The Many Faces of US Politics...

[omaghjoe]

If you can't understand what is going on in the USA or Trump If you listen to some of the right wing (not the Alex Jones looney toons variety) political podcasts you get a pretty clear picture of which way the wind is blowing.

It seems to me that these people simply don't care anymore, Rachel Maddow and all these media talking heads crying on TV is what they have for entertainment. They're not even watching Fox News except for Tucker Carlson. Crying left leaning liberals is comedy to them not Colbert or Jon Stuart.

The fact is people have been grumbling into their cornflakes about immigration and if you give them a vote on it they'll swallow it hook line and sinker. I don't know why the left haven't picked up on this. Most people don't care about gay marriage and things like that, that the old mainstream conservatives tried to play on, apart from a sizeable but limited number of more religious conservatives. but for most people it's like handing a bald man a comb. They don't particularly like it but at the same time they don't care.

And I'm pretty sure I said over a year ago when I probably last delved into politics on this board that calling Trump and his supporters Nazis won't help matters. How's that working out? All it does is buy him more wiggle room because anyone with a brain can see the gaping chasm between arresting illegal immigrants (and holding their children temporarily in a facility while they are being charged) and actually killing mass numbers of people. That's why they are laughing. That's why they are asking "aren't these people Mexico's responsibility not ours".

Immigration and demographic concerns are the real boiling points of the political right. I'm pretty certain of the left had kept demographics in check they could have almost every other social policy they wanted with only a few exceptions in the USA ie guns.

By the way, I predict the Democrats in 2020 will run with Andrew Yang as their candidate. It will be his UBI populism versus Trumps Nationalist populism. His message plays down identity politics and aims his message at the out of work or struggling working class voter. Effectively he will be offering welfare and unlocking potential where Trump will be offering you your old job back.

However on demographics this seems to be a lesson the left seem universally unwilling to learn and from what I can see there are some on that side of things that like to pat themselves on the back about how clever they are but somehow were (and still are) oblivious to the political freight train that was about to hit them.

My simple message is to any political party is simply do not f**k with the DEMOgraphic make up of your country especially in a DEMOcracy. A government should never vote for a change of electorate. It is political suicide.

If you don't want the far right to take control then learn this lesson. For all the accolades people lay at the feet of Angela Merkel she has single handily given stimulus to the far right all across Europe with her open borders and migrant quota proposals. Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Austria and now Italy have gone to the right. They are hinting at expelling Hungary under the Lisbon treaty for not respecting EU values. Well if they do that allow me to predict that will backfire spectacularly as I get the feeling that others will happily join them.

France wasn't that far off really and when you look at Macron, his manufactured rise and where the money care from you really see it was desperate measures.

In the UK ironically perhaps we have to give a big thank you to David Cameron (and Farage too) for deflecting the energy of the populist right into the bucket of shit that is brexit. In fact the only other thing stopping the far right taking power in the UK is the hate speech laws which are starting to penalise some very trivial occurrences but I'm pretty sure someone is going to figure a way navigate the politically correct mine field eventually. Just like the AFD has in Germany.

It's not far off here in England. Tommy Robinson even went to jail over these kinds of issues ie grooming gangs. It was premeditated, he knew he was going to break the law he said as much in an interview not long before he got arrested. Now he has people marching in the street for him while Teresa May was wishing everyone a happy Eid. The anger among the English working class is palpable as is the contempt for them in the media, the political class and the middle and upper classes.

Even my own wife could not understand as I explained to her, we are in a nice leafy middle class area among independent professionals. We just smile and wave at our neighbours of various backgrounds but we don't need each other or compete with them for anything either. We have the means and the economic freedom to avoid them if we so wished. If you are in a poor area, with few options, you are competing with other groups for housing, welfare, time at the GP etc it's a different matter. Or maybe it's the Asian gang across town that beat you up or killed one of your friends. That is the grim reality from which this emerges.

There is a line trotted out that patriotism is the last resort of a scoundrel. However I would counter that it is the last thing the poorest can cling to if they ever want to feel a part of society. It is that fine line of belonging that links those from the bottom to the top. But once those at the top betray that trust or render it meaningless then you risk alienating a lot of people. That is what we are seeing now in England.

And Ireland will go that way too I predict. It just needs the demographics to start shifting and if there is to be a projected 1m population increase by 2040, Right wing scare mongering aside, it is safe to assume a sizeable % of this will be immigration on top of the growing ethnic minority communities that are already here. Someone like Justin Barrett will be waiting in the wings for the right moment. It happened everywhere else it will happen in Ireland too.

However I think I am pissing into the wind because the left won't concede on this one. But the only thing worse than letting the right have their way on immigration would be to not let them and for that reason I think America will tear itself apart before long and the EU will crumble too or itself will become a right wing institution.

You may not be a left or right wing person and you may not like identity politics (or racism if you call it by its proper name) then your best bet ironically would actually be to try and live as least an ethnically diverse country as possible because that way people are less inclined to think about their identity, race etc and would most likely feel a genuine sense of belonging to the place they live in.

Good post and I agree with a lot of what you are saying.

The problem is the the system of soverign nationalism is based along ethnic lines  and when people see that being altered that becomes the target but there has to be an underlying problem.

And the underlying problem is .... the economy stupid. People are struggling, losing their jobs, debt rising, middle class squeeze etc etc. They are wondering why and they see the migrants coming in and taking jobs and blame them for it.

So are they taking jobs?... Of course! But not usually the kind of jobs that the masses are willing to work (as they would be worse of) or are qualified to work (as their skill set does not meet the requirements). The migrants are allowed in not for some politicians eclectic society dream, but because they are filling a economic need to drive the economy, which will ultimately pay for the things that politicians keep promising the electorate like roads schools, hospitals etc etc...

The root cause of this all is a falling birth rate... the economic model of virtually every economy in history has been based on a growing population, a growing population is required to support an economy. Now since the mid 20th century Western countries have not had a high enough birth rate to support the labour needs of their economy so they have encouraged immigration to fill those gaps and keep the economy expanding. All the while increasing the welfare state, discouraging whole segments of society to not be economically active, which the rest of the electorate and the immigrant population were paying for this eventually had to give.
Increasing globalization is another method of adding to economic growth, which on the one hand it adds money to the exchequer via corporate growth but it takes money away from the labour force (moving jobs overseas) and ultimately means that the corporations become more powerful than the governments themselves so they start calling the shots for the economy about what is best for their bottom line.

To the man on the street tho this is a bit to complicated to understand try telling him that the software engineer from India, Welder from Slovakia, or cook from El Salvador is paying for his lifestyle since he lost his job in the steel work after the Chinese buyout. He would see it in simple terms they're taking our new jobs that went to China.

Tho fundamentally I agree with your bottom line.... Trump could well be heading for another 4 years with Rees Moog to reestablish the special relationship. But sure thats democracy

[seafoid]

If you can't understand what is going on in the USA or Trump If you listen to some of the right wing (not the Alex Jones looney toons variety) political podcasts you get a pretty clear picture of which way the wind is blowing.

It seems to me that these people simply don't care anymore, Rachel Maddow and all these media talking heads crying on TV is what they have for entertainment. They're not even watching Fox News except for Tucker Carlson. Crying left leaning liberals is comedy to them not Colbert or Jon Stuart.

The fact is people have been grumbling into their cornflakes about immigration and if you give them a vote on it they'll swallow it hook line and sinker. I don't know why the left haven't picked up on this. Most people don't care about gay marriage and things like that, that the old mainstream conservatives tried to play on, apart from a sizeable but limited number of more religious conservatives. but for most people it's like handing a bald man a comb. They don't particularly like it but at the same time they don't care.

And I'm pretty sure I said over a year ago when I probably last delved into politics on this board that calling Trump and his supporters Nazis won't help matters. How's that working out? All it does is buy him more wiggle room because anyone with a brain can see the gaping chasm between arresting illegal immigrants (and holding their children temporarily in a facility while they are being charged) and actually killing mass numbers of people. That's why they are laughing. That's why they are asking "aren't these people Mexico's responsibility not ours".

Immigration and demographic concerns are the real boiling points of the political right. I'm pretty certain of the left had kept demographics in check they could have almost every other social policy they wanted with only a few exceptions in the USA ie guns.

By the way, I predict the Democrats in 2020 will run with Andrew Yang as their candidate. It will be his UBI populism versus Trumps Nationalist populism. His message plays down identity politics and aims his message at the out of work or struggling working class voter. Effectively he will be offering welfare and unlocking potential where Trump will be offering you your old job back.

However on demographics this seems to be a lesson the left seem universally unwilling to learn and from what I can see there are some on that side of things that like to pat themselves on the back about how clever they are but somehow were (and still are) oblivious to the political freight train that was about to hit them.

My simple message is to any political party is simply do not f**k with the DEMOgraphic make up of your country especially in a DEMOcracy. A government should never vote for a change of electorate. It is political suicide.

If you don't want the far right to take control then learn this lesson. For all the accolades people lay at the feet of Angela Merkel she has single handily given stimulus to the far right all across Europe with her open borders and migrant quota proposals. Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Austria and now Italy have gone to the right. They are hinting at expelling Hungary under the Lisbon treaty for not respecting EU values. Well if they do that allow me to predict that will backfire spectacularly as I get the feeling that others will happily join them.

France wasn't that far off really and when you look at Macron, his manufactured rise and where the money care from you really see it was desperate measures.

In the UK ironically perhaps we have to give a big thank you to David Cameron (and Farage too) for deflecting the energy of the populist right into the bucket of shit that is brexit. In fact the only other thing stopping the far right taking power in the UK is the hate speech laws which are starting to penalise some very trivial occurrences but I'm pretty sure someone is going to figure a way navigate the politically correct mine field eventually. Just like the AFD has in Germany.

It's not far off here in England. Tommy Robinson even went to jail over these kinds of issues ie grooming gangs. It was premeditated, he knew he was going to break the law he said as much in an interview not long before he got arrested. Now he has people marching in the street for him while Teresa May was wishing everyone a happy Eid. The anger among the English working class is palpable as is the contempt for them in the media, the political class and the middle and upper classes.

Even my own wife could not understand as I explained to her, we are in a nice leafy middle class area among independent professionals. We just smile and wave at our neighbours of various backgrounds but we don't need each other or compete with them for anything either. We have the means and the economic freedom to avoid them if we so wished. If you are in a poor area, with few options, you are competing with other groups for housing, welfare, time at the GP etc it's a different matter. Or maybe it's the Asian gang across town that beat you up or killed one of your friends. That is the grim reality from which this emerges.

There is a line trotted out that patriotism is the last resort of a scoundrel. However I would counter that it is the last thing the poorest can cling to if they ever want to feel a part of society. It is that fine line of belonging that links those from the bottom to the top. But once those at the top betray that trust or render it meaningless then you risk alienating a lot of people. That is what we are seeing now in England.

And Ireland will go that way too I predict. It just needs the demographics to start shifting and if there is to be a projected 1m population increase by 2040, Right wing scare mongering aside, it is safe to assume a sizeable % of this will be immigration on top of the growing ethnic minority communities that are already here. Someone like Justin Barrett will be waiting in the wings for the right moment. It happened everywhere else it will happen in Ireland too.

However I think I am pissing into the wind because the left won't concede on this one. But the only thing worse than letting the right have their way on immigration would be to not let them and for that reason I think America will tear itself apart before long and the EU will crumble too or itself will become a right wing institution.

You may not be a left or right wing person and you may not like identity politics (or racism if you call it by its proper name) then your best bet ironically would actually be to try and live as least an ethnically diverse country as possible because that way people are less inclined to think about their identity, race etc and would most likely feel a genuine sense of belonging to the place they live in.

Great post

A lot of people are pissed off and business as usual has no answers.
But immigration is a deflection. The real issue is money.

After 2008 Central Bankers tried to rescue the economy with Quantitative Easing. None of the money got to the people. It was all speculated. House prices are insane . Young people have to rent. Governments cut spending across the board.
the Trump admin is slashing welfare and family supports and privatising across the board. Then Fox rant on about immigration.

Immigration control won't put food on tables.

The Tories could well collapse over Brexit. In Italy the bourgeois parties have already collapsed. What replaces them? Polarisation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f957Tn4etv4

Immigration control is not the issue. The issue is the economy and where the money goes.  This is plutocracy.

[Hardy]

Great post, Juice and spot on, Seafoid.

The political left has not merely misjudged the flight of the ball. It has given the ball to the hard right.

In the developed world, the global corporations have been allowed to transfer the economic gains of globalisation straight to capital with none of it going to working people,  never mind the underprivileged, whose welfare programmes have actually been cut. Spectacular gains in productivity since the 80s have ALL gone to capital, working people are worse off than they were then and that is the fertile soil in which xenophobia, racism and fascism grow. That is the breeding ground for Brexit and Trump.

And it is all the fault of the political left that allowed it happen while they philosophised and fiddled about gender politics and such while forgetting their primary purpose – to look after working people. It's not that identity politics, respect and euality are not important – it's that they flow from a political philosophy that puts the material welfare of its voters first. Their hearts and minds will follow. Right now, they're following the likes of Farrage, Trump and the dangerous right wing ideologues emerging throughout Europe.

[thejuice]

The economy is indeed an important underlying factor but we live in a democracy with supposedly a sovereign people not a sovereign economy. Not everything is the economy as cultural battles are also at play here.

The relationship between economic growth and population change was always a finely balanced trade off and once it goes akilter there seems to be rather extreme self righting mechanism that kicks into gear. Quite often the nature of the economic need and the numbers for migration is concealed or buttered up for the receiving populace which again undermines the trust between the various classes.

The right love to point to Japan as a nation that has chosen to preserve its ethnicity over economic growth. They have a shrinking population, a large but rather flat economy and are looking into automation to manage the shrinking workforce problem.

The USA ain't Japan though so i don't know how they plan to manage that one and I don't think they'll be showing up to pick fruit anytime soon either

[heganboy]

20,000 to 1

325 million people, 17,000 murders.

Less than 17,000 murderers...

[whitey]

So called "Muslim" Travel Ban upheld by Supreme Court

Meltdown occurs in 3....2.....1...

[J70]

So called "Muslim" Travel Ban upheld by Supreme Court

Meltdown occurs in 3....2.....1...

What do you mean "so-called"?

That's exactly what it was. Giuliani is on record saying that finding a "legal" way to ban Muslims was his remit.

He's had to modify it and the conservative Supreme Court says the current version is within his gift as President, but that in itself doesn't make the whole issue morally right.

[J70]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/25/politics/trump-immigration-trap-cnn/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/25/opinions/trump-immigration-gop-could-still-win-jennings-opinion/index.html


People will believe whatever they want to belive

While I think the recent crisis wont help Trump, it wont hurt him as much as Democrats think it will

FFS his support among Republicans has even GONE UP over the past few days according to CNN

Lets see what happens if theres a high profile murder by an illegal in any of these districts where seats are primed to be flipped from red to blue.

I have no idea if it will help or hinder Trump.

It certainly won't hurt him amongst a certain segment of the population.

Personally, I don't really give a shit if it doesn't hurt him. Standing up to him on this issue and calling it out for what it is is the correct thing to do, whether or not there are short term costs for doing so.

MLK said that the arc of the moral universe bends towards justice, but as someone said last week (Springsteen?), it still requires people to help bend it that way. That some immoral, callous demagogue is temporarily exploiting fear and hatred doesn't change that.

[seafoid]

Great post, Juice and spot on, Seafoid.

The political left has not merely misjudged the flight of the ball. It has given the ball to the hard right.

In the developed world, the global corporations have been allowed to transfer the economic gains of globalisation straight to capital with none of it going to working people,  never mind the underprivileged, whose welfare programmes have actually been cut. Spectacular gains in productivity since the 80s have ALL gone to capital, working people are worse off than they were then and that is the fertile soil in which xenophobia, racism and fascism grow. That is the breeding ground for Brexit and Trump.

And it is all the fault of the political left that allowed it happen while they philosophised and fiddled about gender politics and such while forgetting their primary purpose – to look after working people. It's not that identity politics, respect and euality are not important – it's that they flow from a political philosophy that puts the material welfare of its voters first. Their hearts and minds will follow. Right now, they're following the likes of Farrage, Trump and the dangerous right wing ideologues emerging throughout Europe.

That is a great analysis, Hardy.

Nobody in the left wing parties understands how the economy works. They all bow to the superior knowledge of the Central Bankers. And the central bankers  know nothing. Their models are all useless.

Osborne launched QE to get the UK deficit down from £1.05 tn in 2013. The deficit is now £1.7 tn.
Deflation sucks money from voters and gives it to plutocrats.

The problem is really simple. You cannot have a normal political system with plutocracy. It has never been possible.
And the solution is really easy. Tax the f**k out of the plutocrats. They will continue to ride voters until they are forced  to stop.

Working class voters need to move away from polarisation and towards what unites us. In the past this was done by cross political orgs like the boy scouts and the breaking up of corrupt and bankrupt institutions such as the British Empire and Tammany Hall. 

Culture wars are bullshit. There are pure divide and rule.
It all comes back to the system.

[whitey]

So called "Muslim" Travel Ban upheld by Supreme Court

Meltdown occurs in 3....2.....1...

What do you mean "so-called"?

That's exactly what it was. Giuliani is on record saying that finding a "legal" way to ban Muslims was his remit.

He's had to modify it and the conservative Supreme Court says the current version is within his gift as President, but that in itself doesn't make the whole issue morally right.

If it is a "Muslim ban"  it is a pretty ineffective one, considering it doesn't apply to 88% of the worlds Muslim, but believe what you want

[J70]

So called "Muslim" Travel Ban upheld by Supreme Court

Meltdown occurs in 3....2.....1...

What do you mean "so-called"?

That's exactly what it was. Giuliani is on record saying that finding a "legal" way to ban Muslims was his remit.

He's had to modify it and the conservative Supreme Court says the current version is within his gift as President, but that in itself doesn't make the whole issue morally right.

If it is a "Muslim ban"  it is a pretty ineffective one, considering it doesn't apply to 88% of the worlds Muslim, but believe what you want

It was as much as he thought he could get away with.

YOU believe what YOU want, but both Giuliani and Trump are on the record.

[whitey]

So called "Muslim" Travel Ban upheld by Supreme Court

Meltdown occurs in 3....2.....1...

What do you mean "so-called"?

That's exactly what it was. Giuliani is on record saying that finding a "legal" way to ban Muslims was his remit.

He's had to modify it and the conservative Supreme Court says the current version is within his gift as President, but that in itself doesn't make the whole issue morally right.

If it is a "Muslim ban"  it is a pretty ineffective one, considering it doesn't apply to 88% of the worlds Muslim, but believe what you want

It was as much as he thought he could get away with.

YOU believe what YOU want, but both Giuliani and Trump are on the record.

Oh......I forgot that the 12% it does apply to,  its only a temporary ban.

One heck of a Muslim ban if you ask me-lol

[J70]

So called "Muslim" Travel Ban upheld by Supreme Court

Meltdown occurs in 3....2.....1...

What do you mean "so-called"?

That's exactly what it was. Giuliani is on record saying that finding a "legal" way to ban Muslims was his remit.

He's had to modify it and the conservative Supreme Court says the current version is within his gift as President, but that in itself doesn't make the whole issue morally right.

If it is a "Muslim ban"  it is a pretty ineffective one, considering it doesn't apply to 88% of the worlds Muslim, but believe what you want

It was as much as he thought he could get away with.

YOU believe what YOU want, but both Giuliani and Trump are on the record.

Oh......I forgot that the 12% it does apply to,  its only a temporary ban.

One heck of a Muslim ban if you ask me-lol

Defend away. I'm just thankful there are SOME checks and balances to Trump and his supporters' wishes.

[heganboy]

It will prove to be to the detriment of the United States economy and way of life that the Republicans were allowed to steal the supreme Court seat.

The dissenting comment on the supreme Court ruling is enlightening.

The current cavalier uneducated and short sighted, self interested approach of the Republican party and the risible leadership and direction of the Democratic party are conspiring to shrink the US economy, promote division within America and promote Chinese and Russian geo political agendas.

The blatant racism that has re-reared it's ugly head, the ignorance and promotion of anti science and anti expert sentiment is on it's way to breaking the US for the next 20 years. Dividing rich from poor only protects the rich for a short period of time.

The parallels between the unionist community in the north clinging to a way of life in the face of demographic change over the last 40 years should prove instructive.

Who fills the vacuum?

When will the US election politicians acting in the interest of the people of the country?

Been a while since the new deal...

[Gmac]

So called "Muslim" Travel Ban upheld by Supreme Court

Meltdown occurs in 3....2.....1...

What do you mean "so-called"?

That's exactly what it was. Giuliani is on record saying that finding a "legal" way to ban Muslims was his remit.

He's had to modify it and the conservative Supreme Court says the current version is within his gift as President, but that in itself doesn't make the whole issue morally right.

If it is a "Muslim ban"  it is a pretty ineffective one, considering it doesn't apply to 88% of the worlds Muslim, but believe what you want

It was as much as he thought he could get away with.

YOU believe what YOU want, but both Giuliani and Trump are on the record.

iran Syria chad Iraq Libya Sudan Somalia Yemen Venezuela North Korea are the countries on ban list all are either going through civil war or are basket cases where the government do not share or cooperate on terrorisn with any countries . A sovereign country should be able to decide who comes in and out of their country ,not USA problem most of these nations are Muslim