Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/last-chance-save-brexit-even-democracy/

10 Seats to Watch

Ashfield
This Nottinghamshire former mining seat has never voted for a Conservative in a general election. However, following a sharp swing to the Conservatives locally, Labour are defending a majority of just 441 seats, while the sitting Labour MP, Gloria De Piero, is standing down. Labour need to hang on to this strongly pro-Leave seat if they are to have much chance of denying Boris Johnson a majority.

Wrexham
The seat is at the centre of a clutch of crucial marginal seats in the north east of Wales. Although the Conservatives have never won here, it has often been closely contested. The swing to the Tories in 2017 was much smaller than in some other pro-Leave seats, so the constituency could prove a useful bellwether as to whether the Tory lead in the polls is being realised. Local polling suggested the prospects for the party are favourable.

Great Grimsby
This seat may have voted Labour ever since 1945, but it is a hive of Euroscepticism and swung towards the Conservatives in 2017. If the party picks it up this time, the Prime Minister could well be heading for a secure majority. The local Labour MP, Melanie Onn, will be hoping that her decision to vote in favour of Boris Johnson's deal will enable her to hang on to her seat despite the pro-Leave views of most of her constituents.

Workington
The constituency has lent his name to the most widely quoted polling stereotype of this election, 'Workington man' – a traditional working-class older Labour voter who disagrees with his party's stance on immigration and Brexit. Winning the seat would be particularly sweet for Boris Johnson. However, it has never returned a Conservative MP at a general election, while, at nearly 5 per cent, the swing required here for a Tory victory is towards the higher end of what the party is expected to achieve.

Battersea
Unlike many of the marginal Labour marginals in Boris Johnson's sights, this seat on the south side of the Thames voted heavily for Remain, and was captured by Labour from the Conservatives in 2017. If the Conservatives fail to reverse that loss, it could be a sign that whatever advances the party is making in pro-Leave areas, it could be suffering more modest performances in pro-Remain ones that might yet undermine hopes of a Tory majority.

Hastings & Rye
The news on election night in 2017 that the former Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, was struggling to defend this south coast seat was an early indication that Theresa May was unlikely to secure the big majority for which she hoped. In the event Ms Rudd narrowly hung on but has since fallen out with her party and is standing down. If the Tories end up struggling to hold the seat a second time around, it could be a sign that the election is not turning out as the Prime Minister hopes after all.

St Ives
This seat on the toe of Cornwall ought to be a plum target for the Liberal Democrats. The former Liberal Democrat MP, Andrew George, lost last time to his Conservative opponent by just 312 votes and is standing once again. But the seat voted Leave in 2016, while all the increase in Liberal Democrat support since the last election has occurred among Remain voters. It will be a key test of whether the Liberal Democrats are enjoying any kind of revival in the 'Celtic fringe'.

Stirling
Stephen Kerr was one of the dozen newly-elected Tory MPs returned in the wake of a Conservative revival two years ago north of the border. However, his majority of just 148 over the SNP is highly vulnerable to both any downturn in his own party's fortunes or any increase in the nationalist vote. Success for the Tories here would suggest that the Scots Tory revival has begun to put down roots.

Glasgow North East
One of the most deprived seats in the UK, the Labour vote here used to be weighed rather than counted. But in 2015 it fell to the SNP, along with almost every other constituency in Scotland. However, it was one of a half dozen seats that Labour managed to win back last time, though with a majority of just 242 the party still has the SNP breathing down its neck. Defeat for Labour here would signify that the party is still at square one in its attempts to reconnect with its former fiefdoms north of the border.

[RedHand88]

The Tories have drifted on betfair from 1.39 to 1.51 in the last half hour

Whas dat mean?

Means it's less likely the Tories win, though the odds follow the betting so it could mean more people are getting on hung parliament and not actually a voting trend.

[RedHand88]

When Colum and Claire go to westminister and don't stop Brexit for the north will westminister be exposed as a myth for nationalists?

[Applesisapples]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

[playwiththewind1st]

I went out this morning & voted, for the first time in 20 years. Hanna got my vote, the only reason being that I want to see the bake on Little early tomorrow morning, when she gets some manners put on her.

[manfromdelmonte]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/last-chance-save-brexit-even-democracy/

10 Seats to Watch

Ashfield
This Nottinghamshire former mining seat has never voted for a Conservative in a general election. However, following a sharp swing to the Conservatives locally, Labour are defending a majority of just 441 seats, while the sitting Labour MP, Gloria De Piero, is standing down. Labour need to hang on to this strongly pro-Leave seat if they are to have much chance of denying Boris Johnson a majority.

Wrexham
The seat is at the centre of a clutch of crucial marginal seats in the north east of Wales. Although the Conservatives have never won here, it has often been closely contested. The swing to the Tories in 2017 was much smaller than in some other pro-Leave seats, so the constituency could prove a useful bellwether as to whether the Tory lead in the polls is being realised. Local polling suggested the prospects for the party are favourable.

Great Grimsby
This seat may have voted Labour ever since 1945, but it is a hive of Euroscepticism and swung towards the Conservatives in 2017. If the party picks it up this time, the Prime Minister could well be heading for a secure majority. The local Labour MP, Melanie Onn, will be hoping that her decision to vote in favour of Boris Johnson's deal will enable her to hang on to her seat despite the pro-Leave views of most of her constituents.

Workington
The constituency has lent his name to the most widely quoted polling stereotype of this election, 'Workington man' – a traditional working-class older Labour voter who disagrees with his party's stance on immigration and Brexit. Winning the seat would be particularly sweet for Boris Johnson. However, it has never returned a Conservative MP at a general election, while, at nearly 5 per cent, the swing required here for a Tory victory is towards the higher end of what the party is expected to achieve.

Battersea
Unlike many of the marginal Labour marginals in Boris Johnson's sights, this seat on the south side of the Thames voted heavily for Remain, and was captured by Labour from the Conservatives in 2017. If the Conservatives fail to reverse that loss, it could be a sign that whatever advances the party is making in pro-Leave areas, it could be suffering more modest performances in pro-Remain ones that might yet undermine hopes of a Tory majority.

Hastings & Rye
The news on election night in 2017 that the former Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, was struggling to defend this south coast seat was an early indication that Theresa May was unlikely to secure the big majority for which she hoped. In the event Ms Rudd narrowly hung on but has since fallen out with her party and is standing down. If the Tories end up struggling to hold the seat a second time around, it could be a sign that the election is not turning out as the Prime Minister hopes after all.

St Ives
This seat on the toe of Cornwall ought to be a plum target for the Liberal Democrats. The former Liberal Democrat MP, Andrew George, lost last time to his Conservative opponent by just 312 votes and is standing once again. But the seat voted Leave in 2016, while all the increase in Liberal Democrat support since the last election has occurred among Remain voters. It will be a key test of whether the Liberal Democrats are enjoying any kind of revival in the 'Celtic fringe'.

Stirling
Stephen Kerr was one of the dozen newly-elected Tory MPs returned in the wake of a Conservative revival two years ago north of the border. However, his majority of just 148 over the SNP is highly vulnerable to both any downturn in his own party's fortunes or any increase in the nationalist vote. Success for the Tories here would suggest that the Scots Tory revival has begun to put down roots.

Glasgow North East
One of the most deprived seats in the UK, the Labour vote here used to be weighed rather than counted. But in 2015 it fell to the SNP, along with almost every other constituency in Scotland. However, it was one of a half dozen seats that Labour managed to win back last time, though with a majority of just 242 the party still has the SNP breathing down its neck. Defeat for Labour here would signify that the party is still at square one in its attempts to reconnect with its former fiefdoms north of the border.

doesn't mention a lot of the constituencies the Tories are going to lose

[BennyCake]

The Tories have drifted on betfair from 1.39 to 1.51 in the last half hour

Whas dat mean?

They scored 12 points in the second half. Six from frees.

[smelmoth]

I see the Alliance and Lucid Talk had a public spat last night!

I'm in Foyle and am still undecided. The only way I would want Eastwood in is if it is a hung parliament that SDLP may play some small influence in, but it would pain me to lend him my vote, especially if the conservatives win a majority!

What bad thing would he do with your vote?

He might not deliver on what he has promised. It could all be over at 10 o'clock tonight if the tories get a majority, yet he will be sitting on a comfy salary plus expenses for 5 years not delivering what he has promised. A strong Sinn Fein vote working outside Westminister could be more effective than SDLP and irrelevant votes in Westminister.

I know this will read like a playing the man but the conclusions below are inescapable.

Your post is one of the most staggering exhibitions of outright stupidity ever witnessed on this forum.

You propose not voting for candidate A on the basis that votes elsewhere in a democracy might not leave candidate A in a position to deliver on their manifesto. So instead you contemplate voting for someone who doesn't promise to do anything and has an established track record (impressive for one so young) in doing nothing.

Can you outline the achievements of a strong Sinn Fein mandate operating outside Westminster?

[smelmoth]

I see the Alliance and Lucid Talk had a public spat last night!

I'm in Foyle and am still undecided. The only way I would want Eastwood in is if it is a hung parliament that SDLP may play some small influence in, but it would pain me to lend him my vote, especially if the conservatives win a majority!

What bad thing would he do with your vote?

He might not deliver on what he has promised. It could all be over at 10 o'clock tonight if the tories get a majority, yet he will be sitting on a comfy salary plus expenses for 5 years not delivering what he has promised. A strong Sinn Fein vote working outside Westminister could be more effective than SDLP and irrelevant votes in Westminister.

a sinn fein vote, is a wasted vote for Westminster

Not sure I agree. And for all the SDLP years in Westminister, Derry is still an economic backwater!

What a false equivalence if there was ever on! I'm pretty sure the SDLP are well down the list of people to blame for Derry's woes. There are many major reasons that had SFA to do with the SDLP and everyone knows it. It could be argued things would be worse but for them.

Honestly, if you're against Brexit, voting SF in a Westminster election is pointless if there's another nationalist remain option with a better chance of taking the seat. Unionists rarely make tactical voting errors like nationalist do.

I don't doubt it, but it is not the way it is painted listening to Colum who wants me to vote for him so he can "stop Boris and stop brexit". SDLP are all over the place and have been for a long time, they don't know where they stand on a number of issues and are running this campaign aimed at voters like me based on the single promise they can make a big difference by taking their seat. I know there is a slim possibility this may be the case but other than that I wouldn't be considering them.

What difference will SF make?

[yellowcard]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

Slightly premature, lets wait until the votes have been counted. My gut instinct is that Unionists will come out in greater numbers than nationalists since they have made it all about the union and the threat of a border poll. Short term gain once again at the expense of any credible strategic vision from unionists.

Nationalism might not make any gains in terms of seats won or votes recorded but it is a much more positive, outward looking & progressive form of politics than unionism can ever be. The question Unionism will still have to answer the day after the election is, what next?

[trailer]

You just have to mindful not to fall into the trap.

[HiMucker]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

Slightly premature, lets wait until the votes have been counted. My gut instinct is that Unionists will come out in greater numbers than nationalists since they have made it all about the union and the threat of a border poll. Short term gain once again at the expense of any credible strategic vision from unionists.

Nationalism might not make any gains in terms of seats won or votes recorded but it is a much more positive, outward looking & progressive form of politics than unionism can ever be. The question Unionism will still have to answer the day after the election is, what next?

That's a very good point. It might be a bit depressing not seeing the DUP take a hit, but they cant hold back the tide forever.

[seafoid]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

Slightly premature, lets wait until the votes have been counted. My gut instinct is that Unionists will come out in greater numbers than nationalists since they have made it all about the union and the threat of a border poll. Short term gain once again at the expense of any credible strategic vision from unionists.

Nationalism might not make any gains in terms of seats won or votes recorded but it is a much more positive, outward looking & progressive form of politics than unionism can ever be. The question Unionism will still have to answer the day after the election is, what next?

That's a very good point. It might be a bit depressing not seeing the DUP take a hit, but they cant hold back the tide forever.

They may hang on to North Belfast this time but
in the medium term they will lose it

[yellowcard]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

Wouldn't accept that at all. If a border poll is to be won it won't be by SF votes, those are a given. It will be won by convincing the moderate Alliance types and a UI is far from fading in my opinion, in fact it has never been higher on the agenda than it is right now. SF might not like it it but if a UI is to be achieved more quickly then they cannot be seen to be taking sole ownership of the process, it will have to involve more moderates from nationalist civic society and the mainstream parties in the south. 

[johnnycool]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

Wouldn't accept that at all. If a border poll is to be won it won't be by SF votes, those are a given. It will be won by convincing the moderate Alliance types and a UI is far from fading in my opinion, in fact it has never been higher on the agenda than it is right now. SF might not like it it but if a UI is to be achieved more quickly then they cannot be seen to be taking sole ownership of the process, it will have to involve more moderates from nationalist civic society and the mainstream parties in the south.

A UI is still reliant on the DUP to drive those moderate types into voting for a united Ireland by denying any vestiges of Irishness in the wee six.

They can vote strategically for Alliance all they want in a Westminster election (barring SB and NB obviously    )