A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[Milltown Row2]

Jesus, it sounds grim up North

[seafoid]

If the DUP had any cop on they would start looking at a better economic model for NI with less waste of human potential. There doesn't necessarily have to be a united Ireland but there does have to be change

Why on earth would they do this. Having a big subsidy is preventing discussion of a UI.

If the Tories win and they go through with no deal there will be food riots in England
The £9bn assumes business as usual.

[Owen Brannigan]

Update on current statistics:



Not much credibility in calling for a border poll based the last general election results with the unionist vote reawakened by the previous result in the assembly election.  It would just be a form of agitation.

A border poll would result in an increased turnout but it would not significantly change the situation because as many sleeping unionists would turnout, particularly in the loyalist community, as non-voting nationalists.

In particular, the figures above would assume that all SDLP voters would opt for a UI but this would be far from a certainty.

There is a warning for SF that a resurgent unionist vote could make a big difference to the current assembly position of the party if the DUP were to ask their partners in the UK government for a new assembly ballot.  The SF vote has maxed out in the last election as they were able to tap into SDLP vote and sleeping nationalist voters in South Down, FST and North Belfast.



Note that the SDLP vote held up even though they lost their seats but the APNI had a bad election as their unionist voters shifted allegiance. 

[armaghniac]

If they are voting for a Nationalist party the it is reasonable to have a poll on that basis. But nobody will vote for a UI unless there is a plan, including many SF voters who are wedded to public expenditure not freeing the country.

[Rossfan]

No point sitting back waiting for the demographic to kick in. A lot of those will become apolitical as they become bored if all they hear is SF chanting "Border poll now" ad infinitum........

A plan and a vision please.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Update on current statistics:



Not much credibility in calling for a border poll based the last general election results with the unionist vote reawakened by the previous result in the assembly election.  It would just be a form of agitation.

A border poll would result in an increased turnout but it would not significantly change the situation because as many sleeping unionists would turnout, particularly in the loyalist community, as non-voting nationalists.

In particular, the figures above would assume that all SDLP voters would opt for a UI but this would be far from a certainty.

There is a warning for SF that a resurgent unionist vote could make a big difference to the current assembly position of the party if the DUP were to ask their partners in the UK government for a new assembly ballot.  The SF vote has maxed out in the last election as they were able to tap into SDLP vote and sleeping nationalist voters in South Down, FST and North Belfast.



Note that the SDLP vote held up even though they lost their seats but the APNI had a bad election as their unionist voters shifted allegiance.

The pbp did get votes in the 2017 GE not many but all the same so those figures need double checking

[Owen Brannigan]

Update on current statistics:



Not much credibility in calling for a border poll based the last general election results with the unionist vote reawakened by the previous result in the assembly election.  It would just be a form of agitation.

A border poll would result in an increased turnout but it would not significantly change the situation because as many sleeping unionists would turnout, particularly in the loyalist community, as non-voting nationalists.

In particular, the figures above would assume that all SDLP voters would opt for a UI but this would be far from a certainty.

There is a warning for SF that a resurgent unionist vote could make a big difference to the current assembly position of the party if the DUP were to ask their partners in the UK government for a new assembly ballot.  The SF vote has maxed out in the last election as they were able to tap into SDLP vote and sleeping nationalist voters in South Down, FST and North Belfast.



Note that the SDLP vote held up even though they lost their seats but the APNI had a bad election as their unionist voters shifted allegiance.

The pbp did get votes in the 2017 GE not many but all the same so those figures need double checking

Go right ahead.  As Hardy requested referencing on another thread.  I used Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election,_2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election,_2017
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/northern_ireland

So, I welcome your double checking.  I took the Others column from BBC as Sylvia Hermon. Feel free to calculate the PBP results and recalculate the current difference between Nationalist/Republican and Unionist votes.  It will still result in demanding a border poll now as nothing more than agitation for its own sake.

[seafoid]

It doesn't matter what happens this year. The demographics do not favour the Unionists. Nothing can be guaranteed by them.

[Owen Brannigan]

It doesn't matter what happens this year. The demographics do not favour the Unionists. Nothing can be guaranteed by them.

That's not news but the demographic effect will take many years to affect the voting dynamic and until it can be shown that there is a real possibility that a border poll would produce a result in favour of a UI, there is no point in calling for a border poll.  Even with the changing demographic at the lower ages, the voting population change in terms of religion will take many years because the population is growing older as people live longer.  In addition, religious affiliation will not determine the result of a border poll.  The key statistic from above will be the number making up the middle ground and the number of those currently voting SDLP who are actually nationalists who really want a UI.

[Owen Brannigan]

Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2016 survey was carried out between 12th September 2016 and 22nd December 2016.



70% of SDLP voters said they were not in favour of a united Ireland.

Support for a united Ireland amongst Alliance voters was 21% in 2016, compared with 12% in 2015 and 8% in 2014.

[armaghniac]

These surveys are meaningless. No rational person can be in favour of a United Ireland without a plan. People vote for the SDLP to have such a plan produced.

[seafoid]

These surveys are meaningless. No rational person can be in favour of a United Ireland without a plan. People vote for the SDLP to have such a plan produced.

Adlai Stevenson was Democratic candidate in the 1952 presidential election. He was told he would have the support of all thinking people. "Yes, but I need a majority".

[T Fearon]

It also said 23% of Sinn Fein voters would not vote in favour of a United Ireland.

There is no plan for a Unitec Ireland,because it is not desired North or South.So the only viable options are settle down under British Rule or develop a plan for Northern Irish Independence

[Avondhu star]

It also said 23% of Sinn Fein voters would not vote in favour of a United Ireland.

There is no plan for a Unitec Ireland,because it is not desired North or South.So the only viable options are settle down under British Rule or develop a plan for Northern Irish Independence

Why not a confederation with Scotland? With the chip each of them have on their shoulder the situation would be evenly balanced.

[armaghniac]

It also said 23% of Sinn Fein voters would not vote in favour of a United Ireland.

There is no plan for a Unitec Ireland,because it is not desired North or South.So the only viable options are settle down under British Rule or develop a plan for Northern Irish Independence

Every poll shows a majority for a UI in the south and even the data you purposes suggests that at least three quarters of SF voters in the 6 counties are in favour. The proportion in favour of an independent NI is a about the same as those who prefer football in Kilkenny.

We haven't been at the plan stage, but the demographics continue to move and this Brexit thing will run and run to destabilise the status quo.