China Coronavirus

[Ed Ricketts]

Studies in Spain and France the last couple of days suggesting only around 5% of the population have been exposed to the virus. Further waves seem inevitable if the bulk of the population is still fertile ground for infection. These new antibody tests by Roche will first be put to work clarifying this picture.

I haven't studied a science book for 24hrs, and know less than Karen has forgotten, but how is the bit in bold even possible? 5%?

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517?rss=1

Should take less than 24hrs to read. They're modelling using the data that's available, so of course it won't be a completely accurate picture. Studies using the reliable antibody tests should be able to paint a more accurate picture.

This seems like bigger news than Roche's antibody test, though. If these findings are even close to reality then multiple subsequent waves of infections are inevitable. And further lockdowns are inevitable. And further massive death tallies are inevitable. There's a notion at large that we're coming through the other side of this thing, when a lot of the evidence suggests that we're only staggering back to the corner after round 1.

[trailer]

Studies in Spain and France the last couple of days suggesting only around 5% of the population have been exposed to the virus. Further waves seem inevitable if the bulk of the population is still fertile ground for infection. These new antibody tests by Roche will first be put to work clarifying this picture.

I haven't studied a science book for 24hrs, and know less than Karen has forgotten, but how is the bit in bold even possible? 5%?

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517?rss=1

Should take less than 24hrs to read. They're modelling using the data that's available, so of course it won't be a completely accurate picture. Studies using the reliable antibody tests should be able to paint a more accurate picture.

This seems like bigger news than Roche's antibody test, though. If these findings are even close to reality then multiple subsequent waves of infections are inevitable. And further lockdowns are inevitable. And further massive death tallies are inevitable. There's a notion at large that we're coming through the other side of this thing, when a lot of the evidence suggests that we're only staggering back to the corner after round 1.

Nothing is inevitable if the arsehole scientists and medical advisers would actually try and look to learn from successful nations.

[armaghniac]

Studies in Spain and France the last couple of days suggesting only around 5% of the population have been exposed to the virus. Further waves seem inevitable if the bulk of the population is still fertile ground for infection. These new antibody tests by Roche will first be put to work clarifying this picture.

And 1% died in Spain on these figures. Now the proportion of health care staff infected is probably a bit higher than the population, but herd immunity was always bollix.

This virus has not gone away, despite some who seem to think it should go away because it is inconvenient.
The way forward is to attend to the detail, never a popular thing to explain to chattering classes.

[mackers]

If these findings are even close to reality then multiple subsequent waves of infections are inevitable. And further lockdowns are inevitable. And further massive death tallies are inevitable. There's a notion at large that we're coming through the other side of this thing, when a lot of the evidence suggests that we're only staggering back to the corner after round 1.

Inevitable ....really? What do you base this throw away line on? I'm not for one second saying that it definitely won't happen but this sort of nonsense messes with my head! It seems as if people take pleasure in pronouncing doomsday scenarios.  Go easy.......we have a thread on this message board dealing with mental health.  This sort of stuff floating about the internet is not without implications you know.

[johnnycool]

Studies in Spain and France the last couple of days suggesting only around 5% of the population have been exposed to the virus. Further waves seem inevitable if the bulk of the population is still fertile ground for infection. These new antibody tests by Roche will first be put to work clarifying this picture.

I haven't studied a science book for 24hrs, and know less than Karen has forgotten, but how is the bit in bold even possible? 5%?

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517?rss=1

Should take less than 24hrs to read. They're modelling using the data that's available, so of course it won't be a completely accurate picture. Studies using the reliable antibody tests should be able to paint a more accurate picture.

This seems like bigger news than Roche's antibody test, though. If these findings are even close to reality then multiple subsequent waves of infections are inevitable. And further lockdowns are inevitable. And further massive death tallies are inevitable. There's a notion at large that we're coming through the other side of this thing, when a lot of the evidence suggests that we're only staggering back to the corner after round 1.

One of the UK science/medical bods predicted a similar figure for the UK in terms of who's already had CV-19 and considering that they were initially looking for at least 60% of the population to contract it for herd immunity to take hold (which is being questioned by other science/medical bods) then getting away with 60K deaths in the first wave is a Boris like success alright.

now that they can tell whose got the antibodies, I suppose the next set of tests is to see if people with the antibodies are now immune from another bout.

Cross fingers that they are, but with only 5% having it already we will definitely get more than one wave of this thing!

[armaghniac]

Inevitable ....really? What do you base this throw away line on? I'm not for one second saying that it definitely won't happen but this sort of nonsense messes with my head! It seems as if people take pleasure in pronouncing doomsday scenarios.  Go easy.......we have a thread on this message board dealing with mental health.  This sort of stuff floating about the internet is not without implications you know.

These scenarios are not inevitable but will result unless action is taken to prevent them. So the solution is to take these actions, the problem is the loonies on social media who use the success of measures as a reason not to have measures.

[Ed Ricketts]

If these findings are even close to reality then multiple subsequent waves of infections are inevitable. And further lockdowns are inevitable. And further massive death tallies are inevitable. There's a notion at large that we're coming through the other side of this thing, when a lot of the evidence suggests that we're only staggering back to the corner after round 1.

Inevitable ....really? What do you base this throw away line on? I'm not for one second saying that it definitely won't happen but this sort of nonsense messes with my head! It seems as if people take pleasure in pronouncing doomsday scenarios.  Go easy.......we have a thread on this message board dealing with mental health.  This sort of stuff floating about the internet is not without implications you know.

Firstly, I'll spare you the life story, but you'll have to trust me when I say that I take no pleasure from a vision of the world where this virus exists.

Secondly, if negative information about this, or any other issue, causes you anxiety then the solution is to avoid the discussion. Unfortunately, there is very little reason for real positivity while the virus remains rampant across the planet. The development of the reliable antibody test is a positive news story, though.

Lastly, the inevitability of further infections, lockdowns, and deaths is a logical conclusion from the findings of these studies. c. 95% of the population remains an open goal once the thing is allowed to spread again. And spread it will as societies open up, just as it spread before they closed down.

It's important that information like this gets out to the public and is understood. This is the only way that there will be compliance with necessary future measures. As stated previously, the mood out there seems to be that the worst has passed and everything is on the up. But more people need to understand that this is a long haul effort, dispiriting as that may be.

[GetOverTheBar]

If these findings are even close to reality then multiple subsequent waves of infections are inevitable. And further lockdowns are inevitable. And further massive death tallies are inevitable. There's a notion at large that we're coming through the other side of this thing, when a lot of the evidence suggests that we're only staggering back to the corner after round 1.

Inevitable ....really? What do you base this throw away line on? I'm not for one second saying that it definitely won't happen but this sort of nonsense messes with my head! It seems as if people take pleasure in pronouncing doomsday scenarios.  Go easy.......we have a thread on this message board dealing with mental health.  This sort of stuff floating about the internet is not without implications you know.

Firstly, I'll spare you the life story, but you'll have to trust me when I say that I take no pleasure from a vision of the world where this virus exists.

Secondly, if negative information about this, or any other issue, causes you anxiety then the solution is to avoid the discussion. Unfortunately, there is very little reason for real positivity while the virus remains rampant across the planet. The development of the reliable antibody test is a positive news story, though.

Lastly, the inevitability of further infections, lockdowns, and deaths is a logical conclusion from the findings of these studies. c. 95% of the population remains an open goal once the thing is allowed to spread again. And spread it will as societies open up, just as it spread before they closed down.

It's important that information like this gets out to the public and is understood. This is the only way that there will be compliance with necessary future measures. As stated previously, the mood out there seems to be that the worst has passed and everything is on the up. But more people need to understand that this is a long haul effort, dispiriting as that may be.

Have you a link to these studies?

[Ed Ricketts]

If these findings are even close to reality then multiple subsequent waves of infections are inevitable. And further lockdowns are inevitable. And further massive death tallies are inevitable. There's a notion at large that we're coming through the other side of this thing, when a lot of the evidence suggests that we're only staggering back to the corner after round 1.

Inevitable ....really? What do you base this throw away line on? I'm not for one second saying that it definitely won't happen but this sort of nonsense messes with my head! It seems as if people take pleasure in pronouncing doomsday scenarios.  Go easy.......we have a thread on this message board dealing with mental health.  This sort of stuff floating about the internet is not without implications you know.

Firstly, I'll spare you the life story, but you'll have to trust me when I say that I take no pleasure from a vision of the world where this virus exists.

Secondly, if negative information about this, or any other issue, causes you anxiety then the solution is to avoid the discussion. Unfortunately, there is very little reason for real positivity while the virus remains rampant across the planet. The development of the reliable antibody test is a positive news story, though.

Lastly, the inevitability of further infections, lockdowns, and deaths is a logical conclusion from the findings of these studies. c. 95% of the population remains an open goal once the thing is allowed to spread again. And spread it will as societies open up, just as it spread before they closed down.

It's important that information like this gets out to the public and is understood. This is the only way that there will be compliance with necessary future measures. As stated previously, the mood out there seems to be that the worst has passed and everything is on the up. But more people need to understand that this is a long haul effort, dispiriting as that may be.

Have you a link to these studies?

See above.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Have you a link to these studies?

He posted one in post #5051.

Hopefully the govt get off their hole, order the tests*, and then start doing sampling. Then we might start to get an idea of just where we sit.

Then with that info, can start to establish whether it gives immunity and/or prevents passing it on.

Assuming anti-bodies does mean immunity and does mean you can't pass it on - then, they need to figure out whether its possible to build an immune carer buffer between the vulnerable and the less vulnerable - which would mean lockdown could be eased (not lifted) for many individuals <40 years old. Those over, say, 70 (or with health conditions) could cocoon, with all interactions limited to carers already with antibodies and therefore incapable of passing it on. So carers and would be carers would be tested as a matter of urgency.


*bickering over the price at the moment I believe. If the information led to a partial reopening of the economy even one day earlier, then even hundreds of millions paid above the price they might have negotiated down to would be extremely cheap. Penny wise, pound foolish.

[Milltown Row2]

Have you a link to these studies?

He posted one in post #5051.

Hopefully the govt get off their hole, order the tests*, and then start doing sampling


*bickering over the price at the moment I believe. If the information led to a partial reopening of the economy even one day earlier, then even hundreds of millions paid above the price they might have negotiated down to would be extremely cheap. Penny wise, pound foolish.

If the government had a state run centre for testing vaccines and the rest required to combat such things then it wouldn't have to worry about paying for it!

[mackers]

Firstly, I'll spare you the life story, but you'll have to trust me when I say that I take no pleasure from a vision of the world where this virus exists.

Secondly, if negative information about this, or any other issue, causes you anxiety then the solution is to avoid the discussion. Unfortunately, there is very little reason for real positivity while the virus remains rampant across the planet. The development of the reliable antibody test is a positive news story, though.

Lastly, the inevitability of further infections, lockdowns, and deaths is a logical conclusion from the findings of these studies. c. 95% of the population remains an open goal once the thing is allowed to spread again. And spread it will as societies open up, just as it spread before they closed down.

It's important that information like this gets out to the public and is understood. This is the only way that there will be compliance with necessary future measures. As stated previously, the mood out there seems to be that the worst has passed and everything is on the up. But more people need to understand that this is a long haul effort, dispiriting as that may be.

I think everyone is aware of the dangerous world we live in now but I'd encourage people (not just you) to use a more measured approach in some of the terminology that's being used.  I feel that there's no inevitability involved in any of this (that's true to say about cures/vaccines also).  It's a rapidly changing situation.

[RadioGAAGAA]

*bickering over the price at the moment I believe. If the information led to a partial reopening of the economy even one day earlier, then even hundreds of millions paid above the price they might have negotiated down to would be extremely cheap. Penny wise, pound foolish.

If the government had a state run centre for testing vaccines and the rest required to combat such things then it wouldn't have to worry about paying for it!

Ah, not quite - they'll have many of the machines already for other Roche tests - but they still need to buy the tests themselves off Roche.

If they had their own R&D centres, then they'd need to have been the ones discovering the right mix for the test.

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

some who have been on the covid payment, got part time work driving/cleaning/stocking etc, they wont go back to work until it runs out and will make the most of this while it lasts to prepare for the obvious downturn coming after

If they've taken part time work does that not exclude them from furloughed payment ?

Nearly sure I read that you cannot perform any paid work for your employer if furloughed (only training) but you can seek employment elsewehere if your current work contract allows (possibly to make up the missing 20%).

So if you were paid £400 per week you are looking for a part time job to pay you £80??

some pizza delivery drivers making 80 euro a night, cash in hand. hard to give that up while getting 350 covid payment as well. they'll wait til the payment is stopped.

[Cunny Funt]

For the ROI