China Coronavirus

[Hound]

I know someone who had it during March and they had a good level of antibodies built up and were donating blood.
Recently they were told that the antibodies are negligent now; that is after 6 months.
So that person can (presumably) get reinfected again.

It's a real ba$tard of a disease. Not sure how herd immunity could ever be built up if the antibodies disappear. Seems like until we have a vaccine we could maybe have 3 months of relative freedom followed by 1 month of lockdown, with this cycle ongoing.

It's an absolute hoor of a disease, and you definitely don't want to get it.

But antibodies isn't the only indicator of immunity, there's something else around T cells that can't be easily measured. While absolutely you can get re-infected, it does seem to be rare, and while there is evidence of some people getting a nastier dose when re-infected, most of the re-infections have been milder doses.

I think the main reason why herd immunity is not being deliberately followed anywhere is because too many people will die or suffer long term consequences to achieve it, if it's even achievable.

Europe is a disaster zone at the moment and more lockdowns are coming or already in place. I think a lot are seeing how well the lockdown in Melbourne worked. Even Germany about to announce restrictions and Sweden have recently put in more restrictions (albeit the Swedes use guidelines/rules rather than laws as that's generally enough for people over there to follow). 

[Angelo]

Why have you come back with the same argument again when I nor anyone else have dismissed people in these vulnerable sectors?

Also do you have stats to back this up at all? Real ones? I wouldn't imagine there are any.

There are two evils here. Which is the lesser? You would assume that the powers that be have considered the weighing up of pros and cons to this?

There is no understanding of when we will get a handle on this at all. That coupled with the already under resourced NHS is why there has been such a reaction to impose what a number of people would deem draconian measures. There needs to be something done. Is this absolutely right - perhaps not but at the minute it is a case of needs must.

Everyone knows the deaths have been overstated. You came back with an article to say they were ~1200 as opposed to ~1800 and it was ~33% excess deaths. I am not going to accuse you of discounting 1200 deaths despite the fact you keep accusing me of discounting vulnerable sectors with absolutely no basis for it but 1200 deaths and growing would kind of be a priority over economy I'd have thought.

I still, still, don't know what you are proposing? Let it rip? Lesser lockdowns? By all means lesser lockdowns IMO need to be considered or more targeted ones. To let it rip would just be ludicrous.

I'm coming back with the same argument because you and other continually dismiss the impacts of Lockdowns and excessive restrictions. Why don't we discuss that? Why are you consistently trying to steer the debate away from that? Is it because you think people who are domestic violence victims don't matter? People robbed of their livelihoods don't matter? Do you know there is a high correlation between financial problems and suicides? Why don't we discuss these matters and the impacts that lockdowns and excessive restrictions have on their own merits?

And here is another thing, who has mentioned let it rip here? You? Nobody else has mentioned a let it rip strategy apart from the people who seem to dismiss those who are vulnerable and impacted by lockdowns and excessive restrictions. If we wanted to let it rip we would do away with masks, social distancing, limited capacities, hand hygiene, working from home and all additional measures brought to curb its spread. Can you show me one incident of a poster looking for this here? One incident. There's a huge difference between letting it rip and learning to live with the virus and people are being extremely disingenuous here and trying to muddy the waters.


It's near 50% excess, recorded excess deaths were 1,200 -  1,709 Covid deaths so 509 extra Covid deaths were recorded above this number - 509/1200= 42.4%. So its likely that Covid deaths were overstated around 42% which is an extremely significant figure and probably a conservative in terms of the actual overstatement.

And how did these excess deaths continue over the course of the year, was it a case that Covid was taking months off people's lives rather than years? We'll find the answer out to that in time.

Assuming the powers that be make the right calls is not reassuring to me. You're asking me to trust the same people that created this mess in the first place by running down the health service.

[Angelo]

Mid Ulster now has the highest COVID positive rate in the north

Derry City and Strabane and Newry and Mourne are down one third in a week. with Mid Ulster up to a 7 day rate of 536.9.
The improvement in Derry has to offer some hope for other places, if every place could drop one third in a week then the pressure would be eased substantially.

The Derry City and Strabane rates were hardly sustainable though. It was in 1 in 10 of confirmed positive cases per population over a 7/14 day period. If that sustained itself you'd have herd immunity in a couple of months.

Explain this herd immunity thing to me please.

Sometime last week or the week before, Derry-Strabane were getting over 1k cases per 100k population over a 7/14 day period.

If that sustained itself for a 2/3 month period, the whole of Derry/Strabane is infected. That sort of sustainment is not realistic so of course the rise was going to start to taper off.

and this is purely because of "herd immunity" and nothing to do with a change in behaviours?

I don't get your point. What is it?

Those kind of daily figures that were happening in Derry/Strabane are simply not sustainable in the long term.

you mention herd immunity as its a given, I was just wondering what you think herd immunity is.

For clarity, you mentioned herd immunity, not me.

Herd immunity is what it says it is.

The point I made, if you bothered to read it is that the incidence rate in Derry Strabane was only going to go one way when it was over 1k per 100k population in a 7/14 day incidence rate. If it continued at that rate for 2-3 months there would be nobody left to infect so of course that rate was going to drop. That is hardly surprising.

No, you mentioned it first as I had highlighted.

It is what it is!!!   

Please read this;

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510

Tell me more about this study?

Of the 1,000 people tested - were these all people that had contracted Covid and in what time frame had they Covid?

Was it the same  people tested again in the second study?

[armaghniac]

Completely speculative. We know that it was slightly over 1% in Derry/Strabane a fortnight ago and that's only what the testing was picking up, it was likely much higher. Knock 1% off reported figures?

Change the figure to 2% if you wish, it doesn't affect my point.

Eh, that study in the south showed that Covid deaths exceeded excess death by 50%,

Lockdown may have reduced other deaths, from road accidents etc.

if we tested every single person that died for flu, how much of a rise do you think we would have with flu deaths every year?

We would have a similar figure, flu deaths are largely estimated from excess deaths.

Another assertive claim with absolutely no basis or foundation. How could you possibly know that? This is the problem with people like you propagating fear with misinformation.

The problem with "people like me" is that we actually refer to statistics and don't go along with nonsense.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-and-covid-19-related-deaths-in-northern-ireland-march-june-2020

You're the one making assertive claims without any foundation and only spreading your own biases. I'm the one trying to get people to look at the bigger picture. So spare me your misplaced arrogance.

All my claims are founded in reality, I appreciate that this is inconvenient for you and that fantasy has much more flexibilty.

[imtommygunn]

By all means lesser lockdowns IMO need to be considered or more targeted ones.

You keep coming back with the I haven't considered domestic abuse victims. That is absolute nonsense.

This keeping accusing people of not considering cancer victims, domestic abuse victims etc is nonsense. I don't accuse you of discounting

The ~33% was a stat I picked out of the article. My apologies but that was the May stat as opposed to the June one. I really think you are however making a point against your arguments by trying to make a point for your arguments.

Stop accusing people of not caring about these things. You have discounted significant excess deaths and called wave 1 an "outlier" when thousands upon thousands of people died. I don't accuse you of callousness etc - you just lose the run of yourself.

I do not know what you propose for lockdown. Write it down in a few bullet points if you could? There are multiple people who contribute here who seem to think you want to let it rip because you do not seem to clarify otherwise. That is because you haven't laid out what you actually think should be done. What do you actually think should be done here? Not a 10 page essay please. I am sure people would be happy to discuss if you laid it out and laid it out clearly. You have been asked time and time again by multiple people, not just me, so it's not like I am missing the point or your posts or the posts themselves.

[Angelo]

Completely speculative. We know that it was slightly over 1% in Derry/Strabane a fortnight ago and that's only what the testing was picking up, it was likely much higher. Knock 1% off reported figures?

Change the figure to 2% if you wish, it doesn't affect my point.

Eh, that study in the south showed that Covid deaths exceeded excess death by 50%,

Lockdown may have reduced other deaths, from road accidents etc.

if we tested every single person that died for flu, how much of a rise do you think we would have with flu deaths every year?

We would have a similar figure, flu deaths are largely estimated from excess deaths.

Another assertive claim with absolutely no basis or foundation. How could you possibly know that? This is the problem with people like you propagating fear with misinformation.

The problem with "people like me" is that we actually refer to statistics and don't go along with nonsense.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-and-covid-19-related-deaths-in-northern-ireland-march-june-2020

You're the one making assertive claims without any foundation and only spreading your own biases. I'm the one trying to get people to look at the bigger picture. So spare me your misplaced arrogance.

All my claims are founded in reality, I appreciate that this is inconvenient for you and that fantasy has much more flexibilty.

Change the figure to 2% if you wish, it doesn't affect my point.

It does, it doubles your initial forecast.

Lockdown may have reduced other deaths, from road accidents etc.

Or it may not have, it may also have increased other deaths.

We would have a similar figure, flu deaths are largely estimated from excess deaths.


And death totals in bad flu seasons in January in past years are broadly similar to death totals in April of this year.

The problem with "people like me" is that we actually refer to statistics and don't go along with nonsense.

You contended that Covid deaths did not exceed excess deaths in the north in the March to June, you attached a link which contains a number of further links. Are you actually able to substantiate your claim or are you just on a wing and prayer here?

All my claims are founded in reality, I appreciate that this is inconvenient for you and that fantasy has much more flexibilty.

That's clearly bullshit as you are making claims you simply cannot substantiate, I on the other hand am trying to look at the big picture.

[JoG2]

Derry ICU at max capacity right now.

[Angelo]

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-and-covid-19-related-deaths-in-northern-ireland-march-june-2020

Thanks to Armaghniac herer for this.

Our April death tolls when Covid deaths were rampant was actually less than our January 2018 deaths.

Jan 2018 deaths - 2,101
April 2020 deaths - 1,905

Does anyone care to take this for me? Would anyone dare speculate what caused so many deaths in Jan 2018?

This perhaps?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-42602394

[imtommygunn]

Outlier

So what is your plan? Come on.

[Angelo]

Outlier

So what is your plan? Come on.

Outlier?

Which one - April 2020 or Jan 2018?

They are outliers, you are correct but can you explain them?

April 2020 figures seem to be in line with a bad flu season.

[johnnycool]

Mid Ulster now has the highest COVID positive rate in the north

Derry City and Strabane and Newry and Mourne are down one third in a week. with Mid Ulster up to a 7 day rate of 536.9.
The improvement in Derry has to offer some hope for other places, if every place could drop one third in a week then the pressure would be eased substantially.

The Derry City and Strabane rates were hardly sustainable though. It was in 1 in 10 of confirmed positive cases per population over a 7/14 day period. If that sustained itself you'd have herd immunity in a couple of months.

Explain this herd immunity thing to me please.

Sometime last week or the week before, Derry-Strabane were getting over 1k cases per 100k population over a 7/14 day period.

If that sustained itself for a 2/3 month period, the whole of Derry/Strabane is infected. That sort of sustainment is not realistic so of course the rise was going to start to taper off.

and this is purely because of "herd immunity" and nothing to do with a change in behaviours?

I don't get your point. What is it?

Those kind of daily figures that were happening in Derry/Strabane are simply not sustainable in the long term.

you mention herd immunity as its a given, I was just wondering what you think herd immunity is.

For clarity, you mentioned herd immunity, not me.

Herd immunity is what it says it is.

The point I made, if you bothered to read it is that the incidence rate in Derry Strabane was only going to go one way when it was over 1k per 100k population in a 7/14 day incidence rate. If it continued at that rate for 2-3 months there would be nobody left to infect so of course that rate was going to drop. That is hardly surprising.

No, you mentioned it first as I had highlighted.

It is what it is!!!   

Please read this;

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510

Tell me more about this study?

Of the 1,000 people tested - were these all people that had contracted Covid and in what time frame had they Covid?

Was it the same  people tested again in the second study?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-england-react/


Same people tested 3 times over a 3 month period.

[Angelo]

Mid Ulster now has the highest COVID positive rate in the north

Derry City and Strabane and Newry and Mourne are down one third in a week. with Mid Ulster up to a 7 day rate of 536.9.
The improvement in Derry has to offer some hope for other places, if every place could drop one third in a week then the pressure would be eased substantially.

The Derry City and Strabane rates were hardly sustainable though. It was in 1 in 10 of confirmed positive cases per population over a 7/14 day period. If that sustained itself you'd have herd immunity in a couple of months.

Explain this herd immunity thing to me please.

Sometime last week or the week before, Derry-Strabane were getting over 1k cases per 100k population over a 7/14 day period.

If that sustained itself for a 2/3 month period, the whole of Derry/Strabane is infected. That sort of sustainment is not realistic so of course the rise was going to start to taper off.

and this is purely because of "herd immunity" and nothing to do with a change in behaviours?

I don't get your point. What is it?

Those kind of daily figures that were happening in Derry/Strabane are simply not sustainable in the long term.

you mention herd immunity as its a given, I was just wondering what you think herd immunity is.

For clarity, you mentioned herd immunity, not me.

Herd immunity is what it says it is.

The point I made, if you bothered to read it is that the incidence rate in Derry Strabane was only going to go one way when it was over 1k per 100k population in a 7/14 day incidence rate. If it continued at that rate for 2-3 months there would be nobody left to infect so of course that rate was going to drop. That is hardly surprising.

No, you mentioned it first as I had highlighted.

It is what it is!!!   

Please read this;

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510

Tell me more about this study?

Of the 1,000 people tested - were these all people that had contracted Covid and in what time frame had they Covid?

Was it the same  people tested again in the second study?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-england-react/


Same people tested 3 times over a 3 month period.

a) Did all the people involved in the survey test positive for Covid at some point before the study?
b) At what point did the people involved test positive for Covid?

[Milltown Row2]

Ok Angelo your points are very valid and spot on. Now that we have established that can we get your plan on the following:

Reducing covid spikes
Reducing hospital admissions
Reduced staffing in hospitals

A general break down of how we can balance the current situation with the high number of abuse cases, the higher number of cancer treatments being left out, the millions of GP's patients missing appointments and so on..

Don't give me a question back please, just if you can solve the problem we have currently and back it up with stats that would apply for this place rather than a different country. Take into consideration our current poor health service with limited resources we've had that's historical

[Angelo]

Also on Covid deaths.

By age profile:

96% of deaths were 60 or over
93% of deaths were 65 or over
88% of deaths were 70 or over
80% of deaths were 75 or over
66% of deaths were 80 or over

Now that doesn't even take into consideration the underlying health conditions.

Covid is the listed cause of death of 38 people under the age of 60 to August this year not withstanding underlying health conditions of these people and the fact we know that Covid deaths are overstated.

At what point do we look at this data and say the consequences of lockdowns are of far greater concern than that.

[Angelo]

Ok Angelo your points are very valid and spot on. Now that we have established that can we get your plan on the following:

Reducing covid spikes
Reducing hospital admissions
Reduced staffing in hospitals

A general break down of how we can balance the current situation with the high number of abuse cases, the higher number of cancer treatments being left out, the millions of GP's patients missing appointments and so on..

Don't give me a question back please, just if you can solve the problem we have currently and back it up with stats that would apply for this place rather than a different country. Take into consideration our current poor health service with limited resources we've had that's historical

Spikes are going to happen, we just have to ride it out.

The deaths were interesting. We had 2,101 in Jan 2018. I mentioned it on this very thread a few weeks back. I had the Aussie flu in 2018, it was a bad dose that had me in bed for close to a week and took a few months to get back to 100%. Now what could explain such a death spike in Jan 2018 do you think? Did we shut down society? No.

We have social measures in place now, bars aren't the same, restaurants aren't the same, sporting events aren't the same, weddings aren't the same, working isn't the same, entertainment isn't the same, retail oulets aren't the same. We have masks, social distancing, hand hygiene, limited capacities, working from home to counter Covid - we stick with that for however long we need to but what do we think will happen when we come out of Lockdown this time - cases remain low? Not going to happen, they'll rise again to similar levels and we're back to square one. We try and ride this out and we puts resources and money into the health service in an expedient manner. It is priority number and it's a huge failure of government it wasn't adequately addressed first time around.

But we need to get on with life, conscious of Covid and keep drilling that message home.