26 County General Election 2020

[mouview]

Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

SF would probably get more seats in a second election because they didn't manage their vote well this time.

It is high politics.

It looks like they'd get 7-8 seats more right now but you'd never know how a campaign would work out, the 15%(?) in the local / European elections shouldn't be forgotten

In other countries Euro elections are a chance for voters to let off some steam and not as serious as general elections.

The system seems to be in transition. The number of independents is a sign of a breakdown in discipline in FF and FG.

It's a sign that people want change, Seaf. But, like Brexit, it seems a lot of the people don't really know what they want and just latched onto a meaningless slogan. Now, like the British people, I fear we're shortly to feel the cold winds of being snubbed and not being at the centre of things when important discussions soon begin in Brussels and elsewhere.

[yellowcard]

SF have probably found that they done 'too well' in this election with the onus on them now forming part of the next government. The attempts at a left wing coalition of chaos will end up a blind alley as it is simply posturing due to the numbers. I expect that after some weeks of wrangling and manoeuvring that a FF/SF/Green coalition will eventually emerge as the country cannot continue in limbo ad infinitum. Looking at the numbers it is the most obvious coalition. All sides will eventually have to concede that they have to put country before party. At the moment the opposite is happening as all sides are looking after the party first and foremost.   

[Rudi]

Thomas Pringle back in.

Why, what has he done, shout his mouth off from the back benches, like a typical lefty. Remind you of someone?

[Applesisapples]

As a Nordie I am equally as embarrassed and annoyed by Cullinane's antics as by Andersons. Not as annoyed as Mary Lou though I'd say. Also Elisha McCallion obviously as no sense of the enormity of her rejection in Derry given her tweeting.

[seafoid]

Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

SF would probably get more seats in a second election because they didn't manage their vote well this time.

It is high politics.

It looks like they'd get 7-8 seats more right now but you'd never know how a campaign would work out, the 15%(?) in the local / European elections shouldn't be forgotten

In other countries Euro elections are a chance for voters to let off some steam and not as serious as general elections.

The system seems to be in transition. The number of independents is a sign of a breakdown in discipline in FF and FG.

It's a sign that people want change, Seaf. But, like Brexit, it seems a lot of the people don't really know what they want and just latched onto a meaningless slogan. Now, like the British people, I fear we're shortly to feel the cold winds of being snubbed and not being at the centre of things when important discussions soon begin in Brussels and elsewhere.

Senior hurling

https://monthlyreview.org/2011/03/01/structural-crisis-in-the-world-system/

People feel something is wrong but can't express it well. They may feel.more comfortable voting for an independent.

Politicians struggle Journalists are lost.
Compare Friday's Indo to today's.

There won'y be meaningful change until we get a new system


« No matter how well written or delivered, a speech cannot divert whole societies from a well established course of action. Policies in motion tend to stay in motion ; to change the trajectory of a deeply embedded set of initiatives requires the application of political forces of equal motion »

Steve Walt 

Thst is also a great hurling quote -eg the 2012 all Ireland final

[magpie seanie]

The result is interesting but it's going to make the next few weeks interesting. My read on the largest 3 parties positions:

FF:

Public position: It's up to SF....people voted for change...we need a rethink...
Privately: Desperate for power....well, Micheál Martin anyway. I think though that his leadership is under question and an agreement with SF might test it to the limit. Confidence and supply - not an option. Very shaky ground.
Appetite for another election: Low.

SF:

Public position: Want to lead a left wing government. No FF or FG please.
Private position: will try and work something with the left wing groups and independents but aware it mightn't be possible to put a stable government together. Go for a minority/small majority with a lot of stress and potentially short term or go in with FF and Greens for longer term stability and chance to implement policies. Both carry risks. Try to keep both options open as long as possible and be ready to play the - "the establishment wouldn't let us into power" card.
Appetite for another election: Prefer not but in the right circumstances....

FG:

Public position: After all we did for ye, this is the thanks we get. We're taking our ball home....
Private position: After all we did for ye, this is the thanks we get. We're taking our ball home....
Appetite for another election: Screw you guys. We have to get rid of Leo first.

[Hound]

Effectively 21 independents. This is them. SF need 14, assuming they can reach agreement with the other small parties (which is a big assumption given the history of left parties disagreeing with each other, but they've never had as big an opportunity)

About 10 of these are left or leftish, if the information below is correct, and a few more in the centre. So technically it's not without hope, but practically each one will want his/her pound of flesh, so you wouldn't bet on agreement:

Clare - Michael McNamara (former Labour, left)
Cork South-West - Michael Collins (Ind - seems to be right wing)
Donegal - Thomas Pringle (ex-SF - left)
Dublin South-Central - Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change - left)
Galway East - Sean Canney (Ind – centre?)
Galway West - Noel Grealish (ex-PD, right)
Galway West - Catherine Connolly (ex Labour, left)
Kerry - Michael Healy-Rae (right)
Kerry - Danny Healy Rae (right)
Kildare South - Cathal Berry (Ind, open to talking to SF, so left)
Laois-Offaly - Carol Nolan (recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Limerick County - Richard Ó'Donoghue (ex FF)
Louth - Peter Fitzpatrick (ex FG, resigned due to abortion policy)
Meath West  - Peadar Tóibín (Aontú, recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Roscommon-Galway - Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind, endorsed by Luke Ming, pro farmer, not keen on the Greens policies)
Roscommon-Galway - Denis Naughten (ex FG, right)
Sligo-Leitrim - Marian Harkin (Ind – leans left)
Tipperary - Michael Lowry (ex FG, right)
Tipperary - Mattie McGrath (ex FF, pro life, left FF after losing whip for voting against the ban on stag hunting)
Waterford - Matt Shanahan (Ind – seems to lean left)
Wexford - Verona Murphy (ex FG, right)

A lot of those independents would change their left/right leanings if there was something on the table

For sure!

"We're goina need a bigger table!"

I'd say the list of demands from the 21 would make for interesting reading 

[Rossfan]

As a Nordie I am equally as embarrassed and annoyed by Cullinane's antics as by Andersons. Not as annoyed as Mary Lou though I'd say.

I'd say some of the 24% who gave SF no.1s are overboard already as a result.
Some FFrs canvassing in Westmeath were told at a few houses "No, we're  voting for the Sinn Féin man".
Sorcha Clarke was HER name

[RadioGAAGAA]

SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.

This is why representative democracy is a load of bullshít.

There is nothing to stop questions like that (and more relevant ones) going on a separate ballot aside from the main election.

Then the incoming parties know exactly what the people want.


Representative democracy - pick out 2 or 3 lies from our list of lies that you like - ignoring the rest of our lies that you don't like - and we'll promise to do our very best to do fúck all about delivering these lies. Then "vote for change" in 4 years time to bring back the crowd that shafted you 8 years ago.


It ain't the fúcking (communications) stone age any more - so why are we persisting with a method of government that was invented before the telegram?

[ardtole]

Would sinn fein have a strong hand in dealing with a lot of the independents and smaller parties? Do a deal with us or face a re-election, we will stand more candidates, absorb the cost of another campaign and risk losing your seat after 6 months.

[ardtole]

A lot of them got elected on the back of sf surpluses.

[trailer]

Would sinn fein have a strong hand in dealing with a lot of the independents and smaller parties? Do a deal with us or face a re-election, we will stand more candidates, absorb the cost of another campaign and risk losing your seat after 6 months.

I think that's what is likely to happen. Forming a left coalition is going to be difficult. Would they go down the SF/FF/Green route? Who knows. It definitely would favour SF to go again.

[macdanger2]

Would sinn fein have a strong hand in dealing with a lot of the independents and smaller parties? Do a deal with us or face a re-election, we will stand more candidates, absorb the cost of another campaign and risk losing your seat after 6 months.

They might but surely they'd know that said independents would sink them at the first available opportunity

[Rossfan]

Threats wont work with Independents.
Bribes...I mean investments for their Constituencies......now yer talkin

[J70]

Thomas Pringle back in.

Why, what has he done, shout his mouth off from the back benches, like a typical lefty. Remind you of someone?

Who is he supposed to remind me of?

And nothing wrong with the odd fly in the ointment raising concerns on behalf of the less fortunate.