26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

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What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

armaghniac

Quote from: Rossfan on January 23, 2020, 07:11:19 PM
Looks like Shinners to take Pringle's seat i nDún na nGall de réir pobal breith déanta ag TG4.

I note to that Peter Casey gets feck all, which has to be good thing on balance.

If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

RadioGAAGAA

Is there a massive demand for housing outside of Dublin (and its commuter towns)?

Surely the questions should be along the lines of:

1. Is the population of Ireland rising so quickly that there is a shortage of space?
   1.(a) If not, is it that external investors are pricing the indigenous people out of houses?
      1.(a)(i) If so, then introduce laws that make foreign holding of rental property in Ireland prohibitively expensive for the prospective landlord.
      1.(a)(ii) If not, then goto Q2
   1.(b) If yes, housing density within the cities needs to increase.

2. Is the demand rising uniformly across the country or is it concentrated in certain areas (i.e. Dublin)?
   2.(a)If uniform, then the number of new builds need to increase
   2.(b)If concentrated, then what can be done to more evenly spread demand around the country? Tax incentives? Better infrastructure? Education campuses?


Its not the "price of rent" or "price of housing" you need to tackle with some bullsh|t simpleton law that limits the price of X or Y - its the reasons behind the change.
i usse an speelchekor

macdanger2

Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on January 23, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
Quote from: weareros on January 23, 2020, 05:55:42 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 05:03:02 PM
Quote from: Applesisapples on January 23, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.

While I understand that view, in the case of cities like Dublin you need the artists, the wait staff, those who provide various services, to be able to live there otherwise you force on them a poor quality of life and the city loses too. I think if we can build more rental high rises (and sales), it's for the better of society if you allocate a certain percentage to low income and means test the applications. I think rent freeze is a terrible and populist idea by Sinn Fein and instead what should be done is a certain amount of rent stabilised apartments like they do in New York. As I said in previous posts we need to partner better with good property developers to solve this. Ged rid of obsession with owning. Put the bitteen of money in some index funds and you will get a far better return instead of the Mammy Philosophy of you need to own a home.

well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.

The European model of renting for life is okay so long as pensions are geared to allow people to afford to pay rent when they finish working. Currently, that's not possible for most pensioners in Ireland

marty34

Quote from: trailer on January 23, 2020, 10:23:11 AM
Quote from: marty34 on January 22, 2020, 10:13:07 PM
Quote from: trailer on January 22, 2020, 04:28:28 PM
Quote from: WT4E on January 21, 2020, 02:04:52 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Who's the SDLP canvassing for this election?

Eastwood's Fine Failure or Durkan's Fine Gael?  Both are two sides of the same coin!!


Ironic people talking about the economy and running the country when the children's hospital will be approx. £200 million, maybe more when completed, after what was the original cost - someone fill that figure in for me.

Oh yeah, they are great at economics alright.

Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

No lectures please on the economic ability of the big two.

Whatever. At least you can guarantee it will be electable and accountable politicians taking decisions. Not a bundle of provisionals in the Felons club.
SF don't operate like any normal political party. Those who are elected in SF aren't allowed to take decisions. That's not democracy.

No answer to who the SDLP is backing this election then?

Is it F Failure's Durkan of FF's Michael 'sit on the fence' Martin?

By the way, how's Colum getting on with Brexit? - has he stopped it yet? I'm tired waiting on the update.

He's running Stormont from London after giving out to previous leaders that this shouldn't be the case.

Applesisapples

Quote from: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 05:03:02 PM
Quote from: Applesisapples on January 23, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.
No you are not, affordable housing has to be built to a different spec/finish the cost only goes on to the developer (if there is any) the remaining houses are sold at what the market dictates. If you don't do this then people on lower incomes will never be able to afford housing. Good to see BCC is going this way. It is a policy very successfully deployed in GB.

trailer

Quote from: marty34 on January 24, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
Quote from: trailer on January 23, 2020, 10:23:11 AM
Quote from: marty34 on January 22, 2020, 10:13:07 PM
Quote from: trailer on January 22, 2020, 04:28:28 PM
Quote from: WT4E on January 21, 2020, 02:04:52 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Who's the SDLP canvassing for this election?

Eastwood's Fine Failure or Durkan's Fine Gael?  Both are two sides of the same coin!!


Ironic people talking about the economy and running the country when the children's hospital will be approx. £200 million, maybe more when completed, after what was the original cost - someone fill that figure in for me.

Oh yeah, they are great at economics alright.

Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

No lectures please on the economic ability of the big two.

Whatever. At least you can guarantee it will be electable and accountable politicians taking decisions. Not a bundle of provisionals in the Felons club.
SF don't operate like any normal political party. Those who are elected in SF aren't allowed to take decisions. That's not democracy.

No answer to who the SDLP is backing this election then?

Is it F Failure's Durkan of FF's Michael 'sit on the fence' Martin?

By the way, how's Colum getting on with Brexit? - has he stopped it yet? I'm tired waiting on the update.

He's running Stormont from London after giving out to previous leaders that this shouldn't be the case.

Is he?

Who's running SF now? Ted Howell?

Snapchap

Quote from: trailer on January 24, 2020, 09:43:41 AM
Quote from: marty34 on January 24, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
Quote from: trailer on January 23, 2020, 10:23:11 AM
Quote from: marty34 on January 22, 2020, 10:13:07 PM
Quote from: trailer on January 22, 2020, 04:28:28 PM
Quote from: WT4E on January 21, 2020, 02:04:52 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Who's the SDLP canvassing for this election?

Eastwood's Fine Failure or Durkan's Fine Gael?  Both are two sides of the same coin!!


Ironic people talking about the economy and running the country when the children's hospital will be approx. £200 million, maybe more when completed, after what was the original cost - someone fill that figure in for me.

Oh yeah, they are great at economics alright.

Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

No lectures please on the economic ability of the big two.

Whatever. At least you can guarantee it will be electable and accountable politicians taking decisions. Not a bundle of provisionals in the Felons club.
SF don't operate like any normal political party. Those who are elected in SF aren't allowed to take decisions. That's not democracy.

No answer to who the SDLP is backing this election then?

Is it F Failure's Durkan of FF's Michael 'sit on the fence' Martin?

By the way, how's Colum getting on with Brexit? - has he stopped it yet? I'm tired waiting on the update.

He's running Stormont from London after giving out to previous leaders that this shouldn't be the case.

Is he?

Who's running SF now? Ted Howell?

All joking aside, Trailer. Who do you vote for in the six counties, since you believe that voting for anyone other than the 'big two' parties in an election is just a waste and "a protest vote"?

five points

Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on January 23, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.

When owning over a lifetime, you pay the cost of your accommodation including its maintenance, and a premium to the mortgage financier in the form of bank interest, the latter which declines over time as the mortgage is repaid.

When renting over a lifetime, you pay the cost of your accommodation including its maintenance, plus a risk premium to the owner, plus their mortgage costs, plus the income tax that the State will levy on them in respect of the rents you pay to them.

This tax wedge makes renting a far more expensive option in the long run.

five points

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on January 23, 2020, 07:48:34 PM
Is there a massive demand for housing outside of Dublin (and its commuter towns)?

Surely the questions should be along the lines of:

1. Is the population of Ireland rising so quickly that there is a shortage of space?
   1.(a) If not, is it that external investors are pricing the indigenous people out of houses?
      1.(a)(i) If so, then introduce laws that make foreign holding of rental property in Ireland prohibitively expensive for the prospective landlord.
      1.(a)(ii) If not, then goto Q2
   1.(b) If yes, housing density within the cities needs to increase.

2. Is the demand rising uniformly across the country or is it concentrated in certain areas (i.e. Dublin)?
   2.(a)If uniform, then the number of new builds need to increase
   2.(b)If concentrated, then what can be done to more evenly spread demand around the country? Tax incentives? Better infrastructure? Education campuses?


Its not the "price of rent" or "price of housing" you need to tackle with some bullsh|t simpleton law that limits the price of X or Y - its the reasons behind the change.

Good questions well put.

Here's what I see.

- The population has increased reasonably dramatically.

- At the same time, the quality of some of the older housing stock (much of it built more than 40/50 years ago) has deteriorated beyond usefulness. For example the old Ballymun flats were uninhabitable and had to be knocked, so their replacement didn't add to the housing stock.

- There has been nearly no building in the last decade.

So the overall stock of housing per capita has plummeted.

And the regional development has been concentrated in the large urban areas. For example in the West, nobody wants to go to college in Belmullet or Ballina so Galway ends up with both a university and an IT. And the large employers will set up in Galway because that's where the graduates are. How to address this without doing harm is a big question.


Lar Naparka

Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on January 23, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
Quote from: weareros on January 23, 2020, 05:55:42 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 05:03:02 PM
Quote from: Applesisapples on January 23, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.

While I understand that view, in the case of cities like Dublin you need the artists, the wait staff, those who provide various services, to be able to live there otherwise you force on them a poor quality of life and the city loses too. I think if we can build more rental high rises (and sales), it's for the better of society if you allocate a certain percentage to low income and means test the applications. I think rent freeze is a terrible and populist idea by Sinn Fein and instead what should be done is a certain amount of rent stabilised apartments like they do in New York. As I said in previous posts we need to partner better with good property developers to solve this. Ged rid of obsession with owning. Put the bitteen of money in some index funds and you will get a far better return instead of the Mammy Philosophy of you need to own a home.

well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.
Based on personal experience, I disagree completely.
I bought a modest enough 3 bed semi in Dublin 5 back in 1991. It cost 30,000 punts and was just about at the top end of my budget. However, being in Dublin 5, it was centrally located and I knew it would prove a worthwhile investment. It was ideal as a small family unit with plenty of space front and back and kids could run around without imposing on neighbours to any great extent.
It was an average house in an average residential area but today the asking price for houses in this part of Dublin is between €450,000 and €500,000 and the likelihood is that prices will keep rising.
I own the house, lock, stock and barrel. (Whatever that means!)
We had a temporary glitch in the increase of house prices during the last recession but the trend is inexorably upwards. Prices are rising again. With the debatable exception of gold, I don't know of any other commodity that can increase in value as quickly.
If I had opted for rented accommodation back in '91, I'd still be paying rent, dead money, to some third party. I don't think one needs a degree in rocket science to figure that the rental costs since then would far exceed the amount of mortgage repayments I paid over 20 years. My mortgage repayments ended after 20 years whereas rental payments last for as long as I would be a resident in a rented property.
By any metric you care to mention, home ownership trumps rented accommodation.
Nil Carborundum Illegitemi

Rossfan

Certainly does in Ireland anyway plus renters have no security of tenure unless in Council housing.
That Ir£30k Lar - what multiple of your annual pay was that?
In those Continental Countries where renting is the norm what would the average rent per month be?
What sort of tenure have the renters?
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Mikhail Prokhorov

Quote from: Lar Naparka on January 24, 2020, 10:46:57 AM
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on January 23, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
Quote from: weareros on January 23, 2020, 05:55:42 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 05:03:02 PM
Quote from: Applesisapples on January 23, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.

While I understand that view, in the case of cities like Dublin you need the artists, the wait staff, those who provide various services, to be able to live there otherwise you force on them a poor quality of life and the city loses too. I think if we can build more rental high rises (and sales), it's for the better of society if you allocate a certain percentage to low income and means test the applications. I think rent freeze is a terrible and populist idea by Sinn Fein and instead what should be done is a certain amount of rent stabilised apartments like they do in New York. As I said in previous posts we need to partner better with good property developers to solve this. Ged rid of obsession with owning. Put the bitteen of money in some index funds and you will get a far better return instead of the Mammy Philosophy of you need to own a home.

well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.
Based on personal experience, I disagree completely.
I bought a modest enough 3 bed semi in Dublin 5 back in 1991. It cost 30,000 punts and was just about at the top end of my budget. However, being in Dublin 5, it was centrally located and I knew it would prove a worthwhile investment. It was ideal as a small family unit with plenty of space front and back and kids could run around without imposing on neighbours to any great extent.
It was an average house in an average residential area but today the asking price for houses in this part of Dublin is between €450,000 and €500,000 and the likelihood is that prices will keep rising.
I own the house, lock, stock and barrel. (Whatever that means!)
We had a temporary glitch in the increase of house prices during the last recession but the trend is inexorably upwards. Prices are rising again. With the debatable exception of gold, I don't know of any other commodity that can increase in value as quickly.
If I had opted for rented accommodation back in '91, I'd still be paying rent, dead money, to some third party. I don't think one needs a degree in rocket science to figure that the rental costs since then would far exceed the amount of mortgage repayments I paid over 20 years. My mortgage repayments ended after 20 years whereas rental payments last for as long as I would be a resident in a rented property.
By any metric you care to mention, home ownership trumps rented accommodation.

30 years ago this was a very different market, it is only one example, are you telling me that if i bought your house now for 450k, in 30 years it will be worth 7 million, complete nonsense. There are many stories of people getting lucky in the market, that's all it is, luck. The majority now are being sucked in by the banks to a lifetime of debt, the sad thing is that we do this willingly.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: five points on January 24, 2020, 10:31:43 AM
And the regional development has been concentrated in the large urban areas. For example in the West, nobody wants to go to college in Belmullet or Ballina so Galway ends up with both a university and an IT. And the large employers will set up in Galway because that's where the graduates are. How to address this without doing harm is a big question.

Yeah, its a tricky problem. Students will want the social life, so need a population centre - thats pretty much set in stone.

Businesses all need good access to workers - not all businesses need good (physical) access to customers (i.e. IT).
I suppose the questions then could become:
- do the workers need to live on the doorstep of work?
- do workers move to where work is located?
- what is acceptable commute time?
- does it change between car*, train, tram & walk? (*quality of road?)
- do the offices need to be big & few, or can they be small and many (distributed)?
- can workers work remotely?
- can workers for multiple end-employers share a common office space?


Using Galway as an example case - incentives to set up offices in the likes of Ennis or Athenry - or at least along the M6 or M18 corridors might help. But that might be too simple.

The govt maybe should look at a corporation tax scheme (for non manufacturing operations) that is a function of headcount (above a threshold - say 50 employees) and the density of that headcount per county (that the business has offices in). The more distributed you are below a concentration threshold, the lower your CT. The higher your concentration of employees per county above the threshold, the higher your CT.

Wouldn't be too difficult to administer as the headcount of organisations is relatively easy to keep track of - spot checks of offices can be done to ensure that people are working where the companies say they are.
i usse an speelchekor

armaghniac

Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on January 24, 2020, 11:33:39 AM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on January 24, 2020, 10:46:57 AM
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on January 23, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
Quote from: weareros on January 23, 2020, 05:55:42 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 05:03:02 PM
Quote from: Applesisapples on January 23, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.

While I understand that view, in the case of cities like Dublin you need the artists, the wait staff, those who provide various services, to be able to live there otherwise you force on them a poor quality of life and the city loses too. I think if we can build more rental high rises (and sales), it's for the better of society if you allocate a certain percentage to low income and means test the applications. I think rent freeze is a terrible and populist idea by Sinn Fein and instead what should be done is a certain amount of rent stabilised apartments like they do in New York. As I said in previous posts we need to partner better with good property developers to solve this. Ged rid of obsession with owning. Put the bitteen of money in some index funds and you will get a far better return instead of the Mammy Philosophy of you need to own a home.

well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.
Based on personal experience, I disagree completely.
I bought a modest enough 3 bed semi in Dublin 5 back in 1991. It cost 30,000 punts and was just about at the top end of my budget. However, being in Dublin 5, it was centrally located and I knew it would prove a worthwhile investment. It was ideal as a small family unit with plenty of space front and back and kids could run around without imposing on neighbours to any great extent.
It was an average house in an average residential area but today the asking price for houses in this part of Dublin is between €450,000 and €500,000 and the likelihood is that prices will keep rising.
I own the house, lock, stock and barrel. (Whatever that means!)
We had a temporary glitch in the increase of house prices during the last recession but the trend is inexorably upwards. Prices are rising again. With the debatable exception of gold, I don't know of any other commodity that can increase in value as quickly.
If I had opted for rented accommodation back in '91, I'd still be paying rent, dead money, to some third party. I don't think one needs a degree in rocket science to figure that the rental costs since then would far exceed the amount of mortgage repayments I paid over 20 years. My mortgage repayments ended after 20 years whereas rental payments last for as long as I would be a resident in a rented property.
By any metric you care to mention, home ownership trumps rented accommodation.

30 years ago this was a very different market, it is only one example, are you telling me that if i bought your house now for 450k, in 30 years it will be worth 7 million, complete nonsense. There are many stories of people getting lucky in the market, that's all it is, luck. The majority now are being sucked in by the banks to a lifetime of debt, the sad thing is that we do this willingly.

But you don't get a lifetime of debt, you get 20 or 25 years of debt. Then you own the house outright.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Baile Brigín 2

The options in this thread are depressing, and echo the media spin. Why does the government have to involve one of FFG? If you take the 'left' as SF, Greens, Labour, SD, PBP,  I4C and Solidarity, thats a higher poll than FFG. Heaven forbid that a leftist coalition be considered or debated.