26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

Itchy

Quote from: magpie seanie on January 15, 2020, 02:14:59 PM
Quote from: Itchy on January 15, 2020, 01:41:13 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on January 15, 2020, 11:29:13 AM
Quote from: seafoid on January 15, 2020, 10:46:19 AM
Climate change is happening so I would expect a lot of younger people to vote for the Greens.
I really wonder if enough voters are prepared to forgive FF for 2008 and the bank guarantee.

People should be voting Green as they're the only one who seem to get the climate crisis.

I suspect there are a lot of ex-FF supporters who will be emboldened to return to FF after Leo and co's shenanigans - homelessness and the health service being at all time lows when "the economy has never been better". Never mind the recent commemoration fiasco. Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

I fundamentally disagree with this point. Foe example, the quickest way to reduce emissions in Nuclear but will the greens even consider that? No. So they have their own little ideology and I think that they will be the last people to make a real change. Look at the balls they made out of car tax (emissions vrs engine size vre 2008), what sort of f**k acting was that.

Can you work out why they'd be against it?

"their own little ideology" - this is scientific fact. If you don't accept science that's your prerogative but in my opinion it's not a very tenable position. I for one do not want to leave my kids in a world that is irretrievably damaged which is what will happen if we don't act now. Ignorance is no defense. The facts are out there.

I never denied the science, I stated my opinion that greens have their own little ideology which includes refusing to switch to a clean proven technology like nuclear. It's not about being green, it's about being green their way. In addition they are totally city centric and have no clue of the reality of life outside the cities.

seafoid

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-parties-react-to-injury-of-homeless-man-in-dublin-1.4140360


Another confident prediction. Odran Flynn, psephologist (numbers nerd to me and you) has been on Pat Kenny's show on Newstalk predicting the Greens will win a seat in every Dublin constituency with the exception of Dublin North West. That would more or less tally with my own prediction. I have them winning seats in all Dublin constituencies, bar Dublin North West and Dublin Mid West. Former Green Paul Gogarty, now an Independent, has acted as a barrier there.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

yellowcard

This election will be very interesting in terms of what it tells us about Irish society. FG's record on issue's such as health, housing and crime has been woeful and they are probably the most right wing Irish government that I can remember. Also more PR bull and spin doctoring than I care to remember. I hope that people vote with their conscience to correct the ills in society as a whole rather than simply thinking about their own pockets.

The alternative is FF who have their own recent history of overseeing the financial crash and running the economy into the ground. They have never really recovered from that and I think Micheal Martin is a particularly poor leader and it would be a huge leap of faith to put them back into government.

It looks like Hobsons choice in terms of which is the ruling party in government.

Rossfan

Exactly, the next Government will be led by either FF or FG (as had been in effect since 1922).
A higher proportion of well heeled and comfortable people vote. Those people will have Health insurance and their only interactions with the Public Health system will be if a family member needs to go to A&E.
So the health issue wont sway them.
Those who are parents of 20 somethings and live in cities/commuter belts will see the effects of the housing crisis and could be tempted to vote left of centre -if only we had a decent left of centre party.
The Greens probably see themselves as that Party but how many houses would they get built as they tilt at Climate windmills.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Eire90

People will vote for ff fg again and the shinners are a bunch of rats too.

five points

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on January 15, 2020, 07:15:52 PM
Quote from: J70 on January 15, 2020, 05:05:36 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 15, 2020, 02:29:25 PM
"Fivepoints" seems to be the new Syferus with his nonsense.
What Country had Johnson a groundswell of support in?

Syferus didn't come out with the type of mindless, right wing nonsense five points does.

More likely to be foxcommander. Similar style and all. Just needs the anti-black posts to cement it.

We'll see if he develops an obsession with me. That'll be a give-away.

I've been here longer than you and I've managed to more or less totally ignore your ramblings for almost a decade now.

seafoid

Quote from: Eire90 on January 16, 2020, 11:07:47 AM
People will vote for ff fg again and the shinners are a bunch of rats too.
FF and FG have no answers to healthcare, house prices or homelessness.
Business as usual doesn't work at the moment.
5% of people own 40% of everything.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

five points

Quote from: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 11:14:53 AM
Quote from: Eire90 on January 16, 2020, 11:07:47 AM
People will vote for ff fg again and the shinners are a bunch of rats too.
FF and FG have no answers to healthcare, house prices or homelessness.
Business as usual doesn't work at the moment.
5% of people own 40% of everything.

The political class including Labour, SF and the Greens and independents broadly agree with FF and FG on healthcare and the housing/homelessness disaster. That's why none will propose mass admin redundancies in the HSE for example or a huge private building programme to restore the housing stock relative to population that we had a decade ago.

Rossfan

Private building is done by private builders who charge as much as they can get away with (naturally enough).
What's needed is a Public building programme (tendered to builders) on Public/NAMA lands of houses for sale at cost plus admin fee  and/or Tenant purchase scheme with rents set to cover the cost over 30 years.
Credit Unions have about €4 Bn lying around which theyd love to lend to the Stare/NAMA for 18 months to get the houses built.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 11:14:53 AM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

If that is true, that is relatively progressive compared to some other places!

For contrast, in the USA, 1% of people own 40% of everything.
i usse an speelchekor

five points

#115
At an optimistic unit cost of €250k per unit, 4 billion would build 16,000 houses, a drop in the ocean.

We need to get back to building at least 50,000 units a year.  I don't care who builds them, and no matter who does tradesmen, engineers and managers are going to charge top dollar anyway. Either way if the State takes on to do it, it is going to struggle to borrow the sort of money that is needed. That's why I suggest a private building programme.

five points

#116
Quote from: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 11:14:53 AM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

The old kulak fallacy. A young tech graduate with big borrowings and no arse in his trousers has a current and lifetime earnings capacity that dwarfs his country uncle living on a 100 acre farm with a paper value of a million euro. When he gets to 60, he'll own the uncle's farm, it'll still be worth a million on paper and won't be able to turn a cent in actual income.

weareros

Quote from: five points on January 16, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
At an optimistic unit cost of €250k per unit, 4 billion would build 16,000 houses, a drop in the ocean.

We need to get back to building at least 50,000 units a year.  I don't care who builds them, and no matter who does tradesmen, engineers and managers are going to charge top dollar anyway. Either way if the State takes on to do it, it is going to struggle to borrow the sort of money that is needed. That's why I suggest a private building programme.

Who will build them? That is the question. What people forget is that after the last economic collapse (courtesy of FF and Greens and Irish banks), the building business died and many of the tradesmen if not most had to emigrate. As a country we also became anti-builder (thanks to many of the cowboys who were in the business, the poor planning by councillors and banks that would give a dog a mortgage if he walked in asking for one). We also are of course anti-landlord (which is a word with negative connotations in Ireland to begin with, but we talk of modern day landlords as if they are the English gentry with their foot on the neck of tenants). Contrast with a city like New York where builders/developers are minor celebrities, indeed one of them is President. They can be gobshites too. But they don't have to put up with the negativity that attaches to them in Ireland and both luxury and low income housing is developed at a rapid scale - throughout the whole country. If you want to solve the housing crisis - you actually got to be nice to the "creators." We are not but we expect buildings and housing to spring up in the same way some husbands expect clean socks to magically appear in his sock drawer every morning.

seafoid

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on January 16, 2020, 12:25:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 11:14:53 AM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

If that is true, that is relatively progressive compared to some other places!

For contrast, in the USA, 1% of people own 40% of everything.
95% of people own 60% of everything VS 99% OF people own 60% of everything. Not much of  difference
It's all going to collapse. 
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

five points

Quote from: weareros on January 16, 2020, 01:36:36 PM
Quote from: five points on January 16, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
At an optimistic unit cost of €250k per unit, 4 billion would build 16,000 houses, a drop in the ocean.

We need to get back to building at least 50,000 units a year.  I don't care who builds them, and no matter who does tradesmen, engineers and managers are going to charge top dollar anyway. Either way if the State takes on to do it, it is going to struggle to borrow the sort of money that is needed. That's why I suggest a private building programme.

Who will build them? That is the question. What people forget is that after the last economic collapse (courtesy of FF and Greens and Irish banks), the building business died and many of the tradesmen if not most had to emigrate. As a country we also became anti-builder (thanks to many of the cowboys who were in the business, the poor planning by councillors and banks that would give a dog a mortgage if he walked in asking for one). We also are of course anti-landlord (which is a word with negative connotations in Ireland to begin with, but we talk of modern day landlords as if they are the English gentry with their foot on the neck of tenants). Contrast with a city like New York where builders/developers are minor celebrities, indeed one of them is President. They can be gobshites too. But they don't have to put up with the negativity that attaches to them in Ireland and both luxury and low income housing is developed at a rapid scale - throughout the whole country. If you want to solve the housing crisis - you actually got to be nice to the "creators." We are not but we expect buildings and housing to spring up in the same way some husbands expect clean socks to magically appear in his sock drawer every morning.

You are of course correct. We are in a hole of our own making.