Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[BennyCake]

Armstrong is a complete ignoramus. Just cos she's the Alliance Chief Whip at Stormont, she thinks she owns the place. Completely up her own arse - a vindictive & nasty piece of work altogether.

Remember on Nolan once she was talking absolute shite about how the Republic still had a lot to do to become as liberal and progressive as the UK, funny I dont remember when the UK had a PM who was openly gay and non-white. Sure even Tony Blair didnt become a catholic until he was out of office for fear of the shit storm it would cause. Nope I cant stand her and I once voted Alliance but they seem to be annoying me more and more

Blair converting might have something to do with Catholics not allowed to be the British PM.

When and where did you make that one up?

A quick google should tell you that although the law is not fully explicit for PM there is something to it....

The law was only changed in the last couple of years methinks. Was the same for the line of succession to the throne (or whatever it's called) until around the same time.

They say it was changed recently. Maybe the anti-catholic stance has diminished (on the surface) in Britain, but the House of Lords has COE leaders only in it. No influence from Catholicism. The idea is that having Catholics around the place advising the government and royalty and pushing their Vatican dogma, we'll we couldn't have that, could we?

Anyway, I wouldn't be fooled by the removal of the Catholic monarch/PM thing. Britain from the top, is as still sectarian as anything you'd have seen at the time of Henry 8 or the setup of Guy Fawkes.

Duchess of Kent was received into the Catholic church in 1994. Both Jacob Rees Mogg and Ian Duncan Smith are Catholics.

None of them are PM or monarch though.

This is nonsense

Britain is a Protestant country from the top down. Nothing nonsense about it.

Tell the average man on the street outside NI and Scotland that they are a Protestant and they are likely to politely smile and move to the sane side of the street

Do you work for the Belfast Telegraph? Shit stirrer.

[smelmoth]

Armstrong is a complete ignoramus. Just cos she's the Alliance Chief Whip at Stormont, she thinks she owns the place. Completely up her own arse - a vindictive & nasty piece of work altogether.

Remember on Nolan once she was talking absolute shite about how the Republic still had a lot to do to become as liberal and progressive as the UK, funny I dont remember when the UK had a PM who was openly gay and non-white. Sure even Tony Blair didnt become a catholic until he was out of office for fear of the shit storm it would cause. Nope I cant stand her and I once voted Alliance but they seem to be annoying me more and more

Blair converting might have something to do with Catholics not allowed to be the British PM.

When and where did you make that one up?

A quick google should tell you that although the law is not fully explicit for PM there is something to it....

The law was only changed in the last couple of years methinks. Was the same for the line of succession to the throne (or whatever it's called) until around the same time.

They say it was changed recently. Maybe the anti-catholic stance has diminished (on the surface) in Britain, but the House of Lords has COE leaders only in it. No influence from Catholicism. The idea is that having Catholics around the place advising the government and royalty and pushing their Vatican dogma, we'll we couldn't have that, could we?

Anyway, I wouldn't be fooled by the removal of the Catholic monarch/PM thing. Britain from the top, is as still sectarian as anything you'd have seen at the time of Henry 8 or the setup of Guy Fawkes.

Duchess of Kent was received into the Catholic church in 1994. Both Jacob Rees Mogg and Ian Duncan Smith are Catholics.

None of them are PM or monarch though.

This is nonsense

Britain is a Protestant country from the top down. Nothing nonsense about it.

Tell the average man on the street outside NI and Scotland that they are a Protestant and they are likely to politely smile and move to the sane side of the street

Do you work for the Belfast Telegraph? Shit stirrer.

No to the first bit and ?? To the second. You get on with answering them questions

[yellowcard]

Any word of reciprocal moves from Alliance in South Belfast/ North Down, couldn't see them doing it in NB TBF.

Would have thought the Green's would withdraw in North Down and East Belfast also.

Could Upper Bann be in play at all for a pact?

Or even South Antrim to help out UU they prob burnt that bridge by withdrawing from NB?

Couldn't see it. Results from 2017 general election:

DUP 43.5%
SF 27.9%
UUP 15.4%
SDLP 8.6%
Alliance 4.5%

The DUP Brexit result is atrocious. I wouldn't rule out a backlash

I don't think the DUP will lose much in terms of vote in percentage terms. They may even gain votes since I wouldn't underestimate the fear and paranoia that exists within a large part of unionism. They have already begun to frame the election away from Brexit, RHI and their own record in Parliament. It's all about SF bogeymen, pan nationalist alliances, threats to the union and warding off any border poll. They've got the paramilitaries backing but they have simply battened down the hatches and are so inward looking that they are yet again putting short term thinking ahead of everything else.

By a quirke of fate they had a disproportionate influence after the last Westminster election. No matter the outcome for the DUP after the next election in terms of MPs, it is very likely that they will go back to being a minor party in Parliament in terms of having any real influence on Brexit.

[playwiththewind1st]

Is Paula Bradshaw not standing in south Belfast?

Posters are up anyway...

Looks like Hanna is the go to & she will unseat that bitter piece of shit that we currently have for an MP. Naomi Long ought to have had some guts the other day, rather than waffling.  If Alliance had pulled Bradshaw, they could have put all their resources into flooding East Belfast & getting in there again.

After this election, do you reckon there'll be another election next year?

Yes - latest current date in legislation to call an Assembly election is 13 January 2020. They should have had 2 for price of 1 on 12 December.

[marty34]

Any word of reciprocal moves from Alliance in South Belfast/ North Down, couldn't see them doing it in NB TBF.

Would have thought the Green's would withdraw in North Down and East Belfast also.

Could Upper Bann be in play at all for a pact?

Or even South Antrim to help out UU they prob burnt that bridge by withdrawing from NB?

Couldn't see it. Results from 2017 general election:

DUP 43.5%
SF 27.9%
UUP 15.4%
SDLP 8.6%
Alliance 4.5%

The DUP Brexit result is atrocious. I wouldn't rule out a backlash

I would. Areas like this and north Antrim won't change.

Not a chance - they'll have a big vote again. Parnonia is huge at the minute.

Some lad on Talkback I think yesterday, said his name was on that letter to Submarine Stevie- he said he was against Brexit and when the interviewer asked his who was he voting for next month....he said the DUP.

I nearly crashed the car.

[playwiththewind1st]

Is there any chance of the RHI inquiry report being published on a totally random date of say, for example, just off the top of the head, Wednesday 11th December, just for a bit of crack???

[screenexile]

Tories have made a right pigs ear of today after Boris started well with his letter to Corbyn about his Brexit position.

Rees Mog and then Bridgen both showing they're stupid fucks!! I doubt we'll see much of either of them again the next few weeks!!!

[yellowcard]

Tories have made a right pigs ear of today after Boris started well with his letter to Corbyn about his Brexit position.

Rees Mog and then Bridgen both showing they're stupid f**ks!! I doubt we'll see much of either of them again the next few weeks!!!

I think you will see Labour making ground on the Tories again in this election. Corbyn is a very good campaigner and the Tories have so many MPs in positions of power who simply cannot be trusted that there are bound to be more of these gaffes. I also expect Johnson to get exposed later on in the campaign when he does the debates. When you are a charlatan with no real conviction about anything other than your own personal ambition then you will eventually get found out when scrutinised properly. I don't expect Labour to win the election but it wouldn't surprise me if they have the numbers to form a coalition.

[Dougal Maguire]

I think that's a fair point. Think they'll do the SDLP damage in both South Belfast, although I think Clare Hanna should win, and Foyle.

[Eamonnca1]

Thanks Fionn. Seems like the only seats in play are East Belfast, South Belfast, North Belfast, South Down, Foyle, FST, South Antrim, and the rest are wrapped up. DUP are a dead cert in 6 seats, SF onto a winner in 4.

[yellowcard]

So based on odds and excluding North Down its 8 x DUP, 6 SF & 2 X SDLP. North Down is a straight shoot out between DUP & Sylvia Hermon.

[ardtole]

If sf win north belfast then its dup 7 sf 7. I was reading somewhere today that south antrim is a close call between dup & uup as well.

Not much between dup and alliance in east belfast either, Naomi Long will definitely run Robinson close.

[Armagh18]

Paddy Power's odds on whom will win each Westminster constituency in NI...


East Belfast

8/13 DUP
5/4 Alliance
33/1 Greens
50/1 UUP
66/1 NI Conservatives

West Belfast

1/200 Sinn Fein
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 DUP

South Belfast

2/9 SDLP
7/2 Alliance
6/1 DUP
66/1 Greens
125/1 NI Conservatives
125/1 UUP

North Belfast

4/6 DUP
Evens Sinn Fein
50/1 Greens
66/1 Alliance

East Derry

1/100 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 NI Conservatives

Strangford

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 SDLP

South Down

1/4 Sinn Fein
23/10 SDLP
66/1 DUP
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

West Tyrone

1/200 Sinn Fein
50/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

North Antrim

1/200 DUP
50/1 UUP
50/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Upper Bann

1/100 DUP
33/1 Sinn Fein
50/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Newry & Armagh

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 UUP

East Antrim

1/200 DUP
33/1 Alliance
66/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 UUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 Greens

Foyle

4/6 SDLP
11/10 Sinn Fein
100/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance

Fermanagh & South Tyrone

8/15 Sinn Fein
11/8 UUP
100/1 Greens
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance

South Antrim

4/7 DUP
13/5 UUP
3/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Sinn Fein

Mid-Ulster

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 UUP

Lagan Valley

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 UUP
100/1 Sinn Fein

North Down

No odds yet published

Best case is
East Belfast Alliance
West Belfast SF
North Belfast SF
South Belfast SDLP
Foyle SF
Newry/Armagh SF
FST SF
North Down Independent
Mid Ulster SF
Lagan Valley DUP
South Antrim DUP
East Antrim DUP
Upper Bann DUP
South Down SF
East Derry DUP
West Tyrone SF
Strangford DUP
Upper Bann DUP

Giving
SF 8
Alliance 1
SDLP 1
Independents 1
And the other vermin 7.

We can but dream.

[seafoid]

The big unknown is how much damage the DUP's Brexit failure will cost them.
Voters are already pissed off after 9 years of austerity .

[smelmoth]

Paddy Power's odds on whom will win each Westminster constituency in NI...


East Belfast

8/13 DUP
5/4 Alliance
33/1 Greens
50/1 UUP
66/1 NI Conservatives

West Belfast

1/200 Sinn Fein
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 DUP

South Belfast

2/9 SDLP
7/2 Alliance
6/1 DUP
66/1 Greens
125/1 NI Conservatives
125/1 UUP

North Belfast

4/6 DUP
Evens Sinn Fein
50/1 Greens
66/1 Alliance

East Derry

1/100 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 NI Conservatives

Strangford

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 Sinn Fein
100/1 UUP
100/1 SDLP

South Down

1/4 Sinn Fein
23/10 SDLP
66/1 DUP
100/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

West Tyrone

1/200 Sinn Fein
50/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
66/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance

North Antrim

1/200 DUP
50/1 UUP
50/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Upper Bann

1/100 DUP
33/1 Sinn Fein
50/1 UUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP

Newry & Armagh

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 UUP

East Antrim

1/200 DUP
33/1 Alliance
66/1 Sinn Fein
66/1 UUP
66/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 Greens

Foyle

4/6 SDLP
11/10 Sinn Fein
100/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance

Fermanagh & South Tyrone

8/15 Sinn Fein
11/8 UUP
100/1 Greens
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Alliance

South Antrim

4/7 DUP
13/5 UUP
3/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 Sinn Fein

Mid-Ulster

1/100 Sinn Fein
33/1 DUP
100/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 UUP

Lagan Valley

1/200 DUP
20/1 Alliance
100/1 SDLP
100/1 NI Conservatives
100/1 UUP
100/1 Sinn Fein

North Down

No odds yet published

Best case is
East Belfast Alliance
West Belfast SF
North Belfast SF
South Belfast SDLP
Foyle SF
Newry/Armagh SF
FST SF
North Down Independent
Mid Ulster SF
Lagan Valley DUP
South Antrim DUP
East Antrim DUP
Upper Bann DUP
South Down SF
East Derry DUP
West Tyrone SF
Strangford DUP
Upper Bann DUP

Giving
SF 8
Alliance 1
SDLP 1
Independents 1
And the other vermin 7.

We can but dream.

Do you regularly call people "vermin". By all means hold DUP to account for their many failings but have a word with yourself.

Are you sure about Foyle there? How is Elisha doing? Pity Durkan isn't standing again