£terling and $ollar crashing against the €uro

Started by Donagh, January 10, 2008, 05:08:29 PM

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Rois

Quote from: Rav67 on January 11, 2008, 03:52:49 PM

It's hardly all good news for people north of the border!  Fair enough it will help exports, but what about ordinary folk for whom the price of travelling abroad or even down south will be shocking expensive, not to mention probable inflation at home due to the increased price of imports.

Agreed - a recent ski trip to Chamonix cost me a lot more than I'd bargained for!


Donagh

Exactly Rav. I'm estimating at the moment that between these bills and the holiday I'm going to have to stump up an extra two grand on what I would have been paying three or four months ago. Never mind the work I'm already committed to in the south over the next few months and NFL/Championship matches.

the Deel Rover

on the plus side a good time for us boyo's in the south to buy a car up North
Crossmolina Deel Rovers
All Ireland Club Champions 2001

Star Spangler

Quote from: Rois on January 11, 2008, 03:56:17 PM
Quote from: Rav67 on January 11, 2008, 03:52:49 PM

It's hardly all good news for people north of the border!  Fair enough it will help exports, but what about ordinary folk for whom the price of travelling abroad or even down south will be shocking expensive, not to mention probable inflation at home due to the increased price of imports.

Agreed - a recent ski trip to Chamonix cost me a lot more than I'd bargained for!



FFS!  A few fellas missing their skiing trip is hardly going to have a huge impact on NI's economy!!  People losing jobs because their employers are no longer competitive is a different matter entirely!

Rav67

Quote from: Star Spangler on January 11, 2008, 05:22:39 PM
Quote from: Rois on January 11, 2008, 03:56:17 PM
Quote from: Rav67 on January 11, 2008, 03:52:49 PM

It's hardly all good news for people north of the border!  Fair enough it will help exports, but what about ordinary folk for whom the price of travelling abroad or even down south will be shocking expensive, not to mention probable inflation at home due to the increased price of imports.

Agreed - a recent ski trip to Chamonix cost me a lot more than I'd bargained for!



FFS!  A few fellas missing their skiing trip is hardly going to have a huge impact on NI's economy!!  People losing jobs because their employers are no longer competitive is a different matter entirely!

Sure we could just get the reduntant factory workers jobs with Thomas Cook to help with the new backlog of ski holiday bookings!  :D

amallon

Its good for boyos who head south every day for work.  Its like getting a few extra % in your pay packet.  I'd love to see €1 = £1.  Any of you economic wizards care to predict if this recent increase is just a blip or can we expect more equalisation between the two currencies?
Disclaimer: I am responsible for MY comments only.  I don't own this site.

Star Spangler

Quote from: amallon on January 11, 2008, 06:52:29 PM
Its good for boyos who head south every day for work.  Its like getting a few extra % in your pay packet.  I'd love to see €1 = £1.  Any of you economic wizards care to predict if this recent increase is just a blip or can we expect more equalisation between the two currencies?

I'm not sure what you mean by equalisation. Currency equalisation is only when the same amount of money can buy the same thing in the relative economies.  If €1 = £1 that would be far from equal currencies.  In that scenario, the euro would be almost twice as strong as sterling - certainly not equal.

J70

Quote from: Rav67 on January 11, 2008, 03:52:49 PM
Quote from: Star Spangler on January 10, 2008, 08:07:49 PM
Quote from: Donagh on January 10, 2008, 05:08:29 PM
Not that it's been mentioned on any of the news services yet but the great British pound has fallen to 75p to the Euro recently. Normally I would glory in HRM taking a kicking in any sphere except that I'm in the process of booking flights around Central and South America for this summers sojourn with her good self and the carriers I'm using, Air France and Iberia, are pricing their fares in Euro. Have also a number of very substantial Free State invoices to settle soon. So should I hold out as long as I can and wait on the Euro dipping again, or has sterling finally given up the ghost?

It's all about interest rates at the minute.  The Bank of England's decision to leave interest rates where they are has been the main factor in pushing down the value of English money.  It's not likely to come back significantly against the Euro in the short-term.  The strengthening euro is just another nail in the coffin of the Celtic Tiger and will hit our exports signficantly.  Obviously it's good news for the UK economy, and particularly good for Northern ireland.

It's hardly all good news for people north of the border!  Fair enough it will help exports, but what about ordinary folk for whom the price of travelling abroad or even down south will be shocking expensive, not to mention probable inflation at home due to the increased price of imports.

But the Brits will take a kicking too, so its worth it. ::)

Fear ón Srath Bán

#23
Quote from: Donagh on January 10, 2008, 05:08:29 PM
So should I hold out as long as I can and wait on the Euro dipping again, or has sterling finally given up the ghost?

Sterling is (still) seriously overvalued in respect of the Euro, and has a long way to fall yet until it reaches anything like an exchange equilibrium in the money markets*. So, you could be waiting a long time Donagh, I'd say.

* Respective interest rate fluctuations notwithstanding.
Carlsberg don't do Gombeenocracies, but by jaysus if they did...

deiseach

Settle those bills ASAP, Donagh. The only direction the euro is heading at the moment is up. I've still got a loan outstanding in the UK and the recent rise of the euro has shaved several percentage points off the repayments, which is great news. As for the economic impact, it's swings and roundabouts. Those who export to the UK are in big trouble but people who consume imports from the UK are going to save a mint which will push down inflation. The rise of the euro is certainly not the end of the Celtic Tiger - it went long before this.

FermGael

Living in fermanagh i have long been use to making good saving on Diesel by heading 10 miles to either Blacklion or Swad or Ballyconnell (although they are a good 4 or 5 cent a litre dearer than in other parts of the South) 
What will happen to the border diesel stations who get most of their trade from the north if the Euro continues to rise?? 
Wanted.  Forwards to take frees.
Not fussy.  Any sort of ability will be considered

FL/MAYO

Quote from: FermGael on January 12, 2008, 05:44:14 PM
Living in fermanagh i have long been use to making good saving on Diesel by heading 10 miles to either Blacklion or Swad or Ballyconnell (although they are a good 4 or 5 cent a litre dearer than in other parts of the South) 
What will happen to the border diesel stations who get most of their trade from the north if the Euro continues to rise?? 

I remember back in the 70's all the petrol stations in the southern border towns were closed because petrol was so much cheaper in the North, now the cars are going in the opposite direction. If sterling continues to weaken you might see new petrol stations opening on the Nortern side again, every dog has his day I suppose.

armaghniac

I wouldn't worry too much about the owners of filling stations in Muff, Omeath etc. A substantial part of the price of fuel is based on the price of oil, this will obviously adjust to come down in Euros and go up in Sterling. 
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

FL/MAYO

Quote from: armaghniac on January 12, 2008, 06:20:20 PM
I wouldn't worry too much about the owners of filling stations in Muff, Omeath etc. A substantial part of the price of fuel is based on the price of oil, this will obviously adjust to come down in Euros and go up in Sterling. 

Sterling would want to weaken against the dollar for this to happen.

armaghniac

QuoteSterling would want to weaken against the dollar for this to happen.

Whether or not sterling actually weakens against the dollar, fuel will become cheaper in the south relative to the North if  exchange rates change to reduce the value of sterling against the Euro. As there is also a duty element, and other costs this will not fully cancel out the effect of the exchange rate changes to the customer, but will reduce their effect.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B