,as some of the earlier posters said a lot of the cowboys are gone and those that are left are fighting tooth and nail to get the work thats out there. The big developments have come to a standstill for the time beign and its the one off housing thats keeping lads in work in mayo at the moment, for e.g i was getting a quote for windows and the window company are ringing me asking will i go with them whereas before i would have been lucky to get a quote off them as they were too busy dealing with the big delvelopers .

[thebandit]

He works all over the Louth, Meath, Cavan area as well as home in south Armagh. Like you he has the small jobs, but even they are few and far between.  He is focusing on gettinh into council work doing servicing of gas systems for the council and may have an opening, but he will be back as an employee something he hasn't been for 20 years!

I know its a horrid thought for him to go back to 'working for the man' - but it is by far the cleverest option.

I'm involved in a company supplying the building industry, and we have tightened up big time. This is the first year in 20 that we have no new employees taken on, and even simple things like the water cooler are going out the door - we'll do everything we can to keep jobs rather than use this as a first resort. We're lucky as we are a family run company, and people tend to be a it more loyal, so there is a sense that we're all trying to work through this.

LL you were a lucky man that you never became dependant on the larger jobs, as these are the boys who are hardest hit.

[bingobus]

As an accountant, I am seeing more and more people experience sharp changes in their business. This is ranging from issuing increasing P45's for clients (Builders, wholesalers, retail stores, joiners), sole-traders going back into PAYE employment, landlords renegotiating with banks, downsizing etc etc. The small builder may do ok but any that went into larger developments are shedding workers on a monthly basis as jobs are completed. Our office over looks a plant hire companys yard and it is near full at present, last year you play a hurling game in it.

Banks are literally shitting themslves. JP McManus would have bother getting money and its got very expensive at that. A complete turnround from the "call in and we'll fix you up with a 100% loan" to a "75% loan at best with a gun to their heads".

Larger developers are sitting on huge loans for development land that will not see a sod turned for a long while yet. Banks are very nervous and I wouldn't be surprised to see an Irish Bank into trouble along the lines of Northern Rock before things gets better. Look at th share prices, continuly falling in recent times.

Worst of all though, Eddie Hobbs is on the radio talking about it. Its only since he landed on the TV that the economy has taken a downturn. I say Lynch him!!

[ONeill]

Plumbers, painters, gardeners, builders...they're all under the cosh. People simply cannot afford the work to be done at home and the price of materials leaves the above tradesmen in the lurch. We're all doomed. Except for me.

[thebandit]

Our office over looks a plant hire companys yard and it is near full at present, last year you play a hurling game in it.

[bingobus]

Our office over looks a plant hire companys yard and it is near full at present, last year you play a hurling game in it.

Its not in Blayney or Monaghan Town 

[brokencrossbar1]

Worst of all though, Eddie Hobbs is on the radio talking about it. Its only since he landed on the TV that the economy has taken a downturn. I say Lynch him!!

I was listening to him after I listened to Hookie on Newstalk.  they are all saying the same thing and the sooner people get it into their head that we have hit the "wall" in marathon terms the better.  People who quote"we are talking ourselves into recession" seem to disregard the reality that is hitiing the world as a whole.  Do you think the Banks in the States are listening to David McWilliam?  Catch a grip people.  I work for a large MNC.  At the start of last year we brought on 25 new full time operators as business was going so well, this was the first recruitment of operators in 5 years.  4 months ago we announced nearly 4000 job cuts worldwide, with 40 people in Ireland losing their jobs.  Contractors are constantly having their contracts terminated and these jobs are not announced on the radio.  We have approx 250 of them on site at the minute, with 20 having lost their contracts in recent months.  From bringing on new staff last year we have cut staff, cut production and had a headcount freeze.  That is nothing o do with us "talking ourselves into a recession", it has everything to do with the increasing cost of running a business.

[The Real Laoislad]

Plumbers, painters, gardeners, builders...they're all under the cosh. People simply cannot afford the work to be done at home and the price of materials leaves the above tradesmen in the lurch. We're all doomed. Except for me.

I wouldn't entirely agree with that,I find there is a ever increasing amount of small extensions,attic conversions,new kitchens,bathrooms etc being done now,All these projects that people couldn't afford to get done a few years ago because tradesmen could charge what they wanted.Now we see more competitiveness in the market,prices are coming down and people are seeing this as the time to get the work in their house done before things take off again

[ONeill]

Maybe depends where you are. Was talking to a shareholding foreman of a reputable building firm in the north about a fortnight ago and he says he has had to lay off foremen and teams who have been with him for 25 years. Claimed it was heartbreaking. Last week I spoke to a local landscape gardener who says for the first time in his working life, he can only confirm 2 more weeks of work and has also laid off 3 workers. A brother-in-law is a painter and maintains the same.

TRL, I think it's time you really faced the music and ready yourself for a dark, cold winter. You are only kidding yourself. You are also doomed.

[The Real Laoislad]

O'Neil by any chance are you one of the Four Horsemen 

[Tankie]

Maybe depends where you are. Was talking to a shareholding foreman of a reputable building firm in the north about a fortnight ago and he says he has had to lay off foremen and teams who have been with him for 25 years. Claimed it was heartbreaking. Last week I spoke to a local landscape gardener who says for the first time in his working life, he can only confirm 2 more weeks of work and has also laid off 3 workers. A brother-in-law is a painter and maintains the same.

TRL, I think it's time you really faced the music and ready yourself for a dark, cold winter. You are only kidding yourself. You are also doomed.

Ah you boys wont spend money up there so it no surprise that these lads are getting the boot   

I'm with LaoisLad on this one.

[ONeill]

Economic fall-out = USA, following by UK, followed by ROI. You boys have always been slow on the take up. It'll bite ye at the worst time, coming up to Christmas. Suicides will be up and respectable members of the community down there will be blatantly robbing pensioners in daylight and the Guards will be doing nothing because they're not getting any over time and will be encouraging the sale of smack and prostitution as long as they get a cut.

Get out now lads whilst you can and come join us.

[blast05]

Plumbers, painters, gardeners, builders...they're all under the cosh. People simply cannot afford the work to be done at home and the price of materials leaves the above tradesmen in the lurch. We're all doomed. Except for me.

I wouldn't entirely agree with that,I find there is a ever increasing amount of small extensions,attic conversions,new kitchens,bathrooms etc being done now,All these projects that people couldn't afford to get done a few years ago because tradesmen could charge what they wanted.Now we see more competitiveness in the market,prices are coming down and people are seeing this as the time to get the work in their house done before things take off again

You seem to be trying to convince yourself that you won't be effected. Fair enough but putting on extensions now or building from scratch is bugger all cheaper now than 3 or 4 years ago cos while labour costs have dropped, it has been more than made up for the  increase in the price of materials.

[Bogball XV]

I will expect this current period of doom and gloom /disaster type scenario to change in early 2009.

Recently have heard of a few sites starting up again, as regeneration in Dublin city centre , plus moves to combat the short housing supply re-start.

the 'economists' and 'media' wont be happy until they have someones head on a spike outside dublin castle !

We are 'talking ourselves' into 'another' recession again I see.
OK things are not as financially abundant as they may have been during the previous three or four (I apathetically lost count) 'recessions' but unless the euro melts, the remaining jobs/call centres/financial industry employers etc do a moonlight flit over to bangalore as well, then we still have enough domestic turnover and local economy to not make any effect on the nations trade and viability.
Certainly the building sector is being hardest hit, but with so many cowboys of our own and from foreign climes (who all of a sudden declared they were skilled tradesmen of some description when they were most def not) - with these chancers being found out and let go, the industry will return to where it should be in the not too distant future.

we will see, hopefully this will be the case

Nah LB, we seriously are fcuked this time - I can't see any way out of it, as jobs are lost, so more jobs have to be lost, that's just the way it is.  Each lost job causes at least one more job to be lost, but more likely 2/3, it's the multiplier effect, but this time in reverse.  We benefited the other way on the way up, so we have to take our medicine on the way down.  The only salvation could arise if we were to produce something that people outside our economy were willing to pay for, with our current cost base that's not going to happen.  We are just going to have to sit it out until equilibrium is reached on our cost base again.  The truth is folks we are all paid way too much, not that we're any richer than the rest of europe for it, since the additional wages we have only serve to service the larger mortgages we have.
As for the 'talking ourselves into recession' quote, no so more than when we talked ourselves in a property bubble in the first place.