Brexit.

[Franko]

I honestly don't think it will fully dawn on people the implications until they physically see the border posts and customs being erected and by then it will be too late. Tens of thousands of people travelling across an invisible border freely each day all of a sudden interrupted by the decisions taken by pro Brexit little Englanders. Enda Kenny needs to get his finger out and stop acting like the lame duck that he often is when engaging with foreign dignatories. The economic consequences for the country will plummet otherwise, and that's not to mention a renewed threat of terror as the island comes to terms with the fact that barriers are to be re-erected.   

In fairness to Enda Kenny I think he is alert to the danger and is certainly talking to people, he being off in Poland today. The question will the people of the 6 counties make any effort to save the GFA, will they get off their arses and vote for a pro GFA party in the election for instance? Will they demonstrate? George Mitchel is in QUB shortly, why is he not addressing 100,000 people?

Because the country is full of idiots who think either;

a. It'll still never happen
b. It'll happen but it will be diluted so much as to be barely noticeable
c. It'll happen and everything will still be OK (the 'nobody's getting shot' argument)
d. I can't wait for it to happen because I'm sick of Britannia not ruling the waves and am fed up looking at those muslims when I go to the shops

Better than that, we have people being criticised for placing stock in the opinions of experts on the subject.  The trumpites are out in full force and are bringing their anti-intellectual agenda with them.

This is the biggest single thing to happen this place since the GFA, only I fear it may have an opposite effect.

[thewobbler]

It is also full of people - some of whom no doubt are idiots - who have become sick and tired of the relentlessly condescending and pious absolutism, which has been a constant accompaniment to the "stay" side of the debate.

This stance isn't Trumpite, and it's certainly not anti-intellectual.

Nor is it not born from a wish to ignore expertise. Instead it comes from a desire to evaluate whether the current status quo is necessarily the best way forward.

Personally I find it abhorrent that anyone could possibly believe they have all the answers, or that this can be boiled down to a Star Wars style confrontation of "good" vs "evil". That there are pockets of independent countries dotted all around the EU, some of them with aspirational economies, and some less so, should surely tell anyone that being part of a single union isn't a magic wand.

So I guess I'm happy to be described as an "idiot"... so long as it's accepted that I'm an idiot with an open mind.

---

See Rossfan's latest post (about 10 above) for an example of what I'm describing.

He has consigned his future to a horrendous dystopia with extraordinary unemployment, the re-engagement of a bloody civil war, and the building of a physical wall across our small island.

FFS, why not the potato famine while we're at it?

[armaghniac]

It is also full of people - some of whom no doubt are idiots - who have become sick and tired of the relentlessly condescending and pious absolutism, which has been a constant accompaniment to the "stay" side of the debate.

This stance isn't Trumpite, and it's certainly not anti-intellectual.

Nor is it not born from a wish to ignore expertise. Instead it comes from a desire to evaluate whether the current status quo is necessarily the best way forward.

Personally I find it abhorrent that anyone could possibly believe they have all the answers, or that this can be boiled down to a Star Wars style confrontation of "good" vs "evil". That there are pockets of independent countries dotted all around the EU, some of them with aspirational economies, and some less so, should surely tell anyone that being part of a single union isn't a magic wand.

So I guess I'm happy to be described as an "idiot"... so long as it's accepted that I'm an idiot with an open mind.

---

The broader issue may have pros and cons, the main thing you can say is that there have been many lies on the pro side and many people who justify the process by reference to reasons which are not based on facts.

The specific issue is Britain pursuing policies as if it was an island, and applying them to NI which shares an island and overthrowing a successful peace settlement which had established the principle of consultation and consensus, however imperfectly implemented. The latter is not a good thing whatever way you look at it. 

[No wides]

See Rossfan's latest post (about 10 above) for an example of what I'm describing.

He has consigned his future to a horrendous dystopia with extraordinary unemployment, the re-engagement of a bloody civil war, and the building of a physical wall across our small island.

FFS, why not the potato famine while we're at it?

Brexit is a godsend for Tossfan and Seafood, whipping themselves up into a frenzy with no evidence.  FFS Brexit is unique how these people know what will happen is amazing.  They must make a fortune on the stock market.

[Rossfan]

I want my children to grow up in an open broadminded outward looking forward thinking country with the 6/26 Boundary,  if it still exists, being just a line on a map.
Meanwhile Ukipites and their fellow travellers in the DUP, various shades of Conservatives all try to re create their version of 1950s Britain - narrow minded, xenophobic, backward thinking etc which will inevitably reinforce the border in my country.
Wait till No brains and wobbler get held up for an hour at a customs/immigration checkpoint on their way to the AI Final.
It will be 2 hours going home as some British immigration official takes an hour to understand how someone from the 6 Cos has an "Eire"/EU passport.
Losing the run of myself?
No - see how the Brits didn't pass a single amendment or take any heed if the unique circumstances of the 6 Cos.
It's full steam ahead.........

[thewobbler]

It is also full of people - some of whom no doubt are idiots - who have become sick and tired of the relentlessly condescending and pious absolutism, which has been a constant accompaniment to the "stay" side of the debate.

This stance isn't Trumpite, and it's certainly not anti-intellectual.

Nor is it not born from a wish to ignore expertise. Instead it comes from a desire to evaluate whether the current status quo is necessarily the best way forward.

Personally I find it abhorrent that anyone could possibly believe they have all the answers, or that this can be boiled down to a Star Wars style confrontation of "good" vs "evil". That there are pockets of independent countries dotted all around the EU, some of them with aspirational economies, and some less so, should surely tell anyone that being part of a single union isn't a magic wand.

So I guess I'm happy to be described as an "idiot"... so long as it's accepted that I'm an idiot with an open mind.

---

The broader issue may have pros and cons, the main thing you can say is that there have been many lies on the pro side and many people who justify the process by reference to reasons which are not based on facts.

The specific issue is Britain pursuing policies as if it was an island, and applying them to NI which shares an island and overthrowing a successful peace settlement which had established the principle of consultation and consensus, however imperfectly implemented. The latter is not a good thing whatever way you look at it. 

While I don't actually disagree with you, can you actually blame Britain's politicians for carrying out the will of the people?

Things will change in NI.

But not necessarily for the worst.

There's an opportunity to make money from being a border region. Always was, always will be. as long as you sat fouced on the opportunity that is. Stay focused on the threats and of course they won't be long manufacturing themselves.

[thewobbler]

I want my children to grow up in an open broadminded outward looking forward thinking country with the 6/26 Boundary,  if it still exists, being just a line on a map.
Meanwhile Ukipites and their fellow travellers in the DUP, various shades of Conservatives all try to re create their version of 1950s Britain - narrow minded, xenophobic, backward thinking etc which will inevitably reinforce the border in my country.
Wait till No brains and wobbler get held up for an hour at a customs/immigration checkpoint on their way to the AI Final.
It will be 2 hours going home as some British immigration official takes an hour to understand how someone from the 6 Cos has an "Eire"/EU passport.
Losing the run of myself?
No - see how the Brits didn't pass a single amendment or take any heed if the unique circumstances of the 6 Cos.
It's full steam ahead.........

I was a child who grew up in a border town with a civil war taking place around that border.

These 1 hour queues are not something I remember, even though there were technically 4 checkpoints on main roads. Those who have something to hide don't tend to use main roads. Nobody is daft enough to believe otherwise.

As for your comments on England going back to the 1950s. All those working class Northern England towns didn't have a rosy 1950s. But that generation had more disposable income simply because their wage was worth more than their expenses. Their descendants feel failed by government for not protecting their interests. I could point out that immigrants who are prepared to do semi skilled and trade labour for wages from the 1990s - while living in a what can only be described as relative squalor for one of the most developed countries in the world - might actually be a contributing factor behind this wage disparity. You'll no doubt call it racist to bring this up. Go for it, idon't mind. I just hope your children can afford their parent's houses.

[seafoid]

I want my children to grow up in an open broadminded outward looking forward thinking country with the 6/26 Boundary,  if it still exists, being just a line on a map.
Meanwhile Ukipites and their fellow travellers in the DUP, various shades of Conservatives all try to re create their version of 1950s Britain - narrow minded, xenophobic, backward thinking etc which will inevitably reinforce the border in my country.
Wait till No brains and wobbler get held up for an hour at a customs/immigration checkpoint on their way to the AI Final.
It will be 2 hours going home as some British immigration official takes an hour to understand how someone from the 6 Cos has an "Eire"/EU passport.
Losing the run of myself?
No - see how the Brits didn't pass a single amendment or take any heed if the unique circumstances of the 6 Cos.
It's full steam ahead.........

I was a child who grew up in a border town with a civil war taking place around that border.

These 1 hour queues are not something I remember, even though there were technically 4 checkpoints on main roads. Those who have something to hide don't tend to use main roads. Nobody is daft enough to believe otherwise.

As for your comments on England going back to the 1950s. All those working class Northern England towns didn't have a rosy 1950s. But that generation had more disposable income simply because their wage was worth more than their expenses. Their descendants feel failed by government for not protecting their interests. I could point out that immigrants who are prepared to do semi skilled and trade labour for wages from the 1990s - while living in a what can only be described as relative squalor for one of the most developed countries in the world - might actually be a contributing factor behind this wage disparity. You'll no doubt call it racist to bring this up. Go for it, idon't mind. I just hope your children can afford their parent's houses.

Companies have paid bonuses instead of payrises for years. Immigration was used to.keep wages low.

[No wides]

I want my children to grow up in an open broadminded outward looking forward thinking country with the 6/26 Boundary,  if it still exists, being just a line on a map.
Meanwhile Ukipites and their fellow travellers in the DUP, various shades of Conservatives all try to re create their version of 1950s Britain - narrow minded, xenophobic, backward thinking etc which will inevitably reinforce the border in my country.
Wait till No brains and wobbler get held up for an hour at a customs/immigration checkpoint on their way to the AI Final.
It will be 2 hours going home as some British immigration official takes an hour to understand how someone from the 6 Cos has an "Eire"/EU passport.
Losing the run of myself?
No - see how the Brits didn't pass a single amendment or take any heed if the unique circumstances of the 6 Cos.
It's full steam ahead.........

I was a child who grew up in a border town with a civil war taking place around that border.

These 1 hour queues are not something I remember, even though there were technically 4 checkpoints on main roads. Those who have something to hide don't tend to use main roads. Nobody is daft enough to believe otherwise.

As for your comments on England going back to the 1950s. All those working class Northern England towns didn't have a rosy 1950s. But that generation had more disposable income simply because their wage was worth more than their expenses. Their descendants feel failed by government for not protecting their interests. I could point out that immigrants who are prepared to do semi skilled and trade labour for wages from the 1990s - while living in a what can only be described as relative squalor for one of the most developed countries in the world - might actually be a contributing factor behind this wage disparity. You'll no doubt call it racist to bring this up. Go for it, idon't mind. I just hope your children can afford their parent's houses.

Companies have paid bonuses instead of payrises for years. Immigration was used to.keep wages low.

All companies?  This is some inside knowledge you have - oh wait you just make everything up.

[No wides]

I want my children to grow up in an open broadminded outward looking forward thinking country with the 6/26 Boundary,  if it still exists, being just a line on a map.
Meanwhile Ukipites and their fellow travellers in the DUP, various shades of Conservatives all try to re create their version of 1950s Britain - narrow minded, xenophobic, backward thinking etc which will inevitably reinforce the border in my country.
Wait till No brains and wobbler get held up for an hour at a customs/immigration checkpoint on their way to the AI Final.
It will be 2 hours going home as some British immigration official takes an hour to understand how someone from the 6 Cos has an "Eire"/EU passport.
Losing the run of myself?
No - see how the Brits didn't pass a single amendment or take any heed if the unique circumstances of the 6 Cos.
It's full steam ahead.........

I was a child who grew up in a border town with a civil war taking place around that border.

These 1 hour queues are not something I remember, even though there were technically 4 checkpoints on main roads. Those who have something to hide don't tend to use main roads. Nobody is daft enough to believe otherwise.

As for your comments on England going back to the 1950s. All those working class Northern England towns didn't have a rosy 1950s. But that generation had more disposable income simply because their wage was worth more than their expenses. Their descendants feel failed by government for not protecting their interests. I could point out that immigrants who are prepared to do semi skilled and trade labour for wages from the 1990s - while living in a what can only be described as relative squalor for one of the most developed countries in the world - might actually be a contributing factor behind this wage disparity. You'll no doubt call it racist to bring this up. Go for it, idon't mind. I just hope your children can afford their parent's houses.

Waste of time wobbler, Tossfan read a few articles about Northern Ireland during the troubles and is now an expert on all things in the North, he was up educating the Tyrone folk last week on how to get a United Ireland through PR voting!!

[seafoid]

I want my children to grow up in an open broadminded outward looking forward thinking country with the 6/26 Boundary,  if it still exists, being just a line on a map.
Meanwhile Ukipites and their fellow travellers in the DUP, various shades of Conservatives all try to re create their version of 1950s Britain - narrow minded, xenophobic, backward thinking etc which will inevitably reinforce the border in my country.
Wait till No brains and wobbler get held up for an hour at a customs/immigration checkpoint on their way to the AI Final.
It will be 2 hours going home as some British immigration official takes an hour to understand how someone from the 6 Cos has an "Eire"/EU passport.
Losing the run of myself?
No - see how the Brits didn't pass a single amendment or take any heed if the unique circumstances of the 6 Cos.
It's full steam ahead.........

The world seems to be entering a beggar my neighbour phase. The UK attitude to EU residents is an example.

[seafoid]

The 2 key selling points of Brexit were

1. 350m for the NHS
2 Control migration

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/10/brexit-will-cause-vanishingly-small-fall-in-net-migration-report

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rh6qqsmxNs

[thewobbler]

The 2 key selling points of Brexit were

1. 350m for the NHS
2 Control migration

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/10/brexit-will-cause-vanishingly-small-fall-in-net-migration-report

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rh6qqsmxNs

Nope.

That's what the press decided to run with in an attempt to distill a multi-layered, trillion part picture into something that people could understand, then latch on to / turn against.

What people actually voted for was whether the UK would be better off as a single entity, or as part of a union of countries. There wasn't a magic line running through the country whereby those who voted "leave" had an inability to see a bigger picture at play.

While many of the "stay" diehards have managed to convince themselves that the vote was about racism, and that anyone who voted to leave is neanderthal racist with a negative IQ: that brush stroke argument says more about their own paranoid beliefs than it does about the voters in question.

[NAG1]

It was pretty simple as far as I can see it from and what I have read on the Brexit subject.

The Tories at the top end of the business/ earning scale, wanted the chance to enrich themselves further by leaving what they see is the restrictive union. They knew they couldnt get there on their own, so they drummed up the NHS and Immigration strands to the debate to scare the cant work/ wont work electorate out to vote.

So all those at the top and the bottom together squeezing the middle. Add this to the fact that Corbyn is completely incompetent and you have the perfect storm.

Always good to remind yourself in all of this and probably on most subjects the British government is going to be involved in, is that Theresa May's other half controls a hedge fund of approx £1.4trillion.

[Applesisapples]

Most opinions on Brexit must be based on supposition, as the final deal is not yet known. So anything I am going on to say is making the assumption that Mrs Thatch....er May means it when she says no customs union, the common travel area is something that can get around the movement of people.
No matter what way you look at it no customs union will mean the death knell for an all island economy and be especially hard on the Agri food sector which both jurisdictions see as a key industry. For instance about a third of NI's milk is processed in the ROI and turned into Irish Cheese to be exported to the EU (UK and beyond), after without a custom's union there will be a tariff making this milk more expensive and uncompetitive, aside from that EU rules as they stand would preclude any product made with this milk from being sold within the EU. NI's pork plants rely on ROI pigs to make them competitive, the lamb and beef sector rely on processors in the ROI to process a significant amount of their product. In short there is a lot of transfer of agri food products between both jurisdictions at various points of the process. It is hard to see how this is not a negative to both parties. On the retail side visitors from the ROI to NI will have the same constraints on goods that exist between Non EU and EU at present, including tariffs and bans on importing certain products and food stuffs. That is before we look at the special arrangement that allows Trump to give May one whenever he likes. That will see an influx of GM foods, hormone soaked beef and bleached chicken which even if banned from this island will still be a threat given that part of the Island is in the UK. So if this is scaremongering so be it but it is scenarios such as this that the DUP are saying bring it on too with out thought or plan. May does not give a stuff about Ireland north or south.