is now a good time to buy shares?

[seafoid]

Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.

The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall

One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.

History has shown that all one needs is diversification and patience.

History has shown that all you need to win the Leinster football championship is a good team, experience , a few scoring forwards and luck.
But that doesn't work now.

It's the same in shares. You have volatility and inflation which are very unusual. These are systemic risks. they touch everything  So you have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.
Diversification only works outside of systemic risk.

[Dire Ear]

Thanks Seafoid and HiMucker

[seafoid]

This is an example. The S&P index is American
If you bought it in 2018 at 2931 you would get a return of 26% over 4 years (3715/2931).

But the index fell 3 times in the meantime. And recovered twice. From the low of 2474 in 2018 you get an increase of 37% to 3380. and from 2290 you get a return of 91% to 4385.
So if when the market fell you put your money in cash and you put it back in when it starting moving up again you could make over 100%.

2018   High   2931,69
   Low   2474,33
2020   High   3380,45
   Low   2290,71
2022   High   4385,83
   Low   3715,72

[HiMucker]

Aye but you need a crystal ball or luck for that sort of thing. Granted some investors manage to outperform the market but its incredibly risky, and some of the biggest players about consistently underperformed against vanguards original s&p 500 over a five year period. Time in the market as opposed to timing the market as they say.

[seafoid]

I do it as part of my job.
There is going to be another crash -

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/12/henrich-the-velocity-of-the-move-in-yields-is-not-sustainable-without-breaking-something.html