China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

Robbie stated we got 80000 on Thursday and the same next Thursday
England only starting to ramp up whilst we go backwards
Was predictable with the clowns running the place

You're all over the place, started with they'll f**k it up, no I'm wrong we are brilliant, to nah they've fucked it up!

Calm down lad, you'll give yourself an aneurysm

[restorepride]

Why does the bbc say there is a predicted surge in coronavirus cases this weekend? I had thought we were post surge. What would cause this surge?

One surge Christmas, other New Year parties - possibly?

[imtommygunn]

Not sure. I just didn't think another surge was expected so was surprised and just wondering if it is a bit sensationalised.

[Milltown Row2]

Not sure. I just didn't think another surge was expected so was surprised and just wondering if it is a bit sensationalised.

Three weeks since new year, possible sensationalism but what's the hospitalised time frame from catching it?

[imtommygunn]

I thought generally it was two weeks.

[Smurfy123]

The south have totally lost it in nursing homes
Median age of death 85 today
Outbreaks in nursing homes doubling
Concerning
Very concerning
70% of this weeks deaths all in nursing homes

[trailer]

Why does the bbc say there is a predicted surge in coronavirus cases this weekend? I had thought we were post surge. What would cause this surge?

One surge Christmas, other New Year parties - possibly?

The surge is in hospitalisations. Based of infection rates 2-3 weeks ago. An issue with this disease is that people can manage symptoms for days or even weeks then suddenly take really poorly and require hospitalisation.

[imtommygunn]

Ah ok - makes sense.

[Angelo]

The south have totally lost it in nursing homes
Median age of death 85 today
Outbreaks in nursing homes doubling
Concerning
Very concerning
70% of this weeks deaths all in nursing homes

Ah sure they can blame the general public for it......

[Milltown Row2]

The south have totally lost it in nursing homes
Median age of death 85 today
Outbreaks in nursing homes doubling
Concerning
Very concerning
70% of this weeks deaths all in nursing homes

Are you talking to yourself?

[seafoid]

https://www.ft.com/content/1c7266b1-1fad-458e-8585-12dc3164fdce

Another two years of this? If anything, that is optimistic, according to Stephen Tang, chief executive of OraSure Technologies, a rival diagnostics company. "The need to have tests available to continue to test for Covid-19 will last well beyond 2022, certainly in the sophisticated economies," said Mr Tang. "And then for the low- and middle-income countries, perhaps well into 2027 or 2030, unfortunately. But I think that's the state of play for this virus and the world populations."


Perhaps there is more cheer to be found from the vaccine makers, the companies transformed in the public imagination from greedy patent exploiters to the saviours of humankind. The extraordinary achievements of the likes of BioNTech, Pfizer, Moderna, Oxford university and AstraZeneca surely offer a speedy return to normality? Not so fast. "We know that it's changing and whether it's changing a little or a lot, that is something that we're anticipating," said Angela Hwang, a Pfizer executive, pondering the virus's ability to mutate

. "So we may be in a place where we may need a new vaccine."  The current crop, despite their remarkable development speed and efficacy, are vulnerable to being rendered useless. Scientists expect a mutant strain to escape their grip. Pharmaceutical companies are confident they can respond but that requires adapting the vaccines, winning regulatory approval (ideally without another set of full-blown trials) and ramping up manufacturing all over again.  Recommended Coronavirus treatment Vaccine makers prepare for game of Covid cat and mouse In a positive scenario, this becomes as smooth as the annual flu vaccines, or an inoculation for all strains is developed. In a worst case, we are always a step behind the evolving virus.

Even if vaccines can deal with variants, there is a huge selection of the population ineligible for current vaccines, an impediment to herd immunity.

[Milltown Row2]

Loads of speculation in that whole post, let's just wait and see

[RadioGAAGAA]

"So we may be in a place where we may need a new vaccine."  The current crop, despite their remarkable development speed and efficacy, are vulnerable to being rendered useless.

Look - the likelihood of a mutation for vaccine escape is a direct function of the number of mutations, which is itself a direct function of the number of virus in existence, which is of course, dependent on the number of people infected and the number of people they infect etc etc.

That's why the behaviours of the likes of the USA, Brazil and UK have been so utterly irresponsible. The latter two have proved fertile breeding grounds for the virus to the point significant mutations were almost inevitable. The former? Well, their public health organisations have been effectively neutered (until last Wednesday), so there is no idea how many strains have developed in the USA.

The developing world is another problem, the South African health system (and its far from the worst) would never be able to cope - the same is true elsewhere - so it was incumbent on the strong nations of the world to manage their own houses to the point they could help those that couldn't help themselves.


Anyway, point being, when the vaccines start to drive down infection rates, they also drive down the very numbers that would otherwise lead to a more likely vaccine escape.

Its a global problem, and that will - in the end - need a global solution - otherwise the amount of virus reproducing will lead to vaccine escape at some point.

[lenny]

"So we may be in a place where we may need a new vaccine."  The current crop, despite their remarkable development speed and efficacy, are vulnerable to being rendered useless.

Look - the likelihood of a mutation for vaccine escape is a direct function of the number of mutations, which is itself a direct function of the number of virus in existence, which is of course, dependent on the number of people infected and the number of people they infect etc etc.

That's why the behaviours of the likes of the USA, Brazil and UK have been so utterly irresponsible. The latter two have proved fertile breeding grounds for the virus to the point significant mutations were almost inevitable. The former? Well, their public health organisations have been effectively neutered (until last Wednesday), so there is no idea how many strains have developed in the USA.

The developing world is another problem, the South African health system (and its far from the worst) would never be able to cope - the same is true elsewhere - so it was incumbent on the strong nations of the world to manage their own houses to the point they could help those that couldn't help themselves.


Anyway, point being, when the vaccines start to drive down infection rates, they also drive down the very numbers that would otherwise lead to a more likely vaccine escape.

Its a global problem, and that will - in the end - need a global solution - otherwise the amount of virus reproducing will lead to vaccine escape at some point.

A couple of pieces of potential very positive news in the last few days. First a company in America has a designed a way to produce a vaccine in a pill. It has to go through the usual human trials but initial results were very good. That would be a total game changer in terms of getting a population vaccinated. It'll be towards the end of 2021 before it would be in general use if all goes well. Today I read of a nasal spray which is 99.9% effective in stopping the virus. You use it every second day. It could be ready by the summer. If people were able to use that it would go a long way to getting us back to some kind of normality.

[Smurfy123]

The same way they told us once the top 4 priority groups are vaccinated things would return to normal
Oh wait
Lockdown until the summer
The narrative keeps changing
15th of February is the day top 4 vaccinated once then a 14 day wait
Nothing will be lifted in the next date
It's a one fit suits all
Why can't the government be a bit more sensible
Like so
Do outdoor sports transmit the virus. HIGHLY UNLIKELY . Ok let's open plus it helps health and well-being
Do pubs transmit. YES. Ok keep those close until after Easter
Do school kids. Well a bit. Right let's go for after St Patrick's Day
What about gyms? Not likely. OK let's open strict protocols in all gyms
What about retail. Well let's say any you can enter straight from the street. Let's open them April
Right let's look at indoor gatherings. Yes likely. Ok let's keep that restriction in place no visitors

But no

It's all lockdown continues