The Horse racing thread

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

The Hurricane is my only interest thus far. Leaning towards a few relative outsiders in Dodging Bullets for the Supreme, Get me out of here in the World hurdle and For Non Stop in the Ryanair. The panel at the Belfast preview picked out Houblon Des Odeaux for the RSA while Richard Hoilies was very sweet on Poquelin in the Byrne Group. He was also keen on one I like in the festival handicap- Fruity O'Rooney. The whole panel were in agreement on Pont Alexandre's excellent chances.

[harlechman]

Had more ante-post bets this year than most, the best of these would be:

Champagne Fever 25/1 - Supreme
Binocular 25/1 - Champion Hurdle
Taquin Du Seuil 10/1 - Neptune
Unioniste 10/1 - RSA
Rolling Star 14/1 - Triumph

Was on Back In Focus at big prices on Betfair for the RSA but it looks like he's going for the 4 miler now.

Paddy Power did a text bet special with Sprinter, Simonsig and Bobs Worth 10/1 (enhanced from just over 7/1) so I have a few quid on that too.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

The Couch was very sweet on Champagne Fever for the albert Bartlett tonight though apparently the owners favour the supreme. With its bumper pedigree, it might be more of a stayer. Strange that its in the 2 and 3 milers but not the Neptune though Mullins has that one well covered already.

[our_fella]

Have Sprinter Sacre, Quevega and Simonsig in a big stake treble

Then Our Conor, My tent or yours & SDC in a e/w patent

Got SDC to win Hennessy & Gold Cup @ 8/1 before he beat flemenstar in Boylesports!

[bcarrier]

Free money Corals evens about sprinter  £20 max but what the hell

http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-festival/featured_cheltenham_races.php?Even-Money-Sprinter-Sacre-148

[homeofhurling8]

The fourth day and extra races have spoiled a lot of the festival buzz for me. I had a quite successful period landing ante-post punts on the novice race but it's impossible now with targets still up in the air. Bookmakers' prices also seem ridiculously short on some of the races and there'll be far better value around in the mornings next week.

Our Conor at 8s is probably the best value in my ante-post portfolio at the moment. I've Sir Des Champs at 7s and a small bit of evs about the freak in the Champion Chase from before the Tingle Creek. Among my more disappointing ante-post vouchers are Puffin Billy to win any race, Waaheb for the Supreme and Pont Alexandre in the Albert Bartlett. I'm looking forward to getting stuck into the handicaps over the weekend. They're always devilishly difficult but it's the one week of the year when there can be terrific value to be had.

I agree wholeheartedly about the dilution of the festival DH and if Eddie Gillespies successor has his way we will soon be looking at a 5 day festival including the Saturday but having said that i will still be landing in Bristol tomorrow evening giddy as a child on Christmas morning in anticipation
of the weeks festivities.

Whats your take on Hurricane Fly DH and BC ? A lot of lads seem to have him as their banker of the week whereas i cant have him at all, Willie and Paddy are ultra confident but I'm too long dealing with Willie to believe a word he tells me , as much as i like the man and admire him as a trainer, he was just as confident last year and told me personally 40 minutes before the Champion to "have what you like on him " of course following the defeat the stories that he was never right all year started to appear but that certainly wasn't what the team were saying before the race to their owners and it also wasn't what his time figures indicated either.

I agree Our Conor is bombproof in the triumph but the race is a graveyard for the Irish, Mullins rates Pont Alexandre as potentially the best novice he has ever sent to Cheltenham and is also very sweet on Ballycasey but again i would add the caveat that the information above came from a notoriously unreliable source, Willie himself 

I'm having dinner with the Pipes over the weekend, if i can get senior tipsy enough to reveal their plans i will post them up here, i believe a Cheltenham plot went haywire with Katkeaus defeat at Kempton recently, young Scu certainly wont forget the post race "briefing" with Martin for a while anyway, leaning towards the Jewson with Dynaste when i last spoke to the team although they  reckon he will win whichever race he turns up in doing handstands !

Not much coming out of Hendersons yard in the way of solid information,as usual, but i do know that at 7/1 they rate Long Run as the each way banker of the year even allowing for the dentists foibles.

[RealSpiritof98]

Just got a txt from reliable source - ''If you want cheltenham money get on pull the pin today in Southwell, wont be beat''

Do what you want with it only passing on the bad luck

[Donnellys Hollow]

I agree wholeheartedly about the dilution of the festival DH and if Eddie Gillespies successor has his way we will soon be looking at a 5 day festival including the Saturday but having said that i will still be landing in Bristol tomorrow evening giddy as a child on Christmas morning in anticipation
of the weeks festivities.

Whats your take on Hurricane Fly DH and BC ? A lot of lads seem to have him as their banker of the week whereas i cant have him at all, Willie and Paddy are ultra confident but I'm too long dealing with Willie to believe a word he tells me , as much as i like the man and admire him as a trainer, he was just as confident last year and told me personally 40 minutes before the Champion to "have what you like on him " of course following the defeat the stories that he was never right all year started to appear but that certainly wasn't what the team were saying before the race to their owners and it also wasn't what his time figures indicated either.

I agree Our Conor is bombproof in the triumph but the race is a graveyard for the Irish, Mullins rates Pont Alexandre as potentially the best novice he has ever sent to Cheltenham and is also very sweet on Ballycasey but again i would add the caveat that the information above came from a notoriously unreliable source, Willie himself 

I'm having dinner with the Pipes over the weekend, if i can get senior tipsy enough to reveal their plans i will post them up here, i believe a Cheltenham plot went haywire with Katkeaus defeat at Kempton recently, young Scu certainly wont forget the post race "briefing" with Martin for a while anyway, leaning towards the Jewson with Dynaste when i last spoke to the team although they  reckon he will win whichever race he turns up in doing handstands !

Not much coming out of Hendersons yard in the way of solid information,as usual, but i do know that at 7/1 they rate Long Run as the each way banker of the year even allowing for the dentists foibles.

I think Hurricane Fly has the most natural ability of any horse in the Champion Hurdle and I don't believe he was at his best last year. If he runs up to his best form I think he beats this lot every day of the week but whether he is back to his best is anyone's guess. He should be beating the likes of Thousand Stars, Binocular and Unaccompanied if he has serious aspirations of regaining his title. I think 2/1 is about right. You're taking a bit on trust but the opposition have plenty of question marks over them too. Rock On Ruby may have been flattered last year and is clearly no superstar on his form this season. Zarkandar lacks a gear and will struggle to lie up handy if they go any sort of gallop. All his best form is on the stiffer new course. Grandouet is talented but fragile. He'll travel as well as anything but I don't think there's a lot more too him. He looks a bit soft to my eyes.

There's a lot of short priced novices this year and I think I'll take most of them on. I'm not convinced by either of the McManus pair in the Supreme. I'd have reservations about both of them getting up the hill so I don't think they're value at very short prices. Un Atout looks a solid e/w bet. Pont Alexandre has an engine but I think he's in the wrong race. He would win the Albert Bartlett easily but I'd worry about him getting done for toe over the shorter trip. I'd have the opposite take on Dynaste. He has plenty of speed and should run in the Jewson but the Sun Alliance looks weak this year so he might be good enough anyway. I think Simonsig will win the Arkle but 4/6 about him doesn't appeal. He jumped like a goat when he was a p2p horse and I'd worry that Overturn might just force him into an error.

First Lieutenant is a horse I have always adored and I hope he goes in the Ryanair. I don't think any of the English horses will trouble him in that. He would bully the likes of Cue Card and Menorah.

[homeofhurling8]

First Lieutenant is the banker of the meeting in the Ryanair as long as the O'Learys ignore Mouse and head there instead of the Gold cup, i know mouse has told the O'Learys that he would bet the yard on First Lieutenant beating Sir Des Champs in the Gold cup on good ground, whether he would beat Bobs Worth is another matter.

Like yourself i cant have My tent or yours in the supreme, stats all against him and i reckon the books will be out to get him like they got Darlan, Dunguib, cousin Vinnie et al.

I'm told Edeymi is Gigginstowns best chance of a winner but the trainer puts me off a big bet on him, i would fancy him in the Coral if he gets in, not so much in the Martin Pipe.

I disagree about Simonsig, i think 4/6 is very fair, the horse is a beast, if Sprinter Sacre wasn't around there would be a lot more hype around him imho.

The only thing putting me off laying Hurricane Fly for all I'm worth is the question marks surrounding the other principles in the market, if Darlan was lining up next week it would be a different story, his Champion Hurdle win in 2011 doesn't read that well now with the second and third stayers and nothing else of any note coming out of the race, maybe last year was his true level, i suppose we will know more Next Tuesday.

Anthony Bromley told a couple of our syndicate members that Nicky thinks Binocular beats Grandouet, if that's right then forget about Hendersons team, i like Rock on Ruby but is he really a double Champion hurdler ? 

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

I'm on the Hurricane myself. I'd see Zarkandar as the main threat. HF made my festival in 2011 and its how bullish Mullins is that he wasn't right last year which convinces me that 5/2 is worth a punt.

Agree on the McManus pair in the Supreme, their major form is on soft. As I said earlier in the thread, I'm leaning towards Dodging Bullets, non-bumper form at the festival which is unusual for a novice hurdler and should run well. Have most of the first day fairly clear in my head at this stage, I like a returning former champion so might plump for Sizing Australia in the cross country.

[Donnellys Hollow]

For all that I'm against the two McManus horses, Dodging Bullets is one horse I cannot have. I think he's hugely flattered by that Kempton form. It wouldn't surprise me if Walsh doesn't even ride him especially if the heavens open over the weekend. I also heard Jezki worked up the Old Vic gallop at the Curragh earlier this week and did not impress.

Just on Simonsig, I think the horse has a fantastic engine and I expect he will win and win well but this puts me off steaming in at 4/6: http://www.p2ptv.ie/?tube=102

I just have horrible feeling he might bulldoze through a fence at the wrong time which is game over in an Arkle. There's obviously a lot of water under the bridge since he was running in p2ps but he's yet to meet a decent animal in his two chase starts under rules.

[Sea The Stars]

Dodging Bullets cruised into the last couple of furlongs of the Triumph last year but probably lacked a small bit of experience on what was only his second start over hurdles. He's won at Cheltenham this season. The Kempton run was okay but they were factors against him in that. I wouldn't judge him on that run alone. I think he lacks the ability to be top class but on fairly goodish ground in a big field with a generous pace, he'll run well. It's a strong looking Supreme this year but Dodging Bullets would be the one I'd be leaning towards for the reason that he's proven at Cheltenham and conditions will hopefully be to suit. My Tent or Yours looks special on his Betfair Hurdle form. 

Sticking with Nicholls' horses. I've not seen many horses make their way from the last to the finish line faster than Zarkandar last year. He made up seven or eight lengths on HF in the straight and with all the excuses that's been made about Hurricane Fly, people forget Zarkandar was on anitbiotics leading into last year's race. There's doubts of course the main one being if he'll be able to stick the tempo especially the downhill run before the straight where he lost the race last year. But he's won all his races this year over the minimum trip this season and is 7 out of 8 over 16f - 17f.

There's too many past Cheltenham winners in the race to be taking on the short prices about HF too. 8 horses will line up and 6 of them are past Festival winners. The other 2 Grandouet and Khyber Kim have both placed at the Festival. Be honest I didn't always like the theory that HF didn't get up the hill and to be honest I still don't but a lot of his rivals will relish the drag to the line more than him. He certainly lost ground to the horses around him after the last, last year.

I would agree DH about Simonsig. On all the evidence, he'll win comfortably but a mistake in this race is costly. He wouldn't even have to bulldoze a fence a simple mistake and as you it's game over.

[Sea The Stars]

I would not put anyone off Cinders And Ashes or Countrywide Flame either.

Hardy Eustace won the Neptune in 2003, and ended going off 33/1 for the following season's CH - he won it.
Katchit won the Triumph but got beat twice the following season and his CH claims were dismissed but he went on and won it. 10/1.
Rock On Ruby flew up the hill in the 2011 Neptune - only won a handicap between that and last year's CH - 11/1.
Sublimity was a decent fourth in the Supreme - the following season he won the CH at 16/1.
Punjabi third behind Katchit won it the following season at 22/1 even though he was beaten in his two previous races.

Punters lose the plot altogether talking about runs at Kempton and Newbury and these places yet the evidence is always there at last year's Festival. Not just in the Champion Hurdle but in all races.

Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame - could be a shrewd reverse forecast.

[maddog]

What is the ground forecast to be? There is some amount of rain due in this neck of the woods over the next few days (and there was plenty today) Its to go go cold and dry then during next week

[Sea The Stars]

You won't go wrong if you work off the assumption that it'll be good to soft or something near it, maybe good to soft, soft in places.