China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

thewobbler

It's statistical abuse, pure and simple.

If my chance of doing something is under 1%, then a 75% increase in the chance of me doing that same something will usually still be under 1%.


Milltown Row2

Quote from: thewobbler on December 19, 2020, 11:48:48 PM
It's statistical abuse, pure and simple.

If my chance of doing something is under 1%, then a 75% increase in the chance of me doing that same something will usually still be under 1%.

Whoever put it on here was a headline grabber
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

armaghniac

Quote from: thewobbler on December 19, 2020, 11:48:48 PM
It's statistical abuse, pure and simple.

If my chance of doing something is under 1%, then a 75% increase in the chance of me doing that same something will usually still be under 1%.

There is a lack of actual scientific basis here and I wouldn't trust Boris if he told me it was December. However, the numbers are not necessarily abuse, the probability of something happening may be 1%, but in a city of 10m people that could involve 100,000 people and that could still fill the hospitals.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

imtommygunn

The cynical part of me wonders is Boris doing a look over at corona virus and not at brexit to take the bad look of him.

Very little of what he says can be trusted.

GetOverTheBar

Meanwhile in Wuhan as per videos doing the rounds, nightclubs are open.....it's party time.


armaghniac

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on December 20, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Meanwhile in Wuhan as per videos doing the rounds, nightclubs are open.....it's party time.

Wuhan did the job right, not half baked measures. Across the year, doing the job right has lead to much less social or economic disruption.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Seaney

Is this new strain (the look away strain from a few nutters dragging the UK out of the EU with no deal) only prevalent in the UK?

marty34

Quote from: Seaney on December 20, 2020, 02:11:22 PM
Is this new strain (the look away strain from a few nutters dragging the UK out of the EU with no deal) only prevalent in the UK?

No, they say it's in Ireland already.

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: armaghniac on December 20, 2020, 01:25:39 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on December 20, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Meanwhile in Wuhan as per videos doing the rounds, nightclubs are open.....it's party time.

Wuhan did the job right, not half baked measures. Across the year, doing the job right has lead to much less social or economic disruption.

Exactly, that included shutting absolutely everything, including schools down.

armaghniac

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on December 20, 2020, 05:31:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 20, 2020, 01:25:39 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on December 20, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Meanwhile in Wuhan as per videos doing the rounds, nightclubs are open.....it's party time.

Wuhan did the job right, not half baked measures. Across the year, doing the job right has lead to much less social or economic disruption.

Exactly, that included shutting absolutely everything, including schools down.

We had feck all cases in June following that period. The Chinese followed up by testing everyone to hunt down the remaining cases and of course checking anyone coming in to the country and we did not do this.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Cunny Funt

Weekly update for the ROI. A bad week the worst since early November.

Cases 3381 (1397 more than last week)
Reported Deaths 34 (6 more than last week)


In hospital 233 (40 more than last week)
In ICU 29 (2 less than a week ago)

Going by the rise in the last 7 days a educated guess says by this day next week we'll likely have 5000+ weekly cases and few will be complaining about further restrictions added on December 28th with those numbers.

Milltown Row2

Quote from: Cunny Funt on December 20, 2020, 06:05:48 PM
Weekly update for the ROI. A bad week the worst since early November.

Cases 3381 (1397 more than last week)
Reported Deaths 34 (6 more than last week)


In hospital 233 (40 more than last week)
In ICU 29 (2 less than a week ago)

Going by the rise in the last 7 days a educated guess says by this day next week we'll likely have 5000+ weekly cases and few will be complaining about further restrictions added on December 28th with those numbers.

Hopefully that'll bring the cases level to NI... no I'm just kidding that would be a dickhead thing to do
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: armaghniac on December 20, 2020, 05:36:06 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on December 20, 2020, 05:31:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 20, 2020, 01:25:39 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on December 20, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
Meanwhile in Wuhan as per videos doing the rounds, nightclubs are open.....it's party time.

Wuhan did the job right, not half baked measures. Across the year, doing the job right has lead to much less social or economic disruption.

Exactly, that included shutting absolutely everything, including schools down.

We had feck all cases in June following that period. The Chinese followed up by testing everyone to hunt down the remaining cases and of course checking anyone coming in to the country and we did not do this.

Exactly my point. You are either serious about addressing a problem, your half asssd or you aren't bothered.

The West is paying the price for embracing the latter two.

seafoid

https://ft.com/content/a0bef737-c763-447a-b1f3-0649dc5989a0... The increased infectivity of the variant is illustrated by the fact that, after appearing in Kent on September 20, it was responsible for 28 per cent of infections in London by early November and 62 per cent in the week ending December 9.

Scientists say two aspects of B.1.1.7 give cause for concern. One is the unprecedented number of mutations it carries. The other is the speed with which it is supplanting other strains of the Sars-Cov-2 virus in south-east England.

The increased infectivity of the variant is illustrated by the fact that, after appearing in Kent on September 20, it was responsible for 28 per cent of infections in London by early November and 62 per cent in the week ending December 9.

armaghniac

Quote from: Cunny Funt on December 20, 2020, 06:05:48 PM
Weekly update for the ROI. A bad week the worst since early November.

Cases 3381 (1397 more than last week)
Reported Deaths 34 (6 more than last week)


In hospital 233 (40 more than last week)
In ICU 29 (2 less than a week ago)

Going by the rise in the last 7 days a educated guess says by this day next week we'll likely have 5000+ weekly cases and few will be complaining about further restrictions added on December 28th with those numbers.

It provides a lot of empirical evidence that restaurants and pubs increase numbers.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B