China Coronavirus

[Seaney]

You're a very angry man Seaney 

If you include ICU you're a magnitude of 6 down...

I see where you're coming from and I think it's went a bit mad with the lockdowns but if it keeps going how it's going this last few weeks we're in big bother. What were the stats today? 1765 NHS staff / health workers are currently off sick? Basically something needs done and they don't know what to do.

That's astounding, so if one doesn't comply to the narrative you can infer anger through several posts?

[sid waddell]

This thing comes in waves angelo. It is very hard to tell whether we are in the same place as them wave wise. There are many articles you could find to tell you how terrible the swedish approach is for every one that tells you how good it is.

It will come in waves when your lock people up for months and then open things up again.

Or you can try and live with it like the Swedes are doing.

The Swedes seem to be taking a long term approach here, we seem to using lockdown as a sticky plaster in the vain hope that we will have a vaccine in the short term.

Sweden had 1,180 cases a few days ago

They are still weeks behind us in their wave because they took longer to come out of their first wave

From what I can make out there is growing anger in Sweden at how they've handled things

Nope, Sweden never entered draconian lockdown measures, they will have a more steady flow of the virus.

When you cage an animal and then release it into the wild, what happens?

We need to learn to live with it. The government strategy seems to be lockdown to get numbers down before we open up and enter another lockdown. The consequences of this strategy is going to be absolutely catastrophic on society.

The current data shows the fatality rates of the virus has dropped by double digit multiples since the first wave, we don't know why but that's what it shows.

Why is Sweden now moving towards a model much more in line with the rest of Europe?

Because their strategy didn't work

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-sweden-anti-lockdown-new-restrictions-cases-rise-1540243?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1603115177

[sid waddell]

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality

This is way beyond epidemiological the societal effects now and going forward are horrendous.

What are you proposing to fix the problem?

Let folk live.

But by doing that, a hell of a lot more people will die

A slogan isn't a plan

[Angelo]

This thing comes in waves angelo. It is very hard to tell whether we are in the same place as them wave wise. There are many articles you could find to tell you how terrible the swedish approach is for every one that tells you how good it is.

It will come in waves when your lock people up for months and then open things up again.

Or you can try and live with it like the Swedes are doing.

The Swedes seem to be taking a long term approach here, we seem to using lockdown as a sticky plaster in the vain hope that we will have a vaccine in the short term.

Sweden had 1,180 cases a few days ago

They are still weeks behind us in their wave because they took longer to come out of their first wave

From what I can make out there is growing anger in Sweden at how they've handled things

Nope, Sweden never entered draconian lockdown measures, they will have a more steady flow of the virus.

When you cage an animal and then release it into the wild, what happens?

We need to learn to live with it. The government strategy seems to be lockdown to get numbers down before we open up and enter another lockdown. The consequences of this strategy is going to be absolutely catastrophic on society.

The current data shows the fatality rates of the virus has dropped by double digit multiples since the first wave, we don't know why but that's what it shows.

Why is Sweden now moving towards a model much more in line with the rest of Europe?

Because their strategy didn't work

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-sweden-anti-lockdown-new-restrictions-cases-rise-1540243?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1603115177

Sweden is not moving towards a lockdown model.

Their incidence rate is one of the lowest in Europe. You are being completely disingenuous here and misleading.

[imtommygunn]

You're a very angry man Seaney 

If you include ICU you're a magnitude of 6 down...

I see where you're coming from and I think it's went a bit mad with the lockdowns but if it keeps going how it's going this last few weeks we're in big bother. What were the stats today? 1765 NHS staff / health workers are currently off sick? Basically something needs done and they don't know what to do.

That's astounding, so if one doesn't comply to the narrative you can infer anger through several posts?

Just through some comments on your posts...

Look I see where you're coming from but this thing is spiraling. We're up (in the north) about 250% in hospital admissions from it in 2 weeks. That needs to get bounded somehow.

Letting folk live is fine but there needs to be some kind of restrictions somewhere. What if it grows 250% in the next 2 weeks? Big trouble.

[Seaney]

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality

This is way beyond epidemiological the societal effects now and going forward are horrendous.

What are you proposing to fix the problem?

Let folk live.

But by doing that, a hell of a lot more people will die

A slogan isn't a plan

And you want me to give the solution - what isn't the solution is causing more deaths with the cure than the cause, at this stage everyone knows who the most vulnerable are, care homes are basically closed, education and social responsibility are a better way forward than lockdowns.  What is your plan, your end game, keep everyone locked up until a mystery untested vaccine appears?

[J70]

How about people follow the rules and stop going about their lives as if there's nothing wrong? Might be less calls for lockdowns then.

It's worked pretty well so far here in NYC, which had a huge outbreak at the outset in the spring. Aside from recent very localized restrictions imposed due to the conduct of certain groups, we are moving along all right. No Broadway shows or cinemas or games/concerts in the Garden, but you can go to a museum or get a drink and sit inside a restaurant, albeit one that is not packed out. But then this is a liberal city where most of us sheeple people are happy to wear masks and pay heed to social distancing and hygiene recommendations.

[Angelo]

You're a very angry man Seaney 

If you include ICU you're a magnitude of 6 down...

I see where you're coming from and I think it's went a bit mad with the lockdowns but if it keeps going how it's going this last few weeks we're in big bother. What were the stats today? 1765 NHS staff / health workers are currently off sick? Basically something needs done and they don't know what to do.

That's astounding, so if one doesn't comply to the narrative you can infer anger through several posts?

Just through some comments on your posts...

Look I see where you're coming from but this thing is spiraling. We're up (in the north) about 250% in hospital admissions from it in 2 weeks. That needs to get bounded somehow.

Letting folk live is fine but there needs to be some kind of restrictions somewhere. What if it grows 250% in the next 2 weeks? Big trouble.

What if it doesn't grow 250% in 2 weeks?

[imtommygunn]

You are some craic

Ok so if it doesn't grow and you're over prepared is that not better than if you do nothing and then the arse falls out of the whole thing and there are not even any beds left?

[Seaney]

You're a very angry man Seaney 

If you include ICU you're a magnitude of 6 down...

I see where you're coming from and I think it's went a bit mad with the lockdowns but if it keeps going how it's going this last few weeks we're in big bother. What were the stats today? 1765 NHS staff / health workers are currently off sick? Basically something needs done and they don't know what to do.

That's astounding, so if one doesn't comply to the narrative you can infer anger through several posts?

Just through some comments on your posts...

Look I see where you're coming from but this thing is spiraling. We're up (in the north) about 250% in hospital admissions from it in 2 weeks. That needs to get bounded somehow.

Letting folk live is fine but there needs to be some kind of restrictions somewhere. What if it grows 250% in the next 2 weeks? Big trouble.

And what if it doesn't and what if someone locked up takes the head staggers as they have lost their job and goes on a rampage, and what of in the next two weeks we see a spiral suicide rate, hundreds of business closing,  folk dying because they hare afraid to go to A&E with chest pains or the likes, apologies if certain words make you conclude that I am a very angry man, maybe frustrated by the narrative that is achieving nothing but huge societal damage is more apt.

[Ed Ricketts]

On what basis is it quite likely right?

The thing about March and April is an outlier an anomaly. Spain have had nearly 3 times the no of positive cases in the past 2 months than they had back in March and April and the fatality rate per cases has fallen in double digit multiples - why is that? Surely that deserves to be highlighted and examined and the current data should be the one guiding our decisions rather than anomalies 6/7 months ago.

The mood around the vaccine. That's a mood - nothing is concrete but I'll put it to you this way. A vaccine comes out next year - I have two options:

a) Take a vaccine rushed through production stage, with very limited test results and no basis of potential side effects
b) Take my chances with a virus that probably presents nothing more that mild symptoms for 99.5% of my demograph

More testing.

Not up north. We are only doing 4-5k tests a day and returning circa 20% positive rates.

If you were to convert the fatality rates as accurate now and consider them consistent with the no of cases in the first wave it would mean that rather than 6,229 positive cases by the end of July we would actually would have had 150k people infected.

That's close to 10% of the population.

More testing is definitely part of the reason. In April we were testing under 1000 a day. It's not the only factor, There are other factors like improved treatment, lower age group of infected who are able to fight it better, lag in death rates compared to todays infection rates etc. But increased testing is definitely part of the reason we have higher case to death ratio. And yes I do believe there's been more infected in NI that was believed initially.

Testing numbers in the north are an order of magnitude greater than in the early days of the pandemic. Angelo does not seem to have factored this into his thesis about falling mortality rates.


A 20% positive test return rate and 4-5000 tests a day are also not accurate. Not the first time his figures have been off on this thread.


For anyone still in doubt, this is not a person that wants to have this discussion in good faith. His numbers are, and have been, routinely exaggerated, misinterpreted, or distorted to suit a narrative.

[sid waddell]

This thing comes in waves angelo. It is very hard to tell whether we are in the same place as them wave wise. There are many articles you could find to tell you how terrible the swedish approach is for every one that tells you how good it is.

It will come in waves when your lock people up for months and then open things up again.

Or you can try and live with it like the Swedes are doing.

The Swedes seem to be taking a long term approach here, we seem to using lockdown as a sticky plaster in the vain hope that we will have a vaccine in the short term.

Sweden had 1,180 cases a few days ago

They are still weeks behind us in their wave because they took longer to come out of their first wave

From what I can make out there is growing anger in Sweden at how they've handled things

Nope, Sweden never entered draconian lockdown measures, they will have a more steady flow of the virus.

When you cage an animal and then release it into the wild, what happens?

We need to learn to live with it. The government strategy seems to be lockdown to get numbers down before we open up and enter another lockdown. The consequences of this strategy is going to be absolutely catastrophic on society.

The current data shows the fatality rates of the virus has dropped by double digit multiples since the first wave, we don't know why but that's what it shows.

Why is Sweden now moving towards a model much more in line with the rest of Europe?

Because their strategy didn't work

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-sweden-anti-lockdown-new-restrictions-cases-rise-1540243?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1603115177

Sweden is not moving towards a lockdown model.

Their incidence rate is one of the lowest in Europe. You are being completely disingenuous here and misleading.

Read the article I linked to

Sweden has one of the highest death rates in Europe and is in the top ten in the world

They have failed spectacularly compared to their neighbours and failed spectacularly in any objective sense

I find it bizarre how anybody would want to copy Sweden rather than Norway, Denmark or Finland

It'd be like a county team looking for a blueprint for how to achieve inter-county success, and deciding to copy Derry rather than Tyrone or Donegal

[imtommygunn]

To a point I agree with you tbh. I think they need to start looking at specifics of lockdown measures.

However for the minute in the north it is out of control. Growing at 250% in 2-2.5 weeks could lead to catastrophe and lots of it. Something needs to be done. One thing about consequences of lockdown is that while there is no doubt there are very negative implications they aren't really quantifiable while with the cases here you imagine nothing done equals steady rate of growth(the argument could be made for exponential too) or worse so it's quantifiable.

If I were in Wales and the rates it were at I'd be more peeved about the lockdown than here. It is pretty much out of control for a place this small to have the numbers it does.

I am not sold on the pubs shutting assuming the owners are doing the right things but schools and universities IMO have done a lot here and they need to be asking questions on them.

[Angelo]

On what basis is it quite likely right?

The thing about March and April is an outlier an anomaly. Spain have had nearly 3 times the no of positive cases in the past 2 months than they had back in March and April and the fatality rate per cases has fallen in double digit multiples - why is that? Surely that deserves to be highlighted and examined and the current data should be the one guiding our decisions rather than anomalies 6/7 months ago.

The mood around the vaccine. That's a mood - nothing is concrete but I'll put it to you this way. A vaccine comes out next year - I have two options:

a) Take a vaccine rushed through production stage, with very limited test results and no basis of potential side effects
b) Take my chances with a virus that probably presents nothing more that mild symptoms for 99.5% of my demograph

More testing.

Not up north. We are only doing 4-5k tests a day and returning circa 20% positive rates.

If you were to convert the fatality rates as accurate now and consider them consistent with the no of cases in the first wave it would mean that rather than 6,229 positive cases by the end of July we would actually would have had 150k people infected.

That's close to 10% of the population.

More testing is definitely part of the reason. In April we were testing under 1000 a day. It's not the only factor, There are other factors like improved treatment, lower age group of infected who are able to fight it better, lag in death rates compared to todays infection rates etc. But increased testing is definitely part of the reason we have higher case to death ratio. And yes I do believe there's been more infected in NI that was believed initially.

Testing numbers in the north are an order of magnitude greater than in the early days of the pandemic. Angelo does not seem to have factored this into his thesis about falling mortality rates.


A 20% positive test return rate and 4-5000 tests a day are also not accurate. Not the first time his figures have been off on this thread.


For anyone still in doubt, this is not a person that wants to have this discussion in good faith. His numbers are, and have been, routinely exaggerated, misinterpreted, or distorted to suit a narrative.

Around 20% positive rates have been the avg in the past few weeks and it has been steadily in and around that figure.

Fatality rates have dropped by double digit multiples in between the two waves, from 7% to 0.29%.

They are facts based on the data available.

In likelihood both the fatality rate figures are both much likely lower as the testing system does not catch all positive cases.

So you're only strengthening my case.

[Angelo]

To a point I agree with you tbh. I think they need to start looking at specifics of lockdown measures.

However for the minute in the north it is out of control. Growing at 250% in 2-2.5 weeks could lead to catastrophe and lots of it. Something needs to be done. One thing about consequences of lockdown is that while there is no doubt there are very negative implications they aren't really quantifiable while with the cases here you imagine nothing done equals steady rate of growth(the argument could be made for exponential too) or worse so it's quantifiable.

If I were in Wales and the rates it were at I'd be more peeved about the lockdown than here. It is pretty much out of control for a place this small to have the numbers it does.

I am not sold on the pubs shutting assuming the owners are doing the right things but schools and universities IMO have done a lot here and they need to be asking questions on them.

It looks as though the virus has stagnated now, we are having fairly similar daily numbers for the past fortnight.