Brexit.

[five points]

Don't believe it for a second.

So many times we've heard this sort of chat - "a deal has been done", only for it to be scuppered at the last minute.

One thing you can pretty much guarantee - there are more twists left in this story yet.

Like GJL and balladmaker above, I was chatting to someone yesterday and we both agreed a deal is done. EU and UK are stringing it out until the budget is done and then throw the DUP under the bus. And yes, the DUP know it. You can tell by their body language in recent days.

As for your summation Franko about a deal being done and scuppered at the last minute. Teresa and the EU tried to slip it pass the DUP last December in the early hours of the morning. This time they have a tactic and the DUP are caught.

Brexit is happening, but the hard border is shifting from Ireland to the Irish Sea.

That's the end of Theresa May as Tory leader and PM so. And the end of their government.

[ziggysego]

Don't believe it for a second.

So many times we've heard this sort of chat - "a deal has been done", only for it to be scuppered at the last minute.

One thing you can pretty much guarantee - there are more twists left in this story yet.

Like GJL and balladmaker above, I was chatting to someone yesterday and we both agreed a deal is done. EU and UK are stringing it out until the budget is done and then throw the DUP under the bus. And yes, the DUP know it. You can tell by their body language in recent days.

As for your summation Franko about a deal being done and scuppered at the last minute. Teresa and the EU tried to slip it pass the DUP last December in the early hours of the morning. This time they have a tactic and the DUP are caught.

Brexit is happening, but the hard border is shifting from Ireland to the Irish Sea.

That's the end of Theresa May as Tory leader and PM so. And the end of their government.

Make no difference if Theresa, unless the entire government does. Fingers crossed.

[seafoid]

The Telegraph has been rabidly pro Brexit since the referendum. Hopelessly optimistic, viciously partisan.
Today one of their top columnists tells businesses to get ready for a "no deal" which comes with free chaos.
I never saw a paper betray its readers in such a fashion before


An awful lot of businesses prefer to pull out.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/15/no-deal-brexit-looms-time-businesses-prepared-fast/

[five points]

Make no difference if Theresa, unless the entire government does. Fingers crossed.

They will fall without DUP support though. Not on Brexit, but on the next matter of substance upon which Labour and the smaller parties can unite.

And the Tories will face a nasty backlash from their core support for dishonouring the Brexit mandate.

I don't see them being stupid enough to unleash that.

[seafoid]

Make no difference if Theresa, unless the entire government does. Fingers crossed.

They will fall without DUP support though. Not on Brexit, but on the next matter of substance upon which Labour and the smaller parties can unite.

And the Tories will face a nasty backlash from their core support for dishonouring the Brexit mandate.

I don't see them being stupid enough to unleash that.

Brexit was sold on lies.
The Brexit heads want no deal, no labour rights, no environmental standards. Nobody voted for that

[five points]

Brexit was sold on lies.
The Brexit heads want no deal, no labour rights, no environmental standards. Nobody voted for that

Quite the irony there. 

[mouview]

Don't believe it for a second.

So many times we've heard this sort of chat - "a deal has been done", only for it to be scuppered at the last minute.

One thing you can pretty much guarantee - there are more twists left in this story yet.

Like GJL and balladmaker above, I was chatting to someone yesterday and we both agreed a deal is done. EU and UK are stringing it out until the budget is done and then throw the DUP under the bus. And yes, the DUP know it. You can tell by their body language in recent days.

As for your summation Franko about a deal being done and scuppered at the last minute. Teresa and the EU tried to slip it pass the DUP last December in the early hours of the morning. This time they have a tactic and the DUP are caught.

Brexit is happening, but the hard border is shifting from Ireland to the Irish Sea.

Find this impossible to believe. Even if a deal was fait accompli by May/EU, they'd never sell it through Westminster. In stages of most likely outcomes, I think it'll be

a)  No-deal Brexit on March 29th

b)  Brexit plan defeated in commons by Xmas
    i)  New Tory leader/PM and General election
   ii)  Extension to transition period and new (Corbyn-led?) government Brexit negotiations
   iii)  If Corbyn-led, BINO to be passed trough commons

c)  No Brexit on March 29th
    i)  Extension of transition period
    ii)  New Tory leader/PM (probably pro-Brexit)
    iii)  General election
    iv)  Another referendum

d)  A second Scottish independence referendum is a more distant possibility but could come back on to the agenda in the unlikely event Northern Ireland gets a special deal

I just cannot see how it's possible at this point in time how a soft-Brexit / maintaining free trade, customs union event can be carried. Too much opposition on all sides to it.

Mind you, I want to be there when the DUPes find out there'll be a border down the Irish sea. 

[seafoid]

This is really sad. Timmermans is Dutch. The EU side care about what Brexit might mean for Brits and people in the North. The Brexit heads including the DUP  do not.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/oct/16/brexit-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-as-eu-says-no-deal-more-likely-than-ever-before-politics-live
Timmermans said:
We are in the middle of a very, very delicate process. The only thing I can assure you is that everyone is doing their utmost to try and do as little harm as possible and to try and find a solution for the issues that have not been solved yet.

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/oct/16/brexit-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-as-eu-says-no-deal-more-likely-than-ever-before-politics-live

[May] said we have made progress on a huge number of issues in the negotiations but there remain sticking points in two key areas. The PM said it is not possible for her or any UK prime minister to sign up to an agreement that would lead to a customs border down the Irish Sea. She said we also need to ensure that we do not have a situation where the UK can be kept indefinitely in the backstop against our will ...
The cabinet strongly supported the prime minister over the importance of maintaining the integrity of the union. The cabinet also agreed that we must be able to ensure that we cannot be kept in the backstop arrangement indefinitely.
The PM said there will no doubt be challenging moments ahead. That is in the nature of negotiations. She said she is committed to securing a Brexit that delivers on the referendum result, safeguards jobs and security and which preserves our union.


lisa o'carroll @lisaocarroll



1/ Irish ambassador to the UK accuses Theresa May of "backsliding" on her firm commitment last December to include a backstop solution in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Told British Academy it was "very concerning" to hear some say a backstop was not necessary.
Replying to @lisaocarroll
2/ Adrian O'Neill said it was a "self-serving argument" of Brexiters to say Backstop was "an irrelevant distraction
hindering the achievement of a clean break Brexit and
frustrating the achievement of the grand vision of a
free-trading Global Britain"
3/" Such arguments are of course entirely self-serving –
intended to minimise or entirely dismiss the need for a
robust solution to the border problem."

[WT4E]

Is it not the case that if the proposed deal went through against the wishes of the DUP that the North would be come one of the best places in the world to do business?

And in turn then this could turn middle of the road nationalists to vote to stay in UK in a unity poll cause of the economic advantages?

Or am I reading it wrong?

[armaghniac]

I just cannot see how it's possible at this point in time how a soft-Brexit / maintaining free trade, customs union event can be carried. Too much opposition on all sides to it.

Too much opposition, yet all recent polls in Britain show a (narrow) majority in favour of remaining in the EU and another 10% would be happy to leave and have a Norway deal.
The majority want this, why does the political system not deliver it?

[imtommygunn]

There are too many games going on between May trying to prove she is strong, Boris making a play for leadership and then that muppet Foster wading in too.

[seafoid]

I just cannot see how it's possible at this point in time how a soft-Brexit / maintaining free trade, customs union event can be carried. Too much opposition on all sides to it.

Too much opposition, yet all recent polls in Britain show a (narrow) majority in favour of remaining in the EU and another 10% would be happy to leave and have a Norway deal.
The majority want this, why does the political system not deliver it?

2 dogs in the manger. The Tories failed to win a majority and are dependent on the far right Brexit heads plus the DUP for a majority.
The party whip system is also relevant. There are enough votes between Tory remainers and Labour to prevent a no deal scenario

[Smokin Joe]

For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

[omaghjoe]

I seem to remember sterling strengthening after polls closed on brexit night too (apparently on the back of some private poll conducted by the financial instituions)....only to start plummeting as the results started to seep thru.

Not to mention the elephant in the room even if May has done a deal..... how the feck is it going to get voted thru?? I don't see enuff Labour numbers going for anything less than Norway and theres no way the brexiteers group will support anything less than Canada..