Westminster Election 12th December 2019

Started by Ambrose, October 29, 2019, 02:24:04 PM

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yellowcard

Quote from: smelmoth on November 05, 2019, 10:26:30 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on November 05, 2019, 10:15:09 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on November 05, 2019, 09:12:22 PM
Paddy Power's odds on whom will win each Westminster constituency in NI...


East Belfast

8/13 DUP
5/4 Alliance
33/1 Greens
50/1 UUP
66/1 NI Conservatives

West Belfast

1/200 Sinn Fein
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 DUP

South Belfast

2/9 SDLP
7/2 Alliance
6/1 DUP
66/1 Greens
125/1 NI Conservatives
125/1 UUP

North Belfast

4/6 DUP
Evens Sinn Fein
50/1 Greens
66/1 Alliance

East Derry

1/100 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 NI Conservatives

Strangford

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 SDLP

South Down

1/4 Sinn Fein
23/10 SDLP
66/1 DUP
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

West Tyrone

1/200 Sinn Fein
50/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

North Antrim

1/200 DUP
50/1 UUP
50/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Upper Bann

1/100 DUP
33/1 Sinn Fein
50/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Newry & Armagh

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 UUP

East Antrim

1/200 DUP
33/1 Alliance
66/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 UUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 Greens

Foyle

4/6 SDLP
11/10 Sinn Fein
100/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance

Fermanagh & South Tyrone

8/15 Sinn Fein
11/8 UUP
100/1 Greens
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance

South Antrim

4/7 DUP
13/5 UUP
3/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Sinn Fein

Mid-Ulster

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 UUP

Lagan Valley

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 UUP
100/1 Sinn Fein

North Down

No odds yet published
Best case is
East Belfast Alliance
West Belfast SF
North Belfast SF
South Belfast SDLP
Foyle SF
Newry/Armagh SF
FST SF
North Down Independent
Mid Ulster SF
Lagan Valley DUP
South Antrim DUP
East Antrim DUP
Upper Bann DUP
South Down SF
East Derry DUP
West Tyrone SF
Strangford DUP
Upper Bann DUP

Giving
SF 8
Alliance 1
SDLP 1
Independents 1
And the other vermin 7.

We can but dream.

Do you regularly call people "vermin". By all means hold DUP to account for their many failings but have a word with yourself.

Are you sure about Foyle there? How is Elisha doing? Pity Durkan isn't standing again

Was mildly surprised to see Colum Eastwood favourite against Elisha McCallion, perhaps Eastwoods higher profile might work in his favour and the fact that he will also take up his seat. Still expect that one to be very close though.

thewobbler

It's a rather revolting indictment of the 6 counties that 80% of seats are completely and utterly locked up for either the party that would destroy NI through its own greed, and the party who won't represent anyone who votes for it.

We deserve to sink into the sea folks.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: thewobbler on November 05, 2019, 10:52:43 PM
It's a rather revolting indictment of the 6 counties that 80% of seats are completely and utterly locked up for either the party that would destroy NI through its own greed, and the party who won't represent anyone who votes for it.

We deserve to sink into the sea folks.

I see it as an indictment of the first-past-the-post system.

thewobbler

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on November 05, 2019, 10:54:03 PM
Quote from: thewobbler on November 05, 2019, 10:52:43 PM
It's a rather revolting indictment of the 6 counties that 80% of seats are completely and utterly locked up for either the party that would destroy NI through its own greed, and the party who won't represent anyone who votes for it.

We deserve to sink into the sea folks.

I see it as an indictment of the first-past-the-post system.

It would be the same political party breakdown regardless of how the election is configured.


dec

Quote from: thewobbler on November 05, 2019, 10:55:45 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on November 05, 2019, 10:54:03 PM
Quote from: thewobbler on November 05, 2019, 10:52:43 PM
It's a rather revolting indictment of the 6 counties that 80% of seats are completely and utterly locked up for either the party that would destroy NI through its own greed, and the party who won't represent anyone who votes for it.

We deserve to sink into the sea folks.

I see it as an indictment of the first-past-the-post system.

It would be the same political party breakdown regardless of how the election is configured.



If it was 4-5 multi-member constituencies elected by single transferable vote then it wouldn't be quite the same SF/DUP carve up

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: yellowcard on November 05, 2019, 10:41:06 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on November 05, 2019, 10:26:30 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on November 05, 2019, 10:15:09 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on November 05, 2019, 09:12:22 PM
Paddy Power's odds on whom will win each Westminster constituency in NI...


East Belfast

8/13 DUP
5/4 Alliance
33/1 Greens
50/1 UUP
66/1 NI Conservatives

West Belfast

1/200 Sinn Fein
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 DUP

South Belfast

2/9 SDLP
7/2 Alliance
6/1 DUP
66/1 Greens
125/1 NI Conservatives
125/1 UUP

North Belfast

4/6 DUP
Evens Sinn Fein
50/1 Greens
66/1 Alliance

East Derry

1/100 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 NI Conservatives

Strangford

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 SDLP

South Down

1/4 Sinn Fein
23/10 SDLP
66/1 DUP
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

West Tyrone

1/200 Sinn Fein
50/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

North Antrim

1/200 DUP
50/1 UUP
50/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Upper Bann

1/100 DUP
33/1 Sinn Fein
50/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Newry & Armagh

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 UUP

East Antrim

1/200 DUP
33/1 Alliance
66/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 UUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 Greens

Foyle

4/6 SDLP
11/10 Sinn Fein
100/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance

Fermanagh & South Tyrone

8/15 Sinn Fein
11/8 UUP
100/1 Greens
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance

South Antrim

4/7 DUP
13/5 UUP
3/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Sinn Fein

Mid-Ulster

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 UUP

Lagan Valley

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 UUP
100/1 Sinn Fein

North Down

No odds yet published
Best case is
East Belfast Alliance
West Belfast SF
North Belfast SF
South Belfast SDLP
Foyle SF
Newry/Armagh SF
FST SF
North Down Independent
Mid Ulster SF
Lagan Valley DUP
South Antrim DUP
East Antrim DUP
Upper Bann DUP
South Down SF
East Derry DUP
West Tyrone SF
Strangford DUP
Upper Bann DUP

Giving
SF 8
Alliance 1
SDLP 1
Independents 1
And the other vermin 7.

We can but dream.

Do you regularly call people "vermin". By all means hold DUP to account for their many failings but have a word with yourself.

Are you sure about Foyle there? How is Elisha doing? Pity Durkan isn't standing again

Was mildly surprised to see Colum Eastwood favourite against Elisha McCallion, perhaps Eastwoods higher profile might work in his favour and the fact that he will also take up his seat. Still expect that one to be very close though.
[/quote

It will be close but Elisha is not rated too much down these parts

marty34

Is Aontú standing in this election or have they folded?

Eamonnca1

Quote from: marty34 on November 05, 2019, 11:47:12 PM
Is Aontú standing in this election or have they folded?

I doubt if both members of that party had the capacity to run an election campaign.

yellowcard

Quote from: thewobbler on November 05, 2019, 10:55:45 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on November 05, 2019, 10:54:03 PM
Quote from: thewobbler on November 05, 2019, 10:52:43 PM
It's a rather revolting indictment of the 6 counties that 80% of seats are completely and utterly locked up for either the party that would destroy NI through its own greed, and the party who won't represent anyone who votes for it.

We deserve to sink into the sea folks.

I see it as an indictment of the first-past-the-post system.

It would be the same political party breakdown regardless of how the election is configured.

If it was PR I don't think it would, certainly not to the same extent. There would be less need for pacts and there would be less tactical voting as people would be more inclined to vote for the candidates that they want rather than against the ones who they don't want.

omaghjoe

Just for reference is the the Shankill split between NB and WB?
Also does the motorway form the boundary for SB and WB?

omaghjoe

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on November 05, 2019, 11:59:31 PM
Quote from: marty34 on November 05, 2019, 11:47:12 PM
Is Aontú standing in this election or have they folded?

I doubt if both members of that party had the capacity to run an election campaign.

Is that the sum total of Shinners with a conscience? No surprise there I suppose

RedHand88

Quote from: omaghjoe on November 06, 2019, 12:50:53 AM
Just for reference is the the Shankill split between NB and WB?
Also does the motorway form the boundary for SB and WB?

Yep

bogball88

Quote from: marty34 on November 05, 2019, 11:47:12 PM
Is Aontú standing in this election or have they folded?
Dr Anne McCloskey standing in Foyle. Current sitting councillor

Owenmoresider

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on November 05, 2019, 11:59:31 PM
Quote from: marty34 on November 05, 2019, 11:47:12 PM
Is Aontú standing in this election or have they folded?

I doubt if both members of that party had the capacity to run an election campaign.
::)

They're running in Foyle and West Belfast fwiw.

Keyser soze

David Simpson not standing in Upper Bann, unlikely it will end up as anything other than a DUP return regardless.