American Sports Thread

[deiseach]

What is the deal with there being a correlation between a quarterback passing the ball a lot during a game and defeat? A sign that he doesn't trust the rest of the team? Constantly being caught out and having to get rid or get sacked?

[AZOffaly]

It's normally a sign they are behind and trying to get points quickly.

It can also be a sign that the run game is rubbish, and the only option is to pass.

[deiseach]

Ah, right. So a lot of passes likely tells you the QB was trying to make up 50-ish yards at a time. Thanks.

[AZOffaly]

Well not so much 50ish yards, but trying to move the ball through the air, which is quicker, and also doesn't eat as much clock as an incomplete pass stops the clock.

Usually it's a sign that the game is going away from them, and they are trying to get back into it. Running the ball is a lot slower process.

There are some teams, Arizona being one recently, who pass the ball a lot more because the run game is poor, regardless of score in the game. This year the Cardinals ground game is a bit better, well a lot better than previous years, so they are a bit more balanced, which is the holy grail of the NFL. "A balanced offence" is a phrase you hear bandied about, because it keeps the opposition on their toes. In previous years the opposition knew they could basically stop the run with 6 defenders, and play nickel (5 defensive backs) to stop the pass. Now they have to keep 7 or 8 in the box, and go with standard defence on the WRs.

[Clov]

The flip side is also relevant - when teams are in front they tend to stop passing. Rushing plays keep the clock running which favours the leading team and turnovers are generally less frequent on rushing plays than passing plays.

That said, for my money most head coaches are too conservative with their play calling when leading. Most play "not to lose" when in front rather than staying aggressive and playing the football that got them lead in the first place.

[AZOffaly]

The flip side is also relevant - when teams are in front they tend to stop passing. Rushing plays keep the clock running which favours the leading team and turnovers are generally less frequent on rushing plays than passing plays.

That said, for my money most head coaches are too conservative with their play calling when leading. Most play "not to lose" when in front rather than staying aggressive and playing the football that got them lead in the first place.

Agree. It's one of the reasons I like Ariens. I understand being able to run the ball to take time off the clock, and put the game away, and it is great to do it, but loads of coaches, on 3rd and 4 say, will run it again to eat another 30 seconds rather than pass it and try pick up the 1st down.

[Clov]

Yeah Arians is a great coach in that respect. Belichek and Sean Payton 2 other coaches that like to stay aggressive with a lead.

Also think Ron Rivera is very good at this aspect of game management - last night being a great example. Down 3 at the end and within field goal range most coaches would have settled for a FG attempt. Not 'riverboat Ron'...

[stew]

Ah, right. So a lot of passes likely tells you the QB was trying to make up 50-ish yards at a time. Thanks.

As has been said Deiseach the running game might be poor or they are behind a couple of scores or they are running out of time and need to get back into the game, The Pats for example throw a lot of screen passes to soften you up and then Brady will throw deep, the reason why, they have excellent Wide receivers and the best tight end ever in Gronkowski.

The problem with throwing a lot is that it means your defense is on the field more than say a balanced attacking team because less time comes of the clock when you throw the ball a lot, when you have 350lb defensive players running on and off they are going to wear down and this is a big reason why teams that overthrow the ball lose more games than teams with a balanced attack, (well that and the opportunity for interceptions)

[cadhlancian]

All good analysis there! Bottom line is this. If you are consistently throwing the ball over 40 times , you more than likely will not be in the playoffs..

[Gabriel_Hurl]

Blue Jays live to fight another day

[gawa316]

All the hype & hysteria the Cubs got beating the Cardinals, and they are now going to get swept without putting up any sort of challenge.

[AZOffaly]

And more importantly they have fucked up the Back to the Future prediction. Boooo.

Gab, any thoughts on RA Dickey starting the 4th game there? When I heard he was starting such an important game I thought it was very risky. Knuckleballers are notoriously unpredictable. If the ball doesn't move much, then a 70 mph toss up to home plate is soon going to be dispatched to the upper seats.

[deiseach]

Useless piece of trivia of the day: this will be the first World Series featuring two expansion teams.

[screenexile]

And more importantly they have fucked up the Back to the Future prediction. Boooo.

Gab, any thoughts on RA Dickey starting the 4th game there? When I heard he was starting such an important game I thought it was very risky. Knuckleballers are notoriously unpredictable. If the ball doesn't move much, then a 70 mph toss up to home plate is soon going to be dispatched to the upper seats.

A bad call in hindsight but after performing well in game 4 at Texas you can see why they tried it. I thought all was lost only for a rally last night by Estrada. Still a big ask to win the last 2 games.

[AZOffaly]

That's what I mean about knuckleballers though. Even after a great showing you can never tell what he'll be like the next night. It's always a 50-50 proposition I think. With a regular pitcher form is much more predictable.