Brexit.

[screenexile]

Boris has backed himself into a corner... If the legislation passes then he has to face the Brexit Party and he won't get a majority.

He needs the election before Oct 31st and to fight it on a No deal platform to get rid of them and he'll get a majority back but it doesn't look like it's possible.

It wasn't exactly sexy football but that was compelling viewing tonight it's a pity that so much is riding on it I'd rather it happened somewhere that doesn't affect me!!

[omaghjoe]

If Corbyn wasnt such and ideologist he could have kept his party together, prob even stole a few tory mps, been an acceptable face for a caretaker government, been able to take his party and electorate with a coordinated strategy for brexit. He could have had and won a vote of confidence as well as a GE and he'd be sitting in downing street at the minute with the Tories in disarray.
But he cant let go of his precious ideology that were borne while the world has utterly different place. Its is the epitome of fiddling while Rome burns.

As was put to John McDonnel last night...."theres an open goal and you cant score"

Also I thought it hilarious that every week at the dispatch box Thresea May would give him a good hiding  while her world was imploding.

Explain the actions that Corbyn should have taken that would have united the 4 divisions in his parliamentary party (being MPs in Remain constituencies, MPs in leave constituencies that voted leave overall, MPs in constituencies where the Labour vote voted to leave and fourthly Kate Hoey)?

Name the Tory MPs that would have moved across?

The caretaker government is going to do nothing other than extend Article 50 and call a general election. Name the MPs that object to no deal Brexit but will sit on their hands if Corbyn plays a role in the solution. More importantly outline your opinion of these MPs??

What coordinated Brexit strategy will get the buy in of Labour MPs, members and voters? You are arguing that Labour should be a clear party for Leave

You say he could have won a no confidence vote. On what date? Which Tory MPs would have voted for it? What commentators said it would have been won? Your talk of GE is conditional on your No confidence "argument"

So set out the details

1. His Parliamentary party is more or less united on Brexit, how many actually vote against the whip? 10 or something? Last time out it was only Hoey.... let her be and deselect at the next election. Or dig up some dirt and have a petition for her removal followed by a by election which she would be duly crucified by a Remain candidate. My point is he would have much more leverage and weight with the whip to easily deal with rebels if he had stable support but he doesn't... half his parliamentary party would love to get rid of him so he has to do everything by the book and he's always scrambling to appease someone?

2. Prob the ones that actually left the Tory party and formed another one with a group of Labour MPs.... who incidentally are pissed off with his economic delusion but use anti Seminitism as a smoke screen. And maybe some of the others who lost the whip.

3. The Lib Dems for a start... not to mention the sensible Remain Tories.

4. No, prob just support a ref2 and present it as a democratic 3 way vote with the exit deal presented as a third option. IN an election talk lots about the Brexit party and emphasis Tory austerity while presenting Labour as a sensible option of sustainable growth by a moderate tax regime which will providing income to support the NHS and social welfare. Then just cut your loses on the Leave seats, the marginal seats won would more than make up for the those lost.

5. Hmmm i dunno...... maybe after Theresa May's catastrophic series of record defeats? Being an unacceptable option as PM was enuff to deter them so being more acceptable and a few underhand tactics like promising weak Labour candidates in targeted marginal Remain seats could have also have brought a few. The reality if he had a more centrist approach he would have had greater all around support and he would have been able to put much more pressure on her much earlier and forced her resignation... indeed he would prob have won the election...


Besides all of this is pointless.... its obvious that he is not the man for the job.... FFS its says it all when he has to have someone like Diane Abbot as a senior member of his cabinet

Outline the united position that Barry Gardiner, John Mann, Yvette Cooper, Jess Philips and Kier Starmer are "more or less united on Brexit on"?

Current estimation is that up to 45 Labour MPs would stand in the way of a second referendum if asked to vote in favour of it. The number that would ignore the whip if Labour backed May's deal is unknown but likely to be 100+. Your tactics for dealing with rebels couldn't cope with these numbers.

Outline the policy positions adopted by Soubry, Allen and Wollaston over the years that they could reconcile with joining Labour - any version of the Labour Party noting that only 2 Tory MPs have ever defected to Labour in history including all previous centrist versions of the Party under other leaders

So what is your opinion (given you don't like ideological politicians) of these LDs and Tories that will let a no deal happen if the only alternative is a 90 day caretaker Labour government

You think a 3 way Vote is going to bring a conclusion to this?? To be honest that reads like a massive failure on your part to grasp the basics of the situation but i'll happily read your response outlining how it would work?

What numbers are you using for these swing seat that Labour would lose and win???

Your point 5 is wonderfully loose and plucked from the realm of fantasy. No confidence votes are exceptionally difficult to pull off. You need Tory MPs to end their own careers. Some older MPs or ones already resigned to deselection are prime targets but the numbers were never within reach back then. They are closer now (as there is a reducing number of Labour rebels as the Tory position hardens)

They vast majority high 90% have voted with the whip Who are those 45? Where were they during the meaning votes etc?

Certainly not the current policy of the Labour leadership, they upped sticks and left to join other Labour MPs that tell you that they cant be that far away from their position

What does my opinion matter on a Labour government..... it wont happen? If a no deal was allowed as that was presented as the only alternative it would be a shameful act by all involved. Whats your opinion on the Labour leadership allowing that situation to develop?

3 way vote is simple enough.... hardly really need to outline it. But sure that ship has sailed at this point

Poll numbers... a slim majority of the electorate appear to be remainers with some undecided... so a united strategy from that side and a centrist economic outlook should be enough to win the majority  over.

So its plucked from the realms of fantasy but its gonna happen... dunno what point your making there?


Besides this is pointless Corbyn is not the man for the job he is a slave to ideology not a political leader. If he was a stronger leader that reflected more broadly the position of the electrode he would have more support instead of fumbling around and constantly looking over his shoulder

Although I must say I am surprised that a Unionist  is so blindly supporting a potential British PM who supports a UI

My figure of 45 comes from Nick Watt. The highest figure I've seen is 50. That was was from Stephen Kinnock. I would believe Watt

Labour have put forward something. Others are free to so. And they might yet. I just find it incredible that someone can blame Corbyn for something somebody else hasn't done

A 3 way option on this issue is basically guaranteed to not provide a majority. It's a non solution. So yes you have a whole lot of explaining to do on it

You are asking for an end of at least a suspension of the party system. Not easy to do. Have other Remain leaders backed this?? Are you sure it wouldn't be trumped by the Leave campaign and Cummings?? It's high risk and highly complicated. To offer it as a solution and blame Corbin for it not happening is Trumpian in its sloganeering duplicity

My point on a no confidence vote is straight forward. The numbers were not there during the May period. Under Boris things are starting to change. Johnson's underhand tactics and his seeming appetite for no deal are stirring Tory rebels. The clock is running down so they feel they gotta act now. Also any Tory rebels have to counter any Labour rebels. If it's a no deal on offer then the number of Labour rebels recedes. There may be an opportunity to successfully prosecute a no confidence vote next week but there has not been to date. And people should not pretend that this has been sitting there as an easy option all along

Thats the most pessimistic Ive ever heard and not bore out on the critical votes so its really hypothetical fantasy stuff and since you've moved the goal posts a strawman into the bargin

What Critical Votes have there been on a second referendum.

The account of a respected journalist that has been accurate to date in reporting the planned actions of MPs is not to be dismissed as hypothetical fantasy.
What goal posts have I moved? What is this talk of a strawman?? Seems a bit rambling.

Preference voting? Run off? not that much of stretch unless your deliberately trying to be obtuse

Have you read The Economist article by Peter Kellner? I dont think Kellner is being obtuse when he completely rumbles the flaws in preference voting and a run off in trying to unpick the Brexit riddle. And I'm not being obtuse either.

A major factor that the numbers weren't there during May's time was Corbyn himself..... but we're just going round in circles now

So spell it out. What were the numbers and who were the names of Tory MPs who were prepared to vote down a Tory government and end their own political careers during the May era and only refrained from doing so because of Corbyn. Bet you cant even name one.

I not asking for anything but its probably thats prob the only route available at the minute considering how divided the remain side are. In the scenario that Labour had a more moderate stronger leader they could easily attract voters across the political spectrum and be a focal point to those opposed to a hard Brexit.

And what about the Leavers within Labour? Surely the Labour leader has to lsiten to them also? But then again you plain just dont believe Nick Watt and reliable political sources. You stick to your alternative facts

Besides I am not blaming Corbyn per se he's incapable, he is only doing what is in his powers which is the point your are trying to make and he is clearly not the man for the job. If there was a strong leader of the opposition he could easily command discipline within his own party and would be a rallying point for other no deal opponents.

Discipline on Europe?? Name me the alternative Labour Leader that can hold Caroline Flint, Kate Hoey, John Mann, Stephen Kinnock, Phil Wilson, Ian Lavery, Yvette Cooper and Hillary Benn to a single position on Europe?? And when you are naming the alternative leader tell me what their position on Europe would be??

I will let you off on Hoey. But who is going to unify the rest?

You have been arguing down that Labour dont have support for ref2 or something (which is debatable but have the debate with yourself if you want), as a response to me making the point that Labour have good discipline on Brexit and Europe. That type of logical error is known as a strawman

You have a hypothetical notion that your running with however it has not been borne out in reality as theere have been very few Labour rebels on Brexit or indeed Europe as has always been the case.

NO I havent read some random article in some random magazine

The Tory rebels on Europe were always there and even with expulsion hanging over their heads they all of a sudden are coming out of the wood work when Corbyn compromised and started to work with a cross party effort on Brexit.

Clearly you have difficultly in understanding what the whip is or how it works? Different MPs have different positions but they follow the lead of the party to get things done and to maintain power within their bloc.

And all of this is a sideline to Corncob ( that was autocorrect) being completely incompetent as Leader of the Opposition on this issue...... but he may just have turned a corner. Lets see if he can keep his ego in check by holding off on a GE that he is never gonna win.

[Wildweasel74]

If Corbyn stood aside for the good of the country there be a good chance of a Labour winning an election

[t_mac]

Interesting times....the new government hasnt won a single vote. 
Phillip Hammond chancellor a few weeks having the whip removed along with 20 or so others.

Doesn't all this play into BJ hands to an extent in terms of an election.... which will likely happen before the end of the year?
He can now say that he has nothing to do with an extension or anything else to do with Brexit now he can blame it Labour and evey1 else.
So now he can run on a message of pretty much "if you want the Brexit you voted for.... vote for me"

One tory MP was on the politics show and said it is now no-deal or no-brexit, Labour should get the law passed and then have an election.

[t_mac]

He's only spent one day at the dispatch box in Westminster as PM, and unless he and Dominic Cummings are actually evoking some secret fiendish plan which desired tonight's result in the Commons, then he's already in desperate need to buy some paddles from the General Store at Sh*t Creek.

I watched a lot of it - wasting a day off, he was utterly useless, man can't string a sentence together, the cabinet looked less than impressed in the background!

[Dougal Maguire]

My theory. Boris has no majority anymore and wants an election, preferably with Brexit sorted. DUP now no use to him. Surely the sensible thing is go for NI only backstop put that through parliament then when he's done that and can leave with a deal by 31 October, go for election

[t_mac]

My theory. Boris has no majority anymore and wants an election, preferably with Brexit sorted. DUP now no use to him. Surely the sensible thing is go for NI only backstop put that through parliament then when he's done that and can leave with a deal by 31 October, go for election

Boris wants no deal full stop.

[Hound]

My theory. Boris has no majority anymore and wants an election, preferably with Brexit sorted. DUP now no use to him. Surely the sensible thing is go for NI only backstop put that through parliament then when he's done that and can leave with a deal by 31 October, go for election

NI only backstop, but with a timelimit, say 5 years, is the obvious answer that everyone would eventually sign up to. (Even DUP could claim that as a win if they get a timelimit imposed). The 5 years (extendable if all sides agree) would give opportunity to do a new trade deal between EU and UK, such that no border would be required on our island.

But it actually requires movement on the side of the EU first. And I don't think the top EU politicians want it. It's actually up to Ireland to push it, but we don't want to be the ones seen to blink first. But we've got by far the most to lose, so we do need to remember that.

If there was a UK referendum on No Deal or No Brexit, then No Brexit would win. However, if there's an election first, then all the Tories need is about 35% for a majority and that then could result in No Deal exit.

Even at this late stage, nobody can predict what will happen. But if we all make guesses, one of us might get it right!

[BennyHarp]

If the bill is passed today stopping a no deal brexit and a general election follows in which Boris manages to win a workable majority (most likely with some help from BXP) then is there any reason why they couldn't reverse todays bill in parliament straight away and plough on with their no deal brexit?

[haranguerer]

My theory. Boris has no majority anymore and wants an election, preferably with Brexit sorted. DUP now no use to him. Surely the sensible thing is go for NI only backstop put that through parliament then when he's done that and can leave with a deal by 31 October, go for election

NI only backstop, but with a timelimit, say 5 years, is the obvious answer that everyone would eventually sign up to. (Even DUP could claim that as a win if they get a timelimit imposed). The 5 years (extendable if all sides agree) would give opportunity to do a new trade deal between EU and UK, such that no border would be required on our island.

There can't be a time limit on the backstop. It ceases to perform its (very necessary) purpose if there is. 'Even DUP....' nothing - they'd rip your hand off for it! And are on record as saying so.

[trileacman]

No deal is never off the table. It's impossible to legislate for its complete abolishment. Today's vote only stops a no deal on 31st of October.

[Hound]

My theory. Boris has no majority anymore and wants an election, preferably with Brexit sorted. DUP now no use to him. Surely the sensible thing is go for NI only backstop put that through parliament then when he's done that and can leave with a deal by 31 October, go for election

NI only backstop, but with a timelimit, say 5 years, is the obvious answer that everyone would eventually sign up to. (Even DUP could claim that as a win if they get a timelimit imposed). The 5 years (extendable if all sides agree) would give opportunity to do a new trade deal between EU and UK, such that no border would be required on our island.

There can't be a time limit on the backstop. It ceases to perform its (very necessary) purpose if there is. 'Even DUP....' nothing - they'd rip your hand off for it! And are on record as saying so.

Of course there can be a timelimit.

Insisting on a timelimit for the backstop means there ends up being no backstop at all (i.e. No Deal).

5 years gives time to move away from political nonsense and deal with social and commercial interests where nobody actually wants a border so a proper deal can be done.

[mouview]

If Corbyn stood aside for the good of the country there be a good chance of a Labour winning an election

I've been fairly critical of Corbyn for a good while now, but I have to say he's actually done well for himself in the past week or so, looking far more the statesman than Johnson is, and seemingly managing behind closed doors to negotiate with other opposition parties & MPs to help bring together a "No no-deal" pact in the Commons when a fortnight ago some were cool on the idea - I guess there was something there to be thrown out with and then work more together with the Lib Dems, SNP, Independents etc. on consensus of a temporary government of national unity like I mentioned in the post above. He and his handlers need to keep themselves on the firm and narrow and not get goaded by Johnson & Cummings. He may not become PM to lead Britain with his own political vision, but he could put his name down in the history books as a PM whom helped lead the country to untangle itself from its own self-made crises - and if he did that he might actually then be elected PM in a future election having shown that he's capable, or maybe not.

Agree with this. The past week he's looked a lot more 'mature' and statesmanlike, something which hopefully shouldn't go unnoticed at the ballot box.

[mouview]

Interesting times....the new government hasnt won a single vote. 
Phillip Hammond chancellor a few weeks having the whip removed along with 20 or so others.

Doesn't all this play into BJ hands to an extent in terms of an election.... which will likely happen before the end of the year?
He can now say that he has nothing to do with an extension or anything else to do with Brexit now he can blame it Labour and evey1 else.
So now he can run on a message of pretty much "if you want the Brexit you voted for.... vote for me"

One tory MP was on the politics show and said it is now no-deal or no-brexit, Labour should get the law passed and then have an election.

In reality I think it's long been this. For some reason, no-one wants to own up to the fact that there's no chance of getting a compromise deal through the house.

Surely BoJo calling for an election exposes as a sham any pretence that he's trying to negotiate a deal with Brussels.

Should the Bill be passed this week, and there's still probably no certainty that it will, can the opposition force Johnston to go back to the EU on or before the summit on October 19th to ask for a deal? Equally, can they hold off on giving their assent to a GE until after October 31st, thus spiking Johnston's repeated promise about leaving by then, "No ifs, no buts" and make him appear weaker again?

Thank God for Gina Miller.

[magpie seanie]

If Corbyn stood aside for the good of the country there be a good chance of a Labour winning an election

I've been fairly critical of Corbyn for a good while now, but I have to say he's actually done well for himself in the past week or so, looking far more the statesman than Johnson is, and seemingly managing behind closed doors to negotiate with other opposition parties & MPs to help bring together a "No no-deal" pact in the Commons when a fortnight ago some were cool on the idea - I guess there was something there to be thrown out with and then work more together with the Lib Dems, SNP, Independents etc. on consensus of a temporary government of national unity like I mentioned in the post above. He and his handlers need to keep themselves on the firm and narrow and not get goaded by Johnson & Cummings. He may not become PM to lead Britain with his own political vision, but he could put his name down in the history books as a PM whom helped lead the country to untangle itself from its own self-made crises - and if he did that he might actually then be elected PM in a future election having shown that he's capable, or maybe not.

Agree with this. The past week he's looked a lot more 'mature' and statesmanlike, something which hopefully shouldn't go unnoticed at the ballot box.

I hate to say I told you so but......

Corbyn has had to endure a simply outlandish and disgusting constant barrage of smears for the last 4 years. When people actually get to see that he's not a 5 headed Stalinist anti semite Czech spy but someone who actually gives a fcuk about people he'll get the rewards he deserves. And Britain deserves.

Johnson is absolutely dispicable as is the Tory establishment. I hope their collapse is complete and long lasting.