Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[Rossfan]

80% pay rises, 32 hour working weeks, Brexit will be great.....Tooth fairy,.....

[blewuporstuffed]

Drinks his tea with the teabag still in it

Thats the worst cup of tea ever

[APM]

The bit that no-one is talking about here is what happens to wages in the broader economy, when unskilled workers in McDonalds get a 80% pay rise in 2019.   

Firstly, supervisors and managers in McDonalds, will not tolerate earning less than an unskilled colleague. Management recognise this and maintain existing wage differentials with corresponding pay rises for workers in all parts of the business.  And if I'm on £15 per hour as a manager, and I see unskilled colleagues now getting the same wage, I also want an 80% uplift to maintain the differential that was previously there.  So I'll be looking for an extra £12.40 / hour. 

Then companies in the same sector have to start competing aggressively on wages to ensure that all of their staff don't leave to go to McDonalds.  In a short space of time, the standard hourly wage for unskilled workers in the catering and hospitality sector is £15.

The catering sector will become more attractive for a time, as people working in other low / semi-skilled jobs, decide to move into that sector, meaning that other industry sectors (retail, manufacturing etc) start to up their game.  Wages start to rise across the board. 

Lower-skilled workers on £15/hour start to think about taking out loans and mortgages to get a good car, buy a house.  House prices rise. 

Meanwhile, retailers, foodservice, manufacturers start to increase prices as a result of higher costs, but also due to the fact that there is increased demand in the economy due to the extra spending power. 

Inflation starts to rise quite fast

Bank of England puts up interest rates

Inflation has eroded away the increased wages

Higher interest rates mean that borrowers are now struggling to pay back loans on variable rates

Minimum wage workers are back where they started, only saddled with debt. 

Is anyone better off? Is there anything sustainable about this.

Higher interest rates are guaranteed
So is a property crash
Longer term most people will be better off if the rich are taxed for the benefit of the wider society.

I don't disagree with any of that.  But it doesn't take away from the point that I'm making that this kind of stuff is for the fairies.  There might be immediate gratification for anyone on the min wage getting a 80% pay rise with a short honeymoon period.  But it won't last because whatever about the salary in pounds and pence, a wage - price spiral will erode it away and leave them back where they started, except potentially with more debt and a lot of frustration. 

To me the answer lies in a fairer tax system.  The large companies should be paying their corporation tax and high private sector earners should be taxed appropriately. 

However, everyone should be paying their taxes and there are many working in the black economy and lots of self-employed, paying only some of the tax they should be paying.  These people may be living very comfortable lifestyles, while their neighbours may be working full time on PAYE and wondering why it is that they are the only one in the neighbourhood who can't afford two holidays in the year and an SUV.  In many cases, people's incomes don't reflect their aspirations (and its good for people to have high aspirations) and that is a problem in today's society.  Keeping up with the Jones' is a bit of an affliction. 

Everyone should be paying their fair share of tax! Those of modest means and the wealthy.

[seafoid]

The bit that no-one is talking about here is what happens to wages in the broader economy, when unskilled workers in McDonalds get a 80% pay rise in 2019.   

Firstly, supervisors and managers in McDonalds, will not tolerate earning less than an unskilled colleague. Management recognise this and maintain existing wage differentials with corresponding pay rises for workers in all parts of the business.  And if I'm on £15 per hour as a manager, and I see unskilled colleagues now getting the same wage, I also want an 80% uplift to maintain the differential that was previously there.  So I'll be looking for an extra £12.40 / hour. 

Then companies in the same sector have to start competing aggressively on wages to ensure that all of their staff don't leave to go to McDonalds.  In a short space of time, the standard hourly wage for unskilled workers in the catering and hospitality sector is £15.

The catering sector will become more attractive for a time, as people working in other low / semi-skilled jobs, decide to move into that sector, meaning that other industry sectors (retail, manufacturing etc) start to up their game.  Wages start to rise across the board. 

Lower-skilled workers on £15/hour start to think about taking out loans and mortgages to get a good car, buy a house.  House prices rise. 

Meanwhile, retailers, foodservice, manufacturers start to increase prices as a result of higher costs, but also due to the fact that there is increased demand in the economy due to the extra spending power. 

Inflation starts to rise quite fast

Bank of England puts up interest rates

Inflation has eroded away the increased wages

Higher interest rates mean that borrowers are now struggling to pay back loans on variable rates

Minimum wage workers are back where they started, only saddled with debt. 

Is anyone better off? Is there anything sustainable about this.

Higher interest rates are guaranteed
So is a property crash
Longer term most people will be better off if the rich are taxed for the benefit of the wider society.

I don't disagree with any of that.  But it doesn't take away from the point that I'm making that this kind of stuff is for the fairies.  There might be immediate gratification for anyone on the min wage getting a 80% pay rise with a short honeymoon period.  But it won't last because whatever about the salary in pounds and pence, a wage - price spiral will erode it away and leave them back where they started, except potentially with more debt and a lot of frustration. 

To me the answer lies in a fairer tax system.  The large companies should be paying their corporation tax and high private sector earners should be taxed appropriately. 

However, everyone should be paying their taxes and there are many working in the black economy and lots of self-employed, paying only some of the tax they should be paying.  These people may be living very comfortable lifestyles, while their neighbours may be working full time on PAYE and wondering why it is that they are the only one in the neighbourhood who can't afford two holidays in the year and an SUV.  In many cases, people's incomes don't reflect their aspirations and that is a problem in today's society.  Keeping up with the Jones' is a bit of an affliction. 

Everyone should be paying their fair share of tax! Those of modest means and the wealthy.

They should but this is much bigger than tax collection.
There is going to be massive change and certain people are going to lose out.
The early 1980s were the same

[general_lee]

If McDonalds raise their wages. What makes you think they'll start employing more staff?

[BennyCake]

Anyone who can pay less tax, will. Dont the government get enough off ordinary people? There are ways around it, just like there are for big companies. So if they don t pay, why should ordinary folk? Look after yourself, I say.

[trailer]

One issue is the amount of tax that the government waste. My tax bill between corporation, employers and my own tax liability is off the scale and then you hear about the sick leave in the civil service or some project that got the go ahead ate up a couple of million and then was abandoned. And yet our public services are an absolute mess.

[Maroon Manc]

2 million people in the UK employed on the minimum wage, don't know how many of those are on full time hours though.

I assume most will be on some sort of state support such as Universal Credit or tax credits

Hard to know without having more access to figures, I'm assuming that includes a lot of part time workers who don't work the required 30 hours a week or are under 25 which you need to claim. If you work a full 37.5 hours week on minimum wage you'd clear £1200 a month which even in a city like Manchester would allow you to live a decent standard of living albeit not a great one if you're a single person; Obviously for anyone with kids thats a completely different matter.

[seafoid]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1193618506975236096

[BennyHarp]

The full list of candidates standing in the 2019 General Election has been announced. There are 102 candidates, which is down from 109 standing in the 2017 General Election.

The candidates are arranged in alphabetical order, by surname

Belfast East
Naomi Long (Alliance)
Carl McClean (UUP)
Gavin Robinson (DUP)

Belfast North
Nigel Dodds (DUP)
John Finucane (Sinn Féin)
Nuala McAllister (Alliance)

Belfast South
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance)
Claire Hanna (SDLP)
Michael Henderson (UUP)
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP)
Chris McHugh (Aontú)

Belfast West
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit)
Monica Digney (Aontú)
Paul Doherty (SDLP)
Donnamarie Higgins (Alliance)
Paul Maskey (Sinn Féin)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP)

East Antrim
Steve Aiken (UUP)
Danny Donnelly (Alliance)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin)
Angela Mulholland (SDLP)
Philip Randle (Green Party)
Aaron Rankin (NI Conservative Party)
Sammy Wilson (DUP)

East Londonderry
Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Richard Holmes (UUP)
Cara Hunter (SDLP)
Chris McCaw (Alliance)
Seán McNicholl (Aontú)
Dermot Nicholl (Sinn Féin)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Matthew Beaumont (Alliance)
Tom Elliott (UUP)
Adam Gannon (SDLP)
Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin)
Caroline Wheeler (Independent Labour)

Foyle
Colum Eastwood (SDLP)
Rachael Ferguson (Alliance)
Darren Guy (UUP)
Shaun Harkin (People Before Profit)
Elisha McCallion (Sinn Féin)
Anne McCloskey (Aontú)
Gary Middleton (DUP)

Lagan Valley
Robbie Butler (UUP)
Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)
Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance)
Ally Haydock (SDLP)
Gary Hynds (NI Conservative Party)
Alan Love (UKIP)
Gary McCleave (Sinn Féin)

Mid Ulster
Mel Boyle (Alliance)
Keith Buchanan (DUP)
Denise Johnston (SDLP)
Francie Molloy (Sinn Féin)
Conor Rafferty (Independent)
Neil Richardson (UUP)

Newry and Armagh
Mickey Brady (Sinn Féin)
Pete Byrne (SDLP)
Jackie Coade (Alliance)
William Irvin (DUP)
Martin Kelly (Aontú)
Sam Nicholson (UUP)

North Antrim
Margaret McKillop (SDLP)
Cara McShane (Sinn Féin)
Patricia O'Lynn (Alliance)
Ian Paisley (DUP)
Stephen Palmer (Independent)
Robin Swann (UUP)

North Down
Alan Chambers (UUP)
Alex Easton (DUP)
Stephen Farry (Alliance)
Matthew Robinson (NI Conservative Party)

South Antrim
John Blair (Alliance)
Paul Girvan (DUP)
Declan Kearney (Sinn Féin)
Danny Kinahan (UUP)
Roisin Lynch (SDLP)

South Down
Paul Brady (Aontú)
Patrick Brown (Alliance)
Glyn Hanna (DUP)
Chris Hazzard (Sinn Féin)
Jill McAuley (UUP)
Michael Savage (SDLP)

Strangford
Grant Abraham (NI Conservative Party)
Kellie Armstrong (Alliance)
Joe Boyle (SDLP)
Ryan Carlin (Sinn Féin)
Maurice McCartney (Green Party)
Jim Shannon (DUP)
Philip Geoffrey (UUP)
Robert Stephenson (UKIP)

Upper Bann
Doug Beattie (UUP)
Delores Kelly (SDLP)
Carla Lockhart (DUP)
John O'Dowd (Sinn Féin)
Eóin Tennyson (Alliance)

West Tyrone
Órfhlaith Begley (Sinn Féin)
Thomas Buchanan (DUP)
Stephen Donnelly (Alliance)
Susan Glass (Green Party)
James Hope (Aontú)
Daniel McCrossan (SDLP)
Andy McKane (UUP)

[screenexile]

Foyle and S Belfast to SDLP
N Down to DUP

I think fear is being whipped up all over by Unionists and they'll come out in droves to secure N and E Belfast to leave the DUP at the same amount of seats and Sinn Fein to lose one in Foyle.

Yeah they'll lose S Belfast but that was only a bonus from last time they'll never win it again.

[playwiththewind1st]

Aye....DUP win North Down & then they parachute their South Belfast loser back into Stormont, where she will be near her beloved husband.

[armaghniac]

Poll, taken before Hermon withdrew. With perhaps one-third of her vote going to Alliance, unionists are only at about 40% in total even if they do turn out. 

Alliance Party    15%
DUP    26%
Green Party    1%
I prefer not to say    0%
None - I plan not to vote/I will spoil my vote    2%
"Other eg Independents, NI Cons, Workers Party etc. "   3%
People Before Profit (PBP)    1%
SDLP    13%
Sinn Fein    22%
Sylvia Hermon - Independent (North Down only)    3%
TUV    1%
Undecided - But plan to vote/Prefer not to say    5%
UUP    8%

[yellowcard]

Foyle and S Belfast to SDLP
N Down to DUP

I think fear is being whipped up all over by Unionists and they'll come out in droves to secure N and E Belfast to leave the DUP at the same amount of seats and Sinn Fein to lose one in Foyle.

Yeah they'll lose S Belfast but that was only a bonus from last time they'll never win it again.

Think North Belfast will be really close, too close to call in fact. Dodds started out as favourite but Finucane has played a wily game so far by largely staying out of the green v orange and making it about the DUPs record on Brexit. The DUP in the other hand have beat the Lambeg drum and played to a loyalist base.

[red hander]

Aye....DUP win North Down & then they parachute their South Belfast loser back into Stormont, where she will be near her beloved husband.

Doesn't matter, Stormont is finished, and so is the DUP bike. Paisley will have to find somebody else to hang out of in Westminster. Pity Kate Hoey is gone, she'd have been right up his street, the odious crone.