26 County General Election 2020

[RadioGAAGAA]

One thing that we are reminded of from this week, is that the Dublin government/media are on a par with the Belfast and London media/government when it comes to the old propaganda and SF bashing.

A frenzy of coordinated bashing.
What is of surprise though is the lack of impact, even managing opposite effects. Something has changed in a large portion of today's  u30 generation.

They don't watch the news or read papers.

Indeed its debatable as to whether they get much information about current affairs at all.

[ballinaman]

One thing that we are reminded of from this week, is that the Dublin government/media are on a par with the Belfast and London media/government when it comes to the old propaganda and SF bashing.

A frenzy of coordinated bashing.
What is of surprise though is the lack of impact, even managing opposite effects. Something has changed in a large portion of today's  u30 generation.

They don't watch the news or read papers.

Indeed its debatable as to whether they get much information about current affairs at all.

Most definitely , millenials are wired differently in terms of social interaction due to the world that they have grown up in.

I'd very much looking forward to seeing FG smashed but the likelihood of a FF resurgence is taking the shine off things from my perspective.

[Main Street]

One thing that we are reminded of from this week, is that the Dublin government/media are on a par with the Belfast and London media/government when it comes to the old propaganda and SF bashing.

A frenzy of coordinated bashing.
What is of surprise though is the lack of impact, even managing opposite effects. Something has changed in a large portion of today's  u30 generation.

They don't watch the news or read papers.

Indeed its debatable as to whether they get much information about current affairs at all.

With that gnorance and condescension, no wonder you haven't a clue.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/newton-emerson-sinn-f%C3%A9in-is-not-a-radical-party-1.4162859

Newton Emerson: Sinn Féin is not a radical party

The party's record in power in the North is characterised by caution


Newton Emerson


Sinn Féin's rise in the polls south of the Border has nothing to do with Northern Ireland, or a united Ireland, let alone with developments at Stormont.

That is no excuse for not looking at the party's record in Stormont to judge how it might perform in the Republic, either in government or supporting a minority government.

Some attention has been paid to Sinn Fein's policy differences North and South but on its own this is facile point-scoring.

Different policies are frequently appropriate in two very different jurisdictions and it is a sign of responsibility to adopt them. Sinn Féin can be at its most irresponsible when attempting all-Ireland consistency. It effectively went on strike at Stormont between 2012 and 2015 to avoid southern criticism over welfare reform.

Sinn Féin returned to Stormont in 2007 to lead the Executive with the DUP. It has since swerved around every difficult decision it could
Views are now being expressed in the Republic about the party's potential danger and radicalism, which reveals how little notice the South pays to the North and how badly it needs an overall picture of Sinn Féin's time in office.

Many people in Northern Ireland believed Sinn Féin would bring about dramatic change when it first entered Stormont 21 years ago but these hopes or fears were wildly misplaced.

The party's record has been characterised above all by caution. As a rule, in policy terms, it moves slowly, springs no surprises and would rather do nothing than upset almost anyone who might ever conceivably vote for it.


This is not explained by constraints in the Stormont system. There is plenty of money and scope to seek dramatic change within devolution's remit.



A contradictory feature of powersharing is that it tends to turn each government department into a silo, with each minister largely free to attempt anything that does not require changing the budget or the law.


The DUP has long made an issue of Sinn Féin ministerial "solo runs", claiming they were a basic flaw in the Belfast Agreement and that preventing them was the main purpose of the 2006 St Andrews Agreement.

Yet there has only been one significant Sinn Féin solo-run, in 2002, when the then education minister Martin McGuinness abolished academic selection.

Any surprises would be because Sinn Féin is inevitably a different party in the South
This was in practice a hit-and-run, signed off hours before a lengthy Stormont collapse. It exacerbated the problem it was meant to solve, with schools adopting their own unregulated entrance tests. Sinn Féin eventually abandoned the education portfolio and has never attempted anything like it again, in any department.

The 2002 decision was unpopular with many Catholic grammar schools and hence with many Catholics, making it a vanishingly rare case of Sinn Féin putting its progressive principles before electoral self-interest. Even then, McGuinness only approved it on his way out the door, perhaps thinking there might never be another Assembly election.

Sinn Féin returned to Stormont in 2007 to lead the Executive with the DUP. It has since swerved around every difficult decision it could but this is a characteristic it shares with the DUP.

Celtic Cuba
Policies that it has implemented with the DUP include devolving corporation tax with the intention of lowering it, reducing civil service numbers by 10 per cent through a generous redundancy scheme and using UK-imposed private finance schemes to build schools and hospitals, none of which indicates plotting for a Celtic Cuba.

It is true that when it all became too much for Sinn Féin it stalled Executive business, failed to produce a budget and finally walked out. Perhaps it could play similar games with a Dublin government. However, it would have far fewer options to do so without simply casting itself back into opposition.


It is also true that politics at Stormont is interspersed with divisive rows over nationality, identity and the legacy of the Troubles, sometimes stirred up by Sinn Féin for cynical purposes. But this cannot happen in the Republic, due to the lamentable shortage of Protestants.

Sinn Féin's relationship with the IRA raises serious questions North and South, one of which is whether Provisional IRA membership should still be an offence. Legalisation might help sort out the political from the criminal, which will take on a new urgency if Sinn Féin is included in a sovereign government.

If other parties in the Republic believe Sinn Féin is run by a backroom Belfast cabal, northern precedent suggests it would not pursue subversion or extremism once in southern office.

Any surprises would be because Sinn Féin is inevitably a different party in the South, due to political and social circumstances. Broadly speaking, its voters are more motivated by bread-and-butter issues and its representatives and activists are more middle-class.

That might make for more radical postures in the conventional, left-wing sense. But the real danger is where some of Sinn Féin's supporters might turn next, after a spell of power or influence reveals it is a party much like all the others.

[RadioGAAGAA]

With that gnorance and condescension, no wonder you haven't a clue.

Social media is not a source of information ffs.

Fukin "like" this and pass it on 20 times and ye'll win the lottery at the weekend or some similar shite 

[Rudi]

Can someone please dumb down how the voting system works. How are quotas decided upon, how are surplus votes distrubuted etc

Lets say, first preference votes in a 5 seat cons.

x has 12,200
y has 7,800
z has 7,400
a has 4,300
b has 3,600
c has 2,100
d has 1,700
e has 1,000
f has 670
g has 410
h has 200
I has 120

[Lar Naparka]

Can someone please dumb down how the voting system works. How are quotas decided upon, how are surplus votes distrubuted etc

Lets say, first preference votes in a 5 seat cons.

x has 12,200
y has 7,800
z has 7,400
a has 4,300
b has 3,600
c has 2,100
d has 1,700
e has 1,000
f has 670
g has 410
h has 200
I has 120

(Can't say I fully understand it.)
Courtesy of The Journal:
Explainer: How does Ireland's voting system work?
Here's all you need to know about what happens to your vote.
AS PEOPLE GET set to vote in the general election tomorrow, we're going to take a look at how the Irish voting system works.
In Ireland, all elections – Dáil, Seanad, presidential, European and local elections – are decided through proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV).
Voters indicate their first and subsequent choices for the candidates on the ballot paper by marking the relevant number in the box beside a person's name. You indicate your first choice by writing '1′ opposite that candidate and '2′ opposite your second choice, and so on.
By doing so, you are instructing that your vote be transferred to your second preference if your first choice is either elected with a surplus of votes over the quota or is eliminated.
If your second choice is elected or eliminated, your vote may be transferred to your third choice, and so on.
You can order some or all candidates or stop at just one. If there's someone you really DON'T want to see elected, it's best to give preferences to everyone but them. As the count continues and the number of non-transferable votes add up, the number of votes required to be elected decreases.
How are the votes counted?
At the count centre, all the ballot papers are mixed and then sorted according to first preferences. Spoiled papers – which Citizens Information lists as those without an official stamp; those which do not indicate a clear choice, for example, if you have indicated number 1 twice on the paper; or if anything is written on the ballot paper by which the voter can be identified – are removed.
The quota, the minimum number of valid votes each candidate must get to be elected, is then calculated.
The Department of the Environment notes that in a three-seat constituency, for example, the quota is a quarter of the valid votes, plus one – only three candidates can get this number of votes. In a four-seater, the quota is a fifth of the valid votes, plus one, and so on.
Surplus votes
If a candidate receives more than the quota on any count, the surplus votes are transferred to the remaining candidates in proportion to the next available preferences indicated by voters.
Citizens Information has given this breakdown as an example:
If candidate A receives 900 votes more than the quota on the first count and, on examining their votes, it is found that 30% of these have next available preferences for candidate B, then candidate B does not get 30% of all candidate A's votes, candidate B gets 30% of A's surplus, that is, 270 votes (30% of 900).
Where a candidate is elected at the second count or a later one, only the votes that brought them over the quota are examined in the surplus distribution – i.e. the votes last transferred to the elected candidate.


The manner in which the surplus is distributed depends on whether the number of transferable papers is greater than, less than or equal to the surplus. You can read more about that here.
If two or more candidates exceed the quota at the same time, the larger surplus is distributed first. The surplus must be distributed if it can elect a candidate or save the lowest candidate from elimination or qualify a candidate to recoup their election expenses or deposit.
Candidates at most elections can recoup their election expenses (up to a maximum of €8,700 at a Dáil election), provided the number of votes they receive at the count exceeds one quarter of the quota.
The last seat can be filled either by a candidate exceeding the quota or being elected without reaching the quota because it is clear that they are ultimately going to be elected.
Candidates can ask for a recount of a particular count or of the entire count. More information on the process is available here.
Pros and cons
Some people argue the PR-STV system is too candidate-focused and leads to localism – i.e. TDs focusing on issues in their local area, rather than pursuing a national vision.
A 2011 Oireachtas report found that this might deter nationally-minded individuals from entering politics, as well as poor national planning "as legislators clamour to deliver services to their own areas".
However, the report also notes there are "equally profound problems with the likely alternatives to PR-STV", stating:
If local accountability is reduced, a clearly articulated 'national interest' to which parliamentarians are accountable is needed.
It has been argued the current system leads to more variety for voters – i.e. TDs being returned from a number of parties. However, in constituencies that elect fewer TDs, it can be very difficult for smaller parties to gain a significant foothold.
As a result of PR-STV, coalition governments are very common in Ireland. The last single party government here was the 1987-89 Fianna Fáil administration.
First past the post
PR-STV is relatively unique, Ireland and Malta are the only countries to use it.
The first past the post system in single-seat constituencies is the second most popular voting system in the world. It's used in the UK, US, India and Canada.
The candidate with the most votes in each constituency becomes an MP. All other votes are disregarded. This type of voting is also known as single member plurality, simple majority voting or plurality voting.
The Oireachtas report mentioned above also looked into various other types of voting, such as alternative or preferential voting, and the closed list system. You can read more information about them here.

[Shamrock Shore]

Blueshirts are in for a bad day.

To hear the hysterics of Regina Doherty, on the radio this morning castigating Jim O'Callaghan (FF TD in Dublin) for defending the aul divil himself, Gerry Adams, in some case, just showed how desperate they now are.

They won't come third.......but they will lose between 10-15 seats. Hopefully that dreadful woman mentioned above is one of them

[macdanger2]

Can someone please dumb down how the voting system works. How are quotas decided upon, how are surplus votes distrubuted etc

Lets say, first preference votes in a 5 seat cons.

x has 12,200
y has 7,800
z has 7,400
a has 4,300
b has 3,600
c has 2,100
d has 1,700
e has 1,000
f has 670
g has 410
h has 200
I has 120

Quota is (number of votes cast /(number of seats +1))+1

Bottom person is eliminated on each count but there also be more than one eliminated e.g. In the example above, h & I are both eliminated since even if h got all of i's transfers, h would still be bottom.

When a candidate is eliminated, each vote is transferred to the person who got #2 on the ballot (in later counts, this could be down to number 5, 6, etc. If the voter hasn't selected a #2, the vote doesn't transfer

When someone is elected with 10000 votes (quota is 9000) and has a surplus of say 1000, they pick bundles of ballots at random from those 10000 votes and distribute them in the same way as above. (I don't think that they recount all 10000 votes and distribute them pro rata as in the article below but I'm open to correction on that)

[macdanger2]

Blueshirts are in for a bad day.

To hear the hysterics of Regina Doherty, on the radio this morning castigating Jim O'Callaghan (FF TD in Dublin) for defending the aul divil himself, Gerry Adams, in some case, just showed how desperate they now are.

They won't come third.......but they will lose between 10-15 seats. Hopefully that dreadful woman mentioned above is one of them

Would be delighted to see her gone, she's useless.

[Rossfan]

In the 26 Cos it's a 'random sample" which in practice is taken from the top of the bundle, meaning a lot of them are in fact already transferred in from other candidates.
This is one reason for narrow losers calling a recount as different votes may get transferred after they're all mixed up again.
In the 6 Cos they divide up the whole lot and then allocate the surplus pro rata.

[Rudi]

Blueshirts are in for a bad day.

To hear the hysterics of Regina Doherty, on the radio this morning castigating Jim O'Callaghan (FF TD in Dublin) for defending the aul divil himself, Gerry Adams, in some case, just showed how desperate they now are.

They won't come third.......but they will lose between 10-15 seats. Hopefully that dreadful woman mentioned above is one of them

I particularly despise that yoke.

Would be delighted to see her gone, she's useless.

[Rudi]

Can someone please dumb down how the voting system works. How are quotas decided upon, how are surplus votes distrubuted etc

Lets say, first preference votes in a 5 seat cons.

x has 12,200
y has 7,800
z has 7,400
a has 4,300
b has 3,600
c has 2,100
d has 1,700
e has 1,000
f has 670
g has 410
h has 200
I has 120

Quota is (number of votes cast /(number of seats +1))+1

Bottom person is eliminated on each count but there also be more than one eliminated e.g. In the example above, h & I are both eliminated since even if h got all of i's transfers, h would still be bottom.

When a candidate is eliminated, each vote is transferred to the person who got #2 on the ballot (in later counts, this could be down to number 5, 6, etc. If the voter hasn't selected a #2, the vote doesn't transfer

When someone is elected with 10000 votes (quota is 9000) and has a surplus of say 1000, they pick bundles of ballots at random from those 10000 votes and distribute them in the same way as above. (I don't think that they recount all 10000 votes and distribute them pro rata as in the article below but I'm open to correction on that)

Thats what I thought, the distrubution of the surplus done at random is a bit mad, better to do it on a pro rata basis. Thanks to both Mayo lads for the reply.

[shark]

Can someone please dumb down how the voting system works. How are quotas decided upon, how are surplus votes distrubuted etc

Lets say, first preference votes in a 5 seat cons.

x has 12,200
y has 7,800
z has 7,400
a has 4,300
b has 3,600
c has 2,100
d has 1,700
e has 1,000
f has 670
g has 410
h has 200
I has 120

Quota is (number of votes cast /(number of seats +1))+1

Bottom person is eliminated on each count but there also be more than one eliminated e.g. In the example above, h & I are both eliminated since even if h got all of i's transfers, h would still be bottom.

When a candidate is eliminated, each vote is transferred to the person who got #2 on the ballot (in later counts, this could be down to number 5, 6, etc. If the voter hasn't selected a #2, the vote doesn't transfer

When someone is elected with 10000 votes (quota is 9000) and has a surplus of say 1000, they pick bundles of ballots at random from those 10000 votes and distribute them in the same way as above. (I don't think that they recount all 10000 votes and distribute them pro rata as in the article below but I'm open to correction on that)

Thats what I thought, the distrubution of the surplus done at random is a bit mad, better to do it on a pro rata basis. Thanks to both Mayo lads for the reply.

The random method is statistically sound though. Of course, if it leads to a tiny difference between two candidates then a recount is justified.

[armaghniac]

Thats what I thought, the distrubution of the surplus done at random is a bit mad, better to do it on a pro rata basis. Thanks to both Mayo lads for the reply.

In the 6 counties, all votes are counted for transfers and weighted, so a candidate could get 345.5 votes transferred.
In the 26 counties this does not happen in general, but from the radio this moring it seems it does happen on the first count if a candidate exceeds the quota