A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[armaghniac]

Interesting letter in the Newsletter
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/letters/unionist-community-getting-older-shrinking-and-needs-get-serious-about-future-2948965

[6th sam]

Interesting letter in the Newsletter
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/letters/unionist-community-getting-older-shrinking-and-needs-get-serious-about-future-2948965

This is the crux of the way forward. Persuade the persuadables

[Rossfan]

To take here minds of the Covid

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/1022/1173114-taoiseach-shared-island-north-south/

[Applesisapples]

To take here minds of the Covid

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/1022/1173114-taoiseach-shared-island-north-south/
[/quote
A border poll won't ever be on Micheál's agenda.

[Chief]

To take here minds of the Covid

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/1022/1173114-taoiseach-shared-island-north-south/
[/quote
A border poll won't ever be on Micheál's agenda.

If it looks like there is a majority in the 6 counties for unity it'll happen regardless of his "agenda".

I'm fairly convinced there will a border poll in the next five years - the momentum is very clearly in that direction even if the actual result is not as clear.

What is insufferable to me is this attitude that is implied by various southern commentators (and is evident in Micheál's comments) that even if Northern nationalism has a majority, it shouldn't take what it is entitled to and what has been fairly and democratically won.

Instead it should take a perceived moral high ground, wait until it's handy for everyone else, and in the interim live with foreign rule for another few decades or so.

The notion that we achieve a United Ireland by not talking about it directly, or by calling it something else (e.g. A Shared Island) is patently stupid. 

[Rossfan]

Chief
1 only the Brit Sec of State can call it in the 6
2 if the 26 vote NO there won't be Unity.

[Chief]

Chief
1 only the Brit Sec of State can call it in the 6
2 if the 26 vote NO there won't be Unity.

Correct on both counts but with important qualifications:

1) The SOSNI is obliged to call it in the case a majority becomes evident - so if there is a Northern nationalist majority it happens.
2) Calling a border poll and winning it are separate things. Even if the 26 might say no, that is no basis (either in the GFA or anywhere else) to deny the people their chance to express their constitutional preferences.

For what it's worth I don't think it's a forgone conclusion at all that a border poll would be won, but my gut tells me it would.

[Rossfan]

What will be the  SoS criteria for believing that a Majority might vote to leave the (dis)UK?
Census figures?
Nationalist Parties getting more votes than Unionist ones?
Nationalist Parties getting over 50% of the votes?

[Chief]

What will be the  SoS criteria for believing that a Majority might vote to leave the (dis)UK?
Census figures?
Nationalist Parties getting more votes than Unionist ones?
Nationalist Parties getting over 50% of the votes?

I think there will a few different opinions on that.

In my view nationalists need either 50% of the votes cast in any election or a majority of seats in an assembly or Westminster election. Either works.

[armaghniac]

In my view nationalists need either 50% of the votes cast in any election or a majority of seats in an assembly or Westminster election. Either works.

They already have half the Westminster seats, but they are never going to get 50% of the votes.
Presently you have 39% Nationalist, 41% Unionist and there is a big Alliance and Green bloc of votes, many of these people would vote for a UI if a proper deal was done. The nationalists will likely come to exceed the unionists as soon as the next election, but they are not going to reach 50% for a very long time.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

As noted before nationalists have more Westminster seats. If you include people before profit and ignore their spoofing on the subject then nationalists and unionists are level in the assembly. I fully expect all sorts of dirty games to be played to delay a poll. As noted earlier unionists will demand 50% for SDLP and SF which will never happen even if they dwarf the unionist tally. This will of course ignore nationalist leaning small parties and independents but also ignores the ever increasing others who are very pro- European union and would leave a bojo Tory UK in a heart beat. I have mentioned before the SoS will do nothing on the subject until they are taking to the courts to fulfill their commitments

[Rossfan]

I suspect your last sentence may well be the way it will happen.
Meanwhile we are putting up €500m in the Shared Ireland Unit to improve cross border infrastructure, A5 etc.

I know Martin had to satisfy his own crowd plus Varadkar and Ryan in naming his 11 Seanadóiri but he could have picked a "civic unionist" and a "civic nationalist" from the 6 Cos to prove his commitment to Shared Ireland.

[Chief]

In my view nationalists need either 50% of the votes cast in any election or a majority of seats in an assembly or Westminster election. Either works.

They already have half the Westminster seats, but they are never going to get 50% of the votes.
Presently you have 39% Nationalist, 41% Unionist and there is a big Alliance and Green bloc of votes, many of these people would vote for a UI if a proper deal was done. The nationalists will likely come to exceed the unionists as soon as the next election, but they are not going to reach 50% for a very long time.

I know they have half the Westminster seats.

In my view that's a mandate for a border poll - it's the same electoral system for example that was used to satisfy the democratic argument for independence in 1917.

I'd be delighted if we called a border poll tomorrow, and generally speaking I don't think it's northern nationalists who fear having one.

[weareros]

Part of the process is the whole "unification by regulation" that someone brought up on this board before. I think it was a John Hume quote. That's already in motion and the Irish Sea border for customs is a huge step forward. You already have all-island electricity grid, all-island tourism and a bigger move into food and agricultural standards. When the border poll comes so much will have been quietly done that it won't be a big shock to economic system. This is not shouting from the rafters stuff but Unionists know it's happening. It will become harder to argue against economic integration, it's less emotive stuff, and that will win the day ahead of political ideology on both sides.

[sid waddell]

There will be another Scottish independence referendum before there is a border poll

But if that passes, and at this stage you'd have to say it's likelier it will, it could create a domino effect

I certainly think there was a massive domino effect as regards countries declaring independence in the old communist bloc from 1991 on, and it had been coming for a while

If the Scots go it alone I'd expect you'd see a big surge in Welsh separatism as well