is there a war coming?

[muppet]

- How should the international community act on Syria in the short term (I.e now) to stop people being gassed to death or should they not act at all?

The UN Security Council is hamstrung by those countries who (ab)use their veto to support their own strategic interests and crap all over any ethical or moral considerations. This time it is the Russians' turn, but they all do it.

War is very a lucrative business for some Governments and its attraction is irresistible to manufacturers of munitions.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/iraq-orders-c-130js-05400/

July 25/08: The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Iraq's official request for 6 stretched C-130J-30 aircraft, which will supplement the 3 refurbished C-130E's that currently form Iraq's medium transport fleet.

The estimated cost is $1.5 billion, and the prime contractor will be Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company in Fort Worth, TX and Rolls-Royce Corporation in Indianapolis, IN. Going forward, up to 10 U.S. Government and 10 contractor representatives will participate in 2-week long annual technical and program management reviews. Lockheed Martin and Rolls Royce aren't the only contractors for this request, however, which also includes defensive equipment from Alliant Techsystems and BAE Systems. The detailed request includes:

6 stretched C-130J-30 aircraft identical to the USAF baseline standard
28 Rolls Royce AE 2100D3 engines, (24 installed, 4 spare)
8 of ATK's AN/AAR-47 Missile Warning Systems (6 installed, 2 spare)
8 of BAE's AN/ALE-47 Countermeasures Dispensing Systems  (6 installed, 2 spare)

Meanwhile it seems the rebels get some of their weapons from Assad's Army!

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/syria/120606/syrian-rebels-weapons-arms-revolution

[seafoid]

Some poetry for you Itchy....

The Unknown by Donald Rumsfeld

As we know, There are known knowns
There are things we know we know.
We also know There are known unknowns.
That is to say We know there are some things We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know We don't know.

Itchy reminds me of Jedward's X factor audition.

Not very good and incredibly annoying
but something intriguing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWwW_DYmxEw


He wants to  understand the Middle East
He definitely has the potential

Perhaps you could help him understand, then. He has asked a number of questions. That's usually how people arrive at an understanding. Here are just two from his selection:

- How should the international community act on Syria in the short term (I.e now) to stop people being gassed to death or should they not act at all?
- Would you support a unilateral intervention on behalf of Palestine by a western power?

These seem reasonable to me in the context that Assad is murdering his people, the opposition is an unholy alliance of all types from the moderate to the lunatics and the UN is unable to act because of Russia's veto. I haven't come to an opinion myself. I'd be interested in your opinion as someone who has spent time in the Middle east and probably has a better understanding of it than myself (or Itchy).

I told already answered Itchy's question 1.

Syria needs a peace conference sponsored by the countries that use the most Middle East Oil ie  India, China and the EU. There is going to be peace at the end of the war anyway- why not go straight to it now? 

Re q2 I think international law is the way to go for the Palestinians . Name a western power that's going to do anything for them while the Israelis run US Mid East policy. The main problem with the Palestine situation is Israel's insistence that it is above International law because of something that is in the Bible.

International law is the only way to safeguard Israel in the future as well. This quasi Prussian eternal war approach is going to end in a mess for them the way things are going.

 

[seafoid]

On Wednesday the Jihadi Nusra Font which is an ally of al Qa'ida attacked the Christian village of Ma'aloula which is one of only 3 towns in the world where Aramaic, the language that Jesus spoke, is still used.

These jihadis are the people the US wants to help.

[muppet]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23975030

UK has new evidence of use of Chemical Weapons.

Probably a bill, and a request for instructions.

[Count 10]

Really? Seems it depends who is getting killed. I'll ask Dixie and his buddies a few straight questions for hopefully some straight  answers...

- Why is it relevant what a country did in the past when they are trying to make decisions in the now.
Track record pure and simple

- Name a country that has the power to make a intervention of any sort in Syria that has not itself at some time committed a war crime.
Saudi Arabia but they are content to sit back and let others do the dirty work

- How should the international community act on Syria in the short term (I.e now) to stop people being gassed to death or should they not act at all.
Gas has been used once....yes one time too many, but cruise missile strikes/regime change is not going to help the ordinary Syrian

- Do you think the UN has any teeth to act on anything given that a number if countries have a Veto.
Useless as proved in Rwanda and Balkans
- Has the UN not failed Palestinians too.
Absolutely
- Would you support a unilateral intervention on behalf of Palestine by a western power.
Not going to happen....let's be honest

- How many people should be gassed to death before the West takes action.
How many deaths are acceptable full stop? After all 100,000 have died so far.

My honest attempts at answering your questions Itchy, I'd be interested in hearing your views

[seafoid]

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-september-4-2013/groundhog-deja-clusterf--k

[Itchy]

Really? Seems it depends who is getting killed. I'll ask Dixie and his buddies a few straight questions for hopefully some straight  answers...

- Why is it relevant what a country did in the past when they are trying to make decisions in the now.
Track record pure and simple

- Name a country that has the power to make a intervention of any sort in Syria that has not itself at some time committed a war crime.
Saudi Arabia but they are content to sit back and let others do the dirty work

- How should the international community act on Syria in the short term (I.e now) to stop people being gassed to death or should they not act at all.
Gas has been used once....yes one time too many, but cruise missile strikes/regime change is not going to help the ordinary Syrian

- Do you think the UN has any teeth to act on anything given that a number if countries have a Veto.
Useless as proved in Rwanda and Balkans
- Has the UN not failed Palestinians too.
Absolutely
- Would you support a unilateral intervention on behalf of Palestine by a western power.
Not going to happen....let's be honest

- How many people should be gassed to death before the West takes action.
How many deaths are acceptable full stop? After all 100,000 have died so far.

My honest attempts at answering your questions Itchy, I'd be interested in hearing your views

Thanks Count, I appreciate that you at least tried although I would not agree with everythingyou say. I will answer in return...

Why is it relevant what a country did in the past when they are trying to make decisions in the now. If, before considering a countries moral right to respond to such a thing we should check their CV for past discretions then nothing will ever be done. The reason I asked this question was because Dixie was congratulating some boys that were heckling Kerry about how the US used WMD's, presumable referring to Hiroshima 60 years ago! It is not relevant as every country of influence has skeletons in the closest - The US, the Russians, the Chinese, the germans, the french and the brits - all of them. If they are all to be cast aside then there is no hope of anything being done. This might grind at people but this is the real world where real solutions must be worked on.

Name a country that has the power to make a intervention of any sort in Syria that has not itself at some time committed a war crime. The answer to this is simple, none of them. Saudi Arabia is a dictatorship with a horrendous record on human rights. The German in WW2, The French in Algeria, The Brits in Ireland, The Russians in Chechnya etc etc. There are no good guys I'm afraid.

Do you think the UN has any teeth to act on anything given that a number if countries have a Veto. Agreed, completely useless. So what is to be done when intervention of some sort is required and the Russians (in Syrias case) or the Yanks (in Israels case) prevent anything being done. Unilateral action is necessary or otherwise you sit back and do nothing as the slaughter continues in the glow of the fact you are obeying "international law". Inaction goes against the meaning of international law.

Would you support a unilateral intervention on behalf of Palestine by a western power. It may be unlikely but I'd like to know would you support it? I certainly would. Intervention could be a boycott or expelling diplomats or just unilaterally helping Palestinians.

How many people should be gassed to death before the West takes action. No more. Assad has crossed a line and action is needed. If none is taken then we can expect the gassing  to continue and increase. Future generations would look back and be  disgusted with us in the west. The Yanks are the best of a bad lot and I support their proposal to target some strategic military targets from the air for a short period, for no more than to act as a deterent. Its not perfect but its better than doing nothing or waffling at the UN or trying to organise a conference that would achieving nothing as the will is not there. I have yet to hear any other practical proposals on how to deter Assad. Some are more worried about handing some advantage to Israel than they are to protect innocent women and children from Sarin gas at the hands of a crazed loon.

[boojangles]

Some poetry for you Itchy....

The Unknown by Donald Rumsfeld

As we know, There are known knowns
There are things we know we know.
We also know There are known unknowns.
That is to say We know there are some things We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know We don't know.

Itchy reminds me of Jedward's X factor audition.

Not very good and incredibly annoying
but something intriguing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWwW_DYmxEw


He wants to  understand the Middle East
He definitely has the potential

Perhaps you could help him understand, then. He has asked a number of questions. That's usually how people arrive at an understanding. Here are just two from his selection:

- How should the international community act on Syria in the short term (I.e now) to stop people being gassed to death or should they not act at all?
- Would you support a unilateral intervention on behalf of Palestine by a western power?

These seem reasonable to me in the context that Assad is murdering his people, the opposition is an unholy alliance of all types from the moderate to the lunatics and the UN is unable to act because of Russia's veto. I haven't come to an opinion myself. I'd be interested in your opinion as someone who has spent time in the Middle east and probably has a better understanding of it than myself (or Itchy).

The international community firstly has to let the UN inspectors carry out their work. The UN is the only body with the right to actually intervene but the full facts need to be determined first. People will die in the meantime unfortunately but that is a sad fact of this mess. Is the option of a ground force of UN peacekeepers to limit civilian casualties an option? Is that viewed as intervention and can it be vetoed by the Power 5?
Syria (and most of the Middle East) is an outrageous mess and is the worst humanitarian crisis of this century so far but as far as I am concerned and the past century proves my point that any western military intervention will just make the scenario a whole lot worse. Western intervention in this part of the world has caused alot of the instability already and if Obama, Cameron or Hollande think they can make matters better by bombing the shit out of the place then they are dreaming.
I'm of the opinion that in the long run the Syrian people need to determine the path to go down. There are very few cases in history where outside military intervention has improved the internal situation in the long term.

[johnneycool]

The international community firstly has to let the UN inspectors carry out their work. The UN is the only body with the right to actually intervene but the full facts need to be determined first. People will die in the meantime unfortunately but that is a sad fact of this mess. Is the option of a ground force of UN peacekeepers to limit civilian casualties an option? Is that viewed as intervention and can it be vetoed by the Power 5?
Syria (and most of the Middle East) is an outrageous mess and is the worst humanitarian crisis of this century so far but as far as I am concerned and the past century proves my point that any western military intervention will just make the scenario a whole lot worse. Western intervention in this part of the world has caused alot of the instability already and if Obama, Cameron or Hollande think they can make matters better by bombing the shit out of the place then they are dreaming.
I'm of the opinion that in the long run the Syrian people need to determine the path to go down. There are very few cases in history where outside military intervention has improved the internal situation in the long term.

These lads don't want to make these places better for the ordinary Syrians, they want their man in power. Russia have a man in power there now they're happy with so irrespective of what proof the UN inspectors reveal about the gas attack they'll not sign up to any form of intervention if it means toppling Assad. Ordinary Syrians or all creeds can go on dying in the mean time.

Lets not kid ourselves that the Americans, British, French, Russians or whoever are do gooders, they're not, there has to be ulterior motives for the lot of them to get involved.

A UN peace keeping force is the only option, and then some sort of amnesty or process to take as many guns out of these areas as possible.

[thejuice]

Henry Kissinger reckons the Balkanisation of Syria is the only workable outcome. I think he may be right, but it's something that may have to spread elsewhere in the middle east. As I pointed out in the other thread some time ago, the sectarian divisions aren't reflected in the post colonial borders.

The middle east is unlikely to buy into liberal-cultural amnesia, as the west has done, so these divisions are likely to stick around for a while till they get sick of hating and killing the other side.

Sadly nations borders are written and re-written in blood so after the middle east has resettled itself after much strife we might see a little bit of peace.

[seafoid]

Henry Kissinger reckons the Balkanisation of Syria is the only workable outcome. I think he may be right, but it's something that may have to spread elsewhere in the middle east. As I pointed out in the other thread some time ago, the sectarian divisions aren't reflected in the post colonial borders.

The middle east is unlikely to buy into liberal-cultural amnesia, as the west has done, so these divisions are likely to stick around for a while till they get sick of hating and killing the other side.

Sadly nations borders are written and re-written in blood so after the middle east has resettled itself after much strife we might see a little bit of peace.

The levant was divided into 4 countries by the brits and the french. The brits carved out palestine to give to the zionists and the french made lebanon for the maronites. Balkanising syria would suit Israel whose goal is broken neighbours mired in war. Turkey won't tolerate the syrian kurds being granted independence.
How would kissinger divide damascus and aleppo?

Maybe the syrian people should be let decide their future.
Qatar is funding the jihadis- should it be allowed host the world cup?

[omagh_gael]

Sometimes you just have to take your hat off to those men who are one step above us mere mortals. The world salutes you James. You are beautiful.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11753050

[lawnseed]

I dont subcribe to your point of view if the russians love their children too..

A war with russia? Europe and america would hammer them in about a month.. Retreating back from the advancing euro/american forces wouldnt work this time for russia as it did against napolean or the germans such is the strenght of such an army..

I see the north koreans fired a couple of missiles to stir the shit that guy needs a slap

[muppet]

I dont subcribe to your point of view if the russians love their children too..

A war with russia? Europe and america would hammer them in about a month.. Retreating back from the advancing euro/american forces wouldnt work this time for russia as it did against napolean or the germans such is the strenght of such an army..

I see the north koreans fired a couple of missiles to stir the shit that guy needs a slap

A month?

Which month? I hope they don't make the mistake Napolean & Hitler did. Or the one they made before in the Crimea. Remember the quick shock & awe war promised in Iraq?

Does anyone ever learn anything?

[muppet]

...and there is next to zero chance of a war.