26 County General Election 2020

[yellowcard]

Mary Lou will have to perform like never before tonight because I'm sure the boys will gang up on her...

Conor Murphy/Paul Quinn
Ard Comhairle
Tax policies

Its doubtful though whether they can land a knockout blow on SF at this late stage. I was looking at the projections this morning we're very near the point where others would be the biggest group

The impact of these debates are often overstated and unless anyone of them drops a clanger I really don't see it changing much in terms of swaying peoples opinions. The media love to hype them up however and if they pick up on something they can set the news agenda for a period afterwards.

In a PR election, transfers will be just as important as first preference votes and the fact that FF & FG combined have less than 50% of the vote based on polls could make it really difficult when forming a government. It will likely be FF and some other combination but the numbers may well leave them with little option but to consider a coalition with either FG or SF. 

[Hound]

Its possible, I bet if Leo had his time over again he wouldnt have chosen a Saturday! In fairness I think turnout is a big unknown, how pissed off are the young people and how willing are they to put down their mobiles and go out and vote? One very interesting thing was that the Greens only scored 7% I think in the youngest group polled yesterday, SF I think were in the 30s which is incredible (going by memory here as cant find it online)

I'd say Leo regrets not calling the election in Oct/Nov when public sentiment was that he'd done a very good job on Brexit. Now that it's all done and dusted, it's old news.

The Greens got off to a great start, because anyone with sense knows the environment's a huge issue. Unfortunately, the Greens acknowledged that we'll all have to sacrifice, even if it's only a little bit. Whereas SF are saying someone else is going to be pay for everything!

There might well be near enough full employment, and you're able to go on holidays every year, you're able pay for Netflix every month and you've got your X-Box, but there's a fooker around the corner with a bigger house and a bigger car. He can pay for it! Up the Shinners, what's not to love?

[Rossfan]

Especially as we'll all be living in €65,000 houses, will have no tax to pay, everything will be free.......
Why didnt someone think of all this before?
Who said 1977?

[yellowcard]

Its possible, I bet if Leo had his time over again he wouldnt have chosen a Saturday! In fairness I think turnout is a big unknown, how pissed off are the young people and how willing are they to put down their mobiles and go out and vote? One very interesting thing was that the Greens only scored 7% I think in the youngest group polled yesterday, SF I think were in the 30s which is incredible (going by memory here as cant find it online)

I'd say Leo regrets not calling the election in Oct/Nov when public sentiment was that he'd done a very good job on Brexit. Now that it's all done and dusted, it's old news.

The Greens got off to a great start, because anyone with sense knows the environment's a huge issue. Unfortunately, the Greens acknowledged that we'll all have to sacrifice, even if it's only a little bit. Whereas SF are saying someone else is going to be pay for everything!

There might well be near enough full employment, and you're able to go on holidays every year, you're able pay for Netflix every month and you've got your X-Box, but there's a fooker around the corner with a bigger house and a bigger car. He can pay for it! Up the Shinners, what's not to love?

They probably thought there was no chance that they would be in government prior to their manifesto being drawn up so they could say what they wanted. Most people simply don't look into the details as we have seen in recent elections elsewhere. Now there is an outside chance that they could be part of a coalition government with FF or FG. In which case they can hide behind the bigger parties policies. However if that came to pass I think they would suffer a similar fate to the Labour party as a minority partner.   

[Main Street]

We have been here before. SF poll well but on the day it doesn't materialise.

No lad, we have never been here where SF is polling ahead of all other parties. It is true that their support is larger in young people than old and that young people are less likely to turn out. I see the Indo is doing its patriotic duty but throwing IRA into the mix again, pathetic rag. Unfortunately for them the people voting for SF dont buy newspapers anymore.

SF never match their polling numbers. Why will Saturday be different?

But I agree operation scare the shite out of them is up and running. But thats not really aimed at SF core.

SF gained 9 seats in 2012 and another 9 in 2016.
It is a party which is progressively building a solid base, not just a so called vote of discontent. 

[Snapchap]

We have been here before. SF poll well but on the day it doesn't materialise.

Not entirely true, it would seem. On Newstalk the other day, an analyst of some description was on talking about previous elections, and noted that Sinn Féin only finish well below early campaign polls, but that the most accurate polls tend to be those done in the final week of an election, and that in the last few elections, the 'final week' polls were very close to getting SF's actual % correct, with the party typically only ending up around 1% below the predictions.

[Harold Disgracey]

De réir phobalbhreith TG4 / Ipsos MRBI, tá baol ann go gcaillfidh Danny Healy Rae a shuíochán

Danny Healy Rae in trouble according to a poll to be released on TG4 this evening!

[Rossfan]

That's what he gets for not wearing a cap!

[Eamonnca1]

Never underestimate SF; their's is a long-term strategy.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-tipperary-vote-postponed-after-candidate-dies-1.4160576

[mouview]

Off-shore islands used vote a couple of days ahead of mainland constituencies, but only have their ballot papers counted along with the rest at the main count, presumably in case their votes would give biased direction to other voters (?). In light of that, would it not seem proper to delay the main count until the reconstituted Tipp voting has taken place? Is there a precedent for this? It's different from a by-election after all.

[Rossfan]

Happened in Council elections in Roscommon in 2004 in the Ros Town electoral area.

[Itchy]

Especially as we'll all be living in €65,000 houses, will have no tax to pay, everything will be free.......
Why didnt someone think of all this before?
Who said 1977?

Lad, what slightly irritates me is this snobbery around SF's lack of financial know how. I mean when you consider the mess the country is in today, homelessness, a childrens hospital out of control and hospital services that are almost 3rd world (to name a few) brought to you by the financial experts in FF and FG. Who are they or their supporters to throw stones. They have royally fucked the country. For christ sake FF ran it to bankruptcy and had the IMF in and their leader was a minister in that government!

[mouview]

Especially as we'll all be living in €65,000 houses, will have no tax to pay, everything will be free.......
Why didnt someone think of all this before?
Who said 1977?

Lad, what slightly irritates me is this snobbery around SF's lack of financial know how. I mean when you consider the mess the country is in today, homelessness, a childrens hospital out of control and hospital services that are almost 3rd world (to name a few) brought to you by the financial experts in FF and FG. Who are they or their supporters to throw stones. They have royally fucked the country. For christ sake FF ran it to bankruptcy and had the IMF in and their leader was a minister in that government!

Homelessness is a (greater) issue in many western/EU countries. As are health services. Children's hospital is a bad look alright. FG inherited a lot of FF-made problems and have made a fair fist of righting them. Do you think SF would have been able to do likewise? Do you really think SF, under control by 'shadowy forces', would have the nous, freedom or capability to run an economy? Don't trust them or give into silly opinion-poll propaganda. Vote with the house, it's safest.

[seafoid]

People want change but until a Government is elected with a mandate to take on the vested interests who control the country there will only be tweaks.

« No matter how well written or delivered, a speech cannot divert whole societies from a well established course of action. Policies in motion tend to stay in motion ; to change the trajectory of a deeply embedded set of initiatives requires the application of political forces of equal motion » Steve Walt

Gilmore  said "Frankfurt's way or Labour's way" in 2011 and look what happened to them after they signed off on austerity.

Changing Ireland is going to mean a serious drop in house prices, higher interest rates, reforming the Civil Service, the health Service etc plus big taxes on wealth.
If I were Mary Lou I wouldn't go into Government now. There is a crash in the works and whoever is in power will own it.