26 County General Election 2020

[Applesisapples]

The rank smell of hypocrisy emanating from the Southern establishment and unionists whose cherished states were born out of violence, murder and the threat of violence is sickening.

[Owenmoresider]

Can someone please dumb down how the voting system works. How are quotas decided upon, how are surplus votes distrubuted etc

Lets say, first preference votes in a 5 seat cons.

x has 12,200
y has 7,800
z has 7,400
a has 4,300
b has 3,600
c has 2,100
d has 1,700
e has 1,000
f has 670
g has 410
h has 200
I has 120

I'll explain it using two different examples.

Last time out in Roscommon the total valid poll was 45680, and three seats were available. Therefore you divide 45680 by four (the number of seats plus one) and added 1 to the divided figure, to ensure that four candidates could not possibly reach the quota, i.e. 45680 / 4 = 11420, add 1 = 11421.

In that first count Denis Naughten sailed home with 13936 votes, putting him over the quota by 2515. Therefore his surplus was to be distributed on the second count of 2515. To do this they would check all of Naughten's 13936 votes, see how many votes transferred to each of the other candidates, get their totals and divide it into 2515 to get the proportionate amount to be given to each in the second count. As Naughten was an Independent this vote scattered a little, with Fitzmaurice getting the most (1214), followed Hopkins and Murphy, with the rest receiving small transfers. The contentious aspect is what happens to the surplus votes, as I understand it the votes to be added to the other candidate's piles are taken at random, i.e. they'd take any 1214 of Naughten's No 1's that went No 2 Fitzmaurice and add them in a separate bundle on top of Fitzmaurice's pile.

If every one of Naughten's No 1's were transferable then Fitzmaurice would have got 48% of Naughten's No 2's, about 6727. However it is possible that Naughten got a few No 1's that were "plumpers", i.e. just 1 for him and no other preference. But so long as at least 2516 of Naughten's votes transferred at all then those plumpers would be irrelevant and a calculation would have to be made, unlike in the later example.

Next door in Sligo/Leitrim there were two different examples of how the surplus can work. On the 11th count the Leitrim FF candidate Paddy O'Rourke was eliminated, and his transfers of 6,083 were the 12th count. So his votes would have both a party transfer and a Leitrim/local transfer element. So that count went as follows:

MacSharry (FF, Sligo town) plus 1707, total 13227 (exceeding the quota of 12468)
Reynolds (FG, Leitrim) plus 1171, total 10092
Kenny (SF, Leitrim) plus 1323, total 9294
McLoughlin (FG, Sligo) plus 112, total 10167
Scanlon (FF, South Sligo) plus 1323, total 9145
MacManus (SF, Sligo) plus 48, total 7093

MacSharry was elected but his surplus of 759 would make no difference, as it couldn't elect anyone and MacManus was too far behind to catch Scanlon or Kenny. So he was eliminated and his votes distributed. As these were SF votes and added to by Sligo town left wing transfers then Kenny was going to be the obvious beneficiary, though McLoughlin and Scanlon could pick up some of the Sligo-minded votes here too:

Reynolds +85 total 10177
Kenny +4772 total 14066 (elected)
McLoughlin +362 total 10529
Scanlon +409 total 9554

So Kenny was elected with a surplus of 1598, and as this was higher then MacSharry's, and it was now down to two seats between the three remaining candidates, it was distributed. This is where the other example I mentioned above comes in. Because it is often the case that party transfers may go 1-2-3 and no further, and especially with SF votes, then there is a possibility in later counts that not all of the surplus is transferable for the reason below.

The Kenny surplus was counted by checking only the 4772 votes that he received from his running mate MacManus in order to exceed the quota, not all of his 14066 votes when he was elected as some might think. So they checked those 4772 votes and sure enough many didn't transfer any further, and as it happened the number that were transferable was less than 1598. So instead of doing a calculation of the votes received by each candidate and allocating the surplus proportionally, each vote that the remaining candidates got was effectively a whole vote, as follows:

Reynolds +139 total 10316
McLoughlin +381 total 10910
Scanlon +631 total 10185
Non transferable 447 - but in reality this was 3621 of the 4772 votes that didn't transfer, which meant that the candidates got 100% of the transfers that they actually got off that surplus. And as it was largely Sligo-based to begin with then Scanlon got most, with the added bonus of being FF rather than FG, and McLoughlin got a chunk too.

So the last count was to transfer the surplus MacSharry got of 759 from the first count listed above, which was the 1707 votes he obtained from his FF running mate in Leitrim. And so despite the fact that he trailed going into this count and had looked to be all but gone prior to O'Rourke's elimination, Scanlon was home and dry as these votes had already gone FF 1 FF 2, so they were almost certain to go No 3 as well:

Reynolds +101 total 10417
McLoughlin +21 total 10931
Scanlon +637 total 10822

Here the full 759 surplus was transferable which indicated that the bulk of those votes did continue past 1-2, so Scanlon could have got up to 1433 of the O'Rourke-MacSharry transfers out of the 1707 such votes. Reynolds as a Leitrim candidate did peel off some of those votes, but it wasn't enough to hold on, and with no other votes remaining to transfer McLoughlin and Scanlon were elected without reaching the quota.

It's a rather convoluted way of explaining it I know but this does hopefully show the different factors in how the counts can pan out.

[Rossfan]

Thats what I thought, the distrubution of the surplus done at random is a bit mad, better to do it on a pro rata basis. Thanks to both Mayo lads for the reply.

In the 6 counties, all votes are counted for transfers and weighted, so a candidate could get 345.5 votes transferred.
In the 26 counties this does not happen in general, but from the radio this moring it seems it does happen on the first count if a candidate exceeds the quota

That's right, the one exception to the random sample is exceeding the Quota on the 1st Count.

[Main Street]

Blueshirts are in for a bad day.

To hear the hysterics of Regina Doherty, on the radio this morning castigating Jim O'Callaghan (FF TD in Dublin) for defending the aul divil himself, Gerry Adams, in some case, just showed how desperate they now are.

They won't come third.......but they will lose between 10-15 seats. Hopefully that dreadful woman mentioned above is one of them

First and last time (I hope ) that I ever have to listen to the hysterics of mad dog Regina. What a totally dumb FG stroke.  I'd say McDowell did not put his hand up for that one

I thought Jim O'Callaghan FF did well, not just in explaining the objective role of legal services to complainants and to plaintiffs,  the rights of our citizens to have confidential legal advice, the pride "we" take in obtaining legal advice from political opponents, but also his restraint in delivering all that information to such an ignoramous.

[Rudi]

Brilliant Owenmoresider thanks

[Main Street]

If I wanted to have two votes counted for two candidates.
One is a profile candidate and the other  a neighbour standing on a local issue
I vote for the neighbour as nr1  and profile candidate nr 2

When my neighbour is eliminated, will my 2nd choice  be transferred to the profile candidate?

[five points]

If I wanted to have two votes counted for two candidates.
One is a profile candidate and the other  a neighbour standing on a local issue
I vote for the neighbour as nr1  and profile candidate nr 2

When my neighbour is eliminated, will my 2nd choice  be transferred to the profile candidate?

Yes, provided your nr2 choice is still in the race at that point.

[macdanger2]

Assuming FF lead the next govt, who will replace Coveney at Foreign Affairs?

Coveney has done a good job imo and will be a loss

[Rossfan]

Hopefully not Dilly O'Wee.
McGrath from Cork or Dara Colleary?

[Billys Boots]

Brilliant Owenmoresider thanks

+1, fair play. 

[weareros]

Assuming FF lead the next govt, who will replace Coveney at Foreign Affairs?

Coveney has done a good job imo and will be a loss

Have a feeling whoever it is (probably Dara) that Boris will turn the tables and we will see a customs border in Ireland. Could be a good thing if it brings forward a border poll (although Boris won't grant one), but likely we will be the big loser as EU loses their affection and decides a trade deal with UK is more important, especially given that the Irish people are about to make a big signal that Brexit is not as important as Leo or EU thought.

[yellowcard]

Assuming FF lead the next govt, who will replace Coveney at Foreign Affairs?

Coveney has done a good job imo and will be a loss

Coveney will undoubtedly be a loss, himself and Varadkar in fairness are two very capable politicians. His problem was the likes of Flanagan, Murphy & Harris and it was no coincidence that they were largely hidden away during the campaign. I can't think of too many great minds in FF that will make up a formidable front bench and I think it will need new politicians to emerge from the shadows. Micheal Martin has been at the front and centre of most of their campaign, a lot of their shadow ministers have not been very visible either.   

[weareros]

Assuming FF lead the next govt, who will replace Coveney at Foreign Affairs?

Coveney has done a good job imo and will be a loss

Coveney will undoubtedly be a loss, himself and Varadkar in fairness are two very capable politicians. His problem was the likes of Flanagan, Murphy & Harris and it was no coincidence that they were largely hidden away during the campaign.

Good point. I'd say Leo is kicking himself today that he did not lock Regina away too. D'oh.

[macdanger2]

Assuming FF lead the next govt, who will replace Coveney at Foreign Affairs?

Coveney has done a good job imo and will be a loss

Coveney will undoubtedly be a loss, himself and Varadkar in fairness are two very capable politicians. His problem was the likes of Flanagan, Murphy & Harris and it was no coincidence that they were largely hidden away during the campaign. I can't think of too many great minds in FF that will make up a formidable front bench and I think it will need new politicians to emerge from the shadows. Micheal Martin has been at the front and centre of most of their campaign, a lot of their shadow ministers have not been very visible either.

Agreed on Flanagan and Murphy but I think Harris is okay, the health dept is the most difficult job going and the sláintecare plan at least seems to have cross party support which is the right idea (whether it's the right plan or not remains to be seen)

[armaghniac]

Agreed on Flanagan and Murphy but I think Harris is okay, the health dept is the most difficult job going and the sláintecare plan at least seems to have cross party support which is the right idea (whether it's the right plan or not remains to be seen)

I actually have more sympathy for Murphy, as the decisions that led to these problems were made in the previous term and you cannot conjure up houses.
Health is difficult, but surely to God Harris could have ensured that number on trolleys did not actually increase?