China Coronavirus

[LCohen]

On the contrary, all I've done on this thread is challenged people who know nothing about the virus making outlandish claims about the virus.

I've repeated time and time again we know very little about it and the next 5/6 weeks will be telling on what data is returned on this second wave.

The one sure thing we know is that lockdown and excessive restrictions have and will cause severe economic and societal problems and this kind of lockdown we have must be the last we enter if the data returned from the second wave is much more positive than the first.

Time will tell us that, not a few blowhards on an internet forum.

You've shown that you know nothing about it and are very resistant to being provided with information.
You must have been vaccinated against education.

Armaghniac your feelings on Covid are so desperately loaded towards a doomsday scenario, that you're incapable of being objective in any discussion of the subject. For you to attack anyone as "knowing nothing about it" is incredulous, as you simply refuse to consider that the virus may not be a global killer., and will  refuse to read or consider any evidence against your preordained thought channel.

Not so. I am informed by the data and anyone that wishes to refute anything I say need only produce reliable data. I have never said that it is the end of the world, but over 1 million people have died and in some parts of the world deaths rates have been two and a half times the usual number, so it is not a trivial thing either.

What I am against is people who claim that "science is only guessing" or "restrictions don't work" and who then go on to claim that the disease is not serious because of a decline in fatalities resulting from better science or restrictions.

But science is guessing. Have you been paying any attention so far? They haven't a breeze. Children for instance, spreaders or not don't know. Masks? Contended. Vaccine? On the way or not? Contended? Was it airborne or just on surfaces? They changed their mind on that? Remember all the modellers who predicted X number of cases and death and how wrong were they?

You seem to be putting faith in a field that can't find unilateral agreement in itself so what exactly are you saying?

I don't see where anybody said the disease wasn't serious here so try not be disingenuous.

You don't actually understand what the word "guess" means

As a matter of interest which modellers got it wrong?

[LCohen]

You keep asking nonsense questions like which people which leads to me think you are not capable of anything close to an intelligent debate. Why don't you conduct an audit.

Here's an article for your world of ignorance and naivety.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/parents-dont-take-flu-seriously

The flu kills every year, vaccination or no vaccination. What is the acceptable level of risk? Why don't we go into lockdown every winter over the consequences of seasonal flu? Maybe you are now saying we should? At what cost does the world become consumed by Covid?

You confidently state "people on here ....." It's a logical question to ask you to name one. A question that you can't answer because it exposes your bogus argument

Stop using the flu as something to compare this to in terms of effects, numbers etc. It is such a lazy argument to bring the flu into it. Is is nothing like the flu once and is a nasty nasty repository disease.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-covid-19-isnt-the-flu

https://www.facebook.com/publichealthagency/videos/1720107168155944

To tackle this sort of nonsense head on..

A) You have a link from f**king Facebook, that says it all.

The other link has 4 main bullet points:

1.Experts say there are a number of reasons why COVID-19 is a more serious illness than the seasonal flu.

Experts say, experts say a lot of things, experts say a lot of things that contradict each other - the bottom line is these experts tend to be able to agree on very little with Covid - it's a novel virus we are still finding out about

2. They point out there's no vaccine yet for COVID-19 and community-wide immunity hasn't built up.

My that is ground breaking news, what does that tell us about whether Covid is worse than flu in its effect on someone who gets it

3. COVID-19 is also more infectious than the flu and has a higher death rate.

It's a novel virus, all across Europe now we are seeing new cases of Covid surging but fatality rates in line with the first wave dropping in multiples of up to 46 as Belgium is at the minute for instance.

4. COVID-19 also has a higher rate of hospitalizations.

As above, the second wave has been far, far less severe than the first.

It's ok to preach caution but how anyone can conclude such matters on Covid v flu at this point is idiotic, we won't know that for some time at all.

FFS....It wasn't any Facebook post. It was from the Public Health Agency. Not some half baked eejit.

Anyway, f**k it - you win. You are right and we are all wrong if that makes you feel better and the big man who is always right. I've better things to do with my life than spend all day on a forum with someone who twists and argues every minor details in some fucked up way. I'm all for debate and f**k knows I don't always get it right but I know where my moral compass is and that's all I care about. Good luck.

I'm not making any sort of definitive statements. I think it's dangerous to do so on a virus we have very limited knowledge and understanding of.

The data will be the most telling in the next few weeks and how prepared we now are to respond to it.

What is much more quantifiable is the negative impact of lockdowns on the economy, on people's livelihoods, societal impacts and mental health issues associated with it.

Can you quantify the economic impact of the steps that you advocate?

[LCohen]

Wasn't this dance done with Smurfy about four months ago? Angelo is just the more verbose version, with a poorer head for figures.

Attempts to enter into this discussion in good faith are pointless. Pointless because he has rigged the argument from the start. He has set parameters asserting that science knows nothing and can't be trusted. He is therefore bulletproof to any counter argument informed by in research or expert opinion.

This is the post fact, post truth world. Where no one knows anything more than anyone else. Where no one can know more than anyone else. Where everyone's half baked opinions all hold equal weight. Where you just make up your own reality and refuse to let anyone tell you that you're wrong.

Fortunately, Celtic and Tyrone are back in action this weekend, so yer man should occupied arguing black is white in those threads for at least a few days.

I haven't said science knows nothing or can't be trusted.

I have said this a time sensitive matter, we are now entering a second lockdown which is going have huge economic and societal ramifications. Science seems to be at odds with each other on large elements of the virus. We can't keep entering lockdowns and restrictive measures to combat the virus, it's not feasible as a long term solution and there is no indication of a short-medium term solution from science, so the alternative is us living with the virus and what level do we say Covid is an acceptable risk, much like every winter we take the seasonal flu as an acceptable risk?

The figures coming from the second wave in terms of the potency of the virus are encouraging if they continue to fall or stabilise.

You did say science hadn't a breeze.

You do seem to pick a figure and run with it.

Mortality rates seem to be your standalone thing. Fill in the rest of the picture for us. What infection case numbers does your model get to? What treatment is offered? How do you protect the most vulnerable? What impacts will there be on the healthcare sector? What about the less developed world?

Fill in the picture on your vision for the future and we can give it a bit of critique

[LCohen]

An acceptable risk to do what? Let it run rife?

At current growth rate hospitals in the north will not have the beds for people. It is rare that this had happened for flu to the best of my knowledge.

An acceptable risk to the the detrimental economic and societal problems that lockdown and restrictions bring.

Seasonal flu overwhelms hospitals every year and we accept that risk. Should governments not have spent the last 6 months planing for poor healthcare capacity?

This is where Angelo sets out the economic consequences of his alternatives

[LCohen]

I understand what you are saying but it is not just about deaths. It's about health service capacity.

I haven't read all your links but do we annually reach capacity? I wouldn't have thought so. I would also imagine that year or year you would have a worst case and a best case.

This is growing unbounded as it stands.

Lockdown is a last resort. It absolutely has to be and it's indicative of failures on many many levels but that is where we are.

Broadly I agree with you. People can be a bit knee jerk on things. There are areas arguably I wouldn't shut and they have however something drastic needs done at present.

10 years ago but here is one.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/northern-ireland-hospitals-critical-beds-crisis-after-flu-patients-swamp-unit-28580481.html

Look we are where we are. I don't have any broad objections to lockdown at this point but lockdowns can't be a long term solution.

The reason a lockdown is in place is that government didn't plan and cater for what they should have known as inevitable. Surely the past 6 months should have been focused towards increasing capacity and resources in the health system? It's the easy way out to blame the people.

That isn't annual. It does happen. It is also the case that things can be better planned for.

The big question for you is what hospital capability would there need to be year round if COVID 19 was allowed to run amok? What additional capacity would be required when additional seasonal demands kick in?

Also what arrangements will be in place in less developed economies?

[LCohen]

There were no ICU beds available in Cork Hospitals last night and now I see Portlaoise can't take any new patients as they've had to close a ward due to Covid among staff.

If nobody died the Angelo doesn't seem to care

[LCohen]

You'd expect the excess deaths level to rise again now.

What is an acceptable excess level of deaths though?

ZERO Covid and ZERO deaths appears to be the driver. Learn to live with it they said, flatten the curve they said. Coivd App they said, Coivd App they did. €€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ health spend thay got €€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ health spend they did? Golfgate they did.

Now they wonder why the citizens won't listen anymore.

How much longer do they really envisage people living like this?

There doesn't seem to be any debate on whether lockdowns are a greater danger than the virus.

I would suggest that we will have significant levels of restrictions until at least March

[LCohen]

I don't see us returning to the levels of excess deaths we saw in April/May.

Nobody does

[LCohen]

You said no government could do it a few minutes ago. If there's a will, there's a way.

The only way you can do it is by cancelling other operations and moving the nurses etc around.
Yet we had several people here implying that lockdowns did not benefit people with other diseases. 

Not true.

The way you can do it is by investing in the health service. There was no will for that.

Campaign for it then. Show your support for medical science

[LCohen]

No mention.

Indoor is about 18 times as risky as outdoor, an outdoor funfair may not have been the worst.

We're in a pandemic.
The Chinese Government built a Covid hospital in a couple of weeks.

China squashed the virus in Wuhan and around by moving resources from other parts of China. This works if it is concentrated one place.
Ireland had the Citywest facility and probably still does, but they can't move nurses etc from other parts of the country as things are much the same everywhere.

You said no government could do it a few minutes ago. If there's a will, there's a way.

We're getting close to capacity at present in the north with the no of cases peaking, an extra 20/30/40 beds would make a massive difference in how we could deal with the virus. The vast majority of people who get this won't need hospitalisation. It's a state of emergency in healthcare but the efforts that have been made at it from governmental level have been pitiful.

Instead it's easier to blame the people who abided with the first lockdown to buy them time to fix the mess that was of their own doing.

Altnagelvin doubled it's ICU bed capacity from 10 to 20 by the end of April (surge overflow beds) . That's just 1 hospital in the North, I've no idea about the rest. Though you can't make a silk purse etc....
But there's alot of folk out there that need to shoulder some blame too. People have been seen walking the streets of Derry and Strabane who have just recently tested positive. Countless idiots in shops maskless,  staff packing shelves with no masks on, Anne McCloskey and any lunatic who listens to her warped bile etc

People simply don't fear the virus anymore. The first lockdown was driven by images of Bergamo and Madrid.

If we had an adequate health service it would be able to cope with the current levels of Covid.

How long more are people expected to live in these circumstances?

But you are not calling for existing levels of COVID! Your are calling for increased levels. What is your plan for that

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/analysis-it-s-hard-for-cabinet-to-reject-nphet-advice-on-level-5-twice-1.4383167

For example, in Dublin the 14-day incidence rate was 120.9 per 100,000 of population on September 18th, the date Level 3 was introduced in the county. The capital was by then far the worst performer nationally - this compared to a countrywide incidence of 62.37.
The most recent data shows that the incidence nationwide is now 206.7 per 100,000. In Dublin, it is 194.1

[highorlow]

So neatly tucked away in page 6 of today's Irish times is the story of cases in 170 nursing homes (that's a third of all nursing homes in the country).

Lessons learned they said, but

Blame the GAA
Blame house parties
Blame weddings
Blame pubs and restaurants

Testing and tracing would be as good as South Korea they said.

Some shower in charge.

[armaghniac]

So neatly tucked away in page 6 of today's Irish times is the story of cases in 170 nursing homes (that's a third of all nursing homes in the country).

Lessons learned they said, but

Blame the GAA
Blame house parties
Blame weddings
Blame pubs and restaurants

It isn't as simple as that, people who were visiting or working nursing homes were getting Covid from these sources and bringing it into the homes.
I' sure there were plenty of cases of people partying, whether connected to the GAA or not, although people in their house worked in health care facilities, indeed some health care staff may have joined in.

[sid waddell]

So neatly tucked away in page 6 of today's Irish times is the story of cases in 170 nursing homes (that's a third of all nursing homes in the country).

Lessons learned they said, but

Blame the GAA
Blame house parties
Blame weddings
Blame pubs and restaurants

Testing and tracing would be as good as South Korea they said.

Some shower in charge.

You're one of the people who said shielding the elderly and the vulnerable should be a doddle

The onus is on you to explain how this has happened because it has once again specifically proven you and the other herd immunity nutters totally wrong

[highorlow]

I never mentioned herd immunity. I'm for shielding the elderly, implementing the basic measures and trying to get on with things.

At present we have no end game. Lock down for 6 weeks, open up for 2 months and lock down again next March is not a logical, economical or proportionate strategy. The cure will do more damage than the disease.