Where next for Law and Order in NI?

[Evil Genius]

I appreciate the danger of "Fearonisation"(!) i.e. splitting single topics into multiple threads, but rather than just comment aimlessly on Antrim and Craigavon and any other incidents which may arise etc, I am interested to know how people think the PSNI and Security Forces should react generally to the latest upsurge in Dissident activity?

For when Orde announced that the SRR would be deployed last week (yep, it was as recent as that  ), there were complaints from predictable sources that this was an overreaction/counterproductive etc. Do those people still think the same, in the light of subsequent events?

For it seems to me that out of the multiplicity of responses open to the PSNI etc, none is entirely satisfactory:

1. Do nothing different i.e. regular policing as before, with appeals for information etc.
This has the advantage of denying the Dissidents the reaction they seek, plus reassuring the rest of us that this place is still "normal" (relatively speaking). However, not only does this bring us no closer to arresting those who committed the recent murders, but it leaves the police (and bystanders) open to further attacks;

2. Reduce/Withdraw regular policing/patrolling etc from the most dangerous areas until the security situation improves.
This might lead to fewer murders etc of police officers. However, it will also lead to the re-establishment of "no go areas", which the Dissidents would be delighted to fill, with their own brand of "community policing". Further, it would likely provoke so-called Loyalist paramilitaries to step into the breech and resume murdering innocent Catholics etc;

3. "Emergency Policing"
New/additional powers re. questioning/detention etc for the PSNI and Courts etc, on the basis that whilst the perpetrators are likely known, under the present Rule of Law/Human Rights etc, all which can be done is lift them, question them, face a "blank wall", then release them without charge. A more "robust" approach, maybe even with some form of "selective internment" (along with the Gardai in ROI?), would conceivably get these people off the streets and off our backs? Yet I for one do not want to see that, both because it is wrong in principle, and likely counterproductive in the long run;

4. Enhanced Intelligence activity, combined with higher profile policing.
Clearly the first of these is now already in place, with the deployment of the SRR. I imagine that in the absence of hard evidence (witness, confession or forensic) to secure convictions, Orde has decided that greatly enhanced surveillance of suspects is the best way forward i.e. effectively follow them (physically and/or electronically) for 24 hours a day until either they make a mistake and/or lose all room for manoeuvre.
In addition, the police presence in dangerous areas needs to be enhanced, both to send out the message that the PSNI will not abdicate responsibility for policing, and also to disrupt the Dissidents by road checks, weapons searches etc. And with the present increased threat to their personal safety, this will mean the police must revert to Land Rovers and Rifles etc, possibly even accompanied by soldiers and helicopters etc for protection.

Of the four possibilities, it seems to me that the fourth must be the way forward, on the basis that it is the least unacceptable to everyone (bar the Dissidents).

Clearly the biggest consequences will be for people living in Nationalist areas where the Dissidents live. For in the end, if ordinary people cannot or will not supply the evidence which the PSNI needs to arrest, convict and imprison the perpetrators in their midst, then I cannot see any other alternative but to accept that the police must then come into these areas and root it out for themselves.

Which in turn puts pressure on the various political representatives to behave responsibly and make this work. Most notably, the DUP must not overreact and demand results at any price (i.e. kicking down doors, beating confessions out of suspects, suspension of the Rule of Law etc). and on the other side, SF must accept the principle that the PSNI must be allowed to deploy whatever methods they see fit (e.g. SRR. army support etc) to counter the Dissidents, with their (SF) role being to ensure those methods are "acceptable" i.e. reasonable and proportionate to the level of threat faced.

What do others think?

[magpie seanie]

Very good post.

I personally think the appearance of normality should be kept as much as possible. If extra intelliegence work/squads are brought in (1) don't shout it from the rooftops and (2) please God let them be good at their job.

The very fact that these cretins have so little/no support in their own communities should make it easier to defeat them.

[Donagh]

How about devolving Policing & Justice and leaving the PSNI to do the job they are paid handsomely to do.

[T Fearon]

How long will it be before shady British security services take over the running of the Real and Continuity IRAs, in the same manner as they currently run the armed and tolerated unionist paramilitaries?

[ziggysego]

That would be my fear too Tony, which would restart the "dirty war" and would lead to resentment in the Nationalist/Republican communities.

[Boolerhead Mel]

Under no circumstances should the British army be allowed back onto the  streets as someone who has suffered 2 beatings at the hands of these paragons of virtue I say they have no role in policing any society. Law and Order is the domain of an accountable police force. I have laughed this last 2 days at unionist and the Brit media trying to force SF into stating they want to see the BA back. Of course they do not no Irish Republican wants them back on the streets.
Can somebody give me one good news story that the SRR where involved with? Only one-I mean this is the crowd responsible for Brian Nelson-

[Gnevin]

How long will it be before shady British security services take over the running of the Real and Continuity IRAs, in the same manner as they currently run the armed and tolerated unionist paramilitaries?

Am struggleing to get a handle on this comment.

Let's assume the following are fact.
A. The Brits run the unionist paramilitaries
B. The Brits take over the republican paramilitaries
C. The Brits set the two sides against each other


Why in the name of god would they do this?

[T Fearon]

Er, they have been doing this for years. Proven fact, senior members of all the paramilitaries, unionist and republican were proven british agents.

[Gnevin]

Er, they have been doing this for years. Proven fact, senior members of all the paramilitaries, unionist and republican were proven british agents.

There is a major  difference between "take over the running of the Real and Continuity IRAs" and "senior members of all the paramilitaries, unionist and republican were proven british agents"

[Maximus Marillius]

How long will it be before shady British security services take over the running of the Real and Continuity IRAs, in the same manner as they currently run the armed and tolerated unionist paramilitaries?

Am struggleing to get a handle on this comment.

Let's assume the following are fact.
A. The Brits run the unionist paramilitaries
B. The Brits take over the republican paramilitaries
C. The Brits set the two sides against each other


Why in the name of god would they do this?

Gnevin, this post has to be one of the most naive that I have read about on Irish politics on this board ever.

[Evil Genius]

How about devolving Policing & Justice and leaving the PSNI to do the job they are paid handsomely to do.

By "the job they are handsomely paid to do", do you mean getting shot when answering calls from householders reporting a break-in?

How will the full devolution of P & J make ordinary peelers more secure in going about their job? Will it lead to people in Nationalist areas coming forward with hard evidence against the Dissidents? Or the Dissidents ending their campaign?

The fact is, the Dissidents have now seized the Provo Baton and clearly will not let go unless forced to.

Therefore, if you won't allow the PSNI the extra resources needed in order to force them to drop the baton, the only alternative is more deaths at Dissident hands, with each one adding to the risk of (so-called) Loyalist Paramilitaries starting up their murder campaign again.

[Gnevin]

How long will it be before shady British security services take over the running of the Real and Continuity IRAs, in the same manner as they currently run the armed and tolerated unionist paramilitaries?

Am struggleing to get a handle on this comment.

Let's assume the following are fact.
A. The Brits run the unionist paramilitaries
B. The Brits take over the republican paramilitaries
C. The Brits set the two sides against each other


Why in the name of god would they do this?

Gnevin, this post has to be one of the most naive that I have read about on Irish politics on this board ever.

How so ? Tony is inferring than the British want to run some sort of war with the Unionist and Republicans as pawns and them in total Control. I can see no advantage in them doing this. Can you ?

[Evil Genius]

How long will it be before shady British security services take over the running of the Real and Continuity IRAs, in the same manner as they currently run the armed and tolerated unionist paramilitaries?

"Take over the running of" in order to do what, exactly? Help them kill more Squaddies, Peelers and Pizza-delivering "Collaborators"?

The fact is, the security services already have more more on their hands than they can cope with, dealing with Islamic terrorists in GB etc. Virtually every week there is another trial of the latest lot. Indeed, one of the 7/7 bombers was known previously to police, but surveillance of him was withdrawn due to lack of resources.

Quite frankly, the last thing the intelligence services need now is to have to divert more operatives to NI.

[Zapatista]

How so ? Tony is inferring than the British want to run some sort of war with the Unionist and Republicans as pawns and them in total Control. I can see no advantage in them doing this. Can you ?

It means then that the Brits can act as if they are there to keep two factions apart. They can then tell the world that the two sides are fighting eachother and the Brits are actually trying to keep the peace. If the Brits are attacked it can be broadcast to the world that 'peace keeping Brit forces were attacked' rather than the truth which is 'occupying forces were attacked.'They have been doing this since the 70s.

[Zapatista]

How long will it be before shady British security services take over the running of the Real and Continuity IRAs, in the same manner as they currently run the armed and tolerated unionist paramilitaries?

"Take over the running of" in order to do what, exactly? Help them kill more Squaddies, Peelers and Pizza-delivering "Collaborators"?

The fact is, the security services already have more more on their hands than they can cope with, dealing with Islamic terrorists in GB etc. Virtually every week there is another trial of the latest lot. Indeed, one of the 7/7 bombers was known previously to police, but surveillance of him was withdrawn due to lack of resources.

Quite frankly, the last thing the intelligence services need now is to have to divert more operatives to NI.

Then they should go home and deal with there own problems.