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Messages - seafoid

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1
General discussion / Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« on: March 21, 2019, 03:15:29 PM »
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/03/21/black-thursday-britain-humiliated-on-global-stage-as-it-begs


Black Thursday: Britain humiliated on global stage as it begs EU for more time

Ian Dunt  By Ian Dunt 
Thursday, 21 March 2019 8:49 AM
    

We're not in the room when they decide what happens to us. First Theresa May will make a short speech. Then she leaves and the leaders of 27 other countries make a decision. We wait outside. That's how Britain finds out what happens to it. It's taken just three years - three years of nationalism and political puritanism - to reduce the country to this status.

May's previous speeches have often managed to turn otherwise sympathetic European leaders against her. They don't appear to be any better behind closed doors than they are in front of cameras. In both instances they lack charisma, or intellectual content, or even a hint of personal responsibility. She cannot think creatively about problems. She cannot lay out a convincing case for how to proceed with them. All she can do is blame other people - the EU, opposition parties, the House of Lords, or the institution of parliament itself - for her own failings. Expecting her to live up to the historical moment is like asking an old Casio calculator to log on to the internet.

As it happens, the EU leaders will probably reject the offer of a June extension and fix it to the month of May. It doesn't matter. The prime minister is unlikely to get her Brexit deal through next week, so it's largely academic. The crucial moment will come next week, if it is defeated, as we find out whether they will meet again and provide a longer extension. We expect the answer to be yes, but we are no longer in control of our fate. Other countries decide it for us.

This is the core fact of today: our fate in the hands of others. It is very real and genuinely profound. When else were we brought so low? Which other moment in our modern lifetime ever saw us so humiliated? Suez? That was nothing. A bad-tempered chat with the Americans which made it clear we couldn't run the world anymore. Denis Healey asking the IMF for an emergency loan? Black Wednesday? These were drops in the ocean next to what is happening to us here. We are living through history - and not the good kind. We're living the kind that even in 20 or 30 years' time, people will say: 'Well this is bad, but it's not as bad as Brexit.'
 


The causes of today's events are many and varied. The government wasted time it did not have. MPs were unable to accept the practical consequences of a theoretical course of action they were intent on pursuing. There was insufficient preparation. There was a preference for echo chamber reassurance instead of cold, hard calculation. We fiddled and bickered as the fire took hold.

Remainers want to blame everything on Brexit as a concept. Leavers want to blame how it was pursued. But the reality is that both ends and means have been terrible.

Brexit involves leaving a membership-based regulatory super-power, with huge trading strength, which functions according to the strict and unyielding implementation of law. You are always going to have less control outside than you do in. If Brexit happens, that'll be the case for all sorts of decisions, from the coding on driverless cars to best practice in medical trials. We'll do the same as they do, just to keep life ticking away as easily as possible. The only thing that will have changed is that we won't be in the room making the decisions anymore. Today is just a particularly dramatic, system-wide application of the basic principle which is set to govern our future as a nation: self-imposed exile from power.

But even if you did decide to pursue this project, there are good ways to do it and bad ways. The good way is to come up with a set of deliverable goals and a realistic timetable. The government did not do that. The goals it set were largely impossible - such as maintaining the exact same benefits as single market membership while leaving it - and the timetable was established on the basis of domestic political concerns rather than a disinterested assessment of what was required. This is what happens when you fixate on pleasuring the most hysterical and right-wing elements of your party instead of thinking about the good of your country.

Cooler heads warned about this moment for years: when the result came in, when Article 50 was triggered, when the government refused to be honest about the obstacles in front of it, when May wasted time on a pointless election or ran down the clock in the last few weeks. This is precisely the moment they feared: A proud country, reduced to begging. Brexit is an outrage to the status of Britain. It is an act of national mutilation.

But it is also a reminder, in these final pivotal moments of the Article 50 process, of what's at stake. The power, reputation and pride of the country is on the line. The primary argument against Brexit has always been a patriotic one. And today shows why that is. You can run from that truth. You can hide from it. But there's no place left anymore. It is plain for all to see. The bleak, drab, pitiless reality of what this project entails is now visible to the world. It can still be stopped, and it must be.

Ian Dunt is editor of Politics.co.uk and the author of Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now?

2
General discussion / Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« on: March 21, 2019, 01:49:01 PM »
WTF

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/19/no-deal-better-brexit-delay-say-public-poll-finds-just-one-10/

No deal is better than Brexit delay, say voters – exclusive Telegraph poll


 Despite the Brexit shambles, Mrs May remains the most favourable politician with over one quarter of voters
•   Camilla Tominey, ASSOCIATE EDITOR
19 March 2019 • 6:00am
Follow
Nearly half of the British public is confident that the UK will ultimately thrive if it leaves the EU without a deal, according to a new poll.
The exclusive ComRes survey for The Daily Telegraph found that 46 per cent of adults think leaving without a deal would “briefly cause some uncertainty but ultimately work out OK”, compared with 40 per cent who support extending Article 50.
Three in 10 adults (30 per cent) think leaving the EU without a deal on March 29 will be the best possible outcome, according to the poll, compared with more than two in five who disagree (43 per cent). ComRes also asked on behalf of Leave Means Leave if taking no deal off the table has weakened our negotiating hand. Half (50 per cent) say yes, and 24 per cent no.
Asked if Mrs May’s deal delivers Brexit, just 14 per cent say yes and 54 per cent no. Just 18 per cent believe it honours the referendum result, compared with 33 per cent who think it does not. Thirty seven per cent say in 2016 they expected to leave with no deal, while 20 per cent expected to leave with a withdrawal agreement.
The Telegraph poll found the country split over whether Theresa May should put her Withdrawal Agreement to a third meaningful vote, with 38 per cent for and 39 per cent against.
Nearly two thirds of Britons (61 per cent) think Brussels is trying to punish the UK in the negotiations, while one in five disagrees (22 per cent).
The findings mark the first in a new series of regular monthly polls in a partnership between The Telegraph and ComRes to track voter attitudes. The poll puts Labour one point ahead of the Conservatives on 35 per cent – almost unchanged since the last ComRes voting intention poll conducted earlier this month. In a general election, it would leave the Conservatives 41 seats short of a majority.
Despite the Brexit shambles, Mrs May remains the most popular politician, with the backing of 27 per cent of voters. Asked if she should resign immediately, 34 per cent agree and 41 per cent disagree.
Although half (52 per cent) regard her as bad at negotiating Brexit, she is still the most popular choice with 29 per cent of voters, compared with 25 per cent who think Boris Johnson would do a better job and 21 per cent who would prefer Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Just 18 per cent of adults think Jeremy Corbyn would do a good job in negotiations, while 58 per cent disagree. He is also the least popular politician, with a 56 per cent disapproval rating, while nearly half have an unfavourable opinion of Mr Johnson (49 per cent).
Suggesting that public trust has eroded in politicians, three in five have an unfavourable view of MPs (59 per cent), compared with only five per cent who say they are doing a good job.
Only one in 10 British adults says they trust MPs to do the right thing by the country over Brexit (11 per cent), while seven in 10 disagree (68 per cent).
The Leave Means Leave poll found nearly half (44 per cent) of the public thinks the Government “seems to be in favour of remaining in the EU and has set out to thwart Brexit from the beginning”, with 27 per cent disagreeing.
ComRes interviewed 2,033 British adults online between March 15-17

3
Hurling Discussion / Re: The home of hurling
« on: March 21, 2019, 01:36:44 PM »
Bit of a surprise with the Dubs beating Tipp who are not as lethal as in seasons past
 
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/gaelic-games/hurling/dublin-spring-surprise-against-tipperary-1.3829052

Hard to know as Sheedy is open about the fact that he felt Tipp weren't as well physically conditioned as some other teams and he's probably set about correcting that.
If they were put through a few tough training sessions in the week then it's no wonder they were flat.

it's all about May now.
they made a huge improvement between April and the AIF in 2017 so maybe it's nothing

4
General discussion / Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« on: March 21, 2019, 12:32:25 PM »
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/21/new-brexit-extension-mps-must-finally-do-jobs-make-decision/

With a new Brexit extension, MPs must finally do their jobs and make a decision
•   
Nick Timothy
21 March 2019 • 7:00am
The choice is clear: May's deal or a softer Brexit
The Brexit showdown is often called a Mexican standoff. But it’s now apparent that MPs are not pointing guns at one another 
but peashooters, water pistols and bendy bananas. Attempts to force a no-deal Brexit have failed. The plot to impose a long delay has, for now, been thwarted. And without a longer delay, a second referendum is unlikely.
Donald Tusk, however, has shown that he has a gun and a barrel-full of bullets. His statement yesterday made clear Brussels will only accept Theresa May’s request to extend Article 50 until June if the Commons approves the Withdrawal Agreement.
He was addressing several audiences. Remainers in Parliament heard that Britain might leave the EU without a deal at the end of next week. After all, Tusk has made 
the acceptance of the only official request to delay Brexit conditional 
on the approval of a deal many Remainer MPs have previously opposed.
But note that he did not rule out a longer delay. He was replying only to what Theresa May asked the European Council in her letter yesterday. So Leavers cannot be sure that voting down the Withdrawal Agreement will lead to the no-deal Brexit many of them favour.
Voting against the deal might still lead to a lengthy delay, and with such a delay, the possibility not only of British participation in the European Parliament elections, but the danger of a second referendum and, with that, the risk we might not leave the European Union after all.
For these reasons, the Tusk intervention was a deliberate attempt to boost the Prime Minister’s chances of passing the deal. And it is time, now, for MPs to recognise the nature of the choice they face.
Leavers are right that the PM’s deal is awful, because it leads us into a trap we can escape only by subordinating our laws to those of the EU or sacrificing Northern Ireland to the Republic.
But they need to accept that there is no longer a better option on the table. Sometimes it is better to live to fight another day than fight hopelessly to the death.
Likewise, Remainers should know that their only chance of stopping Brexit is through a second referendum, and the only, narrow, chance of a referendum is if there is a longer delay.
There is no existing Commons majority for a second public vote, and the Europeans have not said they will agree a lengthy delay. So if Remainer MPs won’t back the PM’s deal, their best alternative is to vote for a customs union, or the Norway model, or both: options we know the EU would add to the Withdrawal Agreement in the political declaration.
MPs have plotted for months to try to find ways to wrest control of Brexit from the Government. But while the Commons cannot conduct international negotiations, and it cannot unilaterally decide what the EU will not agree, it has been in a position to determine the direction of Brexit all along.
Ever since Gina Miller defeated the Government in the Supreme Court, insisting that Parliament must legislate to invoke Article 50, and through the sorry saga of Grieve amendments, meaningful votes, and Cooper, Boles and Benn amendments, MPs could have taken control with each Brexit vote.
They could have voted for the PM’s deal, but they rejected it, twice. They could have voted for no deal, but they rejected that, twice. They could have voted for a second referendum, but they refused. They could have voted for a softer Brexit, meaning a customs union, a Norway-style relationship, or a combination of the two. But they refused to do that too.
All they have decided is to extend Article 50 if necessary.
The Prime Minister is often accused of kicking the can down the road, but she is not alone: that is all MPs can agree to do.
Even when MPs have had the chance to take control of the Commons timetable, which would allow them to find a way of expressing their preferred outcome, they have fluffed it. Whatever we think of the actions of the Speaker – as partisan as he is pompous, as venal as he is vain – his procedural chicanery is not really the issue.
The difficulty is that MPs, whose job is to decide on important matters, cannot make up their minds.
We have a Brexit Secretary who told the Commons to vote to delay Brexit, in the national interest, but then voted against doing so. MPs who back a second referendum refusing to vote for one, because they prefer other options to be ruled out first. And Brexiteers jeopardising Brexit itself because the PM’s deal is not what they wanted.
To be fair, this is a collective crisis, but the choices facing MPs have narrowed. So far, for reasons of obstinacy, vanity and whipping, and in many cases a fear of taking a position, MPs have refused to decide. But they are paid to make up their minds, and their choice is now clearer.
Whether they like it or not, they must decide between the PM’s deal and a softer Brexit.


5
General discussion / Re: Cookstown Incident
« on: March 21, 2019, 11:40:43 AM »
It's very rare for such a thing to happen in Ireland or the UK and every year thousands of gatherings of people happen with no problem. Something must have gone really wrong.
The investigation is crucial. 

6
Hurling Discussion / Re: The home of hurling
« on: March 21, 2019, 11:31:32 AM »
Bit of a surprise with the Dubs beating Tipp who are not as lethal as in seasons past
 
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/gaelic-games/hurling/dublin-spring-surprise-against-tipperary-1.3829052

7
Tyrone / Re: Tyrone County Football and Hurling
« on: March 21, 2019, 08:30:40 AM »
See McCarron has retired. Controversial enough character I suppose.

Whatever about his off the pitch life, he was a good servant to Tyrone on the pitch and was a very dependable player for a number of years.
A very good player. Mickey Harte was great to take him back in and have faith in him.

8
GAA Discussion / Re: Joe Brolly
« on: March 21, 2019, 08:26:03 AM »

India celebrate their independence, even though they were partitioned.

India was partioned from Pakistan (East and West), not northern India... d'oh!  :P :)
The Brits left in a hurry. The border between India and Pakistan was decided in a few weeks. In the north there is a large region which is still disputed between the countries.
 Does this sound familiar ?

9
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« on: March 21, 2019, 07:18:12 AM »
Tulsi Gaaboard is also in the presidential running.

10
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: March 21, 2019, 04:20:06 AM »
I’d  say this is the last chance for the Tories to own Brexit.
If the deal is rejected again Grieve and co will have to vote with the opposition
to start a new process and avoid No Deal.

11
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: March 20, 2019, 05:30:31 PM »
Tusk just now

Extension provided the HoC votes for the Withdrawal agreement

Only if the deal is passed before next Friday. Which again make chances of a no deal increase, EU have effectively issued the House of Commons an ultimatum. Back May's deal next week or crash out. She has called a press conference at Downing Street for this evening. Perhaps she will offer to resign or call an election.
The Kyle/Wilson amendment is by far the most sensible way out of this.

Pailiament vote for the deal on the proviso that the deal has to pass a referendum in order to be implemented.

If it loses the referendum, the UK remains in the EU and Brexit, like Basil Fawlty's duck, is off.

It's far too sensible, which is why it has no chance.

No deal is perilously close now.
No deal would be suicidal for the Tories
If the Winter of discontent made Labour unelectable for 18 years No deal would be worth at least 36
You'd be amazed at how much of a self-perpetuating bubble reactionary right-wing ideology (read: "fascism") is.

A fascist can use literally anything to justify to themselves that they are right.

Look at the Christchurch massacre and the reaction to it by fascists.

A fascist will tell you tomorrow is Sunday. Never mind that tomorrow is actually Thursday, it's definitely, definitely, definitely Sunday.

They don't have a majority. They are fascists but they are only 80 out of over 600. And they whine a lot

We must stand firm and reject Theresa May's Brexit deal or we will live to regret it
•   
Steve Baker
20 March 2019 • 6:00am
The one advantage of the Cabinet’s Withdrawal Agreement is that it would allow us to claim Brexit on March 29. Of course, some colleagues are attracted to it – but the British people have already spotted a dud deal.
According to ComRes polling yesterday, 54 per cent say it does not deliver. Just 14 per cent approve. If we put this agreement through and Theresa May negotiates the future relationship as hopelessly as our withdrawal, we will find ourselves with all the disadvantages of membership and none of the advantages of Brexit.
I understand my Conservative colleagues want to say they have delivered Brexit for fear of voter backlash and I understand the nation is crying out for progress, but this deal would backfire terribly by the next election.
Voting for this deal is not pragmatism. It is the reverse. It would be an understandable but counterproductive surrender for immediate respite.
The pragmatic, realistic response to the deal is to keep clearly in sight what it does, what it will stop us from doing in future and the impossibility of escape from it, once we have locked the door on ourselves.
Leavers cannot be responsible for the actions of pro-EU fanatics determined to overthrow the foundations of our democracy, whether they attack the mandate of the voters, the procedures of the House of Commons or the ministerial code. Some of us will not be forced to share responsibility with them for overturning not just the decision of 17.4  million people, but the legitimacy of our entire system. That is what we will have done if we convert a clear instruction to take back control into a further surrender of our capacity for self-government, forever.
Elected politicians asked the public to choose. All sides said we would honour their decision. They chose independence, despite every horror placed before them, and we stood on manifestos fulfilling that choice. Yet since Chequers it can be seen our fearful Establishment intends us to be a satellite of the EU, locked in a decaying orbit with no way out.
If we vote for this deal, we will have locked ourselves in a prison with no voice and no exit. We will escape only with the permission of those whose authority we rejected. The PM won’t resign if the agreement goes through. She will stay and drag us miserably into deeper political disaster.
Practical politicians looking to the future must resist pressure and stop this deal. And it will not be stopped now or in the future by voting for it. This is reality and foresight. It is not self-indulgence or ideology but a practical grasp of what lies ahead.
Perhaps as some suggest, we are defeated, brought into a clever catch-22 with no good choices. But we were not outmanoeuvred. We were outnumbered. Always. From the start and regardless of the election. A determined minority of Conservative and Labour MPs has fought a sustained rearguard action all the way through. If, in the end, we are beaten by those numbers, there will be no shame in it.
But we are not beaten yet. Soon the EU27 will realise that there are those politicians in the UK who, together with a majority of the voters, will not “come to heel”. The EU will discover a strategy founded on our capitulation has not worked. They will see they cannot afford no-deal as they head into a European Parliament election already bound to undermine further integration. That’s why now more than ever the Prime Minister should change policy. At this European Council, it is time to strictly limit the length of the “Implementation Period” and to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements on the Irish border which can endure indefinitely between our two territories in a spirit of friendship, goodwill and trust.
In the midst of a deep political crisis following naturally from intolerable policy choices, the exit is clear – either revise the Withdrawal Agreement to deliver self-government, or exit on World Trade Organisation terms while offering to negotiate the EU’s proposal of last March. Any other course would be open to political failure.
Steve Baker is the MP for Wycombe

12
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: March 20, 2019, 05:16:06 PM »
Tusk just now

Extension provided the HoC votes for the Withdrawal agreement

Only if the deal is passed before next Friday. Which again make chances of a no deal increase, EU have effectively issued the House of Commons an ultimatum. Back May's deal next week or crash out. She has called a press conference at Downing Street for this evening. Perhaps she will offer to resign or call an election.
The Kyle/Wilson amendment is by far the most sensible way out of this.

Pailiament vote for the deal on the proviso that the deal has to pass a referendum in order to be implemented.

If it loses the referendum, the UK remains in the EU and Brexit, like Basil Fawlty's duck, is off.

It's far too sensible, which is why it has no chance.

No deal is perilously close now.
No deal would be suicidal for the Tories
If the Winter of discontent made Labour unelectable for 18 years No deal would be worth at least 36

13
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: March 20, 2019, 05:13:21 PM »
Tusk just now

Extension provided the HoC votes for the Withdrawal agreement

Only if the deal is passed before next Friday. Which again make chances of a no deal increase, EU have effectively issued the House of Commons an ultimatum. Back May's deal next week or crash out. She has called a press conference at Downing Street for this evening. Perhaps she will offer to resign or call an election.
If May drops the red lines other options become available. It's not just no deal or her deal
If her deal is rejected for the 3rd time a gamechanger will have to happen - GE, Referendum or cross party effort for a new Brexit.

14
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: March 20, 2019, 04:11:29 PM »
Tusk just now

Extension provided the HoC votes for the Withdrawal agreement

15
General discussion / Re: The IRISH RUGBY thread
« on: March 20, 2019, 03:42:09 PM »
Zebo should still be on the panel. I why was the exception make for sexton but no one else
Ireland probably don't have the strength in depth to be so choosy. The interests of the provinces and the national team aren't always
in perfect alignment.
Bit of a nightmare tournament considering the expectations going into it.

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