26 County General Election 2020

[Angelo]

Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You've used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.

Yep, a typical Shinner.

Like the populist move to bring the pension age back to 65.
Who'd pay for that???

Beware if you've worked your bollix off in school, college and the workplace and are now earning €80k or more. SF will come to get you.

Plenty of people work their bollocks off for significanly less than €80k.

You sound like a Tatcherite.

[trailer]

Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You've used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.

Yep, a typical Shinner.

Like the populist move to bring the pension age back to 65.
Who'd pay for that???

Beware if you've worked your bollix off in school, college and the workplace and are now earning €80k or more. SF will come to get you.

I'm not a Shinner, but the UK will be paying their way in regards to reunification. That's not even up for discussion. They will obligations that they will simply have to meet. But if Unionists have a long road to travel many those comments show many Republicans and Nationalists have an even longer one.

[magpie seanie]

I said MOST Western and Midlands.
Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan are not West or Midlands.
Including Leitrim and Laois gives you around 7%.
Excluding those 2 double figures percentages gives you around 6%.
We Connacht people usually speak in broad indicative terms and leave the narrow literal interpretations to Northerners and Solicitors

Wow. That's some mental gymnastics! So basically you were right so long as everyone else accepts that:

1. Donegal (a county on the west coast) is not in the west, so must be excluded
2. Cavan and Monaghan (both landlocked counties) are not midland counties, so must be excluded
3. Leitrim & Laois can be excluded solely because SF's results there are far higher than suits your argument

Any other straws you can clutch to or is that it?

I said MOST Western and Midlands.

Indeed you did. And even if we indulged you staggering mental gymnastics above, and removed all the constituencies you asked up to remove), then most of the rest STILL had SF at over 5% going by the 2019 figures:

Roscommon 7.4%
Galway Co 4.8%
Galway City 5.4%
Mayo 7.4%
Sligo 8.2%
Longford 4.6%
Westmeath 5.8%
Offaly 4.6%


Wouldn't it just be easier to say, 'ok fair enough, I was wrong'?

It would have been.

[Snapchap]

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

[Rossfan]

Galway County, Offaly, Longford..
"Doubtful if SF would get more than 5% in most Western or Midland Constituencies"
My conditional prediction may or may not prove accurate as time will tell.
Antway if we're to have a Left leaning Government SF need to do the improbable and get nearly all their 40 or 41 candidates elected and need 39/40 left leaning TDs to support them.
A long long shot.

[weareros]

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.

[seafoid]

An FF/FG/FFS grand coalition is looking likely.
A bit more formal than the existing confidence and supply arrangement.

[Lar Naparka]

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.

Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.

[magpie seanie]

Opinion poll a few days ago (Irish Times) gave progressive parties 38% (SF 21, Green 8, Lab 5, SD 2, AAA-PBP 2), Conservatives 48% (FF 25 FG 23). Independents 14%. That's a comparative that shouldn't be ignored.

[Hound]

Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You've used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.

Yep, a typical Shinner.

Like the populist move to bring the pension age back to 65.
Who'd pay for that???

Beware if you've worked your bollix off in school, college and the workplace and are now earning €80k or more. SF will come to get you.

Plenty of people work their bollocks off for significanly less than €80k.

You sound like a Tatcherite.

Where did I say otherwise?

[Lar Naparka]

Opinion poll a few days ago (Irish Times) gave progressive parties 38% (SF 21, Green 8, Lab 5, SD 2, AAA-PBP 2), Conservatives 48% (FF 25 FG 23). Independents 14%. That's a comparative that shouldn't be ignored.

That seems about right and you can be sure the spin doctors in both of the big parties are fully aware of this as well. However, in all likelihood, polls like this one tend to underestimate the support FF/FG will get at the ballot box and, conversely, the minnows are likely to get less.
THe big two have a degree of organisation in every constituency in the land that no other party can match. THey have more canvassers to knock on doors, handout flyers and hang posters. ON election day, they will have cars to bring elderly/infirm voters to the centres.
Apart from all that, only the big two will have someone standing in every constituency in the country. The minnows and this includes SF have nowhere near as many candidates standing so their % vote can be misleading.
For instance the Greens in the above poll register 8%.
But 8% is their countrywide average and they won't be fielding candidates in every constituency so what they get in Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown or Dublin South or wherever, will need to be considerably more than 8% if they are to win a seat.

[weareros]

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.

Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.

If they both do okish they will continue the confidence and supply. But if Fine Gael take a bad beating, they will go into opposition to lick their wounds (as they should, and would be the smarter move for them). In which case, FF and SF will come under pressure to form a government, especially if they are the two parties with the momentum.

[Farrandeelin]

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.

Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.

If they both do okish they will continue the confidence and supply. But if Fine Gael take a bad beating, they will go into opposition to lick their wounds (as they should, and would be the smarter move for them). In which case, FF and SF will come under pressure to form a government, especially if they are the two parties with the momentum.

Maybe if someone such as Ó Cuiv was FF leader that would be possible. Cannot see FF/SF coalition under Martin. Also,SF would be betraying their own voters if that happened too in my opinion.

[weareros]

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.

Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.

If they both do okish they will continue the confidence and supply. But if Fine Gael take a bad beating, they will go into opposition to lick their wounds (as they should, and would be the smarter move for them). In which case, FF and SF will come under pressure to form a government, especially if they are the two parties with the momentum.

Maybe if someone such as Ó Cuiv was FF leader that would be possible. Cannot see FF/SF coalition under Martin. Also,SF would be betraying their own voters if that happened too in my opinion.

But unlike last time, they have announced they are prepared to go into coalition. Granted Mary Lou has moved the goalposts slightly in that she has demanded a border poll as part of going into coalition. But that can only be granted by UK Secretary of State, so I can't see what Martin could do about that other than meekly ask. I think the outcome of this election will force parties into making decisions on whether they put party or country first. It will be interesting.

[marty34]

Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Who's the SDLP canvassing for this election?

Eastwood's Fine Failure or Durkan's Fine Gael?  Both are two sides of the same coin!!

Ironic people talking about the economy and running the country when the children's hospital will be approx. £200 million, maybe more when completed, after what was the original cost - someone fill that figure in for me.

Oh yeah, they are great at economics alright.

Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

No lectures please on the economic ability of the big two.