China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

sid waddell

Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 03:13:08 PM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 03:07:56 PM
Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 03:05:15 PM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 02:57:36 PM
Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 02:38:56 PM

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality


This is way beyond epidemiological the societal effects now and going forward are horrendous.
What are you proposing to fix the problem?

Let folk live.
But by doing that, a hell of a lot more people will die

A slogan isn't a plan

And you want me to give the solution - what isn't the solution is causing more deaths with the cure than the cause, at this stage everyone knows who the most vulnerable are, care homes are basically closed, education and social responsibility are a better way forward than lockdowns.  What is your plan, your end game, keep everyone locked up until a mystery untested vaccine appears?
Again, that's a slogan

Given you're so unhappy with what's happening currently I think it's only fair to ask you what your proposed solution is, as the implication is that you have one

If you want to "live", Zero Covid would seem a much better strategy than "let it rip"

But three months ago was the time to implement that - doing so now would be a lot harder, and nobody in government either north or south seems to want to entertain the idea

The other solution would be to have a world class find, test, trace and isolate system

But again, it seems we cant do that, perhaps because we don't have the capacity, perhaps because government aren't willing to invest enough, perhaps a combination of those

But let it rip is not a strategy

JoG2


JoG2

Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 03:05:15 PM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 02:57:36 PM
Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 20, 2020, 02:38:56 PM

That is down to a failure of government, but it doesn't change the epidemiological reality


This is way beyond epidemiological the societal effects now and going forward are horrendous.
What are you proposing to fix the problem?

Let folk live.

Ah ha... Just get on with it?! It's that simple (in social media land)

Rossfan

We could shout "Boooo" at it.
Makes as much sense as some of the absolute ráiméis from a few here.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Angelo

Quote from: Rossfan on October 20, 2020, 03:57:53 PM
We could shout "Boooo" at it.
Makes as much sense as some of the absolute ráiméis from a few here.

That's about the level of input we could genuinely expect from an assclown like yourself.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

imtommygunn

Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 03:29:52 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on October 20, 2020, 03:24:48 PM
To a point I agree with you tbh. I think they need to start looking at specifics of lockdown measures.

However for the minute in the north it is out of control. Growing at 250% in 2-2.5 weeks could lead to catastrophe and lots of it. Something needs to be done. One thing about consequences of lockdown is that while there is no doubt there are very negative implications they aren't really quantifiable while with the cases here you imagine nothing done equals steady rate of growth(the argument could be made for exponential too) or worse so it's quantifiable.

If I were in Wales and the rates it were at I'd be more peeved about the lockdown than here. It is pretty much out of control for a place this small to have the numbers it does.

I am not sold on the pubs shutting assuming the owners are doing the right things but schools and universities IMO have done a lot here and they need to be asking questions on them.

It looks as though the virus has stagnated now, we are having fairly similar daily numbers for the past fortnight.

It has stagnated at ~1000 cases a day? That's a different version of the word stagnated than I would use...

Ed Ricketts

Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 03:27:27 PM
Quote from: Ed Ricketts on October 20, 2020, 03:19:25 PM
Testing numbers in the north are an order of magnitude greater than in the early days of the pandemic. Angelo does not seem to have factored this into his thesis about falling mortality rates.


A 20% positive test return rate and 4-5000 tests a day are also not accurate. Not the first time his figures have been off on this thread.


For anyone still in doubt, this is not a person that wants to have this discussion in good faith. His numbers are, and have been, routinely exaggerated, misinterpreted, or distorted to suit a narrative.

Around 20% positive rates have been the avg in the past few weeks and it has been steadily in and around that figure.

Fatality rates have dropped by double digit multiples in between the two waves, from 7% to 0.29%.

They are facts based on the data available.

In likelihood both the fatality rate figures are both much likely lower as the testing system does not catch all positive cases.

So you're only strengthening my case.

The graphs above, taken from the official figures, literally show that this is not true. Yet you still try to argue black is white.

Against my better judgement I decided to interact with you here again. And again you have demonstrated no interest in having a genuine discussion. There is no point trying to talk to someone that refuses to deal with facts. Refuses to acknowledge reality.
Doc would listen to any kind of nonsense and change it for you to a kind of wisdom.

johnnycool

Quote from: trueblue1234 on October 20, 2020, 02:46:40 PM
Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 02:20:39 PM
Quote from: lenny on October 20, 2020, 02:15:44 PM
Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 02:01:43 PM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 20, 2020, 01:49:21 PM
Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 01:05:26 PM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 20, 2020, 12:21:39 PM
Quote from: Seaney on October 20, 2020, 12:15:30 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 20, 2020, 12:01:28 PM
The "let it rip" merchants seem to have forgotten the awful scenes from Italy last spring, a Country which has a very good health service which was totally overcome as Covud was ripping.
They also overlook the fact that the restrictions lowered the rate of infection.
"Health Officials on a power trip".
Such a ludicrous comment straight from the Gemma school of right wing nut job fuckwittery.
The less people getting Covid translates into more beds for people with other illnesses and more ICU beds for people who need major operations etc.

But sod them just "let it rip" and sure all will be fine.

It is a headline one would expect to see in the Sun, disproportionate and made with the only rational to get a reaction, it is quite pathetic that folk go down this route - there is no end game here - no vaccine will come to our aid, we have to learn to live with it, but you conclude that that means let it rip!

we tried living with it... numbers increased again after lockdown 1 so living with it is effectively lerting it rip or herd immunity approach..

if there is a successful way to live with it i am sure we wpuld all love to hear it and so would the governments of the world.

We tried living with it?

Cases increased.

0.11 are in ICU.

Sweden are living with it at present. Their 14 day incidence rate is currently much lower than the rest of Europe.

What happens next time we come out of lockdown? Numbers surge back up again and we lock back down again, how on earth is this a viable short term solution. Crossing our fingers and hoping a vaccine comes is not a viable solution, it's absolutely insane.

bery selective quoting.. you can speculate to back you your viewpoint but suddenly its all guesswork when i ask you to example your living wiyh covid approach... also you stidys and experts are trustworthy but any that disagree with your opinion is guesswork!!!

, i am glad  that in the above post you finally acknowledge that if we come out of lockdown cases will surge back up again, when we go back to living with covid.. i.e your approach...

so your apprich will continue  the surge and our health is not capable of dealing with. as for you social distanicng washing hands etc.. we are doing that now it hasnt worked as people dont adhere for a variety of reasons..

finally, there are things we can do to support people with dperession, suffers of addiction or  domestic violance etc. we did it before and it still presists and we can do more if there is a will either during or after lockdown.

Selective.

You keeping pointing out to speculation but all you have offered to counter that is your speculation. I find it staggering you cannot see the irony there.

What also can't be sustained is coming in and out of lockdowns, lockdowns haven't worked - we went into one, came out of it and are now going back into one. So please God tell me, how the last lockdown actually managed to work?

There aren't things we can do to support them, domestic violence cases will inevitably rise with lockdowns and there's not a whole pile you can do?

So what's your strategy - remain in lockdown until there's a vaccine - how is that any sort of progressive long term solution?

Lockdowns do work. The first one worked perfectly, it got the R rate down so the NHS could cope.  Hopefully this one will work as well. We'll probably need another short one around Christmas and maybe in February before the vaccine is rolled out in spring.

The NHS is under pressure every year due to government cuts, the nightingale hospitals remained largely empty - in that time all hospital appointments were cancelled, cancer diagnosis were missed, cancer treatment were stopped, my mother fell and broke her hip at Easter, I wasn't allowed in to see her but went to drop bags down on a Saturday evening A&E was empty - I was the only none medical person knocking around, disproportionate response is an understatement.

This is worthy of discussion. And I do think the NHS need to review how they are handling on going treatments of patients. As a complete shutdown is not right in my eyes. I think it needs to try to keep moving. However there has to be an understanding that NHS workers need to be protected as well, so there will be delays as compared to none covid times. I think some Doctors and surgeons have actually come out to say that they need to try and keep things moving as the backlog will be impossible otherwise. And I would hope that this is something that is being looked at.
One of the best ways of doing this is reducing the strain on the NHS so that more and more operations and treatments can be accommodated. One of the best ways of reducing the strain on the NHS is to reduce the impact of Covid. Covid patients ARE taking up a disproportionate segment of the NHS because they get priority. This happens with none covid patients as well. You can be scheduled for an operation and find out there's been a car crash and the theater is in use and have to be re-scheduled. If something urgent comes in then priorities change within hospitals. That's why reducing the numbers coming to the hospitals is vital. Lockdowns are far from ideal, and if there is a better method of reducing those numbers then I would love to hear it. But if the number of hospitalisations continue to increase, then something has to be done or cancer patients, selective surgeries etc will all be cancelled anyway AND we'll have a covid nightmare on top of that.

The UK Government looked at Italy and made the conscious decision that the NHS would not be overrun by Covid in the same manner and in doing this cleared the decks of hospital wards into the Care Sector as well as cancel all other treatments due to the total lack of capacity in the system.
The NHS in NI is even worse off and Robin took a similar stance which is OK for a short period of time but not for the duration it did happen and doing the same now is also wrong.
Cancer treatments and the likes need to go ahead as normal IMO.

Angelo

Quote from: imtommygunn on October 20, 2020, 04:06:08 PM
Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 03:29:52 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on October 20, 2020, 03:24:48 PM
To a point I agree with you tbh. I think they need to start looking at specifics of lockdown measures.

However for the minute in the north it is out of control. Growing at 250% in 2-2.5 weeks could lead to catastrophe and lots of it. Something needs to be done. One thing about consequences of lockdown is that while there is no doubt there are very negative implications they aren't really quantifiable while with the cases here you imagine nothing done equals steady rate of growth(the argument could be made for exponential too) or worse so it's quantifiable.

If I were in Wales and the rates it were at I'd be more peeved about the lockdown than here. It is pretty much out of control for a place this small to have the numbers it does.

I am not sold on the pubs shutting assuming the owners are doing the right things but schools and universities IMO have done a lot here and they need to be asking questions on them.

It looks as though the virus has stagnated now, we are having fairly similar daily numbers for the past fortnight.

It has stagnated at ~1000 cases a day? That's a different version of the word stagnated than I would use...

Yes, it's been at circa 1k cases a day for over a fortnight without any major fluctuation.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

JoG2

Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 04:01:58 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 20, 2020, 03:57:53 PM
We could shout "Boooo" at it.
Makes as much sense as some of the absolute ráiméis from a few here.

That's about the level of input we could genuinely expect from an assclown like yourself.

A joke is much more welcome than some of your 'facts' Angelo tbh. Testing wise, we're not doing more than March / April in the North? Take Derry City for example, 3 test centres now (the latest testing centre maned by a team over from England), all flat to the mat. Compare this to 1 centre in March / April. Take a break, seriously, this cannot be healthy

imtommygunn

Cancer treatments are still happening though not as many. I think one key issue is they are constantly planning for having lot less resources because staff will be out. Seeing that, up north, 1765 staff are out with isolating or positive tests does make you realise to a degree that has to be done.

SHO/JHOs and that kind of level also get shifted with this kind of thing.

There's definitely a balance here which just doesn't seem to be being found though it can't be easy. Letting it rip is certainly not that balance lol. I suppose we are stagnating at a steady 1000 cases a day though ;D

Angelo

Quote from: JoG2 on October 20, 2020, 04:13:06 PM
Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 04:01:58 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 20, 2020, 03:57:53 PM
We could shout "Boooo" at it.
Makes as much sense as some of the absolute ráiméis from a few here.

That's about the level of input we could genuinely expect from an assclown like yourself.

A joke is much more welcome than some of your 'facts' Angelo tbh. Testing wise, we're not doing more than March / April in the North? Take Derry City for example, 3 test centres now (the latest testing centre maned by a team over from England), all flat to the mat. Compare this to 1 centre in March / April. Take a break, seriously, this cannot be healthy

So what you seem to be telling us is that the actual fatality rate in Mar/Apr was probably around 0.29%?

That actual cases in Mar/Apr/May were probably around 150k rather than 6k?

Or what are you saying?
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

Angelo

Quote from: imtommygunn on October 20, 2020, 04:14:09 PM
Cancer treatments are still happening though not as many. I think one key issue is they are constantly planning for having lot less resources because staff will be out. Seeing that, up north, 1765 staff are out with isolating or positive tests does make you realise to a degree that has to be done.

SHO/JHOs and that kind of level also get shifted with this kind of thing.

There's definitely a balance here which just doesn't seem to be being found though it can't be easy. Letting it rip is certainly not that balance lol. I suppose we are stagnating at a steady 1000 cases a day though ;D

Yeah, I think you should first of all learn what stagnate actually means rather than making an arse out of yourself.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

imtommygunn

Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 04:22:52 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on October 20, 2020, 04:14:09 PM
Cancer treatments are still happening though not as many. I think one key issue is they are constantly planning for having lot less resources because staff will be out. Seeing that, up north, 1765 staff are out with isolating or positive tests does make you realise to a degree that has to be done.

SHO/JHOs and that kind of level also get shifted with this kind of thing.

There's definitely a balance here which just doesn't seem to be being found though it can't be easy. Letting it rip is certainly not that balance lol. I suppose we are stagnating at a steady 1000 cases a day though ;D

Yeah, I think you should first of all learn what stagnate actually means rather than making an arse out of yourself.

;D What's that saying.

Aye, dead on ;D

Ed Ricketts

Quote from: Angelo on October 20, 2020, 03:29:52 PM
It looks as though the virus has stagnated now, we are having fairly similar daily numbers for the past fortnight.

Here are the most recent figure seven day average case figures for the north, incase anyone wants to have a discussion grounded in actual reality.


Doc would listen to any kind of nonsense and change it for you to a kind of wisdom.