Brexit.

[Ball Hopper]

If we, the world, can learn one thing from Brexit is that 52% of the vote is not actually enough to force through a constitutional change.

So what should have happened?  Negotiate the deal first, then put the deal on the referendum with a simple choice...a) take the deal b) reject the deal means stay in EU?  Sounds somewhat reasonable.

Maybe the EU should change their rules to this for any potential exiteers...of course the EU might never agree to a deal to allow a nation to vote on, so the whole mess could take years.

[seafoid]

Peter Oborne on the  border

https://mobile.twitter.com/sharonodea/status/1169340309702172672

[JPGJOHNNYG]

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/09/04/clare-bailey-writes-to-other-leaders-seeking-a-pro-remain-pact/

As I predicted the other day Greens interested in a pact but it will almost certainly be rejected by alliance

[armaghniac]

My theory. Boris has no majority anymore and wants an election, preferably with Brexit sorted. DUP now no use to him. Surely the sensible thing is go for NI only backstop put that through parliament then when he's done that and can leave with a deal by 31 October, go for election

Boris wants no deal full stop.

Not really. Boris wants to be PM by the most convenient route possible. He'd cancel Brexit and sack his whole cabinet and make Ken Clarke, Hammond, Stewart etc ministers if he thought that would do the trick.

[Eamonnca1]

Breaking news****Boris won a vote in he Commons***

......Except it didnt matter

Was this a major miscalculation by Downing St? I really think they were sure that Corbyn would bite their hand off for an election. Looks like they are using up all their subs rather quickly. Gotta wonder what their next move is? seems like yer man Cummings is a wee bit too smart for is own good

Fair play to Corbyn he resisted and appears to be getting somewhere at last with this cross party cooperation

I cant figure out what is the end goal for any PM. If the  no deal bill is passed it means the uk cant leave without a deal so only option is for the already rejected eu offer. If Corbyn gets elected nothing changes. So it's set that the uk has go leave the eu with a bad deal?

The outcome as I see it (and hope for) is a new government led by someone other than a Tory, who puts to the people a second referendum where they choose between the Withdrawal Agreement as agreed with May, or remaining in the EU. Remain wins, Article 50 is revoked, Brexit case is closed, and it's back to business as usual. Anything else is just chaos without end.

[Eamonnca1]

I cant figure out what is the end goal for any PM. If the  no deal bill is passed it means the uk cant leave without a deal so only option is for the already rejected eu offer. If Corbyn gets elected nothing changes. So it's set that the uk has go leave the eu with a bad deal?

The current deal (Theresa's deal) is the only logical end point for the EU given all their existing treaties and Theresa's limitations on the scope of the negotiations due to her "red-lines".

However, if Jeremy Corbyn were to get in and restart the whole negotiation - removing Theresa's "red-lines" at the very start* - then there is much more freedom (and no doubt, willingness) for the EU to negotiate a more favourable outcome for both sides.

*which he has often talked about. He wants to go back to the days of the EC and the common market.

That's a big If. Couldn't see it, myself.

[armaghniac]

I cant figure out what is the end goal for any PM. If the  no deal bill is passed it means the uk cant leave without a deal so only option is for the already rejected eu offer. If Corbyn gets elected nothing changes. So it's set that the uk has go leave the eu with a bad deal?

The current deal (Theresa's deal) is the only logical end point for the EU given all their existing treaties and Theresa's limitations on the scope of the negotiations due to her "red-lines".

However, if Jeremy Corbyn were to get in and restart the whole negotiation - removing Theresa's "red-lines" at the very start* - then there is much more freedom (and no doubt, willingness) for the EU to negotiate a more favourable outcome for both sides.

*which he has often talked about. He wants to go back to the days of the EC and the common market.

That's a big If. Couldn't see it, myself.

If the Withdrawal agreement is accepted, maybe with a few small tweaks, then you are into a transition period. This could be extended to 3 years and the eventual agreement need not reflect all of the red lines. In particular, the immigration was always a red herring as the period of large scale E. European emigration is over regardless.

[omaghjoe]

My theory. Boris has no majority anymore and wants an election, preferably with Brexit sorted. DUP now no use to him. Surely the sensible thing is go for NI only backstop put that through parliament then when he's done that and can leave with a deal by 31 October, go for election

Boris wants no deal full stop.

Not really. Boris wants to be PM by the most convenient route possible. He'd cancel Brexit and sack his whole cabinet and make Ken Clarke, Hammond, Stewart etc ministers if he thought that would do the trick.

Funny cos true...he'd go into coalition with the snp and DUP at the same time I'd he could get away with it

[omaghjoe]

I cant figure out what is the end goal for any PM. If the  no deal bill is passed it means the uk cant leave without a deal so only option is for the already rejected eu offer. If Corbyn gets elected nothing changes. So it's set that the uk has go leave the eu with a bad deal?

The current deal (Theresa's deal) is the only logical end point for the EU given all their existing treaties and Theresa's limitations on the scope of the negotiations due to her "red-lines".

However, if Jeremy Corbyn were to get in and restart the whole negotiation - removing Theresa's "red-lines" at the very start* - then there is much more freedom (and no doubt, willingness) for the EU to negotiate a more favourable outcome for both sides.

*which he has often talked about. He wants to go back to the days of the EC and the common market.

That's a big If. Couldn't see it, myself.

If the Withdrawal agreement is accepted, maybe with a few small tweaks, then you are into a transition period. This could be extended to 3 years and the eventual agreement need not reflect all of the red lines. In particular, the immigration was always a red herring as the period of large scale E. European emigration is over regardless.

The only way I could see Corbyn being PM is with a Lib Dem SNP pact and coalition and even that is a struggle with the Brexit electorate fired up after being denied Brexit... (tho stranger things have happened).  Anyway hed be looking at a 2nd referendum to make that government happen....

[Eamonnca1]

Saw something earlier that according to Labours internal polling they are pretty sure they wouldnt win a GE at the minute

The strength of the SNP is probably why. Since the SNP are staunch remainers I'd say a second EU referendum would be a condition for any coalition with them.

[Eamonnca1]

If the Withdrawal agreement is accepted, maybe with a few small tweaks, then you are into a transition period. This could be extended to 3 years and the eventual agreement need not reflect all of the red lines. In particular, the immigration was always a red herring as the period of large scale E. European emigration is over regardless.

Of course it was. Last time I looked into it, the UK was getting half of its immigration from outside the EU, and a lot of that was from Commonwealth and former empire territories.

[Farrandeelin]

If we, the world, can learn one thing from Brexit is that 52% of the vote is not actually enough to force through a constitutional change.

That's because the UK hasn't got an actual written constitution.

[Eamonnca1]

If we, the world, can learn one thing from Brexit is that 52% of the vote is not actually enough to force through a constitutional change.

That's because the UK hasn't got an actual written constitution.

If they ever get out of this mess, they might decide it would be a good idea to have one. Sit down and write it, have the people ratify it, and establish who actually runs the bloody place. For big changes like joining or leaving the EU there should be unanimous agreement between each of the 4 parts.

[omaghjoe]

If we, the world, can learn one thing from Brexit is that 52% of the vote is not actually enough to force through a constitutional change.

That's because the UK hasn't got an actual written constitution.

Yeah they've been jabbering on about this non existent constitution for the past year or so...it seems only in the past week that they've realised they dont actually have one

[tyrone08]

If the Withdrawal agreement is accepted, maybe with a few small tweaks, then you are into a transition period. This could be extended to 3 years and the eventual agreement need not reflect all of the red lines. In particular, the immigration was always a red herring as the period of large scale E. European emigration is over regardless.

Of course it was. Last time I looked into it, the UK was getting half of its immigration from outside the EU, and a lot of that was from Commonwealth and former empire territories.

Not sure if that is true as the ONS admitted recently that they have been under reporting the actual number of eu immigrants to the uk for the past 11 years. Also said that they overestimated number of immigrants from non eu countries

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-49420730