If you were laying odds right now?

Started by cadhlancian, April 21, 2010, 09:17:13 PM

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longrunsthefox

Cork 2/1
Kerry 2/1
Galway 5/1
Dublin 8/1
Tyrone 8/1
The rest non-runners.

Tyrone still well ahead in Ulster but can't see Sam coming North. If Cork can get their heads around Kerry in Croke Park it's all theirs. 

ildanach

Quote from: longrunsthefox on April 22, 2010, 11:59:41 AM
Cork 2/1
Kerry 2/1
Galway 5/1
Dublin 8/1
Tyrone 8/1
The rest non-runners.

Tyrone still well ahead in Ulster but can't see Sam coming North. If Cork can get their heads around Kerry in Croke Park it's all theirs.
Considering mayo beat 4 out of those 5 in the league perhaps we might be worthy of inclusion in your prices? I would have us at about 12/1 but galway at 5/1 ???
Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.

AFS

Quote from: ildanach on April 22, 2010, 01:40:37 PM
Quote from: longrunsthefox on April 22, 2010, 11:59:41 AM
Cork 2/1
Kerry 2/1
Galway 5/1
Dublin 8/1
Tyrone 8/1
The rest non-runners.

Tyrone still well ahead in Ulster but can't see Sam coming North. If Cork can get their heads around Kerry in Croke Park it's all theirs.
Considering mayo beat 4 out of those 5 in the league perhaps we might be worthy of inclusion in your prices? I would have us at about 12/1 but galway at 5/1 ???

Year after year, when these types of ranking lists are drawn up, Galway, along with Derry, seem to exhibit a special talent for making everyone forget how shite their recent championship form actually is. One quarter final beating a piece is all they have to show for the last five years.

Zulu

I agree AFS, Galway haven't a hope of winning the AI and would have to be closer to 50/1 before you should consider putting any money on them. Cork are clear favourites, Kerry next and after that you can put one of about eight teams on more or less the same odds, with only Tyrone as dark horses for an AI win.

longrunsthefox

Quote from: ildanach on April 22, 2010, 01:40:37 PM
Quote from: longrunsthefox on April 22, 2010, 11:59:41 AM
Cork 2/1
Kerry 2/1
Galway 5/1
Dublin 8/1
Tyrone 8/1
The rest non-runners.

Tyrone still well ahead in Ulster but can't see Sam coming North. If Cork can get their heads around Kerry in Croke Park it's all theirs.
Considering mayo beat 4 out of those 5 in the league perhaps we might be worthy of inclusion in your prices? I would have us at about 12/1 but galway at 5/1 ???

I suppose...  Galway 12/1   Mayo 33/1    ;)

shaund10

#20
Quote from: ross4life on April 22, 2010, 01:18:54 AM
well In our connacht Championship i would have

Galway 2/1
Mayo 2/1
Sligo 10/1
Roscommon 20/1*
Leitrim 20/1*
London 200/1
New york 300/1

*Great chance to make the final but no chance winning it

Can i have 2,000 Eur on Galway and 2,000 on Mayo at those odds please. You do the maths.

Its obvious from some of those lists that some of ye have never set foot in a bookies, never mind  trying a bit of odds compiling.

5/2 Cork - The obvious favourites. Hungry, good recent championship and league form. Chances are they have improved from last year, unlike many.

7/2 Kerry - Have lost out on a few players since last year. Don't look to be as strong, but still cant price them any bigger as they are capable of anything.

5/1 Tyrone - The one I would really be looking to take on if I was a bookie. Well beaten in every area by Cork last year and nothing since has suggested they could get any closer. A basic enough team once you break it down.

8/1 Dublin - Each year they look like making the breakthrough, each year they fail. 8/1 is a fair price on the dream becoming a reality.

14/1 Galway - Completly underperformed in recent years and are priced purely on potential. However with a proven new manager and a forward line up with the best of them, they are lively outsiders.

14/1 Mayo - An excellent league campaign has seen their odds tumble. A good solid team from 1-15. A good bet to make the semi finals. Might possibly lack the class to go on and win it.

20/1Armagh

25/1 Down

25/1 Derry

25/1 Donegal

25/1 Kildare

33/1 bar



ildanach

Quote from: longrunsthefox on April 22, 2010, 03:08:43 PM
I suppose...  Galway 12/1   Mayo 33/1    ;)

Can i take the 33/1 each way . getting to the final has never been our problem, just winning the f**kin thing :'(
Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.

longrunsthefox

#22
Quote from: shaund10 on April 22, 2010, 03:17:29 PM
Quote from: ross4life on April 22, 2010, 01:18:54 AM
well In our connacht Championship i would have

Galway 2/1
Mayo 2/1
Sligo 10/1
Roscommon 20/1*
Leitrim 20/1*
London 200/1
New york 300/1

*Great chance to make the final but no chance winning it

Can i have 2,000 Eur on Galway and 2,000 on Mayo at those odds please. You do the maths.

Its obvious from some of those lists that some of ye have never set foot in a bookies, never mind  trying a bit of odds compiling.

5/2 Cork - The obvious favourites. Hungry, good recent championship and league form. Chances are they have improved from last year, unlike many.

7/2 Kerry - Have lost out on a few players since last year. Don't look to be as strong, but still cant price them any bigger as they are capable of anything.

5/1 Tyrone - The one I would really be looking to take on if I was a bookie. Well beaten in every area by Cork last year and nothing since has suggested they could get any closer. A basic enough team once you break it down.

8/1 Dublin - Each year they look like making the breakthrough, each year they fail. 8/1 is a fair price on the dream becoming a reality.

14/1 Galway - Completly underperformed in recent years and are priced purely on potential. However with a proven new manager and a forward line up with the best of them, they are lively outsiders.

14/1 Mayo - An excellent league campaign has seen their odds tumble. A good solid team from 1-15. A good bet to make the 1/4 finals. Might possibly lack the class to go on and win it.

20/1Armagh

25/1 Down

25/1 Derry

25/1 Donegal

25/1 Kildare

33/1 bar

Are you a bookie? I have one visit a year for the Grand national cavalry charge and that is bets for Mrs Fox and the cubs
  I read Declan Lynch's book 'Free Money' recently about gambling. Interesting and funny though it wouldn't entice me to get into gambling. 

shaund10

Quote from: longrunsthefox on April 22, 2010, 03:30:34 PM

Are you a bookie? I have one visit a year for the Grand national cavalry charge and that is bets for Mrs Fox and the cubs
  I read Declan Lynch's book 'Free Money' recently about gambling. Interesting and funny though it wouldn't entice me to get into gambling.

Nah a student at the moment. I can see myself possibly getting into odds compiling (making the odds) down the line if I get the opportunity. That would be more in relation to horse racing than anything though.

ross4life

Quote from: shaund10 on April 22, 2010, 03:17:29 PM
Quote from: ross4life on April 22, 2010, 01:18:54 AM
well In our connacht Championship i would have

Galway 2/1
Mayo 2/1
Sligo 10/1
Roscommon 20/1*
Leitrim 20/1*
London 200/1
New york 300/1

*Great chance to make the final but no chance winning it



5/2 Cork - The obvious favourites. Hungry, good recent championship and league form. Chances are they have improved from last year, unlike many.



It's suppose to be our own odds & not copy & paste odds from the bookmakers website  ::)

Why are Cork the Obvious Favourites? two All Ireland Finals in the last 10 years which they were well beaten in both! let's compare them to Mayo as Example........ Also two All Ireland Finals in that time also good league form & chances have also improved since last year yet Cork are odds on with most & Mayo are long shots
The key to success is to be consistently competitive -- if you bang on the door often it will open

AFS

Quote from: ross4life on April 22, 2010, 03:44:03 PM
Why are Cork the Obvious Favourites? two All Ireland Finals in the last 10 years which they were well beaten in both! let's compare them to Mayo as Example........ Also two All Ireland Finals in that time also good league form & chances have also improved since last year yet Cork are odds on with most & Mayo are long shots

Cork have appeared in the last 4 in each of the last 5 years - Mayo have done so once.

Cork have appeared in 3 of the last 4 U21 finals - Mayo have appeared in 1.

At the business end of last year's championship Cork steamrolled Donegal and the defending champions, Tyrone; while Mayo bowed out to a poor Meath team.

Zulu

Quote from: ross4life on April 22, 2010, 03:44:03 PM
Quote from: shaund10 on April 22, 2010, 03:17:29 PM
Quote from: ross4life on April 22, 2010, 01:18:54 AM
well In our connacht Championship i would have

Galway 2/1
Mayo 2/1
Sligo 10/1
Roscommon 20/1*
Leitrim 20/1*
London 200/1
New york 300/1

*Great chance to make the final but no chance winning it



5/2 Cork - The obvious favourites. Hungry, good recent championship and league form. Chances are they have improved from last year, unlike many.



It's suppose to be our own odds & not copy & paste odds from the bookmakers website  ::)

Why are Cork the Obvious Favourites? two All Ireland Finals in the last 10 years which they were well beaten in both! let's compare them to Mayo as Example........ Also two All Ireland Finals in that time also good league form & chances have also improved since last year yet Cork are odds on with most & Mayo are long shots

Have you seen Cork play R4L? They have destroyed some pretty decent IC teams in the past 2 years and are in the league final without 6 or 7 of the lads who started last years AI final. There is always a chance they won't win the AI and you could argue they shouldn't be as highly rated as they are by some, me included, but I don't think anyone could argue they shouldn't be favourites for the AI. At worst they would be second favourites to most people I'd imagine.

ross4life

IMO i would still have Tyrone & Kerry ahead of Cork both of them seem to know how to get the form at the right time!
last time i have seen Cork play LIVE was v Roscommon 2008 they only beat us by 2pts that day & i wasn't over impressed by them so maybe that match is making me under rate them?

would be nice for a change but i wouldn't be surprised that Cork fall short again this year

P.S this was the Cork team that lined out that day

Alan Quirke
Diarmuid Duggan
Graham Canty
Kieran O'Connor
Noel O'Leary
Ger Spillane
Anthony Lynch
Alan O'Connor
Nicholas Murphy
John Miskella (0-1)
Pierce O'Neill (0-3)
Conor McCarthy (0-1)
Daniel Goulding (0-7)
Michael Cussen
Donnacha O'Connor (1-1)
Eoin Sexton (0-1) for Lynch
Steven O'Donoghue for O'Leary
John Hayes for Cussen
The key to success is to be consistently competitive -- if you bang on the door often it will open

Zulu

They're a lot stronger now R4L in fairness. Of the back 6 that started that day only Canty would be sure of starting in the championship if fit. Miskella is a defender and they can now afford to play him there so only 3 of that forward line are likely to make the starting 6 this year. The midfield pairing could be the same but I think the Cork midfield is weak enough anyway. The big thing though is that they have replaced the weaker players from then with players who are amongst their best players. Paddy Kelly, Colm O'Neill, Shields, Kerrigan and Sheehan would be among the first names down of teh team sheet so while Cork may have 6-8 of that team starting again this year the new players are 3 or 4 times as good as teh players they replaced.

AZOffaly

I think Cork have the parts, but can they get it together on when it counts? Can they reproduce the Tyrone performance twice or 3 times?

At some stage you have to think psychology plays a part in it, just as it undoubtedly now does with Kerry and Tyrone. There's no earthly rational reason why Kerry cannot beat Tyrone over the past 5 years, but it's undoubtedly in their heads. Similar story, I would suggest, with Cork and Kerry.

The thing is that if Cork won one, they could well be the new Tyrone, and hoover up 2 or 3 in 5 or 6 years.