China Coronavirus

[Blowitupref]

17 deaths along with 5325 cases is the Republic's latest daily figure

Deaths really beginning to tick up again now and they will continue to do so

16 of those deaths happened in the last 5 days.

Working through the backlog cases now

9625 positive swabs the last 48hrs
Confirmed cases last 48hrs 11435

Dr Holohan today

We can turn this around quickly if we stick to the measures we know worked last spring. We have seen some early progress in that the average number of contacts per case has been dropping in recent days.

[sid waddell]

The prevalence of the UK variant is up to around 25% of cases in the Republic now per Six One news

There should be no assumption that cases have peaked or anything like it, it can go a lot, lot higher

[Blowitupref]

The prevalence of the UK variant is up to around 25% of cases in the Republic now per Six One news

There should be no assumption that cases have peaked or anything like it, it can go a lot, lot higher

Could not can.

[Angelo]

Well beyond?

Look at the winter flu season of 17/18.

It's not well beyond that, it's slightly beyond it.

The flu in 2018 has 10,000 excess deaths in a month, April 2020 had 30,000 excess deaths in a month despite extensive measures, but of course Covid is not really seasonal and there were 15000 excess deaths a month in the autumn also. Even in NI, deaths in the first week of November were up one third on  the 5 year average, and outside any previous experience for that time of year, the rest of November was more like up 20%. 

We did not bat an eyelid when we had 50k excess deaths during the winter flu season of 17/18. The death rates this winter should be compared with that of a bad winter flu season and see what the difference was and whether we have overreacted.

Who is "we" in this case?

It had 50K excess deaths from Dec 17 - Mar 18 in the UK. Excess deaths are excess deaths at the end of the day. It's dangerous to go around excusing one trigger for huge excess deaths and causing panic and hysteria over another triggers and that's what is happening.

Everyone, did you hear anyone demanding lockdowns, schools being closed, face masks, people working from home etc

50k excess deaths was perfectly grand for the general population.

Now going back to a point I made earlier - any confirmed case of flu this winter yet? Are people not skeptical of that? Does it not make people curious that we have no reportings of a seasonal flu which hosptialises and kills thousands of people every year?

[Milltown Row2]

Is the flu just during the winter? And is Covid a year round thing?

[Captain Obvious]

Stupid is as stupid does.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1346577348683046926

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-all-travellers-into-state-will-have-to-provide-negative-pcr-test-1.4450888

"Covid-19: All travellers into State will have to provide negative PCR test"

Traveller is such a loaded word in Ireland.

[downjim]

If construction ceases's in the south what will happen in the North, the sites are not safe at the minute? I was on a site yesterday with one toilet for 20 of us tradesmen!

[WeeDonns]

Presume construction workers in the south affected by closed sites are put on Furlough - but what about Northerners who were working on those sites - can they be furloughed even though their industry hasn't been told to stay at home in NI?

[Angelo]

Why have we lost the run of ourselves?



You can see from the above that the peak of Covid so far has not touched the peak of a bad winter flu season.

What's the metrics here? What is an acceptable level of death and what's not that justifies the carnage lockdowns bring to society as a whole?

How many excess deaths has lockdown been responsible for rather than Covid?

These are the questions we need to address.

[imtommygunn]

Over 1900 positive cases today. Looks like 57 more people in hospital too from yesterday or could be some backlog. 592 inpatients in total from covid. I remember a time that was less than a hundred.

At the current rate of growth and bearing in mind deaths and hospital cases follow a lag there are going to be big problems with hospital capacity in the north very very soon. (Not that there aren't already).

[Norf Tyrone]

Why have we lost the run of ourselves?



You can see from the above that the peak of Covid so far has not touched the peak of a bad winter flu season.

What's the metrics here? What is an acceptable level of death and what's not that justifies the carnage lockdowns bring to society as a whole?

How many excess deaths has lockdown been responsible for rather than Covid?

These are the questions we need to address.

That shows deaths 11.2% higher for 2020. If you look at April (Deaths as a result of the virus spreading pre lockdown) it's 50% higher. That's despite all the measures in place.

What would deaths be like IF we carried on regardless?

[Mario]

Angelo, you raise some interesting points. As far as i'm concerned as soon as the over 70s and vulnerable are vaccinated hopefully by the end of February/early March, everything should open and there should never be another lockdown because this chaos can't go on. Covid isn't going to go away, are we going to lockdown every winter? We just have to live with it unfortunately.

[Captain Obvious]

Why have we lost the run of ourselves?



You can see from the above that the peak of Covid so far has not touched the peak of a bad winter flu season.

What's the metrics here? What is an acceptable level of death and what's not that justifies the carnage lockdowns bring to society as a whole?

How many excess deaths has lockdown been responsible for rather than Covid?

These are the questions we need to address.

That shows deaths 11.2% higher for 2020. If you look at April (Deaths as a result of the virus spreading pre lockdown) it's 50% higher. That's despite all the measures in place.

What would deaths be like IF we carried on regardless?

you can at least triple the death rate.

[Norf Tyrone]

The updated figure for NI after FW 49 is 16431 which is on track for 17436. I can't find the link on the NI stats page to see what it's reading now at year end.