A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[seafoid]

The descent into the crypt was straight out of James Bond

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSn9FJ5ZU8o

[Snapchap]

Just to throw in my penny's worth as a SF voter...

And here's mine as a Unonist (though not a DUPer).

Anyhow, I was chatting earlier this evening to another Unionist (but no hardliner) and we both agreed, what must eg the mother of a dead hunger striker, or a volunteer who was shot on an operation etc, think upon seeing the recent activities oif SF?

I mean, just what the fcuk was the "armed struggle" for? So  Michelle O'Neill could fly over to Westminster to be seen shaking hands with the Royal Family etc, surrounded by British servicemen and women in unifoirm?

Before flying back and berating the DUP for not joining in helping them both administer British Rule in Ireland?

It will never be comfortable watching SF politicians shaking hands with British monarchs while we remain partitioned, but that being said, it's abundantly clear why they did it.

"Never comfortable" is it?

I'm surprised any self-respecting Republican - the clue's in the name btw - could keep from throwing up at the very sight, but no matter.

And as for "why they did it", that's bloody obvious - they're just playing politics. Which in itself might be fine - after all they're politicians these days - but to what political end?

To put one over the DUP/TUV etc, while stealing the SDLP's clothes etc and to maximise the Nationalist vote at the next election, yeah, I can see all that. But to borrow a soccer analogy, that's all just fannying about outside the penalty area, playing neat tiki-taka to entertain the fans in the stand, without ever getting a shot on target, never mind scoring a goal, the "target" being a United Ireland.

Or so I thought.

They have been getting lauded from (almost) all directions for how they've handled the last few days - most notably from middle grounders who are the very people that need to be brought on board for what is now an inevitable border poll and like all SF does - it's geared towards a successful border poll.

Christ! Do you really believe that?

Were I a Shinner, positively the last thing I'd want would be a border poll. I mean, why suffer the humiliation of losing?

For if anything, this week's activities have made a UI vote further away, not closer, on two counts.

1. "Normalising" politics in NI does nothing for Republicanism, since the closer NI gets to normality, the less pressing the need of Nationalists for a UI.

2. And even if they can maximise their share of the Nationalist/Republican vote, as I've said on here before,  a referendum is a very different proposition from an election (see eg Scotland, Brexit). And for SF to get over the 42-43% level at which Nationalism has plateaued in every election this century, they need to start persuading a significant section of the Unionist community to cease to be Unionists, reject their life-long identity and vote for something they've opposed for the last, well, forever.

And on that score, the DUP/TUV hardliners are (predictably enough) spitting feathers, while the moderates remain unmoved, seeing it all for what it actually is i.e. shameless, cynical politicking. But either way, it doesn't make any of them less of a Unionist.

As I say, I take no pleasure seeing them greet monarchs, but the reality is that it's nothing new nowadays. No existing SF voters are going to get too annoyed today at Michelle O'Neill for shaking a royal's hand. Why would they? She didn't break any new ground. SF politicians, Michelle included, have been meeting british royals for the last ten years ever since Martin McGuinness took the step first back and shook Lizzie's hand in 2012.

Seems to me that SF have had everything to gain and nothing really to lose this last week and that's how they've played it.

Nothing to lose bar their dignity and nothing to gain, full stop.

Seems to me that it wasn't just the Queen who died last week, but another little bit of Irish Republicanism.

But while we  Unionists can proclaim: "The Queen is dead, Long Live the King", what has SF got to offer next?

Taking their seats in Westminster?

Hell, why not - they've sold out on just about everything else!

That entire post reminds me of James Molyneaux proclaiming that "a prolonged IRA ceasefire could be the most destabilising thing to happen to unionism since partition". Your post absolutely screams of your discomfort at the positive reaction SF have been getting from the 'middle of the roaders' over the last week. SF won't have lost any support from it's base over the course of the last few days - they've been greeting royal visitors here for a decade after all (and I remember the jibes from opponents predicting that it meant SF were about to take their seats in Westminster back then too ). So while they won't have lot support, they will however have gained a degree of support from the middle of the road. The same people you no doubt know are key to a border poll.

And then to cap the post off with the claim that Irish Republicanism is dying, at a time when SF's is now the largest party north and south, and still growing?? You're some ostrich.

[Evil Genius]

It's a mad world we live in these days when Unionists berate SF for not being Republican enough. 🤷‍♂️

Im not "beratinng" anyone bar, perhaps, those amongst my fellow Unionists who are too thick to see what's really happening.

Re SF, it is entirely up to them how they play things, but whatever the nuances etc, they are still up against the paradox that the more they bang the drum and wave the flag to get the Nationalist vote out, the more that unites Unionism in their determination to resist.

While being more conciliatory has no effect either way on Unionists, since whether youre a Foster or a Beattie, at the end of the day you're still a Unionist.

And unless/until a significant section of Unionists can be persuaded to become Nationalists, by which I mean at least 10%, though more realistically 20%, then there is no way SF can win a referendum.

Which explains why SF are not banging on the door of the Secretary of State every day to demand one - they at least are cute enough to know how things work, I'll give them that.

[Franko]

EG's theory in a nutshell:

A person can only ever become more resolved towards Unionism, never less.  Once a unionist, always a unionist, regardless of circumstance.

Nationalists, however, are capable of become non-nationalists (or at the very least agnostic about the subject) at the drop of a crown hat.

Which is utter nonsense.

Unsurprising though, as the political leaders of Unionism display a similar head in the sand attitude to the changes occurring in front of their eyes.

[Dougal Maguire]

Some haywire stuff there from EG.  SF has been in the ascendancy for years now but it doesn't appear to be doing much to unite unionism to resist when it comes to the ballot box. You also conveniently ignore that a significant percentage of unionists appear to be on a journey towards nationalism via Alliance. If Unionism had at sense it would start to negotiate terms for a UI now while they still have some sort of a hand to play with

[weareros]

I don't get the no way a border poll can be won. Solid Unionist vote is now at 41% with heavier numbers in the 60+ age group. In 10 years, the Unionist vote will have dropped below 40%. You can equally ask where are Unionists going to get the 12-15% to maintain the Union. It will be harder because recent polls show that the Alliance vote is skewing way more nationalist in second preferences, and recent Lucid poll showed it was more heavily weighted towards a UI. In addition, Unionists have taken positions that are not popular with the middle ground and younger voters - pro-Brexit, anti-EU, anti marriage equality, anti abortion rights, skeptical on climate. This pleases their older base but will not attract the younger demographics. It will prove much harder for Unionists to make up the gap in the inevitable border poll, particularly if Dublin plays cards right and makes it an attractive proposition. Their best bet has always been Dublin not giving a damn but Brexit has forced Dublin's hand. Irish gov cannot afford to have things like common agricultural policy disrupted by Brexit as it threatens Ireland's place in Single Market. Dublin as in parties like FG now need a United Ireland. It's why they got EU to pre-approve all the paperwork once Brexit passed.

[trueblue1234]

EG's theory in a nutshell:

A person can only ever become more resolved towards Unionism, never less.  Once a unionist, always a unionist, regardless of circumstance.

Nationalists, however, are capable of become non-nationalists (or at the very least agnostic about the subject) at the drop of a crown hat.

Which is utter nonsense.

Unsurprising though, as the political leaders of Unionism display a similar head in the sand attitude to the changes occurring in front of their eyes.

In a nut shell. Which is surprising given there have been a few well know "celebrities" who have come out in the recent few months to say the opposite. Maybe these were just outliers. But maybe not.
I can understand why unionists, who for so long had a stranglehold on NI, and who have dictated for too long are now feeling edgy. They are focusing on the about turn of SF. But are happy to ignore the change in direction by their beloved British state. One who ordered the shoot to kill policies, interment etc, who are now cosying up with SF. Getting upstaged by SF at a Royal occasion too. It must really suck to be a unionist at the minute. Fighting tooth and nail, but knowing that things can only really get worse as we move towards a more equal society. Knowing that their position won't strengthen but only weaken especially in global politics.

[imtommygunn]

I don't get the no way a border poll can be won. Solid Unionist vote is now at 41% with heavier numbers in the 60+ age group. In 10 years, the Unionist vote will have dropped below 40%. You can equally ask where are Unionists going to get the 12-15% to maintain the Union. It will be harder because recent polls show that the Alliance vote is skewing way more nationalist in second preferences, and recent Lucid poll showed it was more heavily weighted towards a UI. In addition, Unionists have taken positions that are not popular with the middle ground and younger voters - pro-Brexit, anti-EU, anti marriage equality, anti abortion rights, skeptical on climate. This pleases their older base but will not attract the younger demographics. It will prove much harder for Unionists to make up the gap in the inevitable border poll, particularly if Dublin plays cards right and makes it an attractive proposition. Their best bet has always been Dublin not giving a damn but Brexit has forced Dublin's hand. Irish gov cannot afford to have things like common agricultural policy disrupted by Brexit as it threatens Ireland's place in Single Market. Dublin as in parties like FG now need a United Ireland. It's why they got EU to pre-approve all the paperwork once Brexit passed.

Brexit is a huge huge game changer in the whole thing for a whole host of reasons.

[Evil Genius]

Friendly reminder that SF is an Irish republican party. Not a British republican party. It's no more of their business how the British run their country than it is any of the Brits' business how Ireland should be governed, north or south.

Er, it is entirely the business of "the Brits", which includes people like me btw, how one part of Ireland is governed.

Which, I should add, is not an excuse to do so in a manner which ignores the position of Nationalists in NI; however we have the GFA to guide us as to how the two traditions should be accommodated.

SF's actions over the last week have been entirely consistent with their Irish republican principles.

Which principles are those then?

The one which saw Michelle O'Neill shake the hand of the King?

Or the ones which saw their IRA comrades murder the King's 79 y.o. uncle, along with his 14 y.o. grandson, and a 15 y.o. Irish boy whom he had befriended on holiday?

As for a border poll, yeah there's not much chance of our ones winning one as soon as we "win" the census, but AFAIK once you hold one border poll then you start the clock on when the next one is held, ]and they keep on getting held until the appropriate outcome comes out. This is not like Scotland where a constitutional referendum only gets held whenever a British government feels like it, or is forced into it by parliamentary arithmetic.

That is not my understanding, which iirc is that once a referendum is held, then there shall not be another one in less than 7 years. Which is not the same as saying there must be another one after seven years.

As for Scotland, you're quite right that their situation is different, but not in the way you claim. For with NI, it is entirely within the gift of the SofS for NI to call a referendum, but only if he feels that there may be a majority for a UI.

And realistically speaking, there is no more prospect of such a majority than there has been at any time since the GFA (at least). Which explains why SF aren't calling for one, even at a time when their (party) political stock in Ireland, both parts, has never been higher.

The slope to a UI is a lot slippier than the slope to an independent Scotland.

Thats what Republicans have been saying for the last 100 years!

But what you don't seem to realise is that every slope goes up as well as down, and Republicans havie to climb this one, not ski down it! 

[Evil Genius]

Just to throw in my penny's worth as a SF voter...

And here's mine as a Unonist (though not a DUPer).

Anyhow, I was chatting earlier this evening to another Unionist (but no hardliner) and we both agreed, what must eg the mother of a dead hunger striker, or a volunteer who was shot on an operation etc, think upon seeing the recent activities oif SF?

I mean, just what the fcuk was the "armed struggle" for? So  Michelle O'Neill could fly over to Westminster to be seen shaking hands with the Royal Family etc, surrounded by British servicemen and women in unifoirm?

Before flying back and berating the DUP for not joining in helping them both administer British Rule in Ireland?

It will never be comfortable watching SF politicians shaking hands with British monarchs while we remain partitioned, but that being said, it's abundantly clear why they did it.

"Never comfortable" is it?

I'm surprised any self-respecting Republican - the clue's in the name btw - could keep from throwing up at the very sight, but no matter.

And as for "why they did it", that's bloody obvious - they're just playing politics. Which in itself might be fine - after all they're politicians these days - but to what political end?

To put one over the DUP/TUV etc, while stealing the SDLP's clothes etc and to maximise the Nationalist vote at the next election, yeah, I can see all that. But to borrow a soccer analogy, that's all just fannying about outside the penalty area, playing neat tiki-taka to entertain the fans in the stand, without ever getting a shot on target, never mind scoring a goal, the "target" being a United Ireland.

Or so I thought.

They have been getting lauded from (almost) all directions for how they've handled the last few days - most notably from middle grounders who are the very people that need to be brought on board for what is now an inevitable border poll and like all SF does - it's geared towards a successful border poll.

Christ! Do you really believe that?

Were I a Shinner, positively the last thing I'd want would be a border poll. I mean, why suffer the humiliation of losing?

For if anything, this week's activities have made a UI vote further away, not closer, on two counts.

1. "Normalising" politics in NI does nothing for Republicanism, since the closer NI gets to normality, the less pressing the need of Nationalists for a UI.

2. And even if they can maximise their share of the Nationalist/Republican vote, as I've said on here before,  a referendum is a very different proposition from an election (see eg Scotland, Brexit). And for SF to get over the 42-43% level at which Nationalism has plateaued in every election this century, they need to start persuading a significant section of the Unionist community to cease to be Unionists, reject their life-long identity and vote for something they've opposed for the last, well, forever.

And on that score, the DUP/TUV hardliners are (predictably enough) spitting feathers, while the moderates remain unmoved, seeing it all for what it actually is i.e. shameless, cynical politicking. But either way, it doesn't make any of them less of a Unionist.

As I say, I take no pleasure seeing them greet monarchs, but the reality is that it's nothing new nowadays. No existing SF voters are going to get too annoyed today at Michelle O'Neill for shaking a royal's hand. Why would they? She didn't break any new ground. SF politicians, Michelle included, have been meeting british royals for the last ten years ever since Martin McGuinness took the step first back and shook Lizzie's hand in 2012.

Seems to me that SF have had everything to gain and nothing really to lose this last week and that's how they've played it.

Nothing to lose bar their dignity and nothing to gain, full stop.

Seems to me that it wasn't just the Queen who died last week, but another little bit of Irish Republicanism.

But while we  Unionists can proclaim: "The Queen is dead, Long Live the King", what has SF got to offer next?

Taking their seats in Westminster?

Hell, why not - they've sold out on just about everything else!

WUM, yawn, move on

Wow! That's me told and no mistake!

Anyhow, thank you for that searing, insightful analysis, I see I have now to rethink everything I thought I knew about Irish politics.

[quit yo jibbajabba]

Could yis not keep the same shite yis go over and over onto the one thread?

This thread is for her maj and her maj only

I see the official period of mourning is now over i was mistaken in saying it went on for another ten days. Bit of a relief as this wearing black and being sad was beginning to bring me down tbh

[Dougal Maguire]

I think the TUV website sums up the confusion. Critical of SF for being respectful critical of Celtic fans for being disrespectful

[general_lee]

It's a mad world we live in these days when Unionists berate SF for not being Republican enough. 🤷‍♂️

That tldr waffle shows that some within the Unionist community are truly rattled.

[Evil Genius]

It's a mad world we live in these days when Unionists berate SF for not being Republican enough. 🤷‍♂️

A sure sign that Sinn Fein are finally on the right track.

Except that I wasnt berating them, I was analysing their current political stance, from a Unionist perspective.

My point being that of course I prefer that they are now playing politics rather than paramilitarism etc, but either way, I genuinely don't see how their current strategy is any more likely to bring about a UI than their previous one.

SF doing the decent thing is shocking and scary. You'll never change the hardliners on both sides from being upset at them doing that, but everyone else thinks they've played a blinder. Keep this up and the moderate unionists won't be so frightened of what a UI might look like.

This (moderate) Unionist is neither "shocked" nor "scared".

While not being frightened of something is not the same as being positively enthusiastic for it.

And if Irish Nationalism is to have any hope of achieving a majority for a UI in a referendum, they need to persuade a sizeable proportion of  the Unionist population to become enthusiastic Nationalists.

And whatever the events of the last 11 days have told us about SF etc, it has also told us that the Unionist/British identity in NI is as strong as ever.

[Evil Genius]

Unionism is really struggling to process the normalisation of SF by everyone other than them and the straw clutching will go on.

Correction: party political Unionism may be struggling etc, but so what?

For as well as manadating a place for Nationalism in any devolved government in NI, the GFA also mandated a place for Unionism. And since one cannot proceed without the other, then nothing is changed whether the FM be SF and the DFM is DUP, or vice versa.

In the meantime the battle for the middle ground in NI goes on as it is they who will decide the constitutional question when it comes and it's coming.

Which one are you?