China Coronavirus

[thewobbler]

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

I'd like them to do this. Science is a much more noble pursuit when there is an admission of weakness. Being the smartest epidemiologist in the world still doesn't make you a soothsayer.

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Does that change everything? Are we actually in the 2nd wave right now....we just know what we are dealing with....

Extremely unlikely.


You've all seen the jump in fatalities within both countries and cities far above the averages for that time of year.

There is no way such a jump - particularly given no active measures to prevent spread were ongoing - would have flew under the radar.


Now - if you said to me there was a version running around in December and has since mutated into a more deadly form - I'd be much more likely to believe that.

[johnnycool]

So France's first fatal case was now confirmed in December 2019.

Long before this thread started, which is actually in relieving and worrying at the same time. If it was in France in December, it could easily have been in Ireland, you'd be foolish to think otherwise considering what we are told is the contagious nature of this particular virus.

Does that change everything? Are we actually in the 2nd wave right now....we just know what we are dealing with....

We need the antibody test.

And we also need to know if immunity from having CV-19 after having it is a thing and if so how long will this immunity last.

Still nothing conclusive on this AFAIK.

[RadioGAAGAA]

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

What the f**k wobbler.

Have you went american for a moment there fighting for freedumb?


Do you really not think that death rates had f**k all to do with the measures taken against? If not, explain Lombardy to me, or new york.


It is a thought train like your post that will have the outcome you note:

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

Viruses exhibit EXPONENTIAL growth. Do you understand what that means? You can't f**k about and have everything down to 5 sigma - by that stage everyone has already died.

The politicians (here and abroad) already dithered too long and held off shutting down travel for too long. Which then made the job of eradication all but impossible.

[armaghniac]

In my own workplace, in December I remember a lot of sickness - so much so, the coughing and spluttering looking back now was really very obvious that it could well have been this - at the time it was put down to 'a bad oul flu going round'....I'm sure a few of you looking back might remember something similar.

It isn't at all obvious. I'm sure there were people sneezing and coughing just as much in the previous December. If people were in the workplace and not in bed then they had a corona virus, i.e. the common cold.

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

I'd like them to do this. Science is a much more noble pursuit when there is an admission of weakness. Being the smartest epidemiologist in the world still doesn't make you a soothsayer.

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

There could be a worse virus, but this one is bad enough. It isn't so bad in most places because measures were taken, Wuhan, Lombardy and New York show the danger of delaying these measures. There may be a recession, but I don't expect someone to die to support my standard of living.

[trailer]

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

I'd like them to do this. Science is a much more noble pursuit when there is an admission of weakness. Being the smartest epidemiologist in the world still doesn't make you a soothsayer.

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

WHO - failed
CMOs - failed
UK Government - failed
Stormont - failed
Dublin - failed

Scientists definitely a lot to answer for.

[Maiden1]

In my own workplace, in December I remember a lot of sickness - so much so, the coughing and spluttering looking back now was really very obvious that it could well have been this - at the time it was put down to 'a bad oul flu going round'....I'm sure a few of you looking back might remember something similar.

It isn't at all obvious. I'm sure there were people sneezing and coughing just as much in the previous December. If people were in the workplace and not in bed then they had a corona virus, i.e. the common cold.

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

I'd like them to do this. Science is a much more noble pursuit when there is an admission of weakness. Being the smartest epidemiologist in the world still doesn't make you a soothsayer.

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

There could be a worse virus, but this one is bad enough. It isn't so bad in most places because measures were taken, Wuhan, Lombardy and New York show the danger of delaying these measures. There may be a recession, but I don't expect someone to die to support my standard of living.

Poverty kills.  Compare the life expectancy of a person living in any inner city in the UK with high unemployment to a more affluent area and the average life expectancy can be down by as much as 10 years.  Mental health issues, depression, high alcohol and drug use, poor diet etc. are all synonymous with areas of high unemployment.

[GetOverTheBar]

In my own workplace, in December I remember a lot of sickness - so much so, the coughing and spluttering looking back now was really very obvious that it could well have been this - at the time it was put down to 'a bad oul flu going round'....I'm sure a few of you looking back might remember something similar.

It isn't at all obvious. I'm sure there were people sneezing and coughing just as much in the previous December. If people were in the workplace and not in bed then they had a corona virus, i.e. the common cold.

Not really, you can have this coronavirus and be perfectly fine. The French case is interesting because it suggests that everything we know about the virus has changed and indeed it could have mutated thus for the worse causing the second wave of what we now know is Covid 19. Meaning a first wave may have passed without us even knowing.

In December the thought of this being in Europe was fanciful at best. Now we are learning that certainly one person has tested positive for it (so obviously alot more had it). So it beggars the question, was Covid 19 responsible for deaths before we thought it was an 'issue'? If so, just how long (time wise) has this spread? It's very interesting.

[imtommygunn]

Interestingly on that topic a friend of mine put that on twitter and there was a fella replied who has a sister who is in a bad way with COVID(frontline worker). He said she told him she had the worst flu she ever had in December and now she has got the virus too.

Hard to know what to think on it.

[seafoid]

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

I'd like them to do this. Science is a much more noble pursuit when there is an admission of weakness. Being the smartest epidemiologist in the world still doesn't make you a soothsayer.

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

WHO - failed
CMOs - failed
UK Government - failed
Stormont - failed
Dublin - failed

Scientists definitely a lot to answer for.

Tail risk is like that Trailer. Nobody is ready for it. 2008 was the same.

[thewobbler]

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

What the f**k wobbler.

Have you went retarded american for a moment there fighting for freedumb?


Do you really not think that death rates had f**k all to do with the measures taken against? If not, explain Lombardy to me, or new york.


It is a retarded thought train like your post that will have the outcome you note:

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

Viruses exhibit EXPONENTIAL growth. Do you understand what that means? You can't f**k about and have everything down to 5 sigma - by that stage everyone has already died.

The politicians (here and abroad) already dithered too long and held off shutting down travel for too long. Which then made the job of eradication all but impossible.

I think you're determined to miss my point here Radio.

Was Covid real? Yes.
Did it do damage? Yes.
Did closing down the economy help abate it's spread? Yes.

Nobody will deny these things.


But scientists were exceptionally quick and forceful to try to convince us that a virus they still do not understand was a global destroyer; the Spanish Flu Mark II. It's not. Nor is it going to be. Nor would it have been if left unchecked. Scientists do not get to play these cards on a whim, and they've just gone all in on a low pair.

That it has been on the loose in Europe since December comes as no surprise. In fact I'd be surprised if it wasn't around for much longer than that.

I'm sure someone somewhere will come back to me with half arsed, dubious and red-penned data to "prove" I'm wrong. All I have is little pieces of clear evidence. Such as that a Tory government which is pilloried by all and sundry for its approach, yet still doesn't need an overflow hospital in its largest and most diverse city.


Anyhow the point being, just in case you miss it again. The scientific community over blew this one. And then some. And then some more. We will likely regret it.

[trailer]

If Covid continues to follow its current course, then somewhere along the line, scientists (and their cult like followers) are going to have to admit they misjudged this one, and maybe indeed watched Contagion one time too many.

I'd like them to do this. Science is a much more noble pursuit when there is an admission of weakness. Being the smartest epidemiologist in the world still doesn't make you a soothsayer.

The problem we all though face is that it's going to take a long time before governments will unilaterally trust the opinion of scientists again, and if this recession hits as expected, it's going to take generations before the general population would allow them to. With the problem of course being that should a proper Spanish Flu type virus emerge in the meantime, it will be extraordinarily destructive.

Scientists (and their cult like followers) would do well to recall the boy who cried wolf. We all learn it in primary school for a very good reason.

WHO - failed
CMOs - failed
UK Government - failed
Stormont - failed
Dublin - failed

Scientists definitely a lot to answer for.

Tail risk is like that Trailer. Nobody is ready for it. 2008 was the same.

Should have been. No excuse.
Because the measures that we took were delayed and only half arsed the peak has been longer and more people have died than was should have. They quite possibly could destroy a strong economy for many years.
Now the only way forward is to immediately relax restrictions and get everyone back to work. Trying to contain or eradicate this virus is pointless. We must learn to live with it.

[OgraAnDun]

Having a look at the increased death tolls per country and city, even with lockdowns, it seems fair to me to say that without pretty radical measures this has the potential to be an incredibly serious "Spanish flu like" disease. The excess mortality numbers for London for April 2020 (compared to a normal April) were worse than during the worst 4 week period of the Blitz, according to figures from the FT.


The fact that death rates only started jumping in line with registered Covid deaths a lot later than December I think debunks the myth that this was circulating in Europe freely in December. The number of deaths for pneumonia was actually below its 5 year average in the U.K. for the first few months of the year.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1257589774648565760?s=21

[trailer]

Having a look at the increased death tolls per country and city, even with lockdowns, it seems fair to me to say that without pretty radical measures this has the potential to be an incredibly serious "Spanish flu like" disease. The excess mortality numbers for London for April 2020 (compared to a normal April) were worse than during the worst 4 week period of the Blitz, according to figures from the FT.


The fact that death rates only started jumping in line with registered Covid deaths a lot later than December I think debunks the myth that this was circulating in Europe freely in December. The number of deaths for pneumonia was actually below its 5 year average in the U.K. for the first few months of the year.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1257589774648565760?s=21

And what? That's an absolutely f**king stupid comparison. Can you compare the death rate on the titanic to Covid-19 please? Like f**k me.

[Smurfy123]

Ogra the mortality rate has been officially confirmed at 0.26 so for every 1000 people that get infected 2.6 people die from it.
I think when scenes came out of Italy everyone around Europe started to panic
Now New Zealand not Australia would have seen the over played scenes from Italy. What did they do? Get on top of it. New Zealand NO new cases this past 2 days.
The virus was in France in December
Work that one out