Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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Maiden1

Quote from: seafoid on February 23, 2019, 08:17:16 AM
Quote from: Maiden1 on February 22, 2019, 11:28:09 AM
Quote from: GJL on February 21, 2019, 07:49:02 PM
Quote from: heganboy on February 21, 2019, 07:40:51 PM
Looks like Corbyn may now lean towards a second referendum.
with the splits in both parties- I'd say that passes parliament without the DUP support.

may has been angling towards a two option vote- my deal vs no deal

doesn't look like she's going to get what she wants...
https://britorbot.org/the-conversation/


The lunatic British public might still vote leave and with no deal.
I think if there was a second referendum the most likely outcome would still be leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/jan/26/guardian-icm-brexit-poll-full-results

If there is a high 40% of people openly admitting they would vote leave that to me indicates there is likely a silent minority who also would vote leave if there was another vote that don't want to admit they would.

In general if a poll says a number and there is a choice which seems more 'liberal' and a choice which is seen as more extreme a certain percentage should be weighted towards the second choice.

e.g.  I conduct a poll

Would you be a happy to live next door to a non Caucasian (or someone of a 'funny tinge' as Angela Smith would call them)?

and the results where

70% Yes
30% No

The people who say no they wouldn't be happy to live next to a non white person are mostly being honest.  They are admitting they are essentially somewhat racist (if a person tells you what they are believe them).  A higher percentage of the people who say Yes are likely to be not telling the truth.  It could be an 'anonymous' phone survey but the person calling you knows your phone number so it not that anonymous and you may not want to divulge your true feelings to them.  If someone asks you the question on the street are you comfortable ticking no in front of them, maybe the person asking the question is a funny tinge or is friends with 1, either way they might judge you.

Margaret Thatcher got elected every time when the poll numbers indicated that she would not get elected and we are seeing time after time 'shock' results in elections and referendums.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-right-or-wrong-were-the-polls/

https://britorbot.org/the-conversation/
Sorry I didn't click on your link first time you posted it.  Pretty much same conclusion though. Brexit result would probably be same if reran. 
There are no proofs, only opinions.

HiMucker

Quote from: Hardy on February 23, 2019, 11:22:47 AM
Quote from: RedHand88 on February 23, 2019, 08:21:05 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 22, 2019, 05:33:02 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on February 22, 2019, 04:54:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 22, 2019, 01:52:15 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 22, 2019, 11:25:22 AM
Jasus Seaf you must think we're all retired or are Senior managers here ;D
There is way too much news these days
There is chaos everywhere

It's the end of the economic system.

I remember as a child hearing about McDermotts Department Store in Castlerea. It was fabulous in the 60s
according to everyone who spoke about it. 
It collapsed sometime in the late 70s when the last economic system collapsed

It's a good job you copy and paste all of that news in case we miss it!! What do you do for a living?? You seem to have serious time on your hands.

I advise companies on how to get through
the next crash and I do stuff on Raidio ná Gaeltachta

You never know who might be interested on the board.
Financial Risk affects everyone .

I for one enjoy your in depth analysis and posting of articles that normally we wouldn't be able to see.

Me too.
Have to say I also agree. I find Seafoid on point more often than not. His articles leave no shortage for toilet reading!

LCohen

Quote from: seafoid on February 20, 2019, 11:51:18 AM
Quote from: mouview on February 20, 2019, 11:24:03 AM
With Wollaston and Heidi Allen. Was hinted at on Newsnight last night. Hopefully the trickle becomes a torrent. Always felt a bit sorry for Soubry under the Tories; she fought tooth and nail against Brexit and the ERG and got little support or thanks for it.
She is not a groupthinker
Very impressive as Brexit got even worse

What has she achieved?

I agree that she has been admirable on the Brexit issue but what does her resignation amount to?

LCohen

Quote from: Denn Forever on February 20, 2019, 01:58:12 PM
Have the Splitters formed a party?  Ideal in a first passed the post electoral system.

They are specifically not forming a party. If they do they are subject to the political funding rules. Right now we don't know is funding them

Also as a party they would struggle to form a manifesto that they could all sign up to - apart from on Brexit

LCohen

Quote from: trailer on February 20, 2019, 03:14:02 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 20, 2019, 03:11:05 PM
Quote from: trailer on February 20, 2019, 03:05:04 PM
It's a really risky strategy for these MPs and most will probably pay with their jobs at the next election. It OK being a Tory candidate going up against Lab, Lib Dems etc but it's another being an Independent going up against them all. That's why we see a broad spectrum of people in all parties. How many times have we heard such and such party is a broad church. Mogg and his cohort of Brexiteers should really be in with someone like a UKIP. Corbyn and the leftists with the Workers Party or a Communist party.
Both parties should clearly split. But with the FPTP system, they can only do it if both agree at same time. Otherwise if one splits, the other is pretty much guaranteed a decent majority government, even if they lose some vote %

Of course, they could change the voting system, but I don't think the Brits could handle that. Even though we've had it for donkeys, there's still a huge amount of voters who stop at 1.

They held a referendum on the voting system. Lib Dems (who it would benefit the most) pushed for it as part of the coalition. It was rejected.

Lib Dems were hoodwinked by Cameron. The option (Alternative Vote) was crap.

LCohen

Quote from: seafoid on February 20, 2019, 06:10:34 PM
Brexit is destroying the reforms of the 80s
At last- an upside

LCohen

Quote from: GJL on February 21, 2019, 07:49:02 PM
Quote from: heganboy on February 21, 2019, 07:40:51 PM
Looks like Corbyn may now lean towards a second referendum.
with the splits in both parties- I'd say that passes parliament without the DUP support.

may has been angling towards a two option vote- my deal vs no deal

doesn't look like she's going to get what she wants...

The lunatic British public might still vote leave and with no deal.

It's why a lot of sensible heads are looking for a soft Brexit to minimise the damage and move on

Rossfan

Quote from: LCohen on February 23, 2019, 11:10:49 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on February 20, 2019, 01:58:12 PM
Have the Splitters formed a party?  Ideal in a first passed the post electoral system.

They are specifically not forming a party. If they do they are subject to the political funding rules. Right now we don't know is funding them

Also as a party they would struggle to form a manifesto that they could all sign up to - apart from on Brexit
Registered ad a Company in Panama!!!!!
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

mouview

Quote from: LCohen on February 23, 2019, 11:07:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 20, 2019, 11:51:18 AM
Quote from: mouview on February 20, 2019, 11:24:03 AM
With Wollaston and Heidi Allen. Was hinted at on Newsnight last night. Hopefully the trickle becomes a torrent. Always felt a bit sorry for Soubry under the Tories; she fought tooth and nail against Brexit and the ERG and got little support or thanks for it.
She is not a groupthinker
Very impressive as Brexit got even worse

What has she achieved?

I agree that she has been admirable on the Brexit issue but what does her resignation amount to?

A stand on principle. If no-one ever shouts stop.....

seafoid

Quote from: mouview on February 24, 2019, 12:43:47 PM
Quote from: LCohen on February 23, 2019, 11:07:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 20, 2019, 11:51:18 AM
Quote from: mouview on February 20, 2019, 11:24:03 AM
With Wollaston and Heidi Allen. Was hinted at on Newsnight last night. Hopefully the trickle becomes a torrent. Always felt a bit sorry for Soubry under the Tories; she fought tooth and nail against Brexit and the ERG and got little support or thanks for it.
She is not a groupthinker
Very impressive as Brexit got even worse

May cancelled the vote again. Without the 3 she doesn't have the numbers

What has she achieved?

I agree that she has been admirable on the Brexit issue but what does her resignation amount to?

A stand on principle. If no-one ever shouts stop.....
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

seafoid

Tt looks like Brexit is going to be delayed
Basically because the UK Govt is totally paralysed. It has a working majority of 3.
The DUP want no Deal to escape from the GFA and the ERG want to destroy the UK economy
and they have the balance of power. There are about 30 remainers who don't want to blow everything up.

The Daily Sturmer says delay max  2 months
The EU are asking for 2 years

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/24/exclusive-brexit-will-delayed-two-months-plans-considered-theresa/
Exclusive: Brexit will be delayed by two months under plans being considered by Theresa May


By Steven Swinford,  Deputy Political Editor  and
Anna Mikhailova,  Political Correspondent 
24 February 2019 • 9:30pm   

Brexit will be delayed for up to two months under plans being considered by Theresa May to extend Article 50, The Telegraph has learned.

Downing Street officials have drawn up a series of options in a bid to avoid resignations by ministers determined to support a backbench bid to take no deal off the table this week.

The Prime Minister said she will delay a meaningful vote on her deal by up to two weeks until March 12, just 17 days before the UK is due to leave the European Union.

The Telegraph understands that the plans drawn up by Downing Street officials, which were circulated at the weekend, include making a formal request to Brussels to delay Brexit if she cannot secure a deal by then.

It came as the Prime Minister failed to secure a breakthrough "deal in the desert" during talks with European leaders at an EU-Arab summit in Brussels.

She said that leaving by March 29 is "still within our grasp", a far more downbeat assessment than her previous insistence that Britain will leave the EU on Brexit day.

While the Downing Street plans do not specify the length of the extension, ministers believe it will be no longer than two months - avoiding the need for the UK to participate in European parliament elections.

On Wednesday the Commons will vote on a backbench bill tabled by Yvette Cooper, a senior Labour MP, that would force Mrs May to request an extension of Article 50 if a deal has not been reached by March 13.

The Prime Minister could avert a rebellion by Tory MPs and a Commons defeat by committing to requesting a Brexit delay herself, although in doing so risks alienating Eurosceptic Tory MPs. "It's very finely balanced," a source said.

The Telegraph can also disclose that a group of moderate Tory MPs will today table a new amendment that requires the Prime Minister to extend Article 50 if she cannot secure a deal.

The amendment put forward by Simon Hart, the leader of the 100-strong Brexit Delivery Group, states that the extension of Article 50 must not go beyond May 23rd.

The Prime Minister resisted calls to sack three Cabinet ministers who argued openly that Article 50 should be extended.

Amber Rudd, the Work and Pensions Secretary, David Gauke, the Justice Secretary and Greg Clark, the Business Secretary, signalled they could support a backbench bid to delay withdrawal in order to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative leader, and other senior Eurosceptics said they had breached collective responsibility.






The Prime Minister, however, indicated that they will not be censured. She said: "I have recognised and others have recognised that there are strong views that are held on this issue.







What we are collectively doing as a government and as a cabinet is working to get that deal. "Parliament wants to see changes to the backstop. We have been working with the EU on that. Our focus is on leaving with a deal. My intention is to work with a deal."

The Downing Street plans, which were drawn up at the end of last week, included three central options - a meaningful vote on the Prime Minister's deal, a "conditional" vote on the Attorney General's legal advice and a commitment to request an extension of Article 50.

After Mrs May announced a delay to the meaningful vote, two options remain. Ministers believe a conditional vote on  the Attorney General's plans for a new legal text to ensure that the Irish backstop is strictly time-limited could help strengthen the Prime Minister's hand in Brussels.

The Prime Minister yesterday met Donald Tusk, the President of the European Commission. Mr Tusk is said to favour a lengthy extension to Article 50 of two years, rather than the two months being discussed by ministers in the UK.






Mrs May faced criticism from business leaders and some MPs for delaying a vote on her Brexit deal until March. The CBI group of business leaders accused the Prime Minister of "running down the clock", while Ms Cooper said that the delay makes her bill "more vital than ever".

While Mrs May did not rule out extending the Brexit date beyond March 29 yesterday, she also said it would not "solve" anything. "Often people talk about the extension of Article 50 as if it will solve the issue -  of course it won't," she said. "It defers the point of decision".

Mr Hart, the head of the Brexit Delivery Group of MPs, said: "This would give the Government the time needed to conclude any deal and associated legislation or provide a further period in which the Government could properly plan for a no deal."

Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, said that those criticising Cabinet ministers for backing an extension of Article 50 are "heresy hunters". However he urged his colleagues to vote against the backbench bid to delay Brexit.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Farrandeelin

Ah Jesus. At this point I just want this sorry WA agreement stuff to be done with. Extending it for 2 months is hardly going to change anything, will it?
Inaugural Football Championship Prediction Winner.

mouview

Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 25, 2019, 07:26:30 AM
Ah Jesus. At this point I just want this sorry WA agreement stuff to be done with. Extending it for 2 months is hardly going to change anything, will it?

Despite the uncertainty being very bad for business, anything that extends Brexit is good. Keep putting it off, keep fighting it; maybe eventually common sense would reign and people would see how bad it is for the UK. I'd take my chances on a second referendum; voters now would be more educated as to the choices in front of them and businesses would surely be very vocal on the dangers of any Brexit. Hard-Brexiteers (and the DUP) are scared stiff of a second ballot, so therefore it must be a good thing.

seafoid

Quote from: mouview on February 25, 2019, 10:19:29 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 25, 2019, 07:26:30 AM
Ah Jesus. At this point I just want this sorry WA agreement stuff to be done with. Extending it for 2 months is hardly going to change anything, will it?

Despite the uncertainty being very bad for business, anything that extends Brexit is good. Keep putting it off, keep fighting it; maybe eventually common sense would reign and people would see how bad it is for the UK. I'd take my chances on a second referendum; voters now would be more educated as to the choices in front of them and businesses would surely be very vocal on the dangers of any Brexit. Hard-Brexiteers (and the DUP) are scared stiff of a second ballot, so therefore it must be a good thing.
I agree.  The longer it is dragged out the more people will understand how awful it is
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

johnnycool

Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 25, 2019, 07:26:30 AM
Ah Jesus. At this point I just want this sorry WA agreement stuff to be done with. Extending it for 2 months is hardly going to change anything, will it?

Are there not European elections due in and around that time frame?