26 County General Election 2020

[five points]

Employment might be thriving but there's a homelessness crisis, young people in good jobs with good wages simply cannot afford to buy houses and are being completely and utterly fleeced by a private rental market that has been brought about by government policy by FG/FF that shows no interest whatsoever in controlling the rental market.

No its been brought about by government and opposition consensus since 2009 that we no longer need any new houses or apartments to be built, even though the population was rising. 

Local authrorities are state bodies, who act under the policies implemented by government - if it is a case of them failing to meet the targets, then it's a failure of the government.

Exactly, the government is incapable of building a children's hospital. How can it be trusted to build 50,000 houses or apartments every year?

FF wrecked the state by selling off council houses into private ownership, it's the FF/FG way - privatise, privatise, privatise valuable resources to big business and vulture funds.

The council houses were sold to their occupiers, mainly because the councils could no longer afford the considerable cost of maintaining and renewing them. There were no big property conglomerates in this country a decade ago.

Look at they utterly destroyed the health service, their policies have priced out the young people of home ownership and destroyed the health service.

Agreed, more failures of the State. The State that you want to take on even more responsibilities.

The last part just proves you are on the wind up.

It does not. You mightn't like what I am saying but I most certainly am not an any windup.

The problem is the rental market, the problem is that people cannot afford to buy or rent in the current climate, it's to do with weak policy on rent control, it's to do with the stripping of state owned housing by the FF market. FF/FG are all about privitisation to the wealthy businessmen and vulture funds.

Yada yada yada. Build 100,000 extra houses or apartments in the next 2 years and the rent ripoffs will disappear like snow off a rope. 10 years ago rents were a lot cheaper as tenants had plenty of availability and could pick and choose and shop around. The squeeze on availability created a cartel who could charge what they liked. Once you restore that availability, you kill the cartel, and the problem will solve itself.

Ireland is one of the most unequal countries in Europe when it comes to healthcare access and a healthcare crisis exists exacerbates this

Fix the HSE and you fix this. But this will involve letting go a lot of staff, streamlining admin and reorganising the way things are done. I can't see the State managing this even if they want to. Can you?

Dublin has the third highest residential rents in Europe, mortgage interest rates in Ireland are way above those in Europe and a homelessnes crisis exists due to this.

See above.

When these situations exist, and not only to they exist but they continue to get worse, a good economy is merely a sideshow. Wealthy inequality is growing under the policies of FF/FG and that's the aim of their policies.

The problem is much deeper than wealth inequality. Unless you're advocating full communism, a surgeon will always earn a multiple of a dustman's pay.

[five points]

It doesn't agree with his neo liberal right wing mind.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Please don't come back with some pseudo economics bullshit.


Simple supply and demand. If there were not investors buying houses to let, then house prices would drop - and since there are pretty much as many homes as there are folks looking homes - they'd drop to a level where people (who are right now priced out of the market) could actually afford to buy.

Worst is - its only getting harder and harder as investors accumulate more purchasing power off the rent paid by those who are already struggling to save deposits to compete with their landlords in the housing market.

Do you want an answer or do you not? I can answer you easily if you wish but if you've made up your mind already, I'd be only wasting my time.

Your call.

You don't have an answer that isn't grounded in the waffle and shite of your pseudo-economics. Simply because there is no answer.


The market always has a fundamental basis in supply and demand. Removing landlords from the equation suddenly fixes demand as a direct function of population headcount. Which then means prices will drop significantly unless a rake of houses are demolished.

For those that cannot afford a deposit, the price of housing will be such that social housing could easily be acquired by govt.

[five points]

You don't have an answer that isn't grounded in the waffle and shite of your pseudo-economics. Simply because there is no answer.

Really? I have explained my reasoning at length in this thread. Your resort to insult suggests you're not particularly interested anyway.

The market always has a fundamental basis in supply and demand. Removing landlords from the equation suddenly fixes demand as a direct function of population headcount. Which then means prices will drop significantly unless a rake of houses are demolished.

Demand is already a function of population headcount. Had our population declined in the past decade we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. 

In addition, the available housing stock will always diminish unless older homes that are falling into dereliction or disrepair are either renovated or replaced by new housing. There has been little new building or renovation in recent times.

As our population has increased and the net stock of homes has fallen, so prices have risen in response to demand, even as many landlords have exited the market. This basic supply/demand equation will apply regardless of who owns the houses.

You can temporarily fix the prices of homes and their rents but doing so means that you kill any incentive for older homes to be renovated back into use or new ones to be built from scratch. So, as demand continues to increase, more people end up sleeping on other people's couches, in hostels and B&Bs or on the streets, along canals or under bridges.

[Rossfan]

Well lads and ladies now that we're down to the last 8 or 9 days before the vote and we've heard loads of waffle and fairytales - how do ye think it will end up?
Most think FF will be the largest party, FG to drop seats, SF despite their poor show last May to do pretty well and Greens to take up to 10 seats.
While the East and parts of the South are concerned about quality of life issues like traffic jams, commuters, childcare, school places , house prices we in the BMW have the same concerns as we've had for decades-jobs and now the gradual withdrawal of facilities in villages and small towns.

[Baile Brigín 2]

He is tight that FF simply aren't credible and want us to forget history. But the notion that FG made no mistakes is mindnumbingly stupid

Plenty of mistakes although some like water charges were unpopular choices. We do need in my opinion to pay for water, and many do down the country (farmers and those in rural water schemes). But the free stuff brigade are loud. Yes broadband and children's hospital are astronomical cost but will be essential to our future. There's no inexpensive way to do rural broadband and those talking about 5G don't realise how much that will cost and requires transmitters every 500 feet. Good luck with that. They left the economy in far better shape than they found it and it's ironic that Boris got a landslide for his poor Brexit deal that sliced off North and Leo and Coveney who achieved what is essentially the closest we've ever come to an all-island economy will be sent packing to the cheers of the British right and the Irish left (and look underneath and you won't see much difference between that lot).

This shit spin is why Leo will be P45d in 2 weeks

[five points]

Well lads and ladies now that we're down to the last 8 or 9 days before the vote and we've heard loads of waffle and fairytales - how do ye think it will end up?
Most think FF will be the largest party, FG to drop seats, SF despite their poor show last May to do pretty well and Greens to take up to 10 seats.
While the East and parts of the South are concerned about quality of life issues like traffic jams, commuters, childcare, school places , house prices we in the BMW have the same concerns as we've had for decades-jobs and now the gradual withdrawal of facilities in villages and small towns.

All very true. A friend who is a genuine political insider although tied to no party thinks Varadkar will beat the odds and win. I can't see it but maybe FF's weak leadership (not just Martin) will hurt them. Either way the people's concerns, east and west, will be forgotten for another 4 or 5 years.

[Taylor]

Without having any great insight into politics in the 26 are people going to end up voting for the same party who have shafted them over the years?

Much like Boris and the conservatives.

The alternatives are worse than what is currently in power?

[Hound]

Without having any great insight into politics in the 26 are people going to end up voting for the same party who have shafted them over the years?

Much like Boris and the conservatives.

The alternatives are worse than what is currently in power?

But what a party did in the distant past isn't relevant to what they'll do next. It's the current people in the party that need to be judged, not the former members.
In my opinion, it was Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan who made the unforgiveable mistakes. They're both gone, so I *could* vote for FF again. 
Of course, fair enough, if people think that it's still too early and there are still important members of the party who were around during Cowen's time and should share the blame.
But I think if you want to have a pop at Micheal Martin, have a pop at him for what he's doing or not doing - not for what previous party members did.

[Hound]

Well lads and ladies now that we're down to the last 8 or 9 days before the vote and we've heard loads of waffle and fairytales - how do ye think it will end up?
Most think FF will be the largest party, FG to drop seats, SF despite their poor show last May to do pretty well and Greens to take up to 10 seats.

Updated odds from the bookies (left column is current odds, right was the odds on January 20th)

Next Taoiseach:

1/7 Martin 1/5
4/1 Varadker 3/1
20/1 Mary Lou 25/1

Next government (need to have a Cabinet Minister to be part of the government, for the purposes of these odds:)

6/1 Fianna Fail/Green 6/1

14/1 FF/SD/Lab/Green 6/1

12/1 Fianna Fail/Independents 8/1

20/1 FG/Lab/SD/Green 10/1

6/1 FF/Green/Independents 10/1

12/1 FF/Lab/Green/Independents 11/1

12/1 FF/Lab/Green 12/1

16/1 Fine Gael/Fianna Fail 12/1

7/1 Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein 12/1

12/1 FF/SF/Independents

16/1 Fine Gael/Green 12/1

16/1 Fianna Fail Minority 14/1

33/1 FG/Green/Independents 14/1

20/1 Fine Gael/Independents 16/1

20/1 Fine Gael/Sinn Fein 18/1

20/1 Fianna Fail Majority 20/1

25/1 Fine Gael Minority 20/1

16/1 Fianna Fail/Labour 20/1

40/1 FG/Lab/Green/Independents 22/1

40/1 FG/Lab/Green 22/1

20/1 FF/Lab/Independents 22/1

33/1 Fine Gael/Labour 25/1

50/1 SF/SD/Lab/Green/PBP

[weareros]

He is tight that FF simply aren't credible and want us to forget history. But the notion that FG made no mistakes is mindnumbingly stupid

Plenty of mistakes although some like water charges were unpopular choices. We do need in my opinion to pay for water, and many do down the country (farmers and those in rural water schemes). But the free stuff brigade are loud. Yes broadband and children's hospital are astronomical cost but will be essential to our future. There's no inexpensive way to do rural broadband and those talking about 5G don't realise how much that will cost and requires transmitters every 500 feet. Good luck with that. They left the economy in far better shape than they found it and it's ironic that Boris got a landslide for his poor Brexit deal that sliced off North and Leo and Coveney who achieved what is essentially the closest we've ever come to an all-island economy will be sent packing to the cheers of the British right and the Irish left (and look underneath and you won't see much difference between that lot).

This shit spin is why Leo will be P45d in 2 weeks

Not spin - as a parent with a child who needed specialised care, this hospital is worth any money for future Irish parents who will need it. The future of work will see many working from home so broadband will be essential. I can still get 15mbps in rural Roscommon so don't see why those types of speed can't be given to rest of rural Ireland. There was lots of things in the past that were seen as a great waste of money that are now seen as good decisions. Knock Airport for example.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Over a long time period, investment in infrastructure is usually always money well spent.

[RadioGAAGAA]

The market always has a fundamental basis in supply and demand. Removing landlords from the equation suddenly fixes demand as a direct function of population headcount. Which then means prices will drop significantly unless a rake of houses are demolished.

Demand is already a function of population headcount. Had our population declined in the past decade we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. 

Demand (in Dublin) is currently largely decoupled from price by the existence of landlords (and I obviously include REITs in that).

Remove landlords and price will be much more directly a function of population headcount.

In addition, the available housing stock will always diminish unless older homes that are falling into dereliction or disrepair are either renovated or replaced by new housing. There has been little new building or renovation in recent times.

As our population has increased and the net stock of homes has fallen, so prices have risen in response to demand, even as many landlords have exited the market. This basic supply/demand equation will apply regardless of who owns the houses.

There are ~20k new houses built every year in the ROI. Population growth is around 60k/year. Averaging 3 people per house would indicate increased stock is not too disproportionate to demand.

How does a family that is paying a mortgage compete when looking to buy with someone who has the income off the rent of 3 or 4 other houses?

https://www.worldfirst.com/uk/blog/your-money/investing/ireland-retains-top-position-as-europes-buy-to-let-hotspot/

So Real Estate Investment Trusts have been buying up houses that Irish men and women want, but now cannot afford.

You can temporarily fix the prices of homes and their rents but doing so means that you kill any incentive for older homes to be renovated back into use or new ones to be built from scratch. So, as demand continues to increase, more people end up sleeping on other people's couches, in hostels and B&Bs or on the streets, along canals or under bridges.

No one sensible, certainly not me (despite my daftness) is proposing "fixing price or rent", indeed, I posted to the exact opposite a few pages back.

Focusing on the reasons for the price rise rather than the price rise itself is the way to solve the problem.

[five points]

Demand (in Dublin) is currently largely decoupled from price by the existence of landlords (and I obviously include REITs in that).

Remove landlords and price will be much more directly a function of population headcount.

I have no idea what your point is here. The relationship between price and demand is one of the cornerstones of economics. A landlord who owns 5 or 500 houses doesn't live in all of them. The numbers of people accommodated in them should be more or less the same regardless of how the property is owned. In fact, due to houseshares, its probably arguable that more people per unit are accommodated in an average rental property than in an owner-occupied one. But the difference is neither here nor there.

There are ~20k new houses built every year in the ROI. Population growth is around 60k/year. Averaging 3 people per house would indicate increased stock is not too disproportionate to demand.

There is also a serious deficit in the housing stock arising from the first half the decade. Only 8,488 dwellings were completed in 2012. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-mip/measuringirelandsprogress2012/economy/economy-housing/

How does a family that is paying a mortgage compete when looking to buy with someone who has the income off the rent of 3 or 4 other houses?

https://www.worldfirst.com/uk/blog/your-money/investing/ireland-retains-top-position-as-europes-buy-to-let-hotspot/

So Real Estate Investment Trusts have been buying up houses that Irish men and women want, but now cannot afford.

That's all a direct consequence of high rents caused by demand caused by shortage of properties..

No one sensible, certainly not me (despite my daftness) is proposing "fixing price or rent", indeed, I posted to the exact opposite a few pages back.

Focusing on the reasons for the price rise rather than the price rise itself is the way to solve the problem.

Fair enough.

I don't think we're actually that far off each other in our perspectives here. But there's no way that getting rid of the landlords is going to solve anything. The limited trend in that direction in the past decade has already been catastrophic. There is huge demand for rental accommodation. What happens when all these people have nowhere to go?

[Baile Brigín 2]

He is tight that FF simply aren't credible and want us to forget history. But the notion that FG made no mistakes is mindnumbingly stupid

Plenty of mistakes although some like water charges were unpopular choices. We do need in my opinion to pay for water, and many do down the country (farmers and those in rural water schemes). But the free stuff brigade are loud. Yes broadband and children's hospital are astronomical cost but will be essential to our future. There's no inexpensive way to do rural broadband and those talking about 5G don't realise how much that will cost and requires transmitters every 500 feet. Good luck with that. They left the economy in far better shape than they found it and it's ironic that Boris got a landslide for his poor Brexit deal that sliced off North and Leo and Coveney who achieved what is essentially the closest we've ever come to an all-island economy will be sent packing to the cheers of the British right and the Irish left (and look underneath and you won't see much difference between that lot).

This shit spin is why Leo will be P45d in 2 weeks

Not spin - as a parent with a child who needed specialised care, this hospital is worth any money for future Irish parents who will need it. The future of work will see many working from home so broadband will be essential. I can still get 15mbps in rural Roscommon so don't see why those types of speed can't be given to rest of rural Ireland. There was lots of things in the past that were seen as a great waste of money that are now seen as good decisions. Knock Airport for example.

I am not arguing against the need for a childrens hospital.

The argument is the fact its the 6th most expensive building ever built and easily three times more expensive than the second most expensive hospital, which was a full campus.