Sinn Fein? They have gone away, you know.

[AZOffaly]

Myles, you can spin it whatever way you like, but Sinn Fein has had a great election in the South, along with independents and Fianna Fail to a lesser extent. The reasons why that might be the case are myriad, obviously including disillusionment with FG/FF and Lab. But I don't think there's any question that Sinn Fein are now the biggest 'Left' party in the south, and probably have a decent shot of being involved in government after the next GE. (No pun intended!)

Unless Labour do a complete volte face, including leaving the government in a master PR move somehow, they will be the next election's Green party. And those Labour votes have to go somewhere.

[Hound]

Giving the disdain that FF, FG and Lab are currently held in, 15% is no great shakes.

Of course its a big improvement on previous elections. Previously people couldnt vote for Sinn Fein because of the strong links to terrorism. That's fading now, but it'll take Adams to go for people just to look forward and not back.

But economic policy is probably a bigger factor. The "tax the wealthy" motto will only work with the few people who don't understand it.  Most people realise that creating sustainable employment is key in trying to bring about the recovery and that it would be completely nonsensical to put a bigger tax burden on companies, entrepenuers and employers as it would just increase unemployment and keep us mired in the hole we are in.

[orangeman]

SF's 15% can't surely be dismissed as a protest vote. SF are here to stay north and south.

What party is going to court them in the south to form a government ?. Many said they'd never join forces but never is a very long time.

[AZOffaly]

Giving the disdain that FF, FG and Lab are currently held in, 15% is no great shakes.

Of course its a big improvement on previous elections. Previously people couldnt vote for Sinn Fein because of the strong links to terrorism. That's fading now, but it'll take Adams to go for people just to look forward and not back.

But economic policy is probably a bigger factor. The "tax the wealthy" motto will only work with the few people who don't understand it.  Most people realise that creating sustainable employment is key in trying to bring about the recovery and that it would be completely nonsensical to put a bigger tax burden on companies, entrepenuers and employers as it would just increase unemployment and keep us mired in the hole we are in.

Tax the wealthy is a perfectly valid, socialist, position. It may not be one you or I like (define wealthy),  but that sort of position will be strong with people who feel they are being rode by the 'rich'. Taxing the wealthy and using that money to fund social services would be a reasonably strong position to take, and I'm not sure that 'most' people realist that capitalism (as you've defined it above) is the best way forward. It may be a disaster in the long term, but as a message it's pretty potent to a sizeable electorate. Sinn Fein are known for working hard on the ground, and that coupled with a strong sense of identification with the traditional socialist voters will make them a sustained force in politics. Of course if they go into government and do a Labour on it, they'll be dead.

[Mayo4Sam]

If they go into government they might realise that the wealthy wont always wait around if they are being taxed to the hilt and that you have to make ends meet, no water tax, no property tax, wheres the money going to come from?

[Myles Na G.]

SF's 15% can't surely be dismissed as a protest vote. SF are here to stay north and south.

What party is going to court them in the south to form a government ?. Many said they'd never join forces but never is a very long time.

15% is a mediocre return given that 28% of those who voted chose to go for independents or other smaller parties. The fact that these people - presumably former FF, FG and Labour supporters - couldn't bring themselves to vote SF, shows the party is still considered toxic by many people. The fact that the leader of SF is still linked in people's minds to the IRA must be a factor. The fact that his deputy threatened to withdraw support for the legitimate police service of the northern state, and was backed by Mary Lou,  is probably another factor. The fact that the party still allows ex IRA men like Bobby 'we haven't gone away you know' Storey to speak on SF platforms is yet one other thing stopping people voting SF. And remember, the south isn't the problem for SF. It's the north where the party has to win hearts and minds if it's going to bring about change. Up here, it's vote has stalled, disaffected SDLP supporters are choosing to vote Alliance rather than SF, while unionism has just produced its strongest election results in years. If this is what SF voters are hailing as its best performance in nearly a century, then they're easily pleased.

[Maguire01]

The best thing Adams could do for the party now is to retire

Indeed. The party only recorded it's greatest elections result since 1918 and has trebled it's number of local council seats in the 26 counties. Adams must go!

The only relevant question is whether someone else could have done even better and taken more of those independent votes. Now is the perfect time for opposition parties in the south, so you'd have to expect serious progress at this time.

[AZOffaly]

SF's 15% can't surely be dismissed as a protest vote. SF are here to stay north and south.

What party is going to court them in the south to form a government ?. Many said they'd never join forces but never is a very long time.

15% is a mediocre return given that 28% of those who voted chose to go for independents or other smaller parties. The fact that these people - presumably former FF, FG and Labour supporters - couldn't bring themselves to vote SF, shows the party is still considered toxic by many people. The fact that the leader of SF is still linked in people's minds to the IRA must be a factor. The fact that his deputy threatened to withdraw support for the legitimate police service of the northern state, and was backed by Mary Lou,  is probably another factor. The fact that the party still allows ex IRA men like Bobby 'we haven't gone away you know' Storey to speak on SF platforms is yet one other thing stopping people voting SF. And remember, the south isn't the problem for SF. It's the north where the party has to win hearts and minds if it's going to bring about change. Up here, it's vote has stalled, disaffected SDLP supporters are choosing to vote Alliance rather than SF, while unionism has just produced its strongest election results in years. If this is what SF voters are hailing as its best performance in nearly a century, then they're easily pleased.

I don't think Independents will get 28% of the vote in a GE. In Nenagh electoral area, the poll was topped by an independent, and if it was a General Election, I just can't see that happening. The big question is whether Sinn Fein can be seen as the closest big part to the independent manifestos, and if they can be seen as that, will they attract votes? They are still fairly bad at picking up transfers, unless it's from Socialist Party or Labour Candidates. The problem with predicting that for a GE is that in the locals, the Sinn Fein candidates got elected so quickly that it's hard to know where they would have got transfers.

[AZOffaly]

If they go into government they might realise that the wealthy wont always wait around if they are being taxed to the hilt and that you have to make ends meet, no water tax, no property tax, wheres the money going to come from?

Absolutely. That's my problem with Sinn Fein (and other socialist parties). Raising Taxes to pay more money to inefficient, money leaking social services is what we used to call throwing good money after bad.

Billions of Euro have been thrown at the health service, for example, but are we getting value for money? If we are not, the answer is not to raise more money from direct taxation of certain people, it's to do a root and branch overhaul of the service. Unfortunately the socialist parties are close in their outlook to the labour unions, so any overhaul is likely to be met with resistance from the unions, as the default setting, which means I think parties like Sinn Fein (and LAbour) would back off from that.

I heard Pearse Doherty on radio yesterday morning, and I thought he was actually quite poor. He spoke about removing these stealth (not so stealthy) taxes and increasing the tax burden on those who earn over 100,000. But the sums didn't add up. He said it would negate the water charge. Pat Rabbitte said it wouldn't. He (Doherty) said that would reap 350 million p.a.. Pat Rabbitte, who was fighing a rearguard action, said that that was correct, but the water tax needs to bring in 500m.

That's a pretty big hole, and Doherty wasn't able to explain how it would be filled. 'Other measures' was his response.

That's the sort of stuff that would worry me about Sinn Fein. It's easy to say we'd abandon this, that and the other, but how do you propose to provide the services needed? Piling more tax on is a poor way of going about it.

Also, Doherty said that Sinn Fein had costed measures, but Pat Rabbitte made the good (I thought) point that they keep saying this, but have never costed an entire Budget.. That's fairly relevant and again Pearse couldn't really address it well.

[Nally Stand]

You think that was a great election result for SF? You're kidding yourself, seriously.

You're right. Everyone else is wrong.  Forgive me for not taking your analysis seriously when your pre-election prediction was a "20 year" setback for SF. Opps!!!

[Hound]

Giving the disdain that FF, FG and Lab are currently held in, 15% is no great shakes.

Of course its a big improvement on previous elections. Previously people couldnt vote for Sinn Fein because of the strong links to terrorism. That's fading now, but it'll take Adams to go for people just to look forward and not back.

But economic policy is probably a bigger factor. The "tax the wealthy" motto will only work with the few people who don't understand it.  Most people realise that creating sustainable employment is key in trying to bring about the recovery and that it would be completely nonsensical to put a bigger tax burden on companies, entrepenuers and employers as it would just increase unemployment and keep us mired in the hole we are in.

Tax the wealthy is a perfectly valid, socialist, position. It may not be one you or I like (define wealthy),  but that sort of position will be strong with people who feel they are being rode by the 'rich'. Taxing the wealthy and using that money to fund social services would be a reasonably strong position to take, and I'm not sure that 'most' people realist that capitalism (as you've defined it above) is the best way forward. It may be a disaster in the long term, but as a message it's pretty potent to a sizeable electorate. Sinn Fein are known for working hard on the ground, and that coupled with a strong sense of identification with the traditional socialist voters will make them a sustained force in politics. Of course if they go into government and do a Labour on it, they'll be dead.

I'm not saying "tax the wealthy" isnt a valid concept, I'm just wondering why SF havent got a bigger slice of the vote given how low FF, FG and Lab are at the moment, and the two reasons I came up with are the SF-IRA history and people seeing through their economic policy.

We already tax the wealthy higher than most countries and I don't believe there is a more progressive income tax system to be found anywhere else (i.e. the high earners contribute a lot more proportionately than other countries). Increasing corporate tax rates would be economic suicide, and I think a lot of people realise this and this has to impact negatively on SF.

[Applesisapples]

A couple of points Myles. I take your point but McKenzie got 256 votes and Neeson got 74. A lot of middle class Taigs/Nats are content with the status quo over change. They're not particularly British and would have little allegiance to flags or anthems, but a UI is an unknown for them and when the choice is between the known and the unknown there will only be one winner.

SF need to spend the next 3-5 years working out how a UI would work and what it would look like and then put that to that to all Nats in NI. Key big big questions over health, education, the economy, etc etc need to be answered before we can even start to debate this. The worst thing they can do is to put Alex Maskey on the telly when it's clear he doesn't have much of a clue how to answer these questions.

100% correct.

[Maguire01]

If they go into government they might realise that the wealthy wont always wait around if they are being taxed to the hilt and that you have to make ends meet, no water tax, no property tax, wheres the money going to come from?

Absolutely. That's my problem with Sinn Fein (and other socialist parties). Raising Taxes to pay more money to inefficient, money leaking social services is what we used to call throwing good money after bad.

Billions of Euro have been thrown at the health service, for example, but are we getting value for money? If we are not, the answer is not to raise more money from direct taxation of certain people, it's to do a root and branch overhaul of the service. Unfortunately the socialist parties are close in their outlook to the labour unions, so any overhaul is likely to be met with resistance from the unions, as the default setting, which means I think parties like Sinn Fein (and LAbour) would back off from that.

I heard Pearse Doherty on radio yesterday morning, and I thought he was actually quite poor. He spoke about removing these stealth (not so stealthy) taxes and increasing the tax burden on those who earn over 100,000. But the sums didn't add up. He said it would negate the water charge. Pat Rabbitte said it wouldn't. He (Doherty) said that would reap 350 million p.a.. Pat Rabbitte, who was fighing a rearguard action, said that that was correct, but the water tax needs to bring in 500m.

That's a pretty big hole, and Doherty wasn't able to explain how it would be filled. 'Other measures' was his response.

That's the sort of stuff that would worry me about Sinn Fein. It's easy to say we'd abandon this, that and the other, but how do you propose to provide the services needed? Piling more tax on is a poor way of going about it.

Also, Doherty said that Sinn Fein had costed measures, but Pat Rabbitte made the good (I thought) point that they keep saying this, but have never costed an entire Budget.. That's fairly relevant and again Pearse couldn't really address it well.

So if the wealth tax doesn't even cover water, what covers the household charge? These 'other measures' must be massive.

[Applesisapples]

Nally/glens I posed a serious question to which I'd be interested in your response please.

[AZOffaly]

Giving the disdain that FF, FG and Lab are currently held in, 15% is no great shakes.

Of course its a big improvement on previous elections. Previously people couldnt vote for Sinn Fein because of the strong links to terrorism. That's fading now, but it'll take Adams to go for people just to look forward and not back.

But economic policy is probably a bigger factor. The "tax the wealthy" motto will only work with the few people who don't understand it.  Most people realise that creating sustainable employment is key in trying to bring about the recovery and that it would be completely nonsensical to put a bigger tax burden on companies, entrepenuers and employers as it would just increase unemployment and keep us mired in the hole we are in.

Tax the wealthy is a perfectly valid, socialist, position. It may not be one you or I like (define wealthy),  but that sort of position will be strong with people who feel they are being rode by the 'rich'. Taxing the wealthy and using that money to fund social services would be a reasonably strong position to take, and I'm not sure that 'most' people realist that capitalism (as you've defined it above) is the best way forward. It may be a disaster in the long term, but as a message it's pretty potent to a sizeable electorate. Sinn Fein are known for working hard on the ground, and that coupled with a strong sense of identification with the traditional socialist voters will make them a sustained force in politics. Of course if they go into government and do a Labour on it, they'll be dead.

I'm not saying "tax the wealthy" isnt a valid concept, I'm just wondering why SF havent got a bigger slice of the vote given how low FF, FG and Lab are at the moment, and the two reasons I came up with are the SF-IRA history and people seeing through their economic policy.

We already tax the wealthy higher than most countries and I don't believe there is a more progressive income tax system to be found anywhere else (i.e. the high earners contribute a lot more proportionately than other countries). Increasing corporate tax rates would be economic suicide, and I think a lot of people realise this and this has to impact negatively on SF.

I think another reason is that local elections are usually fertile for independents, and in the current climate even more so. The question would be, in a GE where you will have less candidates, and probably less viable independents, will SF pick up a lot of those votes? I suspect if it happened tomorrow, they might.