26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

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What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

yellowcard

Quote from: Rossfan on January 19, 2020, 02:33:48 PM
I think that poll was done before the GE was called around the time of the RIC nonsense.
Hard to see the Shinners getting that percentage in a real election.

Well if that is the case then it's hard to see how FG will have clawed back any support since then, one faux pas after another. Leo does not look comfortable out meeting the general public unless it is a stage managed event with his own supporters present. If FG manage to lose this election then I reckon Simon Coveney will be waiting in the wings to take over. If FF lose it then Micheal Martin has to go, so the stakes are high. Don't think SF will poll at 19% either, the other parties will have plenty of ammunition on them which will be unleashed as the campaign goes on and things get dirtier.   

Itchy

Quote from: yellowcard on January 19, 2020, 01:27:03 PM
Latest poll which is the first carried out since December:

FF....................32%................+5
FG...................20%.................-7
SF...................19%..................-1
Green.............7%...................+1
Labour............4%...................-2
Ind Alliance.....3%...................+1
Other...............15%..................+3

That is some drop off for FG in the space of a month, their campaign has got off to a disastrous start. The Black and Tans episode, the homeless man getting hit by a forklift in a tent and the Drogheda feud will all have played a part. This particular government have relied a lot on spin doctoring and PR but people are starting to see through the bull and are judging them on their actual record on health, homelessness and crime which is brutal. I'm not surprised that FF are ahead in the polls but I am surprised at just how far because it is not down to Micheal Martin's leadership or direction but simply because FG have shot themselves in the foot and FF are seen as the only other viable alternative. Are people ready for another FF led government, it would be some form of redemption long before many people would have anticipated it a few years back. 

Both parties have already ruled out government with SF so really SF are just playing for how many seats they can gain whilst the continued decline of the Labour party is the other big talking point.

Agree Michael Martin is one of the most spineless politicians I've ever come across and is not a leader by any stretch of the imagination. I dont agree on SF just going to win seats as coalition is ruled out - that will never be known until we see how the cards fall after the election.

weareros

On that poll Fianna Fáil will easily lead next government. But I would not trust if it was done over phone or in-person as during height of Tans controversy, people would be downright embarrassed about saying they were supporting Fine Gael, but the same people who had record money to spend over Christmas in the privacy of polling booth will be mé fein. That is how American pollsters had Hilary so far ahead and got shock of lives when Trump got elected. Would still expect FG to fare badly but it is hard to see people give such a resounding victory to FF. Poor reflection on Mary Lou that they can't make hay of anti government sentiment.

armaghniac

Quote from: weareros on January 19, 2020, 05:56:24 PM
Poor reflection on Mary Lou that they can't make hay of anti government sentiment.

SF only aim to attract votes from people with the chip on their shoulder, who think that the government is someone else doing something to them. For all their "republicanism" they haven't really bought into the idea that everyone has to contribute to the Republic as well as expecting something from it.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

manfromdelmonte

Mary Lou is not liked by most floating voters down here

trailer

If you want to vote left wing in ireland just vote Labour. Why vote for SF? A party of thugs and loonies.

Itchy

Quote from: trailer on January 19, 2020, 09:07:16 PM
If you want to vote left wing in ireland just vote Labour. Why vote for SF? A party of thugs and loonies.

Labour left wing. You know nothing if you think that lsd.

Lar Naparka

From my own vox pop, Fine Gael are in trouble. They were elected back in 2011 on the specific premise that they would tidy up the mess left by Fianna Fail and bring probity etc. back into government again.
They have failed miserably and many people have long memories.
Remember the water rates fiasco back in 2014. (I think it was 2014.)
A tsunami pf shite would submerge the country if we didn't all, like honest citizens, pony up and make Denis Desmond an ever richer man than he already was.
The ferocity of the popular backlash made them back off and , surprise, surprise, we have heard nothing since then about the urgent need for reform of our water supply and wastewater disposal. I am surprised at the number of people who feel sore about this attempted scam.
The €2.2 bn overrun in building the children's' hospital and the fact that nothing was done to find out who was guilty of this hasn't gone down well either.
Health, housing, homelessness and Harris were brought up by many I spoke to and the three Murphys came in for a lot of abuse also. If all that wasn't enough, the way Flanagan and Varadker tried to arrange a commemoration for the RIC was the last straw.
Personally speaking, I won't be voting FG but I haven't forgiven FF for what they did to the country either.
Martin is about as capable as Varadker and if he becomes Taoiseah, it will only be because he is slightly the lesser of two eejits.
Nil Carborundum Illegitemi

Rossfan

Either Leo or Micheál will be the next Taoiseach.
About the only question is will it be a Coalition or a Confidence/Supply thingy.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

armaghniac

Quote from: Lar Naparka on January 19, 2020, 10:38:38 PM
the ferocity of the popular backlash made them back off and , surprise, surprise, we have heard nothing since then about the urgent need for reform of our water supply and wastewater disposal. I am surprised at the number of people who feel sore about this attempted scam.

The water and wastewater still needs investment, but the pay nothing brigade reckon water falls for free so investing in it has not been a priority.
Quote
The €2.2 bn overrun in building the children's' hospital and the fact that nothing was done to find out who was guilty of this hasn't gone down well either.

Nobody is ever responsible in such cases.

Health, housing, homelessness and Harris were brought up by many I spoke to and the three Murphys came in for a lot of abuse also.

The 3 Murphys sounds like a comedy act, which is appropriate.

QuotePersonally speaking, I won't be voting FG but I haven't forgiven FF for what they did to the country either.
Martin is about as capable as Varadker and if he becomes Taoiseah, it will only be because he is slightly the lesser of two eejits.

I've come the conclusion that these people only try a bit at the start so all you can do is switch them around. It is a bit like house insurance, if you switch insurer from time to time then they give you better quotes.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

magpie seanie

Quote from: Rossfan on January 19, 2020, 11:08:42 PM
Either Leo or Micheál will be the next Taoiseach.
About the only question is will it be a Coalition or a Confidence/Supply thingy.

Sadly a depressing truth. As a nation we're institutionalised and addicted  to the FF/FG Punch and Judy show. Long past time we woke up and tried something different. It mightn't work either but you never know - it just might be better.

Itchy

My thinking on FF and FG is this

1) Varadker is a way more intelligent and astute politician than Martin. At least he says what he thinks even if i so not agree with many things he says. Martin has no opinion on anything and just wants to check which way the wind blows before deciding. He is ball-less.

2) Fine Gael politicians are on average more competent than their Fianna Fail counterparts.

3) I do not like FG idelogy at all and while I dont like FF much either, i would be closer to them than FG.

So basically, I will vote SF No 1 and I am really struggling after that.

five points

1) Varadkar opposed gay marriage and abortion when it was popular and profitable to do so. He is no better or worse than Micheal Martin.

2) The likes of Eoghan Murphy, Simon Harris, Richard Bruton and Regina Doherty are poor ads for the theory that Fine Gael politicians are on average more competent than anyone else.

3) Neither FG nor FF have any real ideology. See 1).

Hound

It'll be interesting to see how the odds move in the run-up to election day. At the moment, next Taoiseach is:

Martin 1/5
Varadker 3/1

Next government (need to have a Cabinet Minister to be part of the government, for the purposes of these odds:)

Fianna Fail/Green 6/1

FF/SD/Lab/Green 6/1

Fianna Fail/Independents 8/1

FG/Lab/SD/Green 10/1

FF/Green/Independents 10/1

FF/Lab/Green/Independents 11/1

FF/Lab/Green 12/1

Fine Gael/Fianna Fail 12/1

Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein 12/1

Fine Gael/Green 12/1

Fianna Fail Minority 14/1

FG/Green/Independents 14/1

Fine Gael/Independents 16/1

Fine Gael/Sinn Fein 18/1

Fianna Fail Majority 20/1

Fine Gael Minority 20/1

Fianna Fail/Labour 20/1

FG/Lab/Green/Independents 22/1

FG/Lab/Green 22/1

FF/Lab/Independents 22/1

Fine Gael/Labour 25/1



If I was to put a bet on where I think there's some value, I'd go with FG/Green or FG/Green/Independents

Hound

Quote from: armaghniac on January 19, 2020, 11:53:07 PM
The water and wastewater still needs investment, but the pay nothing brigade reckon water falls for free so investing in it has not been a priority.
Yep. Of course, the Greens were one of the strongest supporters of water charges.
Interesting that some of the strongest anti-water charge brigade feel the Greens are the best.
But they may change their mind again when the Greens bring in their new taxes. But as you call them, "the pay nothing brigade" always seem to assume that someone else should pay it for them.


Quote from: five points on January 20, 2020, 01:10:19 PM
1) Varadkar opposed gay marriage and abortion when it was popular and profitable to do so. He is no better or worse than Micheal Martin.

Never heard that before.
Can you provide a link to substantiate (presumably you didn't just fabricate it) ?