The Horse racing thread

[Radda bout yeee]

Who you backing in the national DH?

[AQMP]

I'm on Aigle D'Or and Glam Gerry

[Radda bout yeee]

I'm on Paddy Pub and I don't know why!!!!

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Get me out of Here, Marlay Park (e/w), a double involving Allure of Illusion and Teelin Star with Cross Appeal (e/w) for the National are my route to losing money at Fairyhouse today

[winsamsoon]

giggity giggity does it again Teelin star very dissapointing DH

[Hardy]

I didn't bother posting my outworking of the stats for the Irish National here as Maddog had posted his criteria and because there were too many bunched at the top, but this is what they were - the top 6 had the winner and two placed.

Lion Na Bearnai     24.64
Cross Appeal     24.64
The Last Derby     24.28
Paddy Pub     24.28
Some Target     24.12
Out Now     23.72

In fairness, I wouldn't have been advocating any heavy commitment based on these numbers. As nothing stood out I just decided to pick one for a small punt just for the interest and luckily I went for the winner - 60 on Betfair. Happy days.

Maddog, I hope he came out top of your list and you made some money.

[Donnellys Hollow]

giggity giggity does it again Teelin star very dissapointing DH

Yeah he hung like a gate the whole way round.

[bridge fan]

have to say don cossack is a fair tool 

[maddog]

I didn't bother posting my outworking of the stats for the Irish National here as Maddog had posted his criteria and because there were too many bunched at the top, but this is what they were - the top 6 had the winner and two placed.

Lion Na Bearnai     24.64
Cross Appeal     24.64
The Last Derby     24.28
Paddy Pub     24.28
Some Target     24.12
Out Now     23.72

In fairness, I wouldn't have been advocating any heavy commitment based on these numbers. As nothing stood out I just decided to pick one for a small punt just for the interest and luckily I went for the winner - 60 on Betfair. Happy days.

Maddog, I hope he came out top of your list and you made some money.

No the stats went out the window and i backed 4 commanders, which i dont think was ever mentioned. Ah well, seebass and chicago grey backed for Aintree so will see how that goes.

[Don Johnson]

Wonder what price FINGAL BAY will be now the rain is coming.

[sammymaguire]

Edeymi & Salsify small double today...   

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Any of the Kildare lads have any suggestions as to somewhere fairly affordable to stay in Naas the Friday night of the Punchestown festival? I'm guessing this night gets booked out fairly quickly?

[Hardy]

Stats profiles for a couple of races at Aintree tomorrow:

Foxhunters
Gwanako    27.37
Sheriff Hutton    27.37
Silver Adonis    27.37
My Way de Solzen    27.35
Cloudy Lane    24.31
Fresh Air And Fun    23.97
The Polomoche    23.97
Offshore Account    23.95
Unowatimeen    23.95
Island Life    20.55
Presentandcorrect    20.55
Bow School    19.97
Launde    19.95
Keenan's Future    17.87
Herons well     17.85
Boxer Georg    17.30
Emergency Cover    16.94
Roulez Cool     14.45
Eleazar    14.07
William Butler    14.07
Teddy's Reflection    13.88
Harps Counsel    12.94
Kildonnan     10.65
Sizing America    9.88
Blackstaff    7.04
King Of The Road    3.42


Red Rum Handicap
Song Sung Blue    20.65
De Boitron    20.65
Echo Bob    20.64
Silk Drum    17.80
Tanks For That    17.27
Tara Royal     17.17
Free World    17.04
Kumbeshwar     16.23
Kid Cassidy    16.23
Astracad    16.23
Takeroc    14.42
Edgardo Sol    12.63
Oiseau de Nuit    10.07

[the greatest jockey]

what do these stats take into account hardy. i can see their merit in a huge handicap field like any of the nationals but there's only 13 runners in that handicap tomorrow. For what its worth silk drum won it last year off 5lbs higher so is an obvious danger and free world was going quite while when falling at cheltenham, both about 10-12/1

[Hardy]

Jockey, the stats typically include age, betting, weight, performance over similar distances, etc. Here's a typical example posted by maddog for the Irish National, showing the winners' stats from the last eleven renewals (all eleven winners carried 11-0 or less, etc.):

Irish Grand National Trends Summary:
11/11 - Carried 11-0 or less
10/11 - Aged 9 or younger
10/11 - Ran within the last 2 months
9/11 - Carried 10-5 or less
9/11 - Had won over at least 3m before
7/11 - Won by either a 7 or 8 year-old
3/11 - Won by a UK-based trainer
0/11 - Won by a Willie Mullins-trained horse
0/11 - Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 19/1

I've just devised my own scoring system where I weight the individual stats for relevance and apply a few other filters, which results in a score for each runner.

I use various stats-based betting systems and this is just one of them, applicable to big races where the stats are easily available, so I don't have to work them out for myself. I generally only apply it when it throws up well-priced contenders. I keep records and this one has delivered a few good winners and each way payouts for me over the last few years, including

Three of first four in 2007 Aintree National, including
- winner Silver Birch at 33/1
- Philson Run placed at 100/1
Niche Market won Irish National 2009 at 33/1
Merigo (18/1) and Gone To Lunch (15/2), 1st and 2nd in the Scottish National 2010
Poker De Sivola (11/1) Bet365 Gold Cup 2011
Margot Did (20/1) Nunthorpe Stakes, York August 2011
Ermyn Lodge 2nd in Caesarewitch, 2011 at 16/1
Le Beau Bai won Welsh National 2011 at 10/1
Eton Forever placed in 2012 Lincoln at 10/1
Lion Na Bearnai (winner, 33/1 returned at 71 on Betfair SP) and Paddy Pub (placed 20/1) Irish national 2012

As regards the relevance of stats in a small field, while a small field does not necessarily negate the statistics, obviously they should be applied with judgement - some stats are clearly not relevant; other times the stats don't really separate the runners; and whatever the stats say, it would be foolish to oppose Big Buck's today, I think.