Middle East landscape rapidly changing

Started by give her dixie, January 25, 2011, 02:05:36 PM

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Hound

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
Seems awful convenient to me that Iran has shot down a passenger plane just days after becoming the focus of the world once more lads....
FFS!!

The Iranians were on high alert in case the yanks were going to retaliate for the bombing of the airbase in Iraq which had just happened. Someone fooked up and fired at the airplane. It was an accident. The Iranians ballsed up. They're not the first country to accidentally take out a passenger plane and even the yanks aren't going hard on them for the mistake as they've had countless 'friendly fire' incidents.

The Ukranians are rightly annoyed, losing 11 people and a plane, and presumably the Iranians will give them a bundle of cash in compo. The rest of the passengers were pretty much all Iranian born (although half of them had dual nationality), so I don't think the rest of the world will get too hung up about it, like the 50+ who got stampeded to death

Milltown Row2

Quote from: Main Street on January 10, 2020, 10:21:22 AM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on January 10, 2020, 08:57:42 AM
Quote from: Main Street on January 09, 2020, 08:08:09 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on January 09, 2020, 06:07:03 PM
As much as it looks like foul play in relation to the crash, but are these things not really accurate?
Foul play is not suspected, if it were a missile then something went awry.

Boris Johnson has said that Iran shot down the Ukrainian passenger plane in Tehran after Western intelligence agencies concluded that the downing of the jet was most likely an accident.

US satellites reportedly picked up two surface-to-air missiles being launched shortly before the accident and US officials suspect there are missile fragments near the crash site where all 176 passenger died.

Mr Johnson said: "There is now a body of information that the flight was shot down by an Iranian Surface to Air Missile. This may well have been unintentional."

When I said foul play, I meant it may not have been engine failure
That's fair enough  but what's with the Johnson obsession?

No obsession, just a quote he'd used.

Another military source had said they missed their 'targets' on purpose as to not get a return from the States, keeping their locals happy
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: Hound on January 10, 2020, 10:45:02 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
Seems awful convenient to me that Iran has shot down a passenger plane just days after becoming the focus of the world once more lads....
FFS!!

The Iranians were on high alert in case the yanks were going to retaliate for the bombing of the airbase in Iraq which had just happened. Someone fooked up and fired at the airplane. It was an accident. The Iranians ballsed up. They're not the first country to accidentally take out a passenger plane and even the yanks aren't going hard on them for the mistake as they've had countless 'friendly fire' incidents.

The Ukranians are rightly annoyed, losing 11 people and a plane, and presumably the Iranians will give them a bundle of cash in compo. The rest of the passengers were pretty much all Iranian born (although half of them had dual nationality), so I don't think the rest of the world will get too hung up about it, like the 50+ who got stampeded to death

I'm not crying conspiracy, but I am saying it's a bit iffy that the West has quickly rushed to say the Iranians are 100% definitely to blame for this. Offered no evidence and Iran has today actually asked them to provide evidence which is interesting.

These missiles don't just fire by malfunction, in a world of cyber attacks and the likes these things surely are harder to fire than simply hitting the wrong button on the xbox remote. On balance, yes your reasoning is more likely than my own but what better way to discredit the Iranians (moreso) to the world, it'll be interesting to see what the Americans present as evidence.

Hound

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 01:49:05 PM
Quote from: Hound on January 10, 2020, 10:45:02 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
Seems awful convenient to me that Iran has shot down a passenger plane just days after becoming the focus of the world once more lads....
FFS!!

The Iranians were on high alert in case the yanks were going to retaliate for the bombing of the airbase in Iraq which had just happened. Someone fooked up and fired at the airplane. It was an accident. The Iranians ballsed up. They're not the first country to accidentally take out a passenger plane and even the yanks aren't going hard on them for the mistake as they've had countless 'friendly fire' incidents.

The Ukranians are rightly annoyed, losing 11 people and a plane, and presumably the Iranians will give them a bundle of cash in compo. The rest of the passengers were pretty much all Iranian born (although half of them had dual nationality), so I don't think the rest of the world will get too hung up about it, like the 50+ who got stampeded to death

I'm not crying conspiracy, but I am saying it's a bit iffy that the West has quickly rushed to say the Iranians are 100% definitely to blame for this. Offered no evidence and Iran has today actually asked them to provide evidence which is interesting.

These missiles don't just fire by malfunction, in a world of cyber attacks and the likes these things surely are harder to fire than simply hitting the wrong button on the xbox remote. On balance, yes your reasoning is more likely than my own but what better way to discredit the Iranians (moreso) to the world, it'll be interesting to see what the Americans present as evidence.
It's 9 or 10 months since the last airline incident involving the death of 100+ people.

This incident happened on the same day Iran were firing rockets into Iraq. This incident happened in Iran.
Of all the days in the calendar and of all the places in the world for an accident to happen...

There is and can only be one reason this plane fell from the sky. Iranian defensive measures.

And yes anti-aircraft defence by its nature has to be ready to go. It may have been an equipment malfunction, but I would say far more likely it was human error. Some Iranian made a big mistake and took out the wrong target. 

Eamonnca1

Quote from: Hound on January 10, 2020, 10:45:02 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
Seems awful convenient to me that Iran has shot down a passenger plane just days after becoming the focus of the world once more lads....
FFS!!

The Iranians were on high alert in case the yanks were going to retaliate for the bombing of the airbase in Iraq which had just happened. Someone fooked up and fired at the airplane. It was an accident. The Iranians ballsed up. They're not the first country to accidentally take out a passenger plane and even the yanks aren't going hard on them for the mistake as they've had countless 'friendly fire' incidents.

The Ukranians are rightly annoyed, losing 11 people and a plane, and presumably the Iranians will give them a bundle of cash in compo. The rest of the passengers were pretty much all Iranian born (although half of them had dual nationality), so I don't think the rest of the world will get too hung up about it, like the 50+ who got stampeded to death

Spot on. It reminds me of the shooting down of an Iranian Airbus in 1988.

JPGJOHNNYG

So it WAS Iran so that can put a stop to all the bullshit  conspiracy theories. Who would have thought planes flying near an airport! Somebodies head will literally roll over this

Hound

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on January 11, 2020, 08:27:12 AM
So it WAS Iran so that can put a stop to all the bullshit  conspiracy theories. Who would have thought planes flying near an airport! Somebodies head will literally roll over this
When the Iranian president himself calls it an "unforgivable mistake", you know you're going to be getting it in the neck!

It's been some shitshow from the Iranians between allowing 50+ mourners to be stampeded to death and now taking out 150+ Iranian born passengers on the airplane. Hopefully that's the end of it.

Kidder81

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 01:49:05 PM
Quote from: Hound on January 10, 2020, 10:45:02 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
Seems awful convenient to me that Iran has shot down a passenger plane just days after becoming the focus of the world once more lads....
FFS!!

The Iranians were on high alert in case the yanks were going to retaliate for the bombing of the airbase in Iraq which had just happened. Someone fooked up and fired at the airplane. It was an accident. The Iranians ballsed up. They're not the first country to accidentally take out a passenger plane and even the yanks aren't going hard on them for the mistake as they've had countless 'friendly fire' incidents.

The Ukranians are rightly annoyed, losing 11 people and a plane, and presumably the Iranians will give them a bundle of cash in compo. The rest of the passengers were pretty much all Iranian born (although half of them had dual nationality), so I don't think the rest of the world will get too hung up about it, like the 50+ who got stampeded to death

I'm not crying conspiracy, but I am saying it's a bit iffy that the West has quickly rushed to say the Iranians are 100% definitely to blame for this. Offered no evidence and Iran has today actually asked them to provide evidence which is interesting.

These missiles don't just fire by malfunction, in a world of cyber attacks and the likes these things surely are harder to fire than simply hitting the wrong button on the xbox remote. On balance, yes your reasoning is more likely than my own but what better way to discredit the Iranians (moreso) to the world, it'll be interesting to see what the Americans present as evidence.

Iran 100% to blame, their words

Kidder81

Quote from: Main Street on January 09, 2020, 01:52:19 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on January 08, 2020, 04:39:05 PM
Quote from: Hound on January 08, 2020, 02:54:18 PM
Quote from: Taylor on January 08, 2020, 12:47:24 PM
Quote from: Keyser soze on January 08, 2020, 12:24:13 PM
Quote from: Taylor on January 08, 2020, 11:49:50 AM
Quote from: Hound on January 08, 2020, 11:22:16 AM
A Boeing plane crashes shortly after leaving Tehran en route to Ukraine, killing all 170+ onboard.

Is that just an extraordinary awful coincidence?

And Iran wont hand over the black box.

Definitely coincidence  :-\

Hand it over to?

Boeing
I think most countries would not trust Boeing to perform an independent assessment of why their own plane went down. An aviation authority should be doing the investigation, albeit allowing Boeing access to all the information, but not control of it.

For the Ethiopian Airlines crash, Boeing offered to do the investigation with the aid of US aviation authorities. The Ethiopians instead asked the French to lead the investigation.

Of course, the Iranians carrying out the investigation by themselves would not be satisfactory.

From reading accounts, the engine caught fire suddenly and the pilots did not radio/signal any emergencies. There could be a myriad of different reasons for the crash. My money would be on a rocket, accidentally fired by the Iranians. It would be some coincidence that a mechanical accident happened on this night of all nights (especially with no emergency broadcasts) and it doesn't make any sense that anyone would have taken this "target" out on purpose.

Allegedly the missile batteries that were firing on the US bases are near Tehran Airport.

Looking like that plane was in the flight path of a missile...
Looks like we will have to wait for the investigation to determine the cause of the crash.

Justin Bronk debunks the misslie theory. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1215226280943157249.html
no evidence to support the missile theory -  no missile plume and such a missile to do that damage would have to be quite a size.

Quite a debunking  :(

Main Street

Quote from: Kidder81 on January 11, 2020, 11:37:59 AM
Quote from: Main Street on January 09, 2020, 01:52:19 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on January 08, 2020, 04:39:05 PM
Quote from: Hound on January 08, 2020, 02:54:18 PM
Quote from: Taylor on January 08, 2020, 12:47:24 PM
Quote from: Keyser soze on January 08, 2020, 12:24:13 PM
Quote from: Taylor on January 08, 2020, 11:49:50 AM
Quote from: Hound on January 08, 2020, 11:22:16 AM
A Boeing plane crashes shortly after leaving Tehran en route to Ukraine, killing all 170+ onboard.

Is that just an extraordinary awful coincidence?

And Iran wont hand over the black box.

Definitely coincidence  :-\

Hand it over to?

Boeing
I think most countries would not trust Boeing to perform an independent assessment of why their own plane went down. An aviation authority should be doing the investigation, albeit allowing Boeing access to all the information, but not control of it.

For the Ethiopian Airlines crash, Boeing offered to do the investigation with the aid of US aviation authorities. The Ethiopians instead asked the French to lead the investigation.

Of course, the Iranians carrying out the investigation by themselves would not be satisfactory.

From reading accounts, the engine caught fire suddenly and the pilots did not radio/signal any emergencies. There could be a myriad of different reasons for the crash. My money would be on a rocket, accidentally fired by the Iranians. It would be some coincidence that a mechanical accident happened on this night of all nights (especially with no emergency broadcasts) and it doesn't make any sense that anyone would have taken this "target" out on purpose.

Allegedly the missile batteries that were firing on the US bases are near Tehran Airport.

Looking like that plane was in the flight path of a missile...
Looks like we will have to wait for the investigation to determine the cause of the crash.

Justin Bronk debunks the misslie theory. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1215226280943157249.html
no evidence to support the missile theory -  no missile plume and such a missile to do that damage would have to be quite a size.

Quite a debunking  :(
Don't mock, 1t was a good debunking of the missile theory  according of the available evidence at that time.
And there was the small print at the end,  "None of which is intended to say that a SAM fired in error is impossible; maybe it was somehow. However, I would suggest it's enough to assume an accident on board until air crash investigators get a good look at the wreckage and decide otherwise.  :)

Hound

You'd have to be extremely gullible to believe that. Given airplane accidents causing massive death are so rare, and a plane goes down not only on the same day Iran are firing missiles, but in the same country!!

Tony Baloney

Quote from: Hound on January 12, 2020, 09:09:07 AM
You'd have to be extremely gullible to believe that. Given airplane accidents causing massive death are so rare, and a plane goes down not only on the same day Iran are firing missiles, but in the same country!!
In flames, shortly after take off. An aviation accident expert said, before it was confirmed as shot down, that if it wasn't shot down it would be an accident unique in commercial aviation history. Therefore, the odds of an accident on the same day, same country and within the same timeframe as the missile attacks....

Main Street

Quote from: Hound on January 12, 2020, 09:09:07 AM
You'd have to be extremely gullible to believe that. Given airplane accidents causing massive death are so rare, and a plane goes down not only on the same day Iran are firing missiles, but in the same country!!
Exteremely gullible me hole.
Who said I believed it wasn't a missile?  Justin Bronk said there wasn't enough available evidence to support the validity of missile theory  and to wait until experts  examined the scene to determine whether it was a missile or not
Did you even read what he wrote?
It was later that day that more radar detection evidence was revealed. Real evidence not suppositions.
But yes I do believe it prudent to be cautious in hysterical times and wait for the real evidence rather that rely on suppositions.


Hound

Quote from: Main Street on January 12, 2020, 07:41:51 PM
Quote from: Hound on January 12, 2020, 09:09:07 AM
You'd have to be extremely gullible to believe that. Given airplane accidents causing massive death are so rare, and a plane goes down not only on the same day Iran are firing missiles, but in the same country!!
Exteremely gullible me hole.
Who said I believed it wasn't a missile?  Justin Bronk said there wasn't enough available evidence to support the validity of missile theory  and to wait until experts  examined the scene to determine whether it was a missile or not
Did you even read what he wrote?
It was later that day that more radar detection evidence was revealed. Real evidence not suppositions.
But yes I do believe it prudent to be cautious in hysterical times and wait for the real evidence rather that rely on suppositions.
You don't have to wait for evidence when there's only one possible explanation. The evidence was inevitable. And so it proved.

Oh yes, there was that 0.0000000001% chance that an unprecedented accident happened on the same day and in the same place as Iran were firing missiles!!!!


GetOverTheBar

Quote from: Kidder81 on January 11, 2020, 11:36:49 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 01:49:05 PM
Quote from: Hound on January 10, 2020, 10:45:02 AM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on January 10, 2020, 10:05:10 AM
Seems awful convenient to me that Iran has shot down a passenger plane just days after becoming the focus of the world once more lads....
FFS!!

The Iranians were on high alert in case the yanks were going to retaliate for the bombing of the airbase in Iraq which had just happened. Someone fooked up and fired at the airplane. It was an accident. The Iranians ballsed up. They're not the first country to accidentally take out a passenger plane and even the yanks aren't going hard on them for the mistake as they've had countless 'friendly fire' incidents.

The Ukranians are rightly annoyed, losing 11 people and a plane, and presumably the Iranians will give them a bundle of cash in compo. The rest of the passengers were pretty much all Iranian born (although half of them had dual nationality), so I don't think the rest of the world will get too hung up about it, like the 50+ who got stampeded to death

I'm not crying conspiracy, but I am saying it's a bit iffy that the West has quickly rushed to say the Iranians are 100% definitely to blame for this. Offered no evidence and Iran has today actually asked them to provide evidence which is interesting.

These missiles don't just fire by malfunction, in a world of cyber attacks and the likes these things surely are harder to fire than simply hitting the wrong button on the xbox remote. On balance, yes your reasoning is more likely than my own but what better way to discredit the Iranians (moreso) to the world, it'll be interesting to see what the Americans present as evidence.

Iran 100% to blame, their words

Swing and a miss!